Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.
A bit of federal news:
• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).
• Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.
• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.
New South Wales news:
• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.
• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.
Zoomster went:
[Oooohhh poss you get a mention at the end of the Morgan report…]
It’s been on those releases for years. It links to my old wordpress site 😛
Gee, I wonder ehether this poll will get the wide publicity the last Morgan did. Channel 7 must be wild with excitement.
[Gee, I wonder ehether this poll will get the wide publicity the last Morgan did. Channel 7 must be wild with excitement.]
Yeah – I wonder what “funny man” Riley will make of that.
No mention, no doubt.
Ms Rhiannon is in poo for the 3rd day running.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/09/2949504.htm?section=justin
Why not resign, it would have saved a lot of grief.
As I said before. It’s a nice set of numbers for Labor and, certainly, anyone demoralised can take solace from it. However, being a face to face poll (which often favour Labor) and being taken well before the AS policy announcement and ensuing controversy, I’d take it with a little grain of salt.
Still I’ll take the good numbers and wait with bated breath for next week’s Newspoll and hope the damage has been minimal from the last few does so that Gillard can keep her momentum.
confessions
Posted Friday, July 9, 2010 at 2:56 pm | Permalink
“Ron: in all my years of using the internet I’ve never, ever, either intentionally or unintentionally come across illegal content on the web. Never. ”
you may never hav seen a naked man running down th middle of Burke street , but it is still illegal….as is child porn images
Govt’s represent and act on th vast majority of what a community regards as decency standards…child porn images does not cut mustard with 80% of voters in reel World , so th ‘anyone can view anything sick libertarien brigade’ fringe minority will just hav to wear it…because mandatory filtering by law will happen for all ISP’s (and Optus Primis & Telstra today ALREADY agreed to voluntarily do so
Another good result for Labor. Hoping we get another 3 years so it can be done correctly this time.
Oh Dear, Morgan has gone feral again
“We” from a Green supporter? 🙂
I’d akin them more to anarchists. And some of them, libertines.
Libertarians know that free speech is not limitless.
WEll was it me that said last night dont wory about the as thing people
have taken julia to their heart.
Go our Jules ({ jewel_}
I thought that said “Jew!” and I was thinking “what the hell?!” 😆
Need more coffee, I think…
Who threw that egg at Jules. he should get a medal. it took every thing else about Jules off the headlines.
More Eggs Florentine please.
60.5% of women prefer the ALP. I alway knew women had more sense than us males. 😉
[Another good result for Labor. Hoping we get another 3 years so it can be done correctly this time]
i often wish the time was longer it seem as the end of two years the media just start on election and the problems it may hold things that are started cannot alwasy be ended in two years and then the party get worried about the election and policies also.
Of course i may not say that about the time scale if the other mob where in.
Great result two polls now can we take a deep breathe now do you think
[“We” from a Green supporter]
Yes. By ‘we’ I mean Australians.
[60.5% of women prefer the ALP]
Says a lot about Tone, doesn’t it.
[Who threw that egg at Jules. he should get a medal. it took every thing else about Jules off the headlines. ]
Some environmentalist boatie lover according to the ABC.
[Who threw that egg at Jules. he should get a medal. it took every thing else about Jules off the headlines.
More Eggs Florentine please]
100 th more votes from us girls
[ Gee, I wonder ehether this poll will get the wide publicity the last Morgan did. Channel 7 must be wild with excitement.
Yeah – I wonder what “funny man” Riley will make of that.
No mention, no doubt.]
BK – if he does he will say it’s not uptodate cos it doesn’t take into account the last couple of days.
[Great result two polls now can we take a deep breathe now do you think]
Nope :p You can’t officially relax until election night.
Posted Friday, July 9, 2010 at 3:27 pm | Permalink
WEll was it me that said last night dont wory about the as thing people
have taken julia to their heart.
Go our Jules ({ jewels of the southern cross } now does that help you see it better
perhaps its less coffee i know my blood presure been up lately with all this
so i have cut back on the coffee and chocs _}
[Nope :p You can’t officially relax until election night]
so my bp is up for a while then
BH: my mother had a similar experience with naked men when she went searching for information about men’s health (god knows what search terms she was using!). I think this just supports my view about user-end filtering being a more targetted, and therefore more effective measure.
Sent the morgan poll to my girls and told them to pass it on we may be the ones that have to get it out there
[ ‘anyone can view anything sick libertarien brigade’ ]
Ok I give up, sense and reason obviouly cut no ice. Under your system nothing changes, you can just slip into a state of comfortably deluded denial. Me I’d prefer myself and my children to be educated on the topic.
Of course not. The next Liberal government is guaranteed a 10 year honeymoon. With rationales of why the election is unloseable for them. (eg. “no government loses after 1 term”, “the country needs to be in pretty bad shape for Australians to want to change government” “Labor needs to convince us, without a shadow of a doubt, that it is ready to lead again or we’ll stick with the government” and other gems of wisdom that are completely contrary to what is being said at present.)
Yep, never cheer over a good poll, never weep over a bad one. Keep yourself composed and cautiously optimistic until 6pm on election night. 🙂
Beetroot juice is apperently good for blood pressure, heard that on the ABC, must be true.
I swim regularly to overcome my stress, and the exercise helps with the BP
[I think this just supports my view about user-end filtering being a more targetted, and therefore more effective measure.]
confessions – if the sites are innocently named how can you tell what is buried in them. My mistake was thinking a site saying ‘free fairy drawings’ was innocent from 1st to last page. I’ve learnt a lesson from it tho but perhaps there could be a rating on them.
I eat junk food to overcome my stress. Seems to work OK.
Ltep, I sure that in their second term under a Labor Government the current Greens will have learnt greatly from their mistakes of the first term, and will actually consider and pass environmentally friendly Government policies, instead of dooming the world to cataclysmic climate change consequences by opposing them.
They may even develop policies of their own, instead of following the lead of the Coalition; policies which have more substance than the feel good, airy fairy one liners and thought bubbles which have passed for their position to date.
I’m glad you have seen this at last.
Morgon Poll shows Labor primary at 45.5% , seems inflated to me Suspect Newspoll will be a more likely 42%-43%
With A-S , I beleive some posters jumped gun criticising Julia over ‘process’ If electon was 12 months away then eyes and T’s will be crossed in private first with timor President & PM , but electon is close
So I think Julia beought A-S now quite delib with a principal message to voters , instead of waiting for it to inflame in election campiagn ITSELF
‘message’ is Abbott can not stop th boats COMING , so he is gonna turn them back …to somewhere VS Julia is implying th boats will not even come !
Jlia can quote PUBLIC endorsement TWICE on TV of President Horta to an agreement in principal
(Why did not she contact PM first ? because she only wanted an agreemnet in principal (which a Timor President CAN and did provide) , seeing details take alot of negagitions…whereas IF she contacted Timor PM he needed to taske it to Cabinet first , it gets delayed waiting details and no in principal agreement could be public made suporting Julia’s idea
so sorry , think crics of Julia approach miss this vs close oz election to come
Ed.@2786 on Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor – The Poll Bludger
Oh, not this ‘they owe us’ nonsense again. Given what we’ve done to them in the past, and are continuing to do, we’re lucky they even talk to us!
Hi Darn – let’s see if this one settles people down a bit. 🙂
phew – I just listened to Laurie Oakes on 9 this morning. Shouldn’t have. He is on Malcolm Fraser’s side re AS but does he ever write that in his columns? I’ve not seen him tear Abbott or Howard apart on the issue.
He certainly has a set against Julia tho. He wasn’t happy with Kev going and yet he wrote so many lousey articles against him. Oakes has become a grumpy old hasbeen searching for his long lost relevancy.
Gillard should always have made it clear that she was just floating an idea that would be discussed over the coming months. However, there’s no difference between her floating a thought bubble and the Coalition floating a thought bubble. They’ve both had time to come up with solid policy proposals and all the Opposition can do is come up with a one sentence slogan.
[ ‘free fairy drawings’ ]
LOL. Yep that search string was allways going to get you into trouble!
Seems we’ll be getting another Nielsen poll on Monday.
[Oh, not this ‘they owe us’ nonsense again. Given what we’ve done to them in the past, and are continuing to do, we’re lucky they even talk to us!]
To be fair morewest, I’m fairly certain BB was taken out of context there – I looked back at his original comment and he was saying the media was portraying the debate as near war with them, and BB was merely pointing out that we have a close relationship….
Ron. Your assessment is correct. JG has put this issue front and centre including the approach to East Timor, knowing full well the hits that would come from it. In some respects, between the media and the opposition as well as the general public, it ironically neutralises the situation somewhat.
To be fair, I have seen him go after Howard and Abbott many times, and play Devil’s advocate when one of them is getting plenty of publicity.
We should never mistake journalists who hold our elected officials to account with ideological/partisan hacks.
TSOPebbles
You ask for a Definition of the sociological term ‘neo-bogan’?
[‘neo-bogan’ (Aust.) knee-oh-bow-ghan n. Orig. Westie-ese Lang. Apparent bogan enthusiast or sympathizer often of political party to justify cynical policy favouring ignorance or prejudice fo shallow political purposes.
Me 43
Damn lack of edit button. I was talking about Laurie Oakes there.
JV 44
Ah, got ya. In other words, a populist. 🙂
If the electron was 12 months away why will we be cross eyed in private? I’m just not following Ron.
tis a good poll though! 🙂
😆
Save the innocent: Ban the fairy drawings!! And the fairy artists. Gaol them with their fairy dust! Stephen?
East Timor will do exactly what Australia would do if East Timor requested Australia to host a regional Flight Centre Solution for Boaties:
Consider its national interest.
Morgan FTF poll yawn why bother with these rubbish FTF polls anyway they arent reliable.
It’s like asking people to vote by yelling out their political party of choice.
Wait for the next newspoll IMHO.