Morgan marginal seats polling

Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.

ALP 2PP
2007 POLL SWING
Macarthur 50.1 38.5 -11.6
Robertson 50.1 48.5 -1.6
Eden-Monaro 52.3 59 6.7
Macquarie 50.1 60.5 10.4
NSW SEATS 1.0
Hasluck 51 50 -1.0
Brand 56.1 54.5 -1.6
Perth 58.1 57 -1.1
Fremantle 59.15 62 2.9
WA SEATS -0.2
Flynn 52.3 45 -7.3
Longman 51.7 43.5 -8.2
Dawson 52.4 49 -3.4
Leichhardt 54.1 54 -0.1
QLD SEATS -4.8
Corangamite (Vic) 50.85 55.5 4.7
Hindmarsh (SA) 55.05 56.5 1.5
Bass (Tas) 51 62.5 11.5
ALL SEATS 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,357 comments on “Morgan marginal seats polling”

  1. I just want to point out it’s nasty. If the ALP choose that path, they’ll probably get a boost in the polls. So I guess that’s good politics for them. I just hope they feel a twinge of guilt.

  2. Evidence, we now have one third of our workforce working part time or casually, some 33 percent of the population. i would think at least a quarter of these people would like to work fulltime, perhaps even half.

  3. Psephos at 971,

    So, in other words, the MOST LIKELY way refugees will arrive is by boat and without any papers…

    It’s way most people claiming refugee status arrive.

    In 2009, Australia received 8,427 applications for asylum (Tab 9). In the 2008-09 financial year, 1033 ‘boat people’ arrived and in the 90-10 financial year there were 4916 ‘boat people’ and in previous years the numbers were far fewer. So to say that most people claiming refugee status arrive by boat isn’t correct.

  4. Its’ time

    Yes, I’m sure it is happening… Which is what the Govt needs to sell.

    I asking, or rather promoting the idea of not changing the present system.

    I think the present system is a fair cmpromise. I said so when the Government was elected way back. I’ve also tried to pesuade the person I see daily at my work who is concerned about boaties. He’s a 64 year old, very nice gentleman, who is terrified about there being a wave of boat people… It’s slow but I might have moved him very slightly… I’ll keep plugging away.

  5. [Evidence, we now have one third of our workforce working part time or casually, some 33 percent of the population. i would think at least a quarter of these people would like to work fulltime, perhaps even half.]
    Why would you think so? What do the workforce surveys say?

  6. Astro

    Aristotle

    a simple but effective plan
    to wit
    Convene a commission or inquiry,appoint a co chair eg fraser/hawke

    hold public hearings flush out the concerns, and then report to parliament

    We need to speak of the hate that dare not speak its name

    the boaties are the festering sore created by one john Howard

  7. [What do the workforce surveys say]
    it’s all debatable. No 2 statisticians will say the same thing.

    The thing to point out is that arguments have always been made that the employment stats don’t tell the full story so I’m not exactly sure what marky’s point was other than more anti-Labor ranting.

  8. People should be terrified about the increase in mental illness,stress and poverty in this country being caused
    by governments who listen to right wing newspapers and shock jocks and television programs, and actually
    believe that such things are happening. Politicians who are not interested in dealing with the real problems.
    That is what we should be terrified about. Useless politicians and the people who work for them.

  9. Gusface

    yeah, it would be good to openly discuss the reality of the issue. I think understanding the reality would ease the tension.

    Marky Marky

    “That is what we should be terrified about. Useless politicians and the people who work for them.”

    YES!

  10. [Thirty three percent of the working population eligible to work people aged between 18 to 65.]

    [SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

    OVERVIEW

    There were 10.9 million employed people aged 15 years and over in September 2009. Of these:

    * 10 million (92%) were fully employed
    * 899,500 (8%) were not fully employed of whom 811,600 were underemployed.

    Of the 811,600 underemployed workers:

    * 735,900 usually worked part-time but would prefer more hours and were available to start work with more hours either in the reference week, or in the four weeks following the interview
    * 75,700 usually worked full-time but worked part-time hours in the reference week due to economic reasons (being stood down, on short-time, or having insufficient work).]
    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6265.0Main%20Features3Sep%202009?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6265.0&issue=Sep%202009&num=&view=

    Get your calculator out and get some real results, not your gut feelings.

  11. Glen

    Seriously, why would we need nuclear weapons?

    Hey, did you find about your refugee queue yet? Would be good for you, presonally, to find out. Or is it that you don’t want to know as it allows you to maintain your political beliefs peacably.

  12. Yep usual ranting. People who work just one hour in survey period are not counted. The ABS’s labour underutilisation rate, which includes “underemployed” workers who did not work as many hours as they wanted, stands at 10.6 percent, or more than 1.2 million people.

  13. [“That is what we should be terrified about. Useless politicians and the people who work for them.”]

    … and the people that vote. By the way, who will you be voting for?

  14. Keep the Chinese out.

    Probably wont need em for a while yet though Astro 😀

    Astro you’ll never have too many supporters for an open door policy in Australia but good luck to you trying to convince the majority of us that we’re all racists.

  15. So when I ask “what’s your solution?”, the answer is “there is no problem, people are just ignorant / stupid / racists.” Well, that won’t cut it, I’m afraid. In a democracy, if the voters say there’s a problem, there’s a problem, and if Party A can’t or won’t solve the problem, they will turn to Party B. Gillard is well aware of that, and it sounds as though she is going to announce her solution quite soon. I’m prepared to bet it won’t involve telling the voters they should get over it or that they’re all racists. We’ll just have to wait and see.

    *That’s all for now*

  16. [what great new ideas did Lindsay Tanner bring forth?
    People love him but for what?]

    I didn’t know his role was to bring forth great new ideas. I thought Rudd appointed him to do the job of Finance Minister and a pretty good fist he made of it too IMO!

  17. Glen

    You are confused with ‘open door’ and the present situation. Remember these boaties are all within Australia’s refugee intake numbers…

    I’m not calling you racist. I’m calling you confused and politically motivated. That you are prepared to single out a particular group (not a race, though) and use them as a tool for political gain. You are perpetuating myths in the hope of convincing others that this is a ‘serious problem’ and that the arrival of boat people is somehow an affront to our Sovereignty. This is simply garbage, but it won’t stop you using this to try and assist the people you want in power to gain power.

  18. [..Labor supporters here to understand that in the grab for power you are using people less fortunate as a political tool…]

    Surely only a John Howard would contemplate doing something like that. I would expect there was a Julia Howard. 🙂

  19. The other fact is that over the last year the long term unemployed number increased by some 72,000.
    Also people on the Disability support pension which stands at over 700,000 and has increased significantly over the last two years.
    Now, as part of its general assault on social welfare, the Rudd government in its budget in May has moved to make it far more difficult to qualify for and stay on DSP. Under the new rules, which come into full force in 2012, new applicants will initially be forced to find work or take unemployment benefits unless they can prove that they cannot work more than 15 hours a week. When fully operational, the new procedures will save the state over $300 million per year.
    Welfare Rights Centre director Maree O’Halloran told the Australian last month: “No previous government contemplated such a draconian tightening in eligibility for this payment. With savings of such magnitude, it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that the government is partly balancing its books off the backs of Disability Support Pensioners. Welfare Rights estimates that up to 112,000 people may be transferred on to other payments, which can be up to $120 a week less.”

  20. Psephos

    ““there is no problem, people are just ignorant / stupid / racists.” ”

    Never said that. You are just indulging in hyperbole.

    And as usual when it gets too tough you run away.

  21. [But probably not all, because some lefties love Julia because she is a woman.]

    Indeed and just so you don’t forget it is all dresses since the change.

  22. Psephos

    “I’m prepared to bet it won’t involve telling the voters they should get over it or that they’re all racists. ”

    I mean, that is simply a laughable thing to say. It’s really interesting that everyone else is quite capable of having a sensible discussion on this, but for whatever reason you have to indulge in this sort of hyperbole.

  23. [Surely only a John Howard would contemplate doing something like that. I would expect there was a Julia Howard]

    Kevin Howard did that when he announced the suspension of the processing of asylum claims for those from Afhganistan, a policy even the Abbott Liberals have vowed to put a stop to.

    Nice to see you’re still wallowing in bitterness and delusion though.

  24. Astro

    pseph is taking more than a few more hits than usual

    🙂

    Ari’s idea is quite good as it neutralise the MEME whilst a commisiioon of inquiry would have the power to name and shame

    (I would call it the bolta provsiion)

  25. [Indeed and just so you don’t forget it is all dresses since the change.]
    Maybe so TP, but did she sell out on the mining tax?

  26. The disability support pension, anyone who blogs here may suddenly require it tomorrow, as something may suddenly happen to them. But we now have a government who slowly no longer has any compassion other than for the shock jocks and The Australian newspaper.

  27. Gus , Rua , Itep & Boerwar

    My soluton to boat people
    Well Tony is on a winner : ‘turn back th boats’

    Most aussies see a boat arriving like a burgular , and think hell a million more boats may come
    Most aussies see them as intruders , ilegal entrants, possible terorists/ or criminals and que jumpers , so ‘turn bak th boats’ stikes a welcome nerve I reckon ….

    Committes no good

    So reckon needs public Govt education campaign of how people many per year come in boats vs 200,000 imigration numbers annual , plus educate we detain them ALL…check for health virus’s , national security clearanse , and refugee status …and those that fail any of th three tests we DO deport from C I…those that pass ar refugees Then xplain very brutal if we just tow out to ocean they will die

    prefer to attack , by educating peoples But give adds to someone who knows how to advertize please

  28. [Ari’s idea is quite good as it neutralise the MEME whilst a commisiioon of inquiry would have the power to name and shame ]
    This is hardly a short term solution (pre-election) which would placate the swinging xenophobic voters who might leak to or stay with the Lib dog whistlers.

  29. Ron

    I suspect we might have to agree to differ. It is not about the number of boaties which is almost pathetically insignificant, statistically. It is the boaties’ symbolic value. And it is of sufficient symbolic value for 13% of Australians to recently nominate it as the single most important issue facing Australia.

    Pathetic, really.

  30. [prefer to attack , by educating peoples But give adds to someone who knows how to advertize please]
    Attitudinal change will not be achieved in the short term (pre-election) and may not have a significant effect for a decade. That’s why a bipartisan approach is needed, otherwise a neo-Howard can undo the bridge building in an instant.

  31. Sorry

    the idea includes a suspension of any visa whilst commission determines findings

    have siittings in Indon,SE asia- so that the region knows we are not kidding

    aslo have aust wide sittings and report within 12 mths

    the banjo bashers and sheet wearers will be effectively shut in their box

  32. Gusface

    Yeah, well… He deserves it 😉

    I’m sad today too… Maybe that’s making me more aggresive? Watched the Dockers yesterday and watched in horror as Michael Barlow literally snapped his leg in half. Good grief it was revolting/sad/tragic…

    Although, not as tragic as many other things I suppose.

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