Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor

Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.

A bit of federal news:

• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).

Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.

• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.

New South Wales news:

• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.

• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.

• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 29
1 2 3 29
  1. Will JG get an agreement in principal before election. The media reportage seems to be talking out of both sides of its mouth.

  2. [ free fairy drawings’

    LOL. Yep that search string was allways going to get you into trouble!]

    I’m just an innocent in a wood full of goblins, Jon

    Pebbles – I meant I don’t think I’ve ever seen an article by Oakes pulling apart the Howard/Abbott AS policy. If he believes in the Fraser line on this then surely he has written some. I’ll go searching.

  3. BH: I’ve never used an internet filter on any of my computers, but my understanding is that when you install it, you choose the settings you want for it: swearing, porn, violence, etc. The better filters will simply block out whatever it is you’ve specified as objectionable. Some software will warn you when you click on a link that contains material you’ve specified as to be blocked, while others will just block access to it. I think there’s filter software called Internet Nanny, so it may be worth a google.

  4. [Morgan FTF poll yawn why bother with these rubbish FTF polls anyway they arent reliable.]

    But they are fun, especially when you plug them into Anthony Green’s swing-o-meter.

    Fisher and Fairfax are gorn to Labor. 😉

  5. I think it is quite useful for Gillard if people who think she is too hard on boaties through eggs at her.

    Makes her look tough.

    Are we sure the egg was not thrown by an agent provacateur of the Labor persuasion?

  6. impersonating populist.

    Somebody who pretends to be a populist but, in fact, governs how they see fit?

    A politician?

    p.s. I think populism is a dangerous philosophy. Fake populists don’t bother me as much as the real ones…

  7. thanks confessions. I don’t want to use any filters but will just be watchful if we have any littlies here in future. The grandkids are now adults so can do their own thing.

  8. I think it is quite useful for Gillard if people who think she is too hard on boaties through eggs at her.

    Makes her look tough.

    Yep. Can’t help but think of the crap that the left used to give Thatcher. It just made her look tougher and more resolved.

  9. I note in Morgan’s analysis of these latest results the preference distribution (now allocated by the respondent’s 2nd preference answer, as opposed to the previous Morgan method of applying the preference allocation from the 2007 election) shows the Green preferences flowing 81% to the ALP/19% to the Coalition, which is almost identical to the 79.7%/20.3% actual Green preference allocation from 2007, but the ‘Other’ allocation is coming out at 28% ALP to 72% Coalition from respondent answers, as opposed to the 44% ALP/56% Coalition allocation from the 2007 Election.

    This says to me that the fear in some jittery quarters that Green preferences in 2010 would not flow to the ALP in numbers equivalent to the 2007 election has disappeared and confirms the view that the ‘parked’ Green vote was in fact ‘soft’ ALP voters on hiatus under the last period of Kevin Rudd’s tenure as PM.

    On that basis I think we can infer that those who may have thought that recent ALP ‘re-converts’ under Gillard would somehow now do another voting backflip and flood back to The Greens because of the alleged ‘lurch’ to the right are out of touch with the reality of voting intention. If anything the ALP’s revised AS policy will shore up the required votes in the marginals, and have little effect on The Green vote in the inner cities, as all those who were staying with the Greens are already there, no more than 10%, more likely less on election day.

    Overall, these are disastrous pollin results for the Abbott Coalition, and not much joy for The Greens, who have gone slightly backwards again.

  10. Where is Frank, anyway?

    Considering that he is often last to post on here at night, probably still in bed 😉

  11. [I think there’s filter software called Internet Nanny, so it may be worth a google.]

    I hope Frank went to Julia’s breakfast meeting cos we’ll get firsthand info back.

  12. The problem with the Nielson poll due out on Monday is that it was very over inflated for Labor last time and will probably show something more realistc this time around. This will play out perfectly for those who want to portray it as a dip in Labor support due to Gillard’s alleged gaffe.on AS.

  13. Well of course we don’t take Morgan polls seriously any more, but hey, 56% is 56%. I do like the gender gap findings. Do I smell a Bronwyn Bishop challenge? It’s your last chance, Bronny, carpe diem.

  14. 72# You jest, but I remember when you joked about Abbott being the leader of the Liberal Party. Don’t rule out Bronnie yet! 😛

  15. What’s the latest on the filter. Are we still getting it? I’m a bit out of touch doing other things today.

  16. [franks eggcitable but I doubt he would eggactly want egg on his face over being an eggstremist

    Tho someone may have egged him on]

    That’s very clever Gusface. You missed your calling.

  17. [What’s the latest on the filter. Are we still getting it? I’m a bit out of touch doing other things today.]

    A 12 month review of classification stuff, so no filter legislation till after it reports.

  18. I thought that Lee Rhianon and the Greens were a check of the major parties and actually cared about real issues. Now it seems that Rhiannon simply wants to cling to power in NSW, despite being exposed of rorting the system.

    She should refer herself to the ICAC to vindicate her claims of innocence…. that’s if she hasn’t done anything wrong…

  19. Oh God! Not you too Pebbles.

    What did you egg-spect? 😀

    Really, I should stop. Puns are, indeed, the lowest form of humour. It would be very egg-regious of me too continue…

  20. [The rally was held to protest against Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s proposal for a regional offshore processing centre for asylum seekers. Protesters waved banners and chanted: “Say it out loud, say it clear, refugees are welcome here”.

    Mr Soltani told the rally that Ms Gillard’s proposal showed she was the same as former Prime Minister John Howard and his Immigration Minister Philip Ruddock.]

    Mission accomplished – next.

  21. [Really, I should stop. Puns are, indeed, the lowest form of humour. It would be very egg-regious of me too continue…]
    I’m really ova these puns.

  22. Bronny’s actually in very good form for 67. I saw her striding at high speed along a corridor a while ago, she’s certainly fit. Up close she looks like a pekinese in drag. She is always absolutely immaculate in dress, hair, makeup, the lot. I’m told in committees she has always read the papers and is a fierce debater, although she can be charming when she wants.

  23. Does that mean at least in theory that we won’t get it?

    Possibly. Committee (independent or political) is often where shaky legislation goes to die.

  24. [Mr Soltani told the rally that Ms Gillard’s proposal showed she was the same as former Prime Minister John Howard and his Immigration Minister Philip Ruddock.]

    Excellent. I hope that quote gets on the 6pm news and the front page of the Tele, but I doubt it will.

  25. Lee has a campaign office with about a dozen people in it, why would she want people to call her parliamentary office where there are only two people there sometimes? It would just be a hassle for all involved.

  26. [Bronny’s actually in very good form for 67.]

    Almost the same age as Bob Brown, but probably more makeup.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 29
1 2 3 29