Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.
| ALP 2PP | |||
| 2007 | POLL | SWING | |
| Macarthur | 50.1 | 38.5 | -11.6 |
| Robertson | 50.1 | 48.5 | -1.6 |
| Eden-Monaro | 52.3 | 59 | 6.7 |
| Macquarie | 50.1 | 60.5 | 10.4 |
| NSW SEATS | 1.0 | ||
| Hasluck | 51 | 50 | -1.0 |
| Brand | 56.1 | 54.5 | -1.6 |
| Perth | 58.1 | 57 | -1.1 |
| Fremantle | 59.15 | 62 | 2.9 |
| WA SEATS | -0.2 | ||
| Flynn | 52.3 | 45 | -7.3 |
| Longman | 51.7 | 43.5 | -8.2 |
| Dawson | 52.4 | 49 | -3.4 |
| Leichhardt | 54.1 | 54 | -0.1 |
| QLD SEATS | -4.8 | ||
| Corangamite (Vic) | 50.85 | 55.5 | 4.7 |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 55.05 | 56.5 | 1.5 |
| Bass (Tas) | 51 | 62.5 | 11.5 |
| ALL SEATS | 0.1 | ||
[I generally enjoy your posts, but I think if you include people as immigrants if some ancestor was born overseas, this discussion won’t get very far.]
So the US is not a nation of immigrants?
Pancho
You miss the point “we” welcome immigrants (we are real australians who ancestors immigrated here in a more benevolent golden age whether by convict ship or 10 pound passage)
But ‘We’ have to protect our way of life from ‘them’ (ie immigrants later in time)
Ironically “We” have no compunction in disrupting the way of life of “those” who came before us (even if they had dibs for 40,000 years)
Pancho you clearly dont understand the sub text here. Perhaps you need your hearing checked.
Gillard’s aim will be to neuter Boats as an election issue. She will not achieve this by changing policy. She has to change perceptions.
n 2009–10 the Humanitarian Program has increased to 13 750 places, which comprises two main categories:
* A total of 6000 places have been allocated to the Refugee category, which is for people who are subject to persecution in their home country and who are in need of resettlement.
* A total of 7750 places have been allocated to the Special Humanitarian Program (SHP) category, for people outside their home country who are subject to substantial discrimination amounting to gross violation of human rights in their home country. This allocation also includes Onshore Protection needs. Onshore Protection visas are granted to people who apply from within Australia and are found to be refugees.
A total of 13,770 refugees. We are being overwhelmed! They don’t fit into Mr Squiggle’s way of life! Run for the hills!
I suppose that the Boers and Huns were migrant nations. That is to say, nations that migrated. Even then there were quite a few stay-at-home Boers.
At some stage, I suppose, foreigners arriving here stopped being armed invaders organized along military lines, armed to the teeth, and under military command; and started being settlers.
But even that is debatable.
How are Freo going? Do things go better without coke?
I generally enjoy your posts, but I think if you include people as immigrants if some ancestor was born overseas, this discussion won’t get very far.
Tell that to the children of Vietnamese or Lebanese parents who came to Australia in the 1970s who are still told by halfwits like you – “we grew here, you flew here”. Children of NZ or UK immigrant parents on the other hand …
When the PM responds to the issue of Immigration she will do so having heard the views of her seat (Lalor)
The PM knows full well how this debate will be difficult, In opposition the PM and the ALP left had a very heated debate and both sides know full well how the other thinks on this issue therefore I don’t think this will be as hard a debate has it was the first time around.
In the earlier debate the PM and the Left faced off and ultimately the PM’s view became ALP policy and while some parts of mthe Left were unhappy but they were never angered anouh to move to have Gillard removed from Lalor.
If there is anyone with any doubt about Ms Gillards touchness this will put that to beb and wih due respect to the inner city types the marginal seat voters will need to be listened to otherwise the lodge will be home to a bible and budgie smugglers.
The only way humane treatment of asylum seekers can be moved forward is if there is a bipartisan approach. That’s not going to happen any time soon. In fact, perversely, the best opportunity for a move forward in this policy area is under a conservative government since the ALP will be less likely to try and score cheap political points on it.
Yes we do need a humane appraoch but the issue that upsets many people is that these people and yes I am aware that we are talking about less than 5% of the number of people who enter this country in a year
but the common view is these people are cheating their way into the country and the voters will not tolerate a Government that allows that to happen.
The issue is not if that is a fair view and name calling people is not how we win them over, the way to win them over is to ensure that the number of boats is kept to a bare minium
People who want to come to Australia have to be provided with a better way than by boat and the issue is really that simple, the voters have shown that they are happy with a high level of immigration as long as it is not by boat.
Well, my ancestors came here in 1831, so anyone who’s arrived after that is a Johnny-Come-Lately and almost certainly a queue jumper.
[The only way humane treatment of asylum seekers can be moved forward is if there is a bipartisan approach. That’s not going to happen any time soon. In fact, perversely, the best opportunity for a move forward in this policy area is under a conservative government since the ALP will be less likely to try and score cheap political points on it.]
All too true, Itep. And ironically, the conservative governments then claim the moral high ground but revert to dog whistling whenever there is any political advantage to be had.
Marktwain – you seem to be responding to a point I’m not making.
I agree with your sentiment in relation to refugees, the difference is that I don’t confuse immigration (ie permantly re-settling in another country) with refugee programs (ie seeking temporary refuge from a country that has got too dangerous to live in).
It’s ismple.
The govt. should charge Afghan/Sri Lankan immigrants in Indonesia $10,000 per person to come here (same as a people smuggler) and then return any others who end up on Christmas Island, which will be few, as they won’t have any money.
I don’t know why people say this is such a hard issue to solve.
Next!
Think of Australia as a good party, boat people as gate crashers.
You are not welcome at the party unless you have food or lots of beer. That for me sums up the situation.
So we can either hire more security to keep the gate crashers out, or give the party more beer and party pies to accept the new visitors.
What is needed is for the UNHCR to better do it job and what the International community needs to do is find away to remove boats from the picture.
Peoplew want security and piece of mind and they deserve that and will not be too bothered by an increased immigration rate as long as the economy is good but at the same tiem Australians don’t like cheaters.
[Well, my ancestors came here in 1831, so anyone who’s arrived after that is a Johnny-Come-Lately and almost certainly a queue jumper.]
Sorry BB, i raised you. My ancestors came here in 1421. The rest of you are simply illegal immigrants, especially Diog, he is persona-non-grata 😛
[It’s official: Admiral Zheng beat Cook to Australia]
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/11/24/1037697982893.html
Runawake that is a very clever way of looking at this debate.
Cook was stone motherless last in the discovery of Australia queue.
Even the French beat him
[and wih due respect to the inner city types the marginal seat voters will need to be listened to otherwise the lodge will be home to a bible and budgie smugglers.]
this problem ( as seen by some) was around last election why is every one getting so worked up this time is it becasue abbott will made it an issue
unless of course we get another tampa sail to our shores why will it be bigger than last electiion
in 2001 it was very big of course
but that was just after 9/11 surely we have grown a little bit since, then.
Can some one remind me what the last election re this subject was like, we had the
Hanef imprisonment etc. surely that would fired things up last time.
I am not saying not an issue but surely workchoices ( and if any one is silly enough to think it want be back well good luck to you) it will just have another name.
Health and education,
and while we are on that whats the next step their re health and barnett,.
You may all see it differently to me as we do not have many refugees
i think its to do with the weather we had a big hmong population but many left to go to thier families in north qld.
There are racist people here of course but if any one walked down the street with a burka on i think there would be a traffic accident all bumping in to the back of each other as people would think whos that etc. i may be wrong but i have never seen any one here wearing the full head dress
People that dont travel or go to the mainland ( and i can tell you they are here)
would never have seen a lady in burka of course there are many people with heads covered that doesn’t seem a problem we have had overseas students here for many years at the uni many of them muslims.
So perhaps we are isolated from what you all worry about over there.
Julia just keeps on with what she doing now just dismiss abbott and walk on with confidence re the present policy
you seem to be responding to a point I’m not making.
I agree with your sentiment in relation to refugees, the difference is that I don’t confuse immigration (ie permantly re-settling in another country) with refugee programs (ie seeking temporary refuge from a country that has got too dangerous to live in).
Sorry pointy nose, but you’ve been hoist by your own petard.
“180,000 is too many, too soon, too quickly” + “who feel little need to protect our way of life” = dog whistle
369
I even once saw an argument that Cook used a copy of a Portuguese map.
Julia in Queenslad today in response to Morrison on asylum seekers –
[“This is a complex problem, there is no simple fix,” she said.
“Anybody who pretends that a slogan and a bit of chest beating is going to fix it, simply isn’t telling the truth.”]
[Well, my ancestors came here in 1831, so anyone who’s arrived after that is a Johnny-Come-Lately and almost certainly a queue jumper.]
mine 1803 and dont the victorian dis like us when i tell them we settled victoria
true John Batman
of course the dutch where here in 1642
[nybody who pretends that a slogan and a bit of chest beating is going to fix it, simply isn’t telling the truth.”]
great answer
[great answer]
I agree, my say. Let’s hope she can satisfactorily take the wind out of the Coalition’s sails on this matter.
Sorry BB, i raised you. My ancestors came here in 1421. The rest of you are simply illegal immigrants, especially Diog, he is persona-non-grata
One side of my family came here in the 1870s, settled and had kiddies. Some stayed, some left for yet another new country. Then some of those kiddies wot lived in the new country came back to this country, and some of the grandkiddies of these kiddies wot was born here have now gone back to the “mother country”, wot no one remembers and is now a foreign country.
We are historically and hysterically confused.
To those saying QLD will be pivotal to the election, have a look at this:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=-1.8&vic=2&qld=-4&wa=-4&sa=2.5&tas=1.2&act=1.1&nt=-1.1&retiringfactor=1
It’s a scenario that matches most of the poll data going around, and assumes federal Labor is not nearly as unpopular in NSW as state Labor, and that big swings in QLD and WA will be partly offset by SA and VIC. Labor wins narrowly.
Now shift the pendulum one percentage point to the left in QLD and watch the seats fall. With a 5% swing as opposed to 4%, we now have a different result.
So, we can expect to see a lot of Ms Gillard in banana land (and Mr Abbott also).
Go Julia!
Daniel B
Very heroic assumptions. 😛
[Psephos…..I realise you’re trying, but what difference would that make? The law under which such a person operated would still have to be determined by Parliament, and the outcomes would still be the responsibility of the government.]
I think the spectacle of the PM (Rudd at the time) dropping everything and rushing off to Indonesia to deal with a boat full of refugees was a low point. The government need to create some political distance between themselves and the boat people so that the scale of the issue can be seen in its proper context.
We have been a destination for boat people on and off since the end of the Viet Nam War. We should try to position this issue as one of those phenomena that ebbs and flows over time and that needs to be handled in a systematic way, free from day to day politics.
There should be a way to handle the flow of boat people that does not rely on mistreating them, that is proportionate to the numbers of people involved, and that does not compromise our ability to determine our own immigration policy.
The heat needs to be sucked out of the issue. There are well-known Liberal/Establishment figures around that could be co-opted into this. Fred Chaney is one. There must be judges or lawyers or other professionals that could be called on to help de-politicize the handling of boat-people. Even the WA Government has a pragmatic line on this, one that is aimed especially at the humane treatment of the people involved, regardless of the politics that simmers around the issue.
The more I think about it, the more I like it. Maybe Petro Georgiou could be made Australia’s first Commissioner for Refugees and Asylum Seekers – a Liberal for a humanitarian project.
There is a very honourable Liberal tradition of reform in these areas, starting 200 years ago with the great William Wilberforce, to which Malcolm Fraser is a notable contributor. He could also be invited to become a Member of the Commission, along with Marica Langton and Frank Lowy.
I reckon it might work.
Ru, you mean the NSW bit? What do you expect to happen?
[Ru, you mean the NSW bit? What do you expect to happen?]
No the Qld bit.
Okay. But we saw in 2007 how volatile QLD voting patterns can be. Another interesting point will be Peter Brent’s* ‘sophomore surge’ and how many seats will be saved by it.
*Not really his.
When is Crickey going to bring out their election guide for 2010?
[But we saw in 2007 how volatile QLD voting patterns can be…]
Did we? Or was it the 234,000 people who internally migrated to SE Qld?
Crickey?
Is that what happens to Crikey when it gets old? 😉
[Is that what happens to Crikey when it gets old?]
No it’s what happens when you cant spell for s&*t chinda63. I ought to pay more attention to it when posting.
how funny that we should be discussing this subject i just got one of those
emails from some one i thought was a close friend
something about crossing borders when you come here you get job etc
i sent it back ( now another friend gone O well down to 1 i think)
sent back saying my oh was a refugee, They have known us for 42 years why on would they not stop and think. I received one from a liberal acquaintance on the north island recently something to do with the flag i sent that back as well.
Its best to let these people know how we feel about this subject.
[No it’s what happens when you cant spell for s&*t chinda63. I ought to pay more attention to it when posting.]
Hey, I’m not one to talk; I do it all the time! 😀
[Daniel B]
there has been no policies buy tone well not much that makes sence or has been costed
there has been no debates and now the rspt is settled
you must be assuming that everything will just stay like it is now.???
\or arent the liberals going to game enough to debate our ministers
Wots speling?
[So we can either hire more security to keep the gate crashers out, or give the party more beer and party pies to accept the new visitors.]
in 20 years time all our cricketers may be muslims now that would confuse and upset them o but JWH would be over 90 then
But think about we may have at least 5/8 after all would that not be good we could not beat the poms the other night so who know we should be asking them
Now do you play cricket do you like cricket would you like to try out for the local team etc.
I bet if we had a team half of muslim decent the r ns would try not to notice and just say great what great team we have,
do you lot over there call the english pome’s
prisiners of mother england
If you have not seen it already a brilliant piece by Gittins.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/battle-over-tax-leaves-labor-with-bloody-nose-20100702-zu2g.html
[Abbott’s political strength.]
dee but it is getting to the point that that is all he has.
if australians vote for him because of that god help us i say.
that mean s they want no future at all just life as we are nothing new
no broadband no new infrastructure no super top up nothing new in education.
you know nothing and in 40 years there will be nothing because thats when the mineral s start to disappear i read 40/60 all gone.
are the majority of us that stupid, they where not last election so why this one
and looking back i think Julia gives better answers than kevin did.
I can see a few things i never thought of some one said about him going to indonesia etc re refugees i thought that was strange also
perhaps kevin as much as we love and admire him really was a public service
Prime minister you know head of every department, he still thought like he did when
qld.
Julia just seems a little different we saw martin ferguson discussing the rspt for the first time, we need to see the other minister Chris evans is very good but very quite
i was wondering whom his deputry the ministeral secretary in the immigration area
who answers his questions in the lower house is it McClelland he is very impresive.
off to watch the reapeat game with the netherlands
[If you have not seen it already a brilliant piece by Gittins.]
is it positive cannot read things that are not any more
[If you have not seen it already a brilliant piece by Gittins]
Vomit. 😛
JB
Seriously, you call that brilliant?
Question for Glen.
How is Ted Baillieu’s standing within the VIC Libs? Is he supported or is he seen as no good? He may come close to winning, you know.
I think what’s likely to happen following the federal election, assuming the Coalition loses, is that Abbott will be challenged by Turnbull who will probably win the ballot. Then he’ll have an ally in NSW with O’Farrell, who’ll win the state election easily.
If Baillieu has a strong showing in November, or even wins, then there’ll be a power shift within the Liberal Party away from the conservatives back to the moderates.
Hockey will be important as will Brandis and maybe Julie Bishop, in making the shift complete.
Perhaps the Liberal Party will then return to being a Liberal Party.