Julia Gillard’s first Newspoll confirms the trend of other polls, with Labor’s primary vote storming back seven points to 42 per cent, but the yield coming mostly from the Greens (down five to 10 per cent). The Coalition vote is steady on 40 per cent. This results in a relatively modest shift on the two-party preferred vote, with the Labor lead increasing from 52-48 to 53-47, but it makes that vote share a lot less dependent on hypothetical and probably over-generous preference estimates. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 53 per cent to 29 per cent, compared with Kevin Rudd’s final figures of 46 per cent and 37 per cent. Tony Abbott can at least take heart from a return to a net positive personal rating, with approval up four to 42 per cent and disapproval down eight to 41 per cent.
Preselection news:
• Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports from “senior party sources” that Labor polling in Melbourne showed the Greens running neck and neck with Lindsay Tanner. On the question of Tanner’s successor as Labor candidate, Andrew Crook from Crikey reports there is “little standing in the way” of Andrew Giles, chief-of-staff to state minister Lily D’Ambrosio. Giles is secretary of the Socialist Left faction, which dominates local branches. However, Melissa Fyfe’s sources say they are hoping to find someone with a higher profile. Other possible contenders are ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell, who according to Crook is “said to be owed a shot at pre-selection after being turned down for the ACTU presidency in favour of Ged Kearney”, and refugee activist Paris Aristotle. UPDATE: VexNews reports the Socialist Left has endorsed Cath Bowtell, with Andrew Giles agreeing not to run, and that Bowtell’s endorsement by the party is now a fait accompli.
• Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce, has won Liberal National Party preselection for the new Queensland seat of Wright, after initial nominee Hajnal Ban was forced out. Most prominent among his defeated rivals was former Blair MP Cameron Thompson.
UPDATE: Essential Research has done what it needed to do by dividing its results between this week’s polling and last week’s, and it confirms the overall picture. Kevin Rudd was on a gentle recovery trend in his last days – his final poll shows Labor improving from 51-49 to 52-48, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 38 per cent and the Coalition’s down one to 40 per cent – followed by a fillip on the primary vote under Julia Gillard. Interestingly, the Greens vote fell solidly over both periods, from 14 per cent to 11 per cent and then to 9 per cent. Labor’s primary vote under Gillard has gone from 38 per cent to 42 per cent, with the Coalition’s down one to 39 per cent. Forty-seven per cent approve of the leadership change compared with 40 per cent opposed, with an even split as to whether respondents declared themselves more (26 per cent) or less (24 per cent) likely to vote Labor now. Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49 per cent to 29 per cent, but Newspoll’s resounding improvement in Abbott’s ratings is also reflected in Essential, with his approval up five to 40 per cent and disapproval down 11 to 39 per cent. Again, respondents would prefer a full term (41 per cent) to an early election (28 per cent). There are further questions on parental leave, the mining tax and future economic conditions.
UPDATE 2: Excellent post by Possum analysing polling trends of the late Rudd epoch.
Oh dear. A Rudd-bashing panel.
[Yes, what is his story? Is he not interested or is there pre-selection resistance?]
He missed out of Fowler in 2007 because he wasn’t female.
Someone I would’ve thought being the ALP’s first Aboriginal selected to a safe seat should’ve canceled that out.
Scarps
Roy rogers horses filly
Is Trioli hosting?
Thanks GG (and Gus too)
[Roy rogers horses filly]
And his wife was Dale Evans as I recall.
Barnaby going into bat for Rudd on Q&A
Can you believe it!
Wangker
Shows On
Normally she is the reverse of that
😉
[Is Trioli hosting? ]
unfortunately.
fessions
Shorten has aged noticeably
[Crikey should be deeply embarrassed that they run that immature drivel from Rundle.]
Apologies William, didn’t see your comment and you are right, the bit on morbid obesity is puerile and I must admit I just blanked that rubbish out.
What I did find amusing was Ruidd catching him out on mailing allowances that are not necessary for a senator that far down the ticket but of course are for a faction power brokwr.
But it does raise the less amusing question; why should taxpayers fund internal party machinations?
Shorten telling porkies. 112 caucus members voted.
He’s forgotten the sequence of events from last week.
The Roy Rogers bit may be true. But, the genesis was an Outside Broadcast when Trioli did the PM shift on 774 in Melbourne. It was at Essendon’s home ground back in the days when Essendon played off in Grand Finals. Her co hosts were two AFL legends Peter “Crackers” Keenan (nickname totally appropriate) and ex Champion Carlton star David ‘Swan” McKay (because he ran like a swan swimming).
Anyway, Trioli said it was unfair that she did not have a nickname. Whereupon McKay bestowed her with Trigger Trioli. And, didn’t she cut up bad. Probably, why it has stuck.
Trioli has the elvira thing going on, I can see this turning into a union bashing session.
[Shorten has aged noticeably]
gus, 30 years
[Apologies William, didn’t see your comment and you are right, the bit on morbid obesity is puerile and I must admit I just blanked that rubbish out.]
Which Crikey piece are you referring to?
Short Shorten
Abbot, Abbot, Abbot
the two crazies are getting angry
cagematch?
I’m not watching Q&A so I’ll be interested to hear what people think about Shorten’s performance. I find him to be unimpressive. Not a dud that’s for sure but there’s something missing … lack of passion maybe.
barnyard is goose and mitchell has minced him into pate
tom
bill is contrite
i think the message has got home
Gus: he’s aligned with the Murdochracy in Albrechtsten. Only Barnyard representing free thinking tonight. 😥
Why does the ALP feel the need to trash its leaders? They disowned Keating until Rudd turned up to finally own the economic restructuring his (and Hawke’s) govt had undertaken. They had spent the previous decade trying to pretend Paul hadn’t existed. And now, apparently, it’s all Kevin’s fault for everything that has gone wrong in this term. It drives me freaking batty.
[ably
[[gus, 30 Finnigans
Posted Monday, June 28, 2010 at 9:53 pm | Permalink
Shorten has aged noticeably]
gus, 30 years]
i never give that programe the pleasure of my company in fact no abc programes
latley we have gone commercial mostly sport i cannot beleive it and we will not be returning either.
have noticed some here are now not so crabby with the abc??
Shorten saying the Gov lost its way because of policies that he among others persuaded Rudd to adopt.
Joyce is the only one making any kind of sense, believe it or not.
It tells you everything that you need to know about Gillard when the hard right are supporting her.
[tom
bill is contrite
i think the message has got home]
i bet he got a lot of emails
I think it was a bad decision for shorten to have gone on q and a should of said he had the flu
my say
he aint crowing thats for sure
poor tone is now firmly the theme of the narrative
dropped in to my local members office today and explained that
tweeting tells all.
[I’m not watching Q&A so I’ll be interested to hear what people think about Shorten’s performance. I find him to be unimpressive. Not a dud that’s for sure but there’s something missing … lack of passion maybe.]
in q t he looks very board and i can understand that i would be to having to sit there for two hours every day listening to all that when you could be working
I am going to market a wobbly barnyard head to stick on the dash
his own head spins at the guff he spews forth
[ I find him to be unimpressive ]
I think he will go far. You don’t become secretart of the AWU without being hard, or without significant organisational skill.
[ am going to market a wobbly barnyard head ]
are you in sales gus so was i
>secretary
[poor tone is now firmly the theme of the narrative]
in what way, finns is proably thinking dam woman why doesnt she just watch it
my say
i could tell
😉
really wish i could tell you what but then every one in tas may know who i am
you have it in your cupboard every one does
made good money travelled a lot and worked to hard had to give it up after 16 years
You sold skeletons?
i came in hear gus to look for a cross st needle so better go,
enjoy the evening. i read on my sons face book tonight he is so upset in Amsterdam at the moment so that good for him
but i tried to cheer him some very not so nice people geeing him up but he gave it back lovely boy my youngest so socially conscious,
as you are i think
Fulvio
GOLD
[You sold skeletons?]
i cannot type for laughing no wonder i love you all.
that is so funny
[in what way, finns is proably thinking dam woman why doesnt she just watch it]
my say, if i can say that was too deep for me. i normally just try to figure out the meaning of life
still laughing , this is better than q and a you should write a comedy show
fulvio is that italian
[Why does the ALP feel the need to trash its leaders? ]
With Keating maybe the fell into line with the MSM meme and were to gutless to stand up for the guy they know did a number of good things (hmmmm), instead preferring to remember him as the person who lost, who had a prickly character (hmmm). Basically Labor acted like they were ashamed of him until Rudd resurrected him to his rightful place against Howard.
Now it is Rudd’s turn. In the first instance they have to denigrate him for the sake of Gillard’s purity. Later the will fall in behind the MSM meme – Rudd bad until another leader one resurrects Rudd as a Labor hero that among other things saved us from Howard Workchoices 2&3&4 as well as keep hundreds of thousands in work. It is amazing how much the MSM runs the Labor narrative even to murdering their own.
[y say, if i can say that was too deep for me. i normally just try to figure out the meaning of life]
we need a song nite all
I think Gillard made the right choice (in fact, the only choice) not giving Rudd a Cabinet post. Only bad things could come from having him in the room at this stage.
Different story after the election. Then she’ll have her own legitimacy as PM and he’ll have to toe the line if he wants to be a Minister.
The Fulvio part of me is. THe rest of me is pure smartarse.
Virginia Trioli on Q&A tonight is an utter failure, repeating the lie that ‘faceless union leaders’ brought down Kevin Rudd, even mentioning Paul Howes by name. We know that the decision was already taken to challenge to Kevin Rudd on Wednesday of last week many hours in advance of Howes announcement of support later in the evening.
Barnaby Joyce is a shrieking looney, with no idea of the political process under which our nation operates. He seems to be under the impression that we vote for a President, rather than a party with a leader elected by that party. The Prime Minister is a position that is not even mentioned in our Constitution.
What sort of a world do we live in now when Janet Albrechtsen comes to the defence of the Labor Party and calls Trioli out for the distortions she is propagating. She is certainly a conservative, and she’s cruel, but fair, like Dinsdale Piranha. Go Janet!
Harold Mitchell just told Barnaby Joyce to shut his mouth and stop talking over the top of everyone.
Bill Shorten has been maligned by Trioli in every question she has asked of him, with a sneering Liberal spin to the presentation of each one. He has been the soul of restraint so far in responding to her loaded questions. Magda Szubanski and Christine Wallace have been reasonable and fair, sitting on either side of the maniacal, misogynistic Joyce, who is so far been totally out of control, and virtually frothing at the mouth – put a bag over his head, or slip him a sedative in his water!