Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The second week of Essential Research polling under Julia Gillard has perfectly replicated the first, with Labor and the Coalition steady on 42 per cent and 39 per cent of the primary vote and Labor maintaining its 54-46 two-party lead. This compares with a Coalition primary vote lead of 40 per cent to 38 per cent in the final poll under Kevin Rudd, when Labor’s two-party lead was 52-48. Essential has also surveyed on approval of Julia Gillard for the first time, finding her approval rating at 48 per cent (seven points higher than Rudd’s final result from May 31) and disapproval at 27 per cent (20 points lower). Approval of Tony Abbott has been gauged for the second week running, and it does not replicate the result of the previous week – which was itself reflected in Newspoll – showing a bounce in the wake of the leadership change. His approval has gone from 35 per cent on May 31 to 40 per cent on June 28 to 37 per cent on July 5, while his disapproval has gone from 50 per cent to 39 per cent to 47 per cent. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 49-29, which is little different from the 47-30 lead Rudd recorded in his final poll. Also canvassed are best party to deal with various issues, which finds Labor gaining ground on every measure since three weeks ago (the interesting exceptions are “being honest and ethical” and “handling environmental and climate change issues”, which are stable). “Attributes to describe the Prime Minister” allow comparisons with Gillard on July 5 with Rudd on May 10, which are uniformly favourable to Gillard (who scores 21 points higher on being “down to earth&#148). Further questions show clear hostility to any notion of a “big Australia”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,816 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Roy Orbison. Apparently someone threw an egg at JG. Not nice.

    Yep, and don’t forget to remind people that’s extremist ferals do, and that’s the kind of people Abbott has behind him at the moment!

  2. The honeymoon begins. Now JGillard better get to an election ASAP before she makes too many more mistakes.

  3. [ Child porn images IS banned on Cinema]

    Ron, it is banned full stop, possession production or procurement are criminal acts, it has nothing to do with censorship or the broadcast act.

    [ Using a carriage service to access child pornography contrary to section 474.19(1)(a)(i) of the Criminal Code Act 1995.
    ]
    Is not the broadcast act.

    In a similar way states such as NSW have laws like;

    [ Producing, disseminating or possessing child pornography contrary to section 91H(2) of the Crimes Act 1900 (NSW)
    ]

    Well resourced policing is by far a better method than simply blocking with some superficial ineffective black list and pretending it will go away.

  4. Quite old polling though. Why doesnt Gary Morgan get his act together?

    [Finding No. 4532 – This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of June 26/27, 2010 (299 electors) & July 3/4, 2010 (879 electors), with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,178 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 5% did not name a party.: July 09, 2010]

  5. [Look, we might be getting this out of perspective. Most people do not give a damn about politics. We here on Crikey forums are political tragics, but we are not typical of the wider electorate. This stuff that we spend thousands of posts agonising over on Poll Bludger passes right over most people’s heads. Most don’t even tune in till the election campaign, and some don’t even think about who they’ll vote for till they’re about to put pencil to ballot paper. Let’s keep an eye on the forest, rather than getting hung up worrying about the trees]

    The second time today I’ve entirely agreed with one of your posts Cuppa. Perspective is the key word. I sometimes think we “insiders” are – like the Canberra press gallery – too close to the action for our own good.The polls will soon give us a clearer idea of where it all sits in the real world.

  6. Morgan making me smile a little, this is post 2 weeks, which means the polls can be taken seriously again.

    Although it is face to face and appears to have ben taken before yesterday’s BS. So don’t cheer too loudly.

  7. Also from Morgan

    [*Julia Gillard’s rise to become the new Prime Minister necessitates a change in the reported two-party preferred figures to reflect how electors say they will vote.]

    So using his normal methodology it is 56.5-43.5 🙂

  8. Wow. 45% primary vote with much coming from the Libs

    [The latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll showed an ALP primary vote of 45.5% (up 7% since the telephone Morgan Poll of June 25-28, 2010 and up 4.5% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll of June 19/20, 2010) well ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 7.5%, and down 3%) with the Greens at 10.5% (up 1.5% and down 2%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (down 1% and up 0.5%).]

  9. evan14 @ 2769

    [It’s crazy that an election will be decided on whether or not we can stop a humungous 4000 people per year getting to this country in leaky boats]

    There will be a lot of issues that go towards the final result on election day in 2010, but you can be sure that AS policy will not be the one that ‘decides’ the election.

    At most Asylum Seeker policy is a 3rd or 4th order issue for the vast majority of voters, with only a small proportion, less than 10%, regarding it as their ‘most important’ vote-deciding issue, and those few were almost certainly never going to vote for the ALP in large numbers anyway. It will colour the way people vote, but it sits behind more ‘important’ considerations like the management and the state of the economy, and Health and Hospitals policies.

    When the election campaign gets underway, the major issues of concern will revert to the standard ones, and for those reactionaries who point to the so-called ‘Tampa’ election in 2001, remember that the campaign then was fought in the shadow of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US barely 2 months before, and was cynically manipulated by the failed and discredited JW Howard with such fear mongering as the ‘children overboard’ fabrications. The venal Howard tried to repeat this mendacious scare campaign in 2007 with the concocted ‘Haneef Affair’ but this fell flat as a pancake under the weight of non-evidence and Federal Police incompetence.

    It’s not that voters are smarter now, but they are more cynical, and they won’t fall again for that sort of confected hysterics in 2010 when there are far more important matters on the electoral table to consider.

  10. [in all my years of using the internet I’ve never, ever, either intentionally or unintentionally come across illegal content on the web.]

    confessions – I did a few months ago. I was looking for copyright free pictures of fairies for kids to use and found a beaut site. Wonderful drawings on the first 6-8 pages but scrolling further bought up some I’d rather not have been looking at with kids next to me.

    I’m certainly no prude and I couldn’t care less one way or t’other about a filter but those pictures made me realise how easy it could be for kids to stumble on the wrong site without some kind of parental influence or filter. Of course, OH laughingly said ‘come on which site was it’ so I knew he wasn’t over the hill, so to speak! Bad luck for him I’d cleared it off.

  11. Cuppa – I hadn’t seen the Morgan poll when I posted 2808. If those kinds of figures don’t settle people down a bit nothing will.

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