Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.
A bit of federal news:
• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).
• Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.
• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.
New South Wales news:
• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.
• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.
Psephos:
Why doesn’t the NSW parliament just expel Lee Rhiannon?
[you have inspired me to have another go. thanks for that]
No probs.
Yeah, I just swim a few laps at my pace. I’ll never be good enough for the Olympics or anything. Just that feeling of zen, as your head’s under water and every little thought that runs in your head normally disappears for a short while is bliss.
Although I get very sore eyes from the chlorine. I should invest in goggles.
Will Julia go to see the GG next week for a 21st election or the week after for a 28th?
[Why doesn’t the NSW parliament just expel Lee Rhiannon?]
Because both sides are enjoying the spectacle of Ms Holier-Than-Thou making an ass of herself, and spoiling the chances of the first communist in the Senate.
Obviously it was a hard-boiled protester.
Still considerably more than they deserve.
[Obviously it was a hard-boiled protester.]
We’re just hatching rotten ones now!
Anyway, I’m off to swim now. Take care Bludgers!
As Stan Lee would say if he were here right now:
EGG-CELSIOR!
I think she has to announce a 21 August election this weekend. There must be 33 working days between the writs and polling day, plus she will want to leave a few days between the announcement and the writs so people can enrol.
[As Stan Lee would say if he were here right now:
EGG-CELSIOR!]
eggscruciating.
Many years ago a Qld Pollie was charged with claiming a netball trip for his daughter and himself as an legitimate expense. The former head of NSW Rail once claimed a 30 cent apple on his expense account because he could. Lee Rhiannon has fallen into the common habit of her ilk with virtually unlimited expense accounts and now resents spending her own money for anything at all. Her latest gaffe is not an accidental error. This occurred because she has been on the public tit for so long that she now feels special and entiltled. For a member of a party that has claimed to be principled she proves she has none.
Is there a particular day when the PM can visit the GG to call the election ie does it have to be a Saturday or Sunday or can it be any day of the week at any time?
Lee Rhiannon has three adult children. I wonder if any of them will create the first Australian three-generation communist dynasty?
[Is there a pollbludger who has any faith at all in 56.5%? If punters really did this in the election, how many lower house seats would the Coalition have left? ]
A case of dont count your chickens……?
It can be any day the spectator
Abbott apparently trying to get Brough to run but Slipper in whose electorate Brough lives won’t budge, so far. Brough does not have much time for Slipper. Slipper may well have reciprocal feelings.
Apart from anything else, this is the first story about Abbott in The Australian. All the other stories are about Gillard and Conroy.
I imagine that Abbott would hope that publicly supporting Brough would rub some of the popular support onto Abbott. But it is hardly very supportive of a sitting member. BTW, Abbott still hanging around blokes and not saying very much.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/mal-brough-persuaded-by-tony-abbott-to-make-return-to-politics/story-e6frgczf-1225889849367
A 33 day election campaign means the PM has 9 days to call one for the 21st. She has flagged a CC policy annonvement next week. I reckon the 28th is still the best bet.
The likehood of Brough getting preselected in a Qld seat is zero. After the crap he has poured on the LNP he has a greater chance of standing as a Green.
54% is the feather and 56%+ would be the whole chicken.
60% would be the parson nose
😉
That’s just so much self-flagellation. The Timorese counted on us to be there when we were and we didn’t let them down. We’ve stayed as well. And poured a lot of money into the country. The rest is the normal argey-bargey.
They owe us alright.
How much they owe us is another thing, but they definitely owe us.
Not more fowl puns.
What’s so fantastic about Brough anyhow. He seemed to have a very limited personal vote at the 2007 election
The Libs letting a pair of drones like Slipper and Somlyay run again really is a disgrace. It’s not their age so much (60 and 64 respectively) as that they contribute nothing whatever. As I said earlier, Bronny may be 67 but she works hard, and so does Ruddock.
[The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.]
Why would they waste any money polling before the 2011 election? They should save their funds for helping MP’s look for new careers and for drowning their sorrows in March.
Looking at Rudd and Gillard, which came first, the chick or the rooster?
spectator,
The PM needs to make an appointment. I believe that Fraser turned up unaanounced for the 1983 election and was told to cool his heels.
Itep thanks.
Aristotle
I looked at the article an bethought myself that the Labor mob are deliberately leaking very, very bad polling figures because they have a hope that this will cause some of the faithful to return to the nest.
If I were them, I would not be holding my breath.
Looking at the list of potential losers at current polling levels, my only real regret would be Whan.
Choko quits Port.
[Choko quits Port.]
Port quits Choko.
Naughty Sir Ninian!
[Looking at the list of potential losers at current polling levels, my only real regret would be Whan.]
Yes, Boerwar, Whan is good bloke and someone who should be in Parliament.
Psephos @ 94
I met her many years ago when she opened some building for oldies near the Rocks in Sydney. She was the relevant Minister at the time (prior to the kerosene baths). My then partner was a member of the Libs (what interesting arguments we used to have!) and indeed she was very charming. Mind you I was just barely able to bite my tongue but I thought I’d have to walk home if I’d said anything untoward so I was diplomacy itself. The things you have to do!
[What’s so fantastic about Brough anyhow. He seemed to have a very limited personal vote at the 2007 election]
Brough would be a great candidate for Fisher, it would ensure the true LNP member Slipper (once a Nat now a Lib) gets to say I told you so.
All Slipper wanted was to be Speaker – nasty John would not give it to him, so he spends his days snoozing.
[Yes, Boerwar, Whan is good bloke and someone who should be in Parliament.]
So was his Dad.
[I thought I’d have to walk home if I’d said anything untoward]
If you’d said anything untoward she’d have bitten your head off with one snap.
[Looking at the list of potential losers at current polling levels, my only real regret would be Whan.]
The local feeling here is that Whan might hang on even if there is a big statewide swing. He’s popular locally and that counts in a country seat.
Should I be surprised that neither Newsradio nor any other media organisation is reporting on a positive opinion poll for Labor? 😉
Another pun-fest, eh? I’m shell-shocked.
Psephos: Whan might hold his seat against the trend.
I’d be amazed also if the likes of Nathan Rees and Frank Sartor got tossed out.
[Looking at Rudd and Gillard, which came first, the chick or the rooster?]
Six of one, half-a-dozen of the other.
Is Rees going to stand again? Why would he bother?
Well, I’ve got egg on my face.
But as we were talking about eggs, I must have thought there was a chick involved.
Skynews just reported that Paul Howes has broken ranks to say that he is not happy with Gillard’s asylum seeker policy. It also said that he did not like Abbott’s.
PNG has announced that it will not be housing boaties.
Rua, I ran into Steve Whan the Monday after the 2001 election when he lost for the second time in Eden-Monaro. The first time he lost by a few hundred votes.
He was looking at the heavy pounding surf of a south coast beach. I was wondering if he was actually going in for a swim, with me having visions of Harold Holt. Thankfully he was just admiring the surf and contemplating his future.
The Monaro district is well served by two good blokes, Whan and Mike Kelly.
I refuse to crack any egg jolks — but I must say, even if this Morgan poll is over the top, it does mean that the base is returning to the fold, and the ‘protest’ move to the greens has been undone.
The Libs and NewsLtd really shot themselves in the foot with their agitation to get Rudd removed. I don’t think they thought in their wildest dreams that the ploy would be successful, and though I’ve said it before, they now know the meaning of ‘be careful what you wish for’.
The Liberal strategists must have had apoplexy when Julia became PM knowing they were resigned to at least another 3 years in the wilderness. And if she hits any more ‘home runs’ with the electorate between now and the election, we could see the kind of seat numbers that were predicted half way through 2009 (WA notwithstanding)
[PNG has announced that it will not be housing boaties.]
Really? I heard the PNG PM say something opposite. Where does this report originate?
rua
um, disremember, I was listening to skynews and looking at the OO online…will see if I can find it again, or for the first time, depending on my circumstances and short term memory.
Good point, Psephos! The wine and finger-food were quite good too so that was another reason to stay. I’d never have been within a hundred miles of the function if it hadn’t been for the ex-partner and his Liberal loyalties.
[The man, who is believed to be a businessman with a gripe about government policies relating to wages, was in the cafe adjoining the ABC studio entrance before the egg was thrown.]
It may have been a right hand egg.