Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.
A bit of federal news:
• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).
• Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.
• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.
New South Wales news:
• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.
• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.
Boerwar. How as today’s score collated.
Sir Harry Lawson was MLA for Castlemaine at some point in his career, but I don’t remember if he was still sitting for that seat when he was Premier.
The Hurt Locker is brilliant. suspenseful and well worth a few hours of your time. Back in the 70’s there was a Brit TV series called UXB, ..similar story lines in part. Watch for the bonding sessions and a friendship.
Anthor MP for the Catlemaine area that became Preimer was James Patterson.
ManundaGreen
Thanks – I will put in the viewing effort then.
I might be wrong but I think Lawson was premier in the 1920s.
victoria
Explanation given some dozens of posts ago. Basically, Gillard looked and acted like a PM and Abbott was absent.
victoria, apropos a comment you made earlier about lessons of history, something I read today caught my fancy:
[One of the lessons of history is that nothing is often a good thing to do and always a clever thing to say]
Oh no! Does this mean she’s gonna miss out on an endorsement by Tony Abbott too? At this rate, she can probably forget about any support from John Howard or Alexander Downer…
At least Piers has had to drop the Hienie affair now.
Piers must be close to dropping another chin.
Boerwar. I looked back on previous post, point taken.
Laocoon. True, it is a bit like another saying translated from Italian, “what is done to what is said is an ocean away. (it sounds better in Italian), but you get my drift I hope.
Akerman has pronounced?
Two weeks in and that’s it? No good? A dud?
What fatuous arrogance!
Akerman’s post is dripping with vitriol only best delivered by him.
Ackerman may well go to his grave a bitter man having never seen another Coalition government.
So much for the idea that action on a carbon price/ETS should be delayed, and would of push up power prices beyond whrere they would otherwise be:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/carbon-delay-could-push-up-power-prices-20100709-1041i.html
This is completely consistent with the Treasury modelling and Lord Stern.
Hurry up Julia – and don’t listen to Arbib & Co whatever you do. Super Senator Faulkner is gunning for him and his ilk. Go with Garnaut – a carbon price followed by 18% reduction by 2020. Let’s go.
BK I hope you are right. The bitterness that oozes out of Akerman is palpatable.
BK – did the farm survive the storms OK?
Laocoon.
Yes – all OK. We locked up the livestock for the night (and today). On the ETSA website for power outages there were at least thirty active outages mid-morning.
Looks like Victoria is copping it now.
Well, it’s understandable. When Princess Leia strangled him with that chain on his sail barge, it really hurt!
cool 🙂
…and maybe Tassie
BK 919
A light post got toppled over by the winds near where I live. Interestingly though, the cable that feeds it power stayed intact.
TSOP
Glad it wasnt a heavy post
We seem to have afew of em on PB
Oh Gus, we’re not gonna play another pun game, are we? 🙄
I know it LIGHTENS the mood, but still 😉
Another beautiful day in Queanbeyan. Of course being so close to Canberra, we have an agreement with the ACT under which we get supplied with Commonwealth weather, which is much better that state weather.
TSOP
I didnt mean to be eggcruciating
😉
I used eggscuciating last night. You have to be original.
Gusface
Did you watch the rugby?
The All Blacks certainly put South Africa back in their box
😉
I am
🙂
Yes, the tramline ran from Box Hill to Doncaster.
And the was a railway from Brighton to Oakleigh Lake.
But don’t start me on John Monash’s on the Outer Circle railway.
lao
listened to the radio NZ call
They are so unbiased-not, but i reckon they hate the jappes more than us
Gus
cheats vs thugs
Umm… supercalifragilisticEGGSpialidocious?
It can’t be any more eggcruciating than hearing Abbott say over and over in his grating tone “if you want to stop the boats you have to change the government”, “if you want to stop this great big new tax, you have to change the government”,
“if you want to stop the wasteful spending, you have to change the government”.
lao
the kiwis just dont understand the rules
😉
The jappes dont respect the rules
🙁
“If you want to stop bad egg puns, you have to change the government.”
Zoom
A Great Big New Egg Tax?
Classic negative reinforcement.
If you want the irritant (negative stimulus) to go away change the government (desired action).
Although I see his comments, in essence, as saying: ” If you want me to shut up and go away, change the government”
Wow, my high school psychology yielded something! 😆
Gus
mmmm. Actually quite a nice philosophical classification system 🙂
Bakkies Botha headbutting Jimmy Cowan, in retailiation for Cowan holding him back, was a nice encapsulation I thought.
(I bet Chris Pyne would have been a halfback)
If you want to change the government change the Opposition Leader.
[(I bet Chris Pyne would have been a halfback)]
More likely a water boy!
“if you don’t want me to kill the puppy, you have to change the government.”
TSPO. LOL!
“eats babies”
Lao
the poms write the rules
😉
the wallabies try and interpret them
🙁
To speak of Pebbles, when’s your next stand-up routine? I’m more than happy to sell tickets for you…the Princess Leia gag was spot on
Under the old Commonwealth-State Weather Equalisation Scheme, the states were guaranteed 250 days of good weather a year, with extra good weather being transferred from Qld and WA to the southern states. But this was abolished by the Howard Government on the grounds that it was a socialist scheme which penalised the warmer states to subsidise lazy southerners. So now the states are exposed to the full force of the free market in weather, with Qld and WA having too much nice weather and Vic and Tas not enough. Of course this didn’t apply to the ACT, which gets its weather direct from the Commonwealth.
A good Lurk.
Yes I think that would have been the rosstown trainline.
Gus
[the poms write the rules
the wallabies try and interpret them]
…and French referee just ignores them
lao
the french cook em
🙂