Peter van Onselen offers the following on internal polling in The Australian:
The Australian understands that Labor’s track polling shows its support is lifting in all states except Queensland, where the combinations of the toppling of Kevin Rudd (a local boy) and the deep unpopularity of the state government and Premier Anna Bligh are stifling support. The numbers suggest Labor could lose a host of seats in the Sunshine State. Attempts to arrest the decline include efforts by candidates to localise campaigns, along with sending Julia Gillard to Queensland for the early part of the campaign to break down the growing angst against her for tearing down an elected prime minister. Labor sources point out the irony is that during Rudd’s leadership, Queensland had been a problematic state where dissatisfaction with the job he was doing was high.
Perhaps surprisingly, the dip in support for Labor in Western Australia has been contained and a small upsurge has occurred. The same results have been seen in NSW on the strength of Labor’s changed border protection policy under Ms Gillard. The Coalition is facing financial constraints and is not doing anywhere near the amount of expensive track polling it did at the last election, or as much as Labor is doing now, according to one senior Liberal source. But the quantitative research the Coalition has done is said to have buoyed Tony Abbott and Brian Loughnane about their chances of a competitive result or even an upset victory. The Coalition is apparently tracking better in key marginal seats than published polls with wider samples such as Newspoll might suggest.
Around the grounds:
• Labor and the Greens have confirmed a preference deal in which the latter will receive Senate preferences across the country, and the former will get lower house preferences in 44 of 50 marginal seats. The Sydney Morning Herald reports local Greens in six seats have refused to abide by the deal: Lindsay and Gilmore in NSW, Herbert, Blair and Dawson in Queensland, and Sturt in South Australia.
• While Tony Abbott was having a rough ride in Melbourne, Julia Gillard spent the first weekday of the campaign targeting the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal member Peter Lindsay is retiring and redistribution has nudged the seat from super-marginal Liberal to super-marginal Labor. Gillard spent the visit spruiking the Better Regional Cities policy which was unveiled the on Sunday, which will commit $200 million to affordable housing in regional cities.
• The Australian’s Samantha Maiden and Dennis Shanahan have both written today of a slick and efficient early campaign performance from Labor’s media unit that is leaving the opposition in its wake. According to Maiden, “media organisations are being carpet-bombed by an ALP campaign unit on steroids that is racing out media alerts, audio files of Coalition gaffes and interview transcripts via the social networking site Twitter”. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal campaign headquarters will not be operational until today.
• The ABC reports police have ruled out a firearm being responsible for damage to the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for Hughes, with a slingshot deemed more likely.
blue green: the first questions put to him after his announcement were about the FWA stuff, and what legal advice had he received. That went on for about half a dozen questions before someone finally asked something different, and IIRC even that question wasn’t about the education rebate stuff. I wonder how it will be presented on tonight’s news.
[Nope according to the news the other night Kevvie was no where to be seen.]
TTH, You really are a goose. Forget about the news from the other night. Try reading today’s news instead.
[Rudd to begin Griffith campaign]
Rudd’s back in Brisbane
Rudd set to begin Griffith campaign. (ABC News)
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd will begin campaigning in his Brisbane seat of Griffith today….]
centaur:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/21/2959837.htm
confessions:
I think this will get a guernsey
From twitter.
[stefaniebalogh Tony Abbott playing catch with more than 100 frenzied school kids in Bowman. Unscripted 1 minute ago via mobile web ]
An extra $110 for primary school kids. Is that it???? he’s got to be joking
Psephos @ 836
[In my humble opinion, no Lib marginal in Vic is safe, except McMillan where I don’t think Broadbent is beatable.]
If the Liberals can currently afford to be doing any substantive marginal seat polling, perhaps their initial set of results shows a few of these seats as more than vulnerable, hence Abbott’s initial campaign focus in Melbourne?
Picking up a couple of seats in Queensland and perhaps NSW won’t do any good for the Coalition’s already slim electoral chances if these are offset by losses in Victoria and SA.
BH. I guess the one saving grace is that it was on ABC2’s morning show, which I doubt gets much viewership by swinging voters (they’d more likely be watching Today or that one on channel 7 with the animatronic mannequins.)
“Could never go past Gray Nicholls but always had an unusual soft spot for Duncan Fearnely.”
Agree there was something special about the Duncan Fearnely perhaps the scoop in the gray nicholls took away some of the power.
[Could never go past Gray Nicholls but always had an unusual soft spot for Duncan Fearnely.]
Stuart Surridge for me, just because I liked the look of them (and that Viv used them for a long time).
[I wonder how it will be presented on tonight’s news.]
confessions – it will be shown with Tone making the announcement and big smiles from him and Pyne. Anything else will probably be omitted.
I agree with Dee and many others that this debt issue needs to be addressed directly and soon. Disappointing to see no attempt by journalists to get Libs to explain the difference between their claims and the facts.
Re: Abbott’s parent bribe.
Hmmm, I can’t wait to see the smirk on Abbott’s face when he tells Australia that he’ll have to ditch that policy because it is “too costly”, but don’t worry, he has some new industrial laws instead…
Fair work act.
[464 Costs of protected action ballot conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission
(1) This section applies if the protected action ballot agent for a protected action ballot is the Australian Electoral Commission.
(2)The Commonwealth is liable for the costs incurred by the Australian Electoral Commission in relation to the protected action ballot, whether or not the ballot is completed.
(3) However, except as provided by regulations made for the purposes of subsection 466(1), the Commonwealth is not liable for any costs incurred by the Australian Electoral Commission in relation to legal challenges to matters connected with the protected action ballot.]
Abbott is screwed. 😛
If anyone wants to follwo the campaign on twitter but dont necessarily want to sign up. Here is the best way to do it.
Twitterers can create lists of other twitterers and by viewing those lists you can see what all of those people are saying. Anyone can view the lists, you dont need to sign up to twitter.
The best ones for the campaign come from the young radio journo Latika Bourke.
http://twitter.com/latikambourke/journalists
http://twitter.com/latikambourke/politicians
not really much point following the pollies though, they never say anything interesting.
[Hmmm, I can’t wait to see the smirk on Abbott’s face when he tells Australia that he’ll have to ditch that policy because it is “too costly”, but don’t worry, he has some new industrial laws instead…]
Should specify that one is after elected.
Socrates posted about the loss of a great climate change bloke. Many of them are probably nearing the same stage in their lives and it must be sad for them to find the discussion hasn’t moved on far enough.
It’s up to us to push heavily after this election is over. If Labor win they have to do something with the Greens. It hurts to think my grandkids will carry the burden more than we have.
[Stuart Surridge for me, just because I liked the look of them (and that Viv used them for a long time).]
I reckon Viv could have used a railway sleeper and he still would have starred.
I’ve had the radio on since 6am this morning and listened (at least in the backgroud) to ever single ABC radio news bulletin.
Every single one of them has started with:
(a) “The Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says…”
or
(b) “The Federal Opposition says…”
EVERY one.
The impression slow thinkers would get is that the Oppos are setting the entire agenda, leaving the big-spending, big-taxing governent scrabbling around behind them trying to catch up on the Oppos’s dynamic and policy-rich march towards inevitable victory.
“I agree with Dee and many others that this debt issue needs to be addressed directly and soon. Disappointing to see no attempt by journalists to get Libs to explain the difference between their claims and the facts.”
It is a simple ad and it leaves the Libs as just a bunch of blustering baffoons. it can also be turned into a positive for Labor as it reinforces the strenght of the economy and getting through the GFC. It must happen. at a minimum Swan should be out there with a megaphone stating the facts.
I reckon Viv could have used a railway sleeper and he still would have starred.
Or a cricket stump
[Agree there was something special about the Duncan Fearnely perhaps the scoop in the gray nicholls took away some of the power.]
the kookaburra bubble likewise
[I guess the one saving grace is that it was on ABC2’s morning show]
TSOP – yes, a very different audience to 7 and 9 and it showed in the response they got to the interview about Julia Gillard becoming overtired because she is a woman. The 2 responses I heard both were snarky about the assumption being made. I thought ‘yep, lots of business and working women won’t like that much’.
[Never campaign on your opponent’s issues. Every minute spent talking about your opponent’s issues is a minute lost from talking about your issues.]
What I am suggesting is that the ALP should not allow the Coalition to gain traction destroying their achievement.
The ALP should be proud of getting us through the GFC. Instead of going on the defensive about their record, they should openly promote it.
Sounds like this will be the leading news imagery today
[nickbutterly Abbott mobbed by kids at a school in queensland. Teachers don’t look happy. half a minute ago via Tweets60 ]
Current election debate on 774 ABC Melbourne: Whether Julie Bishop was flirting with Waleed Aly on Monday.
The youtube footage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3thN4QNtY0
The highpoint so far of tony’s campaign but I really wouldnt call it being mobbed.
Bushfire @ 1266,
I spent over ten hours driving yesterday through multiple states and ABC stations.
Every bulletin/news slot lead with “The Federal Oppostion says….”.
That’s at least 20 times I heard that.
Now, William has pointed out comments about how slick the ALP machine has been – surely at least a few of the bulletins should have been lead by an ALP talking point.
On the whole, the reports within were fair enough.
Breaking news:
[Julia Gillard is committed to moving Australia forward. Moving forward starts with a strong economy. Julia Gillard believes in a sustainable Australia, not a big Australia. Moving forward is also about better education.]
This is called staying on-message. We don’t talk about debt, batts, boats or any other distractions from our message. We talk about what we want to talk about. The hacks will ask about those things, and we will respond. But when we’re paying for airtime, we use it to say what we want to say.
AB used a Duncan Fearnley too in his later years. Bats have come on ridiculously though. They’re lighter these days by a far margin, the edges are ridiculously thick and for the most part they are cannons. Like they’re spring loaded nowadays.
So, Abbott has announced tax deductible school fees in full? Was that the announcement? Does that mean GPS-type fees, or am I mistaken about the announcement?
As for the debt issue, I would expect Gillard to deal with it in the debate frankly, in her usual direct and simple way. That may be a better vehicle than an ad, though if it persists why not run an ad I suppose.
Psephos said never campaign on the other side’s issues – I bow generally to those more in the know than me, but where did that get Bomber and Latham appropo the economy between 1998 and 2004?
The government has been given creedos for the handling of the GFC from emminent institutions and well known, well respected economists.
Use them to advantage. What is the Rabbott team going to do? Discredit them all. Pit their economic skills up against the best in the world?
“This is called staying on-message. We don’t talk about debt, batts, boats or any other distractions from our message. We talk about what we want to talk about. The hacks will ask about those things, and we will respond. But when we’re paying for airtime, we use it to say what we want to say.”
Ok a positive message about getting Aust through the GFC using economic stimulus saving 300k of jobs with record low govt debt vs Europe 22m unemployed US 40m unemployed and the record debt in those countries. That is a great message to sell to the electorate and the ALP has rocks in their head if they don’t drum it into their heads on a daily basis. The libs can’t handle the fact this country did not sink into recession and that is major achievement which will be recorded in the history books when the political history is written for this time.
[the interview about Julia Gillard becoming overtired because she is a woman. ]
That is an unbelievable segment – is it online somewhere? And what next? If Gillard has an off day they’ll claim it must be ‘that time of the month’?
Seriously the ABC is rushing headlong into the gutter with the commercials.
I think you’re missing something Psephos. Even advertising gurus are saying that Labor should be spruiking the positives of the GFC constantly in advertising.
Looks like Abbott is going to use his sporting prowess as much as possible with groups of schools kids who are at last sitting in nice classrooms and halls due to Julia Gillard. Labor vollies should have big banners at every school event that Tone does.
Probably telling all the little school kids today that they can join his Army as well.
[The libs can’t handle the fact this country did not sink into recession]
Yep. And I can guarantee that the Libs are praying hard to Mammon for an August interest rate rise, so they can use it as grounds for an attack on the government’s economic record.
It matters not if people are affected and some lose their homes. As long as they have an attack to throw at the government, that’s all that matters to them.
Good one confessions.
“Julia Gillard admits it was a mistake to declare war on Indonesia but asks for forgiveness from Indonesian people because she had PMS at the time”.
[Probably telling all the little school kids today that they can join his Army as well.]
“Start learning how to mine rocks, kids. Your days of bludging at school are numbered!”
Re my comment in 1283 . Not my views but I wonder if I will hear it in talkback land.
Pebbles – 1282,
Listening to radio all day, as I did yesterday, it is quite apparent that the LNP is not only hoping for a rate rise, their entire campaign is being built on it.
It’s their only shot at winning this.
A very high risk strategy – but it could work.
So Abbott has already spent the cuts he announced yesterday. The ETR increase is $1.2 billion over the forward estimates.
[That is an unbelievable segment – is it online somewhere? And what next? If Gillard has an off day they’ll claim it must be ‘that time of the month’?]
Any ills she has is because she hasn’t had babies and doesn’t have a husband. She doesn’t even have the Lord in her heart. I truly fear for her…
So when is Labor going to disendorse this idiot down in Flinders Mr. Schonfelder???
“Yep. And I can guarantee that the Libs are praying hard to Mammon for an August interest rate rise, so they can use it as grounds for an attack on the government’s economic record. ”
the govt should be on the front foot now hammering home relentlessly the strong economic management of this country for the reasons I have put. Relentlessly as a pre-emptive strike against any interest rate issue -albeit low. It is a massive positive for the ALP.
[Ok a positive message about getting Aust through the GFC using economic stimulus saving 300k of jobs with record low govt debt vs Europe 22m unemployed US 40m unemployed and the record debt in those countries. That is a great message to sell to the electorate and the ALP has rocks in their head if they don’t drum it into their heads on a daily basis. The libs can’t handle the fact this country did not sink into recession and that is major achievement which will be recorded in the history books when the political history is written for this time.]
thespectator – I reckon some of us should be doing ads. The one thing I detested about Beazley was his lack of gumption to stand up for Hawke and Keating’s record. He let Howard run all over him with it just the way Robb and Abbott are doing now. What business would not advertise its successes? Not one, I bet.
confessions – it was appalling. It was between 7.30 and 8.00 a.m I think between the female presenter (couldn’t be bothered to remember her name because she is so much into the Lib camp) and a bloke called Peter Wilkinson who used to produce the election debates for Ch9. It must be on the ABC2 Breakfast site somewhere.
Sorry but I’m not good at finding them.
Glen, they will disendorse him if it lasts one more day in the media. If they do it now it just gives it some more oxygen.
Glen, they will disendorse him if it lasts one more day in the media. If they do it now it just gives it some more oxygen.
FFS if someone in the Liberal Party said Gillard made people kill themselves they ought to be thrown out on the day!
If the media dont give this oxygen then they’re a bunch of gutless sods.
[A very high risk strategy – but it could work]
I think a lot of work has been done over the last year or so educating people since howard went that the reserve bank is beholding to no one.
Intellegent people have alwasy known that and now i think ones that never realy took a lot of notice realise to
If this is all they have in a time when interest rates have never been so low
well thats there problem
[Not my views but I wonder if I will hear it in talkback land.]
BH saw a segment on ABC television, presumably some ‘expert’. Did they counter with the obvious fact that Australia has had many women political leaders who have not only managed to embrace the slog of an election campaign with gusto, but have survived it to boot. As I said: racing into the gutter.
Well what did I say, there would be a solution or a court case.
[Dear fredn
This isn’t a normal GetUp email. I want to ask for your thoughts on an important legal decision that we need to make in the next 24 hours.
Up to half of all 18 year olds aren’t on the electoral roll. This election, it’s likely that hundreds of thousands of young Australians missed out on their chance to vote because our politicians haven’t changed the archaic enrolment system. In fact, Julia Gillard announced the election on Saturday and unregistered voters only had until Monday to enrol to vote. That’s not even enough time to post the application form!
It shouldn’t be like this – and we have an opportunity to launch a landmark court case to change it.
In the next 24 hours we have to decide whether to lodge a test case in the Federal Court that could make it possible for Australians to enrol online. If we win, we’ll have strengthened our democracy in a landmark victory. Even if we don’t, this case takes the issue of reforming Australia’s antiquated electoral laws from the courts to the national headlines, and onto the priority list of the next Government.
The lawyers are preparing the case, the documents are ready to file. But the legal system is a new arena for GetUp, and this court case has the potential to cost more than a normal GetUp campaign. So I need to know whether this is enough of a priority for you. I urgently need to know whether you support us going ahead. What’s your vote? ]
[‘Any ills she has is because she hasn’t had babies and doesn’t have a husband. She doesn’t even have the Lord in her heart. I truly fear for her…’]
She really is a member of the ‘Illuminati’ whose sole purpose is to end the reign of the pope and the catholic church. Dan Brown predicted something like this would happen