The second week of Essential Research polling under Julia Gillard has perfectly replicated the first, with Labor and the Coalition steady on 42 per cent and 39 per cent of the primary vote and Labor maintaining its 54-46 two-party lead. This compares with a Coalition primary vote lead of 40 per cent to 38 per cent in the final poll under Kevin Rudd, when Labor’s two-party lead was 52-48. Essential has also surveyed on approval of Julia Gillard for the first time, finding her approval rating at 48 per cent (seven points higher than Rudd’s final result from May 31) and disapproval at 27 per cent (20 points lower). Approval of Tony Abbott has been gauged for the second week running, and it does not replicate the result of the previous week – which was itself reflected in Newspoll – showing a bounce in the wake of the leadership change. His approval has gone from 35 per cent on May 31 to 40 per cent on June 28 to 37 per cent on July 5, while his disapproval has gone from 50 per cent to 39 per cent to 47 per cent. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 49-29, which is little different from the 47-30 lead Rudd recorded in his final poll. Also canvassed are best party to deal with various issues, which finds Labor gaining ground on every measure since three weeks ago (the interesting exceptions are “being honest and ethical” and “handling environmental and climate change issues”, which are stable). “Attributes to describe the Prime Minister” allow comparisons with Gillard on July 5 with Rudd on May 10, which are uniformly favourable to Gillard (who scores 21 points higher on being “down to earth”). Further questions show clear hostility to any notion of a “big Australia”.
some time in 2364
Make it so!
I’ve never understood why anti filterers never even suported this aspect , child porn abuse of net filter
‘In conjunction with the review three of Australia’s largest ISPs — Telstra, Optus and Primus — have agreed to block a list of child abuse URLs compiled by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA).
“I welcome the socially responsible approach taken by some of Australia’s largest ISPs. Between them they account for around 70 per cent of internet users in Australia,” Senator Conroy said.
“I encourage other Australian ISPs to follow the example of these ISPs, as well as the large number of ISPs in other western democracies, who already block this abhorrent content.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/labor-delays-controversial-isp-filtering-plan/story-e6frgakx-1225889769969
Aristotle
I agree that the strategy should be mea culpa from Gillard on the regional re-settlement centre. The thing is, the concept itself is a good one, but she has diminished the idea by going off half-cocked on location. She was really and truly stuffed on Lateline on Wednesday night. She had no idea what she was saying when she lurched into alternative countries for the centre if Timor baulked.
Now the opposition is making fun of her ignorance as to the regional signatory countries to the convention (even the hopeless Julie Bishop for christ’s sake). I mean it’s alright for me to make fun of Gillard’s ignorance, but Bishop? No way. 😆
egg throwing will harden up JG supporters and confirm to all those who hate her they are not alone
If you’ve got HD/digital TV, the new ABC channel will be on CHANNEL 24 – I know this because I noticed yesterday channel surfing that there’s an endless preview running on Channel 24 of the new lineup(the likes of Virginia, Ali Moore, Juanita Phillips, Joe O’Brien, Chris Toolman……and one Aristotle we can add to the list) so I’d guess they’re starting up officially in the next couple of weeks. 😉
Cuppa. you make some excellent points. Most people are not as focused as “political tragics”, but as the asylum issue is tied up with fears held in some communities being overrun by certain ethnic groups, the government I believe needs to take the hits now in whichever direction, to perhaps muddy the waters for the liberals. It may not appear to be working, but in some ways it is neutralising the situation, if you get my drift.
[Xstrata still angry. An Xstrata official lecturing employees at toolbox meetings on mine sites about the mining super tax in Mount Isa told them: “You know how to vote.”]
in Crikey Tips&Rumours today. I hope the Union jumps on that one.
This is because the AS issue is being played – by both sides – as an artificial “ordeal”, a made up, hypothetical “test” for them to pass.
It really wouldn’t matter if there were 10,000 boaties arriving each year. It’d still be a minor proportion of total immigration. The actual number, a very small number, that do arrive is meaningless, except as an abstract “test” or “ordeal”, or “rite of passage” that both sides of politics freely choose to go through.
To see the newspaper headlines today (as I did, walking past the local newsagency) you’d think a hundred thousand swarthy wogs, full of disease and evil intent, had just arrived on the NW coast of Western Australia. You’d also think that East Timor – a country we went into bat for at considerable risk and essentially made free of Indonesia, and have morally and financially supported ever since at great cost – was about to declare war, or at least sever diplomatic relations with Australia. Of course it’s utter garbage, but that’s the game the media plays.
In TV reality shows, one essential aspect of these “Tests” and “ordeals” is that they take place neatly between ad breaks, are pumped full of articifical drama (I mean, no-one’s really going to get hurt if they fall off the log or the bridge or whatever, or fail to dance or sing well), and that they wrap neatly by the end of the show. Everything about them is confected… the timing, the “danger”, the threat” and the stakes.
As with reality show “ordeals”, political “ordeals” have to be resolved promptly, neatly and with firm decision, lest the one who fails them be seen as “weak” on the particular issue, or of insufficient “character” to run the country (extrapolated, of course, as the “ordeal” is totally confected). If, with 48 hours (and sometimes 24) the situation is not resolved then headlines saying “Gillard Fails On Boat People”, or “East Timor Rejects Gillard” (or some other such complete and utter nonsense) start running. The proles in their trakkie-daks and Ugg boots see only these (they’re more interested in the footy) and decide that such-and-such a pollie has not cut the mustard and must be voted off the show.
Both types of insta-crises, political and reality TV, have at least one other thing in common: the participants sign a piece of paper that permits them to be put through any humiliation and endure any mockery should they not make it through to the final episode. In other words, participation is voluntary.
In volunteering to participate, Gillard has fallen for the trap of pandering to the proletariat and (although I hope she doesn’t lose the election over it) she deserves all she cops for being a smartarse about it. Rudd doesn’t look so dumb now, does he? There are no instant successes, no immediate solutions to the problem, and Gillard thought she could just wave the magic wand over it and solve “Boat People” in a trice.
What annoys me is how dramatically the media treats this most trivial of problems, no more of genuine import than who got voted off That’s Dancing last weekend (do you remember?), or who got airlifted out of the desert in Survivor Australia (or who didn’t). It’s a very sick society we live in where fake solutions to fake “ordeals” and rites of passage are made a thousand times more important than they are.
That the proles and bogans are passionate about boat people is undeniable. The real question is should they be? There has to be a better way to deal with this trivial problem (in essence) than volunteering to be beaten about the head by rednecks wielding baseball bats, egged on by a lazy, adversarial media and a cynical Coalition.
The test Gillard has failed is not about boat people. It’s more about not realizing how to defuse the issue, to put it into perspective, without insulting the (genuinely but mistakenly) fearful and without dragging down the level of debate to the level of the demagogues of the right.
She should have taken the high road, not the low road, because down underneath is where all the quicksand is found, and Julia has stepped right into it, unnecessarily.
[It’s the Joe and JA show. Strolling through a wet and windy Eastwood Mall yesterday I encountered Joe Hockey and John Alexander. JA was campaigning in the correct electorate, but Joe was a long way away from the home comforts of North Sydney. Most intriguing though was the fact that their poster frames had JA on one side and Hockey on the other. Where’s Tony Abbott? Is Tony already so on the nose in Bennelong that he won’t be seen in the electorate? Or has Joe forgotten that he didn’t win the Liberal Party’s last leadership ballot and likes to quietly masquerade as the Liberal leader?]
Another one from tips and rumours in crikey. Is Joe hoping to take over before the election?
I think the concern is that child porn is just a “reichstag fire” (not the inside job part) to regulate opinion on the internet and ban things that the mainstream find unsavoury – if not by this government, then a future.
I can understand that concern. I’d prefer to use the concern to ensure a filter has safeguards to protect free speech, rather than just protesting against any filter and going to the length that some trolls go to, in order to make a statement – such as disrupting the government’s websites etc. (which just strengthens the government’s resolve and gains them support)
[My point is, no matter what Gillard was going to announce, she was going to get intense scrutiny from the Coalition, the Greens and the media, with the world “failure” being overused and the proposal perused for even the slightest hitch]
Welcome to Kevin Rudd’s world. He faced this constantly and from insiders working against him, yet he still managed to lead. JGillard has just got the first taste of what it is always like for a Labor leader. Leadership isn’t suited to everyone. For a Rudd, Hawke, Howard etc it comes naturally and requires a great deal of ability.
This is why Labor was stupid to throw away a perfectly good PM, as though they grow on trees. You use up your resources recklessly. What happens when the next option fails, where do you turn to in a hurry. Greed trumped sanity in JGillards case.
But she is lucky, an early election will see her get over the line comfortably, unless a Turnbull comes along, then her margin will be reduced.
Aristotle,
If you don’t mind me asking, does the ABC pay you for your appearances?
Or demonstrate that the opposition are currently a rabble of petulant militants who no sane Australian would want to associate themselves with.
That’s the angle I’d try to push to the media. (Libs used it on us in 2004)
[It’s more about not realizing how to defuse the issue, to put it into perspective, without insulting the (genuinely but mistakenly) fearful and without dragging down the level of debate to the level of the demagogues of the right. ]
Well put, BB – and it’s about reiterating the parts of her Lowey Inst. speech where she gave actual facts and figures of how small the problem is. Education should be the key.
If JG were to present a concrete proposal before election regarding processing centre in East Timor, would it be a huge boost to Labor?
Ron,
Because I think censorship of any kind is an ineffective blunt instrument that does more harm than good. There are always better ways to deal with illegal or offensive content.
TP 2761
Preaching to the choir on the Rudd thing. We’ve had back and forths, you know I was against Rudd being rolled (despite being a fan of Gillard and her leadership potential.) It’s just we have a PM Gillard now, and the fact is, after the election it’s either Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott who will be PM.
I respect you disagreeing with policies, and I respect your disapproval with the leadership change but c’mon. I know you’re intelligent, anybody who is a fan of Paine (and clearly understands that he wasn’t a laissez-faire libertarian like so many current activists mythically believe) is clearly intelligent. I’m sure you can understand the difference between the variable continuum of policy and party structure, and the clear dichotomy of elections. Elections have almost always been the lesser of two evils – except to the true believers. And right now is election season, which means presenting oneself that way.
[What annoys me is how dramatically the media treats this most trivial of problems]
A venal, reactionary, one-party media will beat it up out of all proportion, if for no other reason than it aids the so-called Liberals.
It’s crazy that an election will be decided on whether or not we can stop a humungous 4000 people per year getting to this country in leaky boats, but hey, I guess it’ll make the good citizens of Western Sydney happier that Abbott is protecting us from those “evil muslim invaders”.
confessions
Posted Friday, July 9, 2010 at 9:38 am | Permalink
“Who exactly is the mandatory filter pitched at?”
then you , j/v and yo ho ho answered its christian lobby it was aimed at
you lot may suport sick people viewing internet child porm images , but 80% of ordinary aussies do not , irrespective of whether they be athiest or christians
it is not a religous issue , but one of normal Austrlian’s decency Most Australiens could not giv a stuff about restricting th libartarien rites of sick people to view child porn !
Why dont you lot , instead of hiding behind an internet keybord , instead get on a public City street corner with a plakard saying ‘I suport rite of people viewing child porn images’
On a lighter note, I was thinking very hard about who is going to get my support this year, weighing how much I like each side, realising they are the same in my eyes. Both have good personalities and bad, both deserve victory. I even considered the pros and cons of each victor. The effects on national pride, economic recovery etc. Even considered the trivial like aesthetics and who has a better media appearance.
But I couldn’t decide who could get my support – The experienced side or the fresh face? After much internal struggle, it’s time I finally make my endorsement and declare my support:
Go the Dutch!
check out this newsletter on the Morgan site, which ranks Federal electorates according to issues of concern:
http://www.roymorgan.com/resources/pdf/papers/20100707.pdf
[ ‘I suport rite of people viewing child porn images’ ]
With all due respect you are expressign a simplistic view born of an ignorance of the technical issues.
As has been said, the filter will not stop child porn, nobody here that I have seen is supporting child porn. Child porn is illegal, people caught downloading it should be thrown into the darkest, deepest dungeon.
The issue is that the filter will be worse that ineffective, it will mean those that peddle this vile stuff will be forced to use other means that can’t be tracked, so one of the investigative avenues open to locate, watch, catch and convict will be closed. The filter will have the unintended consequence of making it harder to stop child porn Ron, that is just one of the reasons why it is a bad idea.
So the big 3 ISPs have decided to filter the internet using the ACMA blacklist. How long before they start advertising their “parent friendly clean feed”?
Anti-filterites have been snookered, they will probably take a few days to figure it out. 🙂
[it is not a religous issue , but one of normal Austrlian’s decency Most Australiens could not giv a stuff about restricting th libartarien rites of sick people to view child porn !]
You make a fair point actually. As I said, what was told to me was that the internet was a genuine concern for many Australians – I think I accepted JV’s characterisation and that was probably a lazy generalisation on my behalf. I’d love to see something more concrete (in terms of polling) as to the genuine level of concern. I find it interesting that people feel the need for it. But then again, i’ve spent all day drinking latte’s and chattering…
Zoomster – did Morgan release a poll figure
I think it would be a tragedy for Australia’s future if at the end of this we end up with two conservative parties, or that the public assume that is what they have. Sometimes winning is not everything. This is exactly where we are going.
[ Anti-filterites have been snookered, they will probably take a few days to figure it out. ]
No they will just flick to a anonymous HTTPS transparent proxy if they wish to view blocked content.
Apropos of nothing I spotted a David Bradbury for Lindsay poster on someones front lawn whilst driving through his electorate this morning.
Jus’ sayin’.
Rua – firstly, not only can you still get clean feeds through other ISP’s, you can still get them through Telstra and Optus if you really want it (don’t know about Iprimus).
Secondly, what is being blocked isn’t RC content – simply illegal content. And not in the way that was proposed via the filter.
Mandatory filtering of the type that was originally proposed looks, while not quite dead, certainly a little like Philip Ruddock
1/ Jon
“Ron,
Because I think censorship of any kind is an ineffective blunt instrument”
Child porn images IS banned on Cinema’s , and video’s now by law so it is effective !
ALL 3 largest ISP’s (Optus , Primis & Telstra now hav agreed to filter it A law will be passed to make that mandatory for all ISP’s
2/ To Speak of Pebbles
“I think the concern is that child porn is just a “reichstag fire” (not the inside job part) ”
Child porn is banned ALREADY for th Net per 1992 Broadcast Act , as it is for Cinema’s and video In fact that Act foreshadowd a filter as th tool to enforse it
You ar correct to say ‘fear’ of extension of what is banned caused alot of anti filterers opositon , flamed becaue just like th ATO and ASIO you cannn’t make banned lists public until AFTER proscution has case evidense built up I favor DO as much transparensy as is needed for resonable people to be happy and dont object to a review panel oversite etc do not object to tightening classifications definitons at all so that what we want to be banned is all that is banned
But you also need to accept many libartariens wuld oppose ANY net filter even if banned klist was mad immediate public
No, Cuppa, I don’t mind and there’s no fee.
This boat people issue is a tricky one…. I don’t quite get people’s concerns as it has been pointed out over and over the numbers are pretty low……..I think people in the big cities at least, are just sick of immigration itself, or rather the effects of immigration (rightly or wrongly percieved)…ie high housing costs crowded public transport, bad traffic, harder to access services etc……add onto this some aspects of ethnic gangs/crime in some suburbs and u get a general feeling of no more peopel……and perhaps the boat people bare the brunt of this feeling……
I wonder if there roads were always traffic free, everyone could get a seat on the train, it wasn’t almost impossible to see a bulk bill doctor and a house still costs a reasonable multiple of the normal wage, would people care at all about immigration, let alone boat people?……to me it seems likely a feeling that resources are getting scarcer and they have to be shared b/w more and more people…..and the belief that perhaps this boat people thing is small now but what if it gets to be a flood…..
If the filter makes a single parent believe they can safely let their children play on the net unsupervised, it will be a failure of policy.
Poss
Its the thin edge, ISPs are now blocking sites, why did they choose to do this? My guess is for commercial advantage.
The sites they are blocking are from the ACMA blacklist. All done without legislation.
In 12 months time people will wonder what all the fuss was about.
“You’d also think that East Timor – a country we went into bat for at considerable risk and essentially made free of Indonesia, and have morally and financially supported ever since at great cost”
I was thinking the same thing BB.
How so? Because Labor don’t see the world in black and white? Understands the complexities of issues? Believes in governing well rather than just grandstanding? Yes, they take the centrist position on many issues. A conservative party, that does not make. I can assure you that just about every progressive reform you can think of was thanks to a Labor government too.
[In a sign of the interest within Perth at Ms Gillard’s visit, a breakfast this morning for 550 people hosted by _The West Australian _, at which she will speak, sold out with strong demand from hundreds of people unable to secure a ticket.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/7553791/gillard-sweeps-in-to-boost-alp-fortunes/
I heard this on radio last night on Delroy’s ‘What the Papers Say’ but have not heard the number mentioned anywhere else. Gillan on Sky deliberately left out the numbers going and wanting to go when she reported this breakfast meeting but she made big references to Labor losing seats in WA.
virtualkat. you have hit the nail on the head! That is why JG had to go down the low road with the asylum seeker issue, as that issue leads to the bigger issue of immigration and the sharing of resources. Hence the new portfolio, “sustainable immigration”. It is no accident that this issue is front and centre at the moment.
Annabel Crabb has a funny article at The Drum on “The Non-Specific Solution”:
[The Prime Minister yesterday was at great pains to convey that she did not at all appreciate being verballed on that front (When she tracks down the irresponsible bastard who unfairly created the expectation that such a processing centre might be established in East Timor, there will be hell to pay).]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/09/2948923.htm?site=thedrum
Clarke & Dawe refugee sketch:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
Lastly, here’s a good challenge for the neo-bogans on this blog who would dignify base prejudice:
[What would you do?]
http://www.smh.com.au/world/what-would-you-do-20100709-1034g.html
Ron: in all my years of using the internet I’ve never, ever, either intentionally or unintentionally come across illegal content on the web. Never. If you feel you need to be protected from these nasty sites out there, then that’s your perogative – nobody is stopping you from getting yourself an internet filter and installing it on your computer. But trying to equate those who are opposed to an ineffective and costly process as somehow perverted is simply ridiculous, and simply shows how hysterical the pro-mandatory filter lobby industry are on this.
Libertarians or libertines? 😉
Most smart libertarians also know that the concept of free speech does not imply “can say and do anything” there are limits to free speech (violation of privacy, security, to cause direct harm on someone, hurt ones reputation etc.)
I am saying that it’s better to have advocacy for safety nets on the filter, to prevent decency becoming the policy or, in worst cases, preventing dissent.
Well I see Labor has sensibly backed down on its silly internet filter. I do not accept that I am a fan of child porn if I oppose it. The filter as proposed was going to slow down the internet for everyone, while according to everyone I know who understands the technology would not have stopped the pornographers anyway, because the serious criminals already use the internet in a sophisticated way.
Still, at least Labor hasn’t backed down on doing nothing about an ETS. 🙁
Warwick McKibbin has pointed out that even some businesses will be unhappy there is no carbon price, bceause they cannot plan investment without it. BTW these are long term investments, so saying it is put off till 2013 does not solve the problem. It just means nobody will build a major power station in Australia for three years. Brilliant.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/08/2948644.htm?site=news
I missed this egg throwing business. What happened?
Latest Morgan 55 -45 2pp.
Care to expand on that term?
Doncha ya just love the hypocrisy of Abbott. He’s forgotten to tell us all today that their Pacific Solution was a last minute effort without previous consultation with anyone. One of our kids just sent this asking why the Libs can get away with this while bagging JuliaG for wanting to negotiate a processing centre.
[Mr Downer cast back to mid-2001 when the Howard government had just ordered the SAS to board the MV Tampa.
The Norwegian tanker had defied an order by Australian authorities to sail its 438 rescued asylum-seekers to Indonesia.
Adamant that the refugees would never enter Australia, the Howard government began casting around for a solution.
“We tried Singapore, we tried Fiji, we tried East Timor,” Mr Downer told The Australian.
“We succeeded in the end with Nauru. We thought about the Solomon Islands. I mean honestly, (the Labor Party) can just write a letter of apology to John Howard and me and (then immigration minister) Philip Ruddock.”
Like Ms Gillard, Mr Downer made his overture via Jose Ramos-Horta, who was then foreign minister and is now President.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/fraser-backs-dili-option/story-e6frgczf-1225889148037
Rua – that’s already been happening in many cases anyway. Now we have a set of illegal material lists to be available – again, not something many people really give much of a toss about.
The problem was never illegal content, it was RC content, the process involved for formulating lists that breach that ambiguous classification, and the technology recommended to do it with.
The only problem now is the false consciousness issue – where people think they’re kids are protected when they’re not. But considering what is actually blocked is now only a very very very small subset of the RC material that would have been blocked – saying that “Internet nasties no longer exist for your children” is a stretch too far even for the creative hyper-marketing types at Telstra and Optus.
[ALP 55% (up 6%) set to win Federal Election over L-NP 45% (down 6%)
But Men & Women Split on New PM Gillard]
Morgan. 🙂
To Labor? And is that a prediction or the actual numbers?