Morgan marginal seats polling

Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.

ALP 2PP
2007 POLL SWING
Macarthur 50.1 38.5 -11.6
Robertson 50.1 48.5 -1.6
Eden-Monaro 52.3 59 6.7
Macquarie 50.1 60.5 10.4
NSW SEATS 1.0
Hasluck 51 50 -1.0
Brand 56.1 54.5 -1.6
Perth 58.1 57 -1.1
Fremantle 59.15 62 2.9
WA SEATS -0.2
Flynn 52.3 45 -7.3
Longman 51.7 43.5 -8.2
Dawson 52.4 49 -3.4
Leichhardt 54.1 54 -0.1
QLD SEATS -4.8
Corangamite (Vic) 50.85 55.5 4.7
Hindmarsh (SA) 55.05 56.5 1.5
Bass (Tas) 51 62.5 11.5
ALL SEATS 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,357 comments on “Morgan marginal seats polling”

Comments Page 9 of 28
1 … 8 9 10 … 28

  2. “The next election will be a referendum on tax,” Mr Abbott said. “The government wants a new tax, the Coalition doesn’t. It’s as simple as that.”

    So *plain speaking* abbott is saying it is a referendum on the MRRT but out of the other side of his mouth he is saying he will not accept voters decision if they vote labor, ie yes for the MRRT, and that he will vote it down in the senate (if he controls it).

    I hope the media put this to him and sooon.

  3. If these mining companies are so powerful how is it that State govts have not been thrown out for upping royalties.(albiet slower than needed).

  5. *returns*

    Bludgers may recall how we’ve noted several times that Rudd’s personal approval rating began to decline in October last year. We’ve noted that this was before the CPRS was dropped, before the RSPT, and while Turnbull was still leader and discredited by Grechgate. This has been a puzzle. So what was it that happened in October? I’d forgotten until just now, but now I remember:

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/oceanic-viking-stalemate-ends-20091117-ijml.html

    Don’t expect Gillard to be moving to the left on this issue any time soon.

  6. [Deadly serious, if you are approaching it from an economics perspective as Gittins is.]

    Except he is not, he is playing silly buggers. What economic perspective?

  7. Wakefield 403

    That’s because the State royalties that the big miners have paid is quite low relative to the amounts they have been making over the 10 years. No complaining means little scrutiny.

  8. Also expect that same bleaters from business who are complaining about getting a 1% rather than 2% reduction in company tax to speak out against Abbotts plan to not cut company tax at all and indeed increase it for some companies. Now, why wont they??

  9. Aristotle

    Ted Baillieu is about as useful as a third armpit and I’d rather Peter Ryan as Opposition Leader because Ted doesnt cut it in my book.

    I as a party member can probably only name 1 or 2 shadows and that is just pathetic I mean they’ve had 10+ years and the party is full of party hacks who couldnt get a Federal seat in other words they’re full of dead wood.

    Brumby is pathetic and the Libs may end up winning by default but they wont have deserved it no matter how bad Brumby has been.

    Malcolm will be probably a good Kim Beazley for us and even if he doesnt win but gets rid of the dead wood and brings the party to the centre-right from Tone’s right I’ll be happy. I cant see Hockey as wanting to be leader he has a family and it is more important to him than politics and Bishop should give her seat away IMHO sooner rather than later.

    [Perhaps the Liberal Party will then return to being a Liberal Party.]

    When it does it will probably win the election. I hope the moderates of the party like the Billsons and Keenans take over in due course they are the future IMHO.

    But until the rubbish shadow cabinet Tony has assembled is removed or retired then I cant see anything bright in the future of the party.

    I like Phillip Adams will not longer be a member of a political party that has lost its way. So I wont be renewing my membership of the Liberal Party next year and I will photocopy a cheque from the party for $10 that they owed me for overcharging my membership fees.

    I can tell you this quite bluntly Aristotle. If there was a competitive (in other words could win lower house seats), credible centre-right political party out there I would vote for them and not for the Liberals. In addition, if we had non-complusory voting I’d seriously consider staying at home on election day as neither side deserves/warrants me voting for them.

  10. [Also expect that same bleaters from business who are complaining about getting a 1% rather than 2% reduction in company tax to speak out against Abbotts plan to not cut company tax at all and indeed increase it for some companies. Now, why wont they??]
    It would just stick in the ACCI types’ throats.

  11. rua 406

    He’s not playing silly buggers, he’s having a go at everyone (Labor, Libs, Big and Small Miners, Business). This whole episode with respect to the RSPT and ETS has shown it is going to be difficult to undertake meaningful economic reform by any future government. That is the point of the article.

  12. Just on the betting markets reaction to the mining tax resolution, the ALP has shortened from 11/4 ON into 15/4 ON, in one day. That’s the average of the 5 bookies Mr Possum uses.

    There’s been a few big bets made.

    You can still get 5/2 ON with Luxbet.

  13. It’s official: Admiral Zheng beat Cook to Australia

    Chinese, Muslim and a eunuch. Now there’s a trifecta to give some apoplexy!

  14. [This whole episode with respect to the RSPT and ETS has shown it is going to be difficult to undertake meaningful economic reform by any future government.]

    Just as it has been for previous Govts. Its vomit and should be consigned to Today Tonight.

  15. Glen
    [I as a party member can probably only name 1 or 2 shadows and that is just pathetic I mean they’ve had 10+ years and the party is full of party hacks who couldnt get a Federal seat in other words they’re full of dead wood.]
    I wonder if this a statement that has broader across state politics generally. It seems to me that the quality has declined markedly over the last few decades. I cant speak for other states, but in NSW, the Liberals (+Nationals :lol:) do not especially impress, and the less said about the putrescent remains of the government, the better.

  18. Laocoon why would you want to go into State politics if you could get a seat in Canberra??

    All the best and brightest (of a hack lot generally) get taken up and head to Canberra whilst the swill and rubbish tend to head to Spring Street.

    Eventually the State Governments can go really I mean let’s face it the talent pool is only so big.

  19. Glen

    Did you see Keenan interviewed by PVO this morning? When van O can tie you in knots over policy you know it is time time retire. 🙂

  20. [Thanks, Glen.

    Well presented and honest!]

    No worries Aristotle.

    Others have been commenting on you getting gigs on ABC2 in the mornings. Well done for that!

  21. There’s no evidence that Zheng He visited Australia. This is like the Portuguese mahogany ship business – endlessly repeated, no evidence ever produced. And even if he did, the Chinese never settled here, so it’s not relevant. Nor did the Portuguese, French, Spanish or Dutch. It took the jolly old ENGLISH to see what a splendid colony our wide brown land would make.

  22. Ru like Tone says…

    Same dud product, different salesperson. It cant be easy to have to say a policy is good when it aint.

    Also Keenan is one of the few WA MPs who isnt a wacaloon and who is a moderate.

  23. [Also Keenan is one of the few WA MPs who isnt a wacaloon and who is a moderate.]

    True he did seem very confused about towing boats and where they should be towed too, but he did a good Scott impersonation. In fact he did a good Tone impersonation when PVO picked up on the fact that he just rejurgitated Tone verbatim he looked a bit flushed.

    Lamb Chop to the slaughter at the hands of PVO = no future.

  25. [Lamb Chop to the slaughter at the hands of PVO = no future.]

    You’re entitled to your own opinion but he can be credited with keeping the pressure of Gillard as Employment and Workplace Relations Shadow ensuring the ABCC was retained.

  27. Adam that was the whole point. No good reason for the Libs to go grandstanding on IR after Workchoices cost us the election.

    Plus I dont think Gillard notices anyone’s existence not less a 2nd Term MP from WA.

  28. [Laocoon why would you want to go into State politics if you could get a seat in Canberra??]
    True enough, but alot of service delivery is still done (or not done, as the case might be) at a state level

    Hell I would love to be Prefect of Sydney – so long as I could do it in a Baron Hausmann style 😀

  29. my say
    [Abbott’s political strength]
    I was refering to all the polls on refugees. All the polls have demonstrated that voters believe the Coalition is better at dealining with the boats.
    My say, you don’t have to convince me of Abbott’s lack of talent or vision for this country. It has been evident for some years that he doesn’t give a toss about Australia.

  30. [No worries Aristotle.

    Others have been commenting on you getting gigs on ABC2 in the mornings. Well done for that!]
    And also your half page in the AFR the other day too Ari

  31. Janszoon is the best documented non-Indigenous bumper-into of what was to become Australia.

    1606. His crew took casualities from Indigenous people in land adjacent to what was to be called the Gulf of Carpentaria.

  32. The problem for Keenan is not his ability, it’s his seat.

    Labor isn’t going to stay at a dismal 4 seats in WA forever. Until this mining tax issue, the ALP had a fair chance of winning up to 3 seats in WA, maybe even taking back Canning (at a very long pinch). If this plays out well for Gillard, one or two of them may be back in play.

    Glen is correct to say if the Liberal party returns to being a Liberal Party its chances of winning are greatly improved.

    Nick Greiner nailed the correct positioning for winning govt for a Liberal party:

    Warm, dry and green.

    Warm on social issues, dry on economic issues, and green on environmental issues.

  34. Psephos
    “Mandatory detention of boat arrivals was introduced by the Keating government, and for good reasons, not just out of fear of an electoral backlash.”

    Yes the last sensible policy on this issue was under the Fraser Government, it’s a pity the Liberals have fallen so far and Labor are still wolves on the issue of treating humanity with a bit of humanity.

  35. The thing about Michael Keenan is that, while he’s said to be a moderate Liberal, on the hot-button issue of IR he is no better than Abbott, Abetz, Andrews, Minchin, Howard, Costello and any number of other IR extremists.

    The Australian, 03 October 2008:

    [{The Coalition’s federal industrial relations spokesman Michael Keenan} … said the Liberal Party still had a “philosophical position” on workplace relations but “obviously we are also not going to argue with the Australian people about what they told us in 2007”.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/liberal-work-choice-lets-stop-brawl/story-e6frg6no-1111117651662

    The WorkChoices “philosophical position” is in their DNA.

  37. JB
    [That is the point of the article.]

    You are setting a pretty low standard if you think that piece was brilliant – unless you’re using ‘brilliant’ as the Londoners do at the moment where everything that is simply OK (like a cheese sandwich when you’re hungry) is referred to as brilliant.

  38. Indeed Aristotle

    Which is the point. Young potential ministers get marginals like Stirling whilst bench warmers like Jensen and Washer get safe ones.

    It is beyond me.

    If Keenan is defeated and the other rubbish talentless MPs in WA for the Libs are returned I’ll be beside myself in the fetal position on election night.

    I still think Cowan and Swan are likely to go before Michael is in Stirling and if he manages to keep his seat this time round he’ll be the first 3 term MP for Stirling in yonks.

  39. [I’ll be beside myself in the fetal position on election night.]

    I think this is the best prediction you’ve made here for some time.

    [first 3 term MP for Stirling in yonks.]

    Ron Edwards held it 1983-93.

  41. Ian verrender has another excellent article today on the MRRT

    Miners give peace a chance by digging into their pockets

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/miners-give-peace-a-chance-by-digging-into-their-pockets-20100702-zu2h.html

    At last, some sanity. The big miners finally have admitted the world won’t come to an end if they have to pay a fair rent for the windfall profits they hope to secure during the next century.

    And they’ve ‘fessed up to what was obvious from the start. They won’t abandon Australia. And they won’t for the simple reason they can’t afford to.

    Not only does Australia have fabulous resources, it offers one of the world’s most hospitable regulatory and investment climates for exploiting those resources.

    But there have been some serious casualties in the recent war. Truth was the first, followed by credibility. And in quick order came Kevin Rudd, Andrew Forrest, Tom Albanese and Tony Abbott.

    …Among the biggest porkies in this supposedly informed debate was that the resources – particularly the big iron ore deposits in the Pilbara and the coal mines of central Queensland – were developed at certain tax levels and now the government was shifting the goalposts.

    But no one ever suggested we impose those tax rates of yore and maintain them forever. Here’s why.

    Back in the mid ’60s when when BHP and CRA – the forerunner to Rio Tinto – began developing the Pilbara, the company tax rate was sitting at just under 40 per cent. Right now it is at 30 per cent and under the revised proposal will be cut to 29 per cent.

    When BHP and Rio expanded those mines in the 1970s and ’80s, the company tax rate was raised by various Coalition and Labor governments to just under 50 per cent. And this was at a time when the price for iron ore and coal were a mere fraction of today’s levels.

    In fact, Forrest’s mines, the ones being developed by Fortescue Metals, were uneconomic back then. The grades were too low, the deposits too remote and

    iron ore prices simply didn’t justify development. Both BHP and Rio Tinto passed them off.

    The corporate tax rate has been slashed over the decades because of tax reform, variously implemented by the Hawke, Keating and Howard governments.

    Capital gains tax, dividend imputation and the goods and services tax are just some of the radical changes in taxation that have been introduced in the past few decades, changes that have kept pace with a rapidly maturing economy. The newly named mineral resources rent tax simply is another step.

    To get this across the line, Julia Gillard has offered huge concessions. The top line rate was reduced from the original 40 per cent – the rate paid by petroleum producers – to 30 per cent and only iron ore and coal will be included.

    And the transition arrangements relating to depreciation will delay the full revenue stream into government coffers. But given Australia has perhaps a century of resources to exploit, a couple of years of concessions is neither here nor there.

    …Almost every major resource-endowed country realises that, when it comes to non-renewable assets, you get just one chance at maximising the benefits. The major miners were acutely aware that these negotiations would set an international benchmark that would be emulated globally. Hence the fight to claw back as much ground as possible.

    Company executives have a responsibility to act in the best interests of their shareholders while governments have a responsibility to protect the interests of their citizens and maximise the benefits from the resources they own.

    And the deal they are about to sign off on conveniently leaps across the time frames of their tenure. The new tax is not due to kick in until 2012. By delaying its full impact it will take several more years for the true effects to be felt.

    By then Marius Kloppers would have left BHP Billiton, Tom Albanese would be a distant memory at Rio Tinto and, if recent events are anything to go by, Gillard may well have been succeeded by a passing parade of prime ministers.

    By then, all would have been paid their bonuses, exit payments, statutory entitlements, long-term incentives and parliamentary pensions, and, if commodity prices continue to soar, the mooted changes may barely register as they are implemented.

    About the only certainty is that Xstrata – or perhaps the merged entity with its parent Glencore – still will be domiciled in Zug, Switzerland, where it will continue to fight the injustice of paying any form of tax to anyone, anywhere.

    Mining will not have deserted Australia in five years. It will have expanded. Resource prices, which stagnated after the early energy shocks of the 1970s, are likely to be far higher. And those rabid critics, who have been foaming with anger in recent weeks, will be off on some other crusade.

    Also some *interesting* articles in the weekend AFR, but I’ve had a busy day doing odd jobs about the place and tonight is pizza night with a few coldies so those articles will have to wait.

    🙂

  45. I want to know precisely what Abbott claims he opposed in the Howard Cabinet. I don’t believe for a second that he opposed the whole package root and branch. He presumably means that he opposed some of the more extreme bits. Obviously he didn’t oppose it enough to resign from Cabinet. Since he didn’t do that, he shares the Howard Cabinet’s collective responsibility for WorkChoices.

  46. [Since he didn’t do that, he shares the Howard Cabinet’s collective responsibility for WorkChoices.]

    Just as Gillard deserves blame for every single Rudd ‘Gang of Four’ policy failure.

  47. Oh Glen
    Is this meant to be the gospel truth on Abbott’s ‘supposed’ opposition to workchoices. Glen, I have a gallery of Abbott’s comments on Workchoices that clearly contradict his re-appraisal of history. He speaks extremely highly of Workchoices in Battlelines to the point of boasting.

  49. [He speaks extremely highly of Workchoices in Battlelines to the point of boasting.]

    … And as he says, Dee, when he gives it to us in writing we can rest assured he’s not lying … well, that’s how the theory goes anyway.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 9 of 28
1 … 8 9 10 … 28