Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The second week of Essential Research polling under Julia Gillard has perfectly replicated the first, with Labor and the Coalition steady on 42 per cent and 39 per cent of the primary vote and Labor maintaining its 54-46 two-party lead. This compares with a Coalition primary vote lead of 40 per cent to 38 per cent in the final poll under Kevin Rudd, when Labor’s two-party lead was 52-48. Essential has also surveyed on approval of Julia Gillard for the first time, finding her approval rating at 48 per cent (seven points higher than Rudd’s final result from May 31) and disapproval at 27 per cent (20 points lower). Approval of Tony Abbott has been gauged for the second week running, and it does not replicate the result of the previous week – which was itself reflected in Newspoll – showing a bounce in the wake of the leadership change. His approval has gone from 35 per cent on May 31 to 40 per cent on June 28 to 37 per cent on July 5, while his disapproval has gone from 50 per cent to 39 per cent to 47 per cent. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 49-29, which is little different from the 47-30 lead Rudd recorded in his final poll. Also canvassed are best party to deal with various issues, which finds Labor gaining ground on every measure since three weeks ago (the interesting exceptions are “being honest and ethical” and “handling environmental and climate change issues”, which are stable). “Attributes to describe the Prime Minister” allow comparisons with Gillard on July 5 with Rudd on May 10, which are uniformly favourable to Gillard (who scores 21 points higher on being “down to earth&#148). Further questions show clear hostility to any notion of a “big Australia”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,816 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Psephos

    “The vitriol of recent posts could be bottled and used as weedkiller. To sum up recent debate: the Australian people, in particularly those rednecked yahoos the working class, are a lot of stupid, ignorant, conformist, racist xenophobes, who need to be “educated” by the benevolent and enlightened elite so that they express correct thoughts in future.”

    That is truly ironic Psephos… Glad you have acknowledged that. Good to hear that you don’t actually feel that way at all.

    I love your irony now! Ohhh joy to the irony of Psephos’ commentary!

  2. I was just going to say that some polling or internal polling must be out soon so both of the main parties can modify their policies.

  3. A promising result for the ALP. Will be interesting to see how close Essential gets to the final result at this election.

  4. Also I doubt the working class masses are currently debating word spelling and the evolution of words and nor are they using political blogs at this point in time. I suspect that is an elitist activity.

  5. The numbers are firming and the lines are being drawn in the sand. People are now “definitely” moving into Gillard’s camp or Abbott’s camp. This is looking more like an election result than an opinion poll.

    Not saying that we have won or that we are going to walk in (it’s going to be a tough fight) but if this is the kind of polling we see over the next few weeks, I am getting confident.

  6. Really interesting that Tone’s approval has gone backwards in the week that he has been seen out and about. Pretty good result for Julia G.

    Is there a newspoll due tonight?

  7. [Tony Burke, George Brandis, Cheryl Kernot, Annabel Crabb and Grahame Morris.]

    Poor Tony Burke saddled with that lot.
    Brandis – the bloke who told us of the ‘famous victory’ but now won’t allow it to be repeated.
    Kernot – the vitriol for Labor always fresh on her lips.
    Crabb – who seems to have lost her punch in the last few articles on The Drum and
    Morris – he who happily told fibs for his master, John Howard.

  8. An encouraging results for Labor in the wake of last week’s MRRT resolution, and a partial vindication, if one was required, of the change from the damaged brand Rudd to brand Gillard.

    The result is pretty much status quo from the previous week’s Essential Media results, except for the plummeting approval and soaring disapproval ratings of the Opposition Leader, my choice of adjectives being taken straight from the Gospel according to Shanahan.

    Almost all other indicators from this set of results make gloomy reading for the Coalition, with Abbott’s relentless negativity now starting to bite in the electorate as a big minus. A 20+ point lead to Julia Gillard in the Preferred PM, an ALP primary on 42% and a 54% to 46% TPP – it’s not going to get much better than this … or will it?

    The underdog effect is greatly over-rated, in my view, and is no more valid than factoring in the ‘bandwagon’ effect. After all, who, other than the rusted-on right wingnuts, would want to now get on board the leaky garbage scow that is the SS Abbott? I’d say it’s women and children first and man the lifeboats. I wonder how many Coalition rats in the Parliamentary parties will jump from the sinking ship as they feel the icy hand of electoral defeat closing around their flabby necks?

    Centrebet has the ALP coming in to $1.29 and the Coalition out to $3.50, with Sportsbet also showing movement since Friday with the ALP shortening in to $1.25 and the Coalition blowing out to $3.75.

    Money talks, and bullshit walks ….

  9. [Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott met junior miners yesterday to spell out his position.]

    Is a meeting really necessary? What’s there to spell out?

  10. Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott met junior miners yesterday to spell out his position.

    Is a meeting really necessary? What’s there to spell out?

    “I’m still relevannnnnnnt!”

    Gee, who would’ve thought putting all of your eggs in the “Rudd the dud” and “Great Big New Tax” baskets would backfire…

  11. The key stats here are:

    Preferred PM (total)- JG 53% TA 26%
    P PM (amongst Greens voters)- JG 72% TA 3%
    P PM (men)- JG 48% TA 31%
    P PM (women)- JG 57% TA 22%
    trustworthy- JG 49% TA 33%

    Add to this the Neilsen result from last week that said 53% of aussies said that Tony Abbott is ‘someone that dont like that much’.

    Tony is screwed. Aint no Greens preferences going to get him over the line.

  12. The Greens preferences may go a bit stronger to the Libs this time. Not because of the Greens themselves, but rather traditional Labor voters coming back home combined with the possibility of some traditional Liberal voters (who could never bring themselves to support Labor in any way) protesting by voting Green.

  13. Psephos@32

    What are junior miners? Or is it a missprint for minors? Victims of clerical abuse perhaps?

    People like Twiggy Forrest, Atlas Mining and Gina Reinhart – those wrking poor. 🙂

  14. Itep
    Essential gets ~1000 responses
    11% Green voters = 110 green respondents to the survey
    = ~3 green respondents preferring Tony to Julia

  15. [11% Green voters = 110 green respondents to the survey
    = ~3 green respondents preferring Tony to Julia]

    The poor souls need urgent counselling! 😉

  16. [What are junior miners? Or is it a missprint for minors? Victims of clerical abuse perhaps?]

    No those are the merely millionaire miners, as opposed to the billionaires.

    Clearly another good result for Labor. Regardless of my dismay at recent events and the intent to bully a few more refugees to give working class neanderthals a reason to vote Labor, Gillard is clearly performing well and should win. She should go to the polls as soon as she outlines how Labor will handle climate change in the next parliament. Waiting longer only gives the Liberals more time to regroup.

  17. Wow, there is just NOTHING good in that Essential Report for the Oopo. surely the Libs must be having a good look at their leadership team if they are polling like this? They must be getting to the point where almost anyone that’s not Abbott, Mesma, Pyne, or Barnaby would do better.

  18. Some of those posting earlier should have moldova their thoughts for a bit longer…(sorry if the moment has passed)

  19. On a lighter note, there are clearly working class people out there who want to be seen as well educated. (My parents were working class and it mattered a lot to them that their children were.) However, this is probably not the solution to their problems – in USA there is now an on-line (Glen) Beck University:

    I can think of many times where the title “you sound like a graduate of Beck U” might apply.

  20. [Are there any more of those jokes romanian, and yet to come?]
    No doubt someone is Russian to type them. I think they will soon Finnish though.

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