Morgan marginal seats polling

Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.

ALP 2PP
2007 POLL SWING
Macarthur 50.1 38.5 -11.6
Robertson 50.1 48.5 -1.6
Eden-Monaro 52.3 59 6.7
Macquarie 50.1 60.5 10.4
NSW SEATS 1.0
Hasluck 51 50 -1.0
Brand 56.1 54.5 -1.6
Perth 58.1 57 -1.1
Fremantle 59.15 62 2.9
WA SEATS -0.2
Flynn 52.3 45 -7.3
Longman 51.7 43.5 -8.2
Dawson 52.4 49 -3.4
Leichhardt 54.1 54 -0.1
QLD SEATS -4.8
Corangamite (Vic) 50.85 55.5 4.7
Hindmarsh (SA) 55.05 56.5 1.5
Bass (Tas) 51 62.5 11.5
ALL SEATS 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,357 comments on “Morgan marginal seats polling”

  1. [More than 90% of them ARE refugees.]

    If 90% of boat arrivals are eventually found to be refugees, then I would suggest that our border protection is working quite well thank you very much.

    In other words, the number of AS who are found to be NOT refugees is as low as 10%. Wow, our tough line on border protection must have been working for the last ten years.

  2. Astrobleme@1005 and 1028,

    A commendable effort. Unfortunately I am afraid you will have millions more to convince.
    You are applying reason and logic to an issue in which there is no logic and the fear is largely irrational. While I much admire your principle, I am afraid it is not much help to solve the issue. The Australian voting public has shown that once before that they would punish a political party for being “soft” on this issue. Your view, while highly principled and factually correct, is not shared by the majority. It is a regretable situation, but it is a situation any party that aspires to win government must deal with.

  3. Astrobleme @ 1005

    Your comment about the 64 year old gentleman highlights the problem for the Government. There are a lot of votes to be garnered from this age group and the thoughts of this person are are probably shared by people much younger than him. If their fears can be alleviated the chances of the government getting their vote should be considerably improved.

  4. briefly

    I’m not with Big Ship @ 973. Yet another attempt at censorship on this blog. There have actually been surprisingly many goes at censorship over the last half a million posts or so. Today we had several people trying to stop criticism of Rudd, Psephos thinking that unknown people should be prevented from calling known people liars, and now The Big ship thinking that we should be talking like, well, whatever…

    It is simple, really: don’t read what you don’t want to read. And if you want to improve the quality of the posts, go for it.

  5. Boerwar

    we actualy in agreement !

    I saw your symbol point and can not rebut it ….so I went for education Govt Adds to attack a solution as boat issue going to be with us for long time , maybe decades , so soooner truth gets out to public of how/what we actualy do with boat people at C I & that there small % to imigration its a start on a long rod…rather than leting Abbott /Libs hav all neg unhumane initiative

  6. Ron,

    Good to see you back comrade. Good first post after your prolonged absence! 😉

    I did get your e-mail address from William but am not much of an e-mail person and have had some difficult family issues recently so sorry I haven’t been in touch.

  7. I agree with Robot @ 1054 who I think is basically saying what I was trying to put across. Unfortunately taking the high moral ground doesn’t necessarily translate into votes.

  8. It’s nice to know that most here understand the boaties issue is a perception problem.

    I guess if we all stand up for the Govt’s current policy then we might make a difference and prevent them from modifying it and making it more ‘harsh’.

  9. [There have actually been surprisingly many goes at censorship over the last half a million posts or so. Today we had several people trying to stop criticism of Rudd,]

    ‘Yes, we are all individuals.’

  10. [Unfortunately taking the high moral ground doesn’t necessarily translate into votes.]

    Ii is satisfying at the personal level but, unfortunately, rarely rewarding at the political level.

  11. [988
    marky marky

    Deflecting the real issues, they have swallowed Murdoch and the Shock jocks views completely. Sums up who runs the country.
    I personally think Gillard is another lightweight politician and anyone different Murdoch will deal with them very swiftly- That is why Mark Latham never made it….]

    Latham never made it because he was unfit for the office – and it became painfully apparent the more voters saw of him. He was Labor’s Abbott.

  12. Astro

    sometimes the lowest common denominator is all that counts

    reading stuff from the 1950’s evoke todays almost primal fear

    someone said its is from shame not superiority that the great unwashed fear the “boaties’

  13. When everybody moves over to the same side of the boat, everything slides that way too. The Govt adopting a Howard-esque policy on AS helps move public thinking to that side. It gives the impression your bias is ok, don’t fight it, go with it. Making it difficult to move back at any future time. This is why we talk about governments leading rather than chasing polls.

    Is JGillard going to produce a Liberal Light Party to pick up those extra votes over there?

  14. Astrobleme – There are seeral well documented cases of people smugglers directing their passengers to dispose of their papers and to not cooporate with authorities.

  15. [Today we had several people trying to stop criticism of Rudd,]

    If it had some more useful purpose than allowing the Opposition and media more oxygen to use against the current Labor Government or just as an outlet for some ill-informed posters to vent their spleen, then it may have some benefit.

    Currently, there is “none” that I am particularly aware of.

  16. [someone said its is from shame not superiority that the great unwashed fear the “boaties’]

    Gus, so the Government should have concentrated on putting a shower in every home instead of batts into every roof :wink:?

  17. Astrobleme@1062,

    Tried with my parents with dismal failure (I might add they are both relatively recent immigrants from the same continent most the current “boatpeople” originated). Most on here would agree with you, at least to some extent. However, you don’t need me to tell you that the posters here represent a very skewed sample of the population.

  18. Marky Marky the DSP is a joke, the way this country manages the Disabled community is a disgrace bu regrettable no one is serious about dealing with it for if they did a few social workers will need to find alternative employment.

  19. [1057
    Boerwar

    briefly

    I’m not with Big Ship @ 973. Yet another attempt at censorship on this blog.]

    Well I’m not in favour of censorship and have been on the receiving end of my share of abuse, Boerwar, so I take your point. I did think the Bigship was calling for less inter-personal malice and more discussion. I am all for that.

  20. Psephos
    Posted Sunday, July 4, 2010 at 9:18 pm | Permalink
    Gee thanks

    I ask “what’s your solution?”, the answer is “there is no problem, people are just ignorant / stupid / racists.” Well, that won’t cut it, I’m afraid. In a democracy, if the voters say there’s a problem, there’s a problem, and if Party A can’t or won’t solve the problem, they will turn to Party B. Gillard is well aware of that, and it sounds as though she is going to announce her solution quite soon. I’m prepared to bet it won’t involve telling the voters they should get over it or that they’re all racists. We’ll just have to wait and see.

    *That’s all for now*

  21. Robot

    People will defend their worldview for a long time!
    but, it’s not like we have to convince everyone… Just enough people to defuse this as an issue…

  22. scorpio
    Posted Sunday, July 4, 2010 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    “Ron,

    Good to see you back comrade. Good first post after your prolonged absence! 😉

    I did get your e-mail address from William but am not much of an e-mail person and have had some difficult family issues recently so sorry I haven’t been in touch.”

    No problam Scorp
    i’ve had same family type bits , and still do
    but anytime you feel and time is rite for you , shoot off a note

  23. LTEP I remember – sure others remember as well – u were the the bad concern troll
    ltep
    Posted Sunday, July 4, 2010 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Of course itep it will not happen to you.

    I’m afraid I don’t know what you’re referring to.

  24. Astro. Your ideals are admirable but somehow I think it will be terribly difficult to change the mindset of a large number of people out there and I’m not referring to rusted on liberals but those who but for the “boats” issue would unhesitatingly vote for the Government.

  25. I feel sorry for Kevin Rudd too, but I’m too much of a pragmatist to take my bat and ball and go home – ie. vote for Abbott as a form of revenge against Gillard because she knifed Kevy.
    You can’t deny that Rudd contributed very much to his own demise – he should have consulted more and acted less like the defacto President of Australia.

  26. As i remember it “lose the Election Please” in 2007> Yes??????

    LTEP I remember – sure others remember as well – u were the the bad concern troll
    ltep
    Posted Sunday, July 4, 2010 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

  27. [he should have consulted more and acted less like the defacto President of Australia.]

    Indeed that is the meme that seems to have been promoted fairly well.

  28. LTEP before the last election he was known as Lose The Election Please – referring to Rudd, he did have a rationale for that, but I can’t remember it now.

  29. Border Protection policy is very dangerous and tricky for Labor. As I have previously said, and those who who understand political reality agree, Labor must move to the right on the issue.

    It could get tricky where Labor moves to the right and then Abbott attempts a wedge by moving to the left?

    The way I would go about it, is to try to neutralise the issue by offering the Coalition the opportunity to find a real bipartisan solution to boatpeople.

    If Abbott refuses, then he should be asked how he will stop the boats? Labor must then expose the Coalition for what they really are about, nothing but to score cheap political votes and fool people.

    By the way, the last thing we need is another bloody inquiry or commission. Stupid idea!

  30. Ziggy went:
    [As i remember it “lose the Election Please” in 2007> Yes??????

    LTEP I remember – sure others remember as well – u were the the bad concern troll
    ltep]

    bullseye!

    But he’s matured a bit since then and no longer really fits the “concern troll” profile.

  31. [The way I would go about it, is to try to neutralise the issue by offering the Coalition the opportunity to find a real bipartisan solution to boatpeople.]

    ie a commission of inqury

    [By the way, the last thing we need is another bloody inquiry or commission. Stupid idea!]

    Hmmm

  32. Rudd certainly got what he deserved.

    What I don’t like is so many of the original Rudd boosters (Garry Bruce, Psephos, Frank et al) hurled abuse and shouted down any stories of Rudd’s failings before his downfall as “Murdoch spin” or something else.

    Now post downfall, they’ve all come clean and said, ‘well yes, he was bad, controlling, swore at backbenchers etc and he had to go as we would have lost’.

    This candour was very much lacking while Rudd was dear leader. That’s what I find so two faced.

    In any case, you’ll understand why I take anything Psephos and co says now with a grain of salt!

  33. “you can’t deny that Rudd contributed very much to his own demise – he should have consulted more and acted less like the defacto President of Australia.”

    Anyone who read my #817 will see i (reluctant and sad) drew same polling decision assesment as 115 Caucus did justifying a Leedership change Its a value judgement they made , i concur with It did not stop me daying I feeling sad that CPRS decision mainly caused both POV collapse to 35% & his neg aproval ratings which seems quite unfiar , and ALSO praising Kevin07 ‘s wonderful core left Reform acheivements & to thank him

    Tose that do not agree with tht5 polling assesment in marginals as I do , prob feel even worse Sometimes abit of grace helps , and reminder who IS th enemy…and it aint here

  34. Thomas Paine,

    [ he should have consulted more and acted less like the defacto President of Australia.]

    [Indeed that is the meme that seems to have been promoted fairly well.]

    And strangely enough, there was absolutely “no”mention of all or most of the current character assassination talking points, up to a day before the coup, by those now promoting them for all they are worth.

  35. Scorpio:
    [And strangely enough, there was absolutely “no”mention of all or most of the current character assassination talking points, up to a day before the coup, by those now promoting them for all they are worth.]

    Exactly! That’s what is so outrageous and revisionist.

    It was these same people who told us how wonderful Rudd was, and that all dear Labor supporters must know he’s the second coming. Now they’re telling us he was the devil and Julia is actually the messiah and she was so all along…

    It’s so 1984 it’s not even funny anymore!

    While Scorpio and I probably disagreed about Rudd pre-downfall, I give Scorpio credit for having consistent view about him!

  36. Thomas Paine,

    [LTEP before the last election he was known as Lose The Election Please – referring to Rudd, he did have a rationale for that, but I can’t remember it now. ]

    I don’t think even Ltep can remember what his rationale was then! 😉

    Unfortunately, I have some doubts as to exactly what it is “now” even! 😉

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