Julia Gillard’s first Newspoll confirms the trend of other polls, with Labor’s primary vote storming back seven points to 42 per cent, but the yield coming mostly from the Greens (down five to 10 per cent). The Coalition vote is steady on 40 per cent. This results in a relatively modest shift on the two-party preferred vote, with the Labor lead increasing from 52-48 to 53-47, but it makes that vote share a lot less dependent on hypothetical and probably over-generous preference estimates. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 53 per cent to 29 per cent, compared with Kevin Rudd’s final figures of 46 per cent and 37 per cent. Tony Abbott can at least take heart from a return to a net positive personal rating, with approval up four to 42 per cent and disapproval down eight to 41 per cent.
Preselection news:
• Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports from “senior party sources” that Labor polling in Melbourne showed the Greens running neck and neck with Lindsay Tanner. On the question of Tanner’s successor as Labor candidate, Andrew Crook from Crikey reports there is “little standing in the way” of Andrew Giles, chief-of-staff to state minister Lily D’Ambrosio. Giles is secretary of the Socialist Left faction, which dominates local branches. However, Melissa Fyfe’s sources say they are hoping to find someone with a higher profile. Other possible contenders are ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell, who according to Crook is “said to be owed a shot at pre-selection after being turned down for the ACTU presidency in favour of Ged Kearney”, and refugee activist Paris Aristotle. UPDATE: VexNews reports the Socialist Left has endorsed Cath Bowtell, with Andrew Giles agreeing not to run, and that Bowtell’s endorsement by the party is now a fait accompli.
• Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce, has won Liberal National Party preselection for the new Queensland seat of Wright, after initial nominee Hajnal Ban was forced out. Most prominent among his defeated rivals was former Blair MP Cameron Thompson.
UPDATE: Essential Research has done what it needed to do by dividing its results between this week’s polling and last week’s, and it confirms the overall picture. Kevin Rudd was on a gentle recovery trend in his last days – his final poll shows Labor improving from 51-49 to 52-48, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 38 per cent and the Coalition’s down one to 40 per cent – followed by a fillip on the primary vote under Julia Gillard. Interestingly, the Greens vote fell solidly over both periods, from 14 per cent to 11 per cent and then to 9 per cent. Labor’s primary vote under Gillard has gone from 38 per cent to 42 per cent, with the Coalition’s down one to 39 per cent. Forty-seven per cent approve of the leadership change compared with 40 per cent opposed, with an even split as to whether respondents declared themselves more (26 per cent) or less (24 per cent) likely to vote Labor now. Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 49 per cent to 29 per cent, but Newspoll’s resounding improvement in Abbott’s ratings is also reflected in Essential, with his approval up five to 40 per cent and disapproval down 11 to 39 per cent. Again, respondents would prefer a full term (41 per cent) to an early election (28 per cent). There are further questions on parental leave, the mining tax and future economic conditions.
UPDATE 2: Excellent post by Possum analysing polling trends of the late Rudd epoch.
surprising a newspoll out
that came out of the blue
From the previous posting……
[Again we find it fashionable to diss the ex PM in order to justify the now.]
I have expressed this view for some time, and, as I have said, think that Wayne Swan also got things wrong. But beyond this, the processes adopted by Rudd – which excluded roles for the Cabinet and caucus – also contributed to the errors. Hopefully, a more inclusive and democratic approach to policy creation and adoption will prevent serious new mistakes.
Now this is vindication. The primary vote has been rescued.
Back again,
When my head sops spinning… this is making sense in a sureal way. A most amazing election is comming up. Goodbye KR, Hello Julia!
The ball keeps rolling!
briefly@3
It seems that it’s a waste of time and effort to try and explain this to some people who are now deciding to sabotage Gillard by twisting what gets reported into a negative – just like the media did to their fallen hero.
Gillard arguing for delaying the ETS and the reasons behind it might help get the Greens vote to go back up again soon. It points to an earlier election to keep the honeymoon effect.
scorps and TP
That quote could easily be Abbott’s. In fact, I’d be surprised if he hasn’t said very similar things a few times.
As you say even Howard wouldn’t have been as insipid as that.
I’m not impressed so far.
I think her first decision was to allow brown coal to be exported. That kind of set the tone. And there is honeymoon in the polls. I think Labor stuffed this one up. Their hands look very bloody and unsure.
From the previous thread.
[ But the Prime Minister has publicly confirmed she led the push to delay an emissions trading scheme.
Labor sources have confirmed the focus of her pitch for the environment vote will be on renewables — boosting the use of solar and wind power to help meet the government’s pledge to slash greenhouse gas emissions.
But arguing that community consensus is “not there yet” on an ETS, Ms Gillard yesterday backed the need to put a price on carbon to encourage businesses to change their practices; she offered no timetable on delivering one.
The newly-installed Prime Minister said yesterday she accepted “my fair share” of the responsibility for the decision to delay the introduction of an ETS, a policy backflip that coincided with a collapse in Kevin Rudd’s polling.
Asked if it were true she had argued for the ETS to be dumped as part of the Rudd government’s powerful kitchen cabinet, Ms Gillard confirmed she had.
“I was concerned that if you were going to do something as big to your economy as put a price on carbon, with the economic transformation that implies, with changing the way in which we live, you need a lasting and deep community consensus to do it,” she told the Nine Network.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/gillard-says-she-led-push-for-delay-on-ets/story-e6frg6n6-1225884955922?from=public_rss%5D
A capitulation. This is worse than Howard’s effort.
Are we to get the same capitulation on the tax?
Now wouldn’t it be ironic that at the end of the day it was only Rudd willing to go out their and fight the fight and do the right thing by Australia?
We are getting a better quality of words from Julia, but the message is sounding a bit worrying.
If the coup hadn’t happened, then Rudd would most probably got this result anyway.
Once these latest revelations start becoming more widely known and digested, it is more than possible that the polls might just start a rapid decline once again.
I am hoping against hope that true Labor supporters aren’t sold out again on the altar of political opportunism and corporate interests being served.
Oops, should be no honeymoon.
So if this is confirmed as a capitulation do we see a flight back to the greens?
I will wait as you don’t believe what you see written in the papers.
Thomas Paine,
Rudd wore this and it is to the shame of the plotters that he did. There is a bit of a nasty smell coming out now.
Hoo boy. England getting thumped, trounced and beaten into submission by the Germans.
Frank, you have a point. But I don’t think it is a waste of time. You have to make the arguments, particularly to your friends and allies.
Well is the primary up because the defectors to the Greens has occurred?
I would have expected a more impressive result, but this is just one poll. We (Labor) should be hoping that it is a result from the lower end of the MOE.
I hope Julia has some courage and doesn’t go weak on policy. Otherwise she will be in trouble. Maybe she was waiting for the Newspoll before making a decision on Rudd.
Early days, but if this is the size of the bounce then Rudd will be needed in the ministry to retain his fan base.
Its amazing noone has picked up on the obvious subtext of Julia’s comments that she needs to rebuild consensus over climate change. And that’s not new, it was something that Tanner and Swan tried to get through on several interviews when not being deprived of oxygen.
The real problem is that the ordinary punter is confused if not actually brainwashed by the climate change deniers. That battle was busy being lost last year, and in part thanks to the toxic media and also the Senate enquiry that the Greens (to their permanent discredit) allowed to go ahead.
She’s quite right. Not enough people believe strongly enough in climate science for there to be any votes in doing anything that smacks of taking a hit in the hip pocket.
But the real blame lies with the toxic media, and the stupidity of ordinary people.
cud chewer@17
Hear Hear, but alas our Tinfoil hat merchants are using this as a tool to sabotage the new PM.
The close involvement in the leadership changeover by the NSW ALP Right, wouldn’t have been influenced by this either I suppose. Making the coal fired power industry more profitable to push up the price for privatising the NSW power providers wouldn’t have had an effect on what happened. Nah, of course not. Just silly to think that!
[THE NSW government will allow companies to bid for multiple energy retailers and trading rights to electricity generators.
This is part of a bid to inject greater flexibility and competitive tension into its fraught multi-billion-dollar energy privatisation.
The move could radically reshape the national electricity market — which trades $8 billion to $10bn each year — by allowing the private sector to bid for more than one business in each asset class.
This development is a key plank of the strategy by NSW Treasurer Eric Roozendaal to ensure a new player enters the market to compete against incumbents such as AGL and Origin Energy.
While the government had previously said it would allow bidders to pursue vertical integration by picking up both a retailer and a “gentrader”, it is taking a step forward by allowing bidding for multiple assets in the same class.
Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
Ahead of the datarooms for the sale opening on Thursday, the government has also decided that to qualify as a new entrant, a bidder must not have control of more than 520 megawatts of installed electricity generation capacity.
“That’s really to indicate we are serious about getting new entrants and we want to encourage that,” Mr Roozendaal told The Weekend Australian yesterday.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/more-flexible-power-sell-off-in-nsw/story-e6frg8zx-1225884472858
Thomas, Gillard is being candid and offering an explanation. This is more than Kevin was prepared to do. She is also committing herself to fight for support for a price on carbon in the domain of public opinion – to achieve a consensus. She should not be derided for this. She should be applauded. This is precisely what Rudd should have done in 2009 but did not do. His failure to explain the CPRS/ETS and argue for it with the public left his policy vulnerable to Abbott’s scare tactics. I am pleased that Gillard is taking this approach, which might eventually mean that a price on carbon is put in place. At last, some practical politics instead of attempts at rule by decree.
If people don’t believe in climate science now they never will, until their homes become houseboats.
That is a cop out, even after years of discussion the public probably has no idea, it is and will be over their heads, they just take it on good faith that the scientists and govt have got it covered.
Rudd and Howard went to the last election with a policy, Rudd and Turnbull had an agreement on a policy and we had a great big meeting in Copenhagen over it. Now we have to build a consensus over it?
It is simply a cop out, a watering down, which remains consistent with what she urged Rudd to do. But why? It doesn’t make sense. You have some business out their telling the govt to do something.
So what is it? The resurrection of the green mafia?
Gillard shouldn’t be squibbing on words now, she should be leading.
Thomas @9, see above.
Neither Rudd, nor Julia, nor JC himself could win on an ETS at this point. And Julia is making noises about a carbon price to please the green voters. Thats pretty obvious. What would you do differently?
The real test is whether there is serious funding for utility scale renewable power stations. Double the funding for the solar flagships program (and incidentally, try and find some bureaucrats that understand 3rd generation photo voltaic materials), invest (100s of millions) in geothermal. Invest (not just pilot plants but the real deal) in wave energy.
I agree that Rudd just doesn’t have the knack of getting his message across in quick easy phases. And with a toxic media that creates trouble for you. It is a wonder he never got better at it, or didn’t have a writer. When he was angry he was good. He needed to get angry more often – but then they say he has a glass jaw.
Anyway very early days. Have to see how it is after a few weeks.
The polls I hope are not the extent of the honeymoon.
[19
scorpio
Making the coal fired power industry more profitable to push up the price for privatising the NSW power providers wouldn’t have had an effect on what happened. Nah, of course not. Just silly to think that!]
This is wide of the mark, scorpio. The policy seems to be aimed at increasing competition – this usually has the result of limiting profits and improving consumer services and prices, and not, as you assert, pushing up profits.
Shamaham:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/wrong-reading-of-poll-results-a-primary-failing/story-e6frgczf-1225884950149
It’s interesting to see that Frank now has a whole new set of opinions to match what Labor happens to be saying at the moment.
I don’t know if that makes him a sockpuppet, brainless, completely unprincipled or a Labor weathervane.
Thomas @21..
[If people don’t believe in climate science now they never will, until their homes become houseboats.]
oo I love hyperbole because its self defeating. The reality is that climate science got better treatment in the press prior to the last election. And if you read Possum’s earlier posts there was a clear consensus (it was a vote winner) back in 2008. Not so now. People are fickle, but it doesn’t take aeons for them to change either.
[That is a cop out, even after years of discussion the public probably has no idea, it is and will be over their heads, they just take it on good faith that the scientists and
govt have got it covered.]
Which is why so many are now confused – they react to the sort of treatment given to climate denialism in the press that ordinarly wouldn’t be given to flat-earthers.
Again, I get a bit tired of people sitting on their ass discussing politicians and the PM as if they have complete control and they can do anything their heart desires. The real problem ultimately lies with mass-stupidity and manipulation thereof.
[Gillard shouldn’t be squibbing on words now, she should be leading.]
Julia doesn’t have christ-like authority. She’s gotta tread softly before she can lead. Now, get back to me on this a year from now and lets see if she’s doing her level best to bring public opinion with her. But in the meantime I’m going to pronounce your opinions premature and hollow.
[I don’t know if that makes him a sockpuppet, brainless, completely unprincipled or a Labor weathervane.]
Typically bitter remark from an-expat.
cud chewer, I concur. The basic point is that Kev had effectively turned Labor into a policy-free zone on Climate Change. This is not good enough and Gillard has said she will quickly develop policies on renewables and on building support for a carbon price. Music to my ears is all I can say. It is not so hard to do, yet Kev would not do it, or so it seems.
Diogenes@27
No it’s called being a loyal Party supporter.
Try it sometime – or are you pissed off St Bob is now crashing back to earth ?
@26, is there anything even remotely logical in that article, or should I assume Shennanigan is spouting crap as usual and save myself some time?
Scarpat
You’re an ex-pat at the moment aren’t you? I thought you were in France.
Frank
I don’t follow a party like a sheep. I like to think for myself. You could try it somtimes.
Diogenes@34
What a load of elitist claptrap. or are you including your spiritual heroes the Greens in that generalisation ?
[You’re an ex-pat at the moment aren’t you? I thought you were in France.]
Dio, exactly 👿 (sorry, can’t find a tongue-in-cheek emoticon).
[@26, is there anything even remotely logical in that article, or should I assume Shennanigan is spouting crap as usual and save myself some time?]
Cud Chewer, Shanahan trying to explain to all and sundry how to read polls 😆
[24
Thomas Paine
Anyway very early days. Have to see how it is after a few weeks.
The polls I hope are not the extent of the honeymoon.]
Just the beginning, Thomas. Gillard has the attention of the public and will use it to re-state Labor’s key positions. The Liberals will struggle for relevance or visibility……and in about 6-8 weeks, an election will be called in which Labor’s policies will be the benchmarks. The Liberals, who have adroitly avoided proposing almost anything that could be called a policy, will be heading into the election with nothing to their name. The most ramshackle, untrustworthy and cynical opposition seen in living memory will meet the fate they so richly deserve.
briefly @30, thats a bit rough..
Rudd actually cares passionately about climate change. So maybe you’re referring to the decision to delay action until public opinion catches up? He’s a politician not a god.
The only point at which Rudd could have done something effective in terms of leading opinion was sadly early last year. And he’d have had to use other means than mass-advertising. One thing he could have done is brought together the genuine climate scientists and the journalists for a formal “convention”.. And he could have also done more interviews and speeches, using Fielding and his “how to lie with a graph” stunt as a convenient starting point.
Do I wish Rudd had have done better on this? Yes. Is it perfectly explicable? Perfectly. Politics is not the kind of job you want if you don’t want to age prematurely.
@38..
[Just the beginning, Thomas. Gillard has the attention of the public and will use it to re-state Labor’s key positions. The Liberals will struggle for relevance or visibility……and in about 6-8 weeks, an election will be called…]
And the most critical bit is nailing the miners quickly… how likely is that? She’s gotta at least appear to have consulted.. not just with the fat cats but with all the shit-for-brains out there with blue shirts that have been outrageously outraged…
Frank
[What a load of elitist claptrap. or are you including your spiritual heroes the Greens in that generalisation ?]
It says a lot about you that the idea of thinking for yourself is “elitist claptrap”.
Incidentally 6-8 weeks followed by an election puts us into late September.. ouch.. and I keep putting off an OS holiday for this.. grumble..
Diogenes@41
The Elitist Claptrap I was referring to was directed at you generalising ANYONE who supports a politicval party as a sheep, as if it was an affront to democracy.
Hello, if it wasn’t for Party supporters you’d have unstable Govts like Italy.
[Incidentally 6-8 weeks followed by an election puts us into late September.. ouch.. and I keep putting off an OS holiday for this.. grumble..]
I hope that there will be a live stream of election night with Kerry and the usual suspects as I will be away from Ostraya. Don’t want to miss the fun.
And now on a completely different topic…
Imagine fusion without neutrons, on a machine that fits in your garage and produces 20MWatts and costs under $1M to build.. And its backed by ordinary, well understood physics.
http://focusfusion.org/index.php/site/category/C58/
Why be so denigrating to sheep?
[The Elitist Claptrap I was referring to was directed at you generalising ANYONE who supports a politicval party as a sheep, as if it was an affront to democracy.]
Lots of people support a party, but they don’t change their beliefs to fit what the party is saying at the moment. You a a moral, ethical and intellectual vacuum. Even sheep can make a decision for themselves.
[Hello, if it wasn’t for Party supporters you’d have unstable Govts like Italy.]
Must say that I haven’t been keeping count but Italy was managing one election per year since the end of WW II at least well into the 80’s. So who needs a Government?
[39
cud chewer
briefly @30, thats a bit rough..
Rudd actually cares passionately about climate change. So maybe you’re referring to the decision to delay action until public opinion catches up? He’s a politician not a god.]
cud, I’m sure Rudd cares passionately about CC. But he managed to convey exactly the opposite impression to the public, a great many of whom came to think he was not serious at all. He should have spent 2009 talking and pressing and arguing for his policy. Instead we saw a serious but mild Penny Wong in the Senate and months of total chaos amongst the Liberals. Yet on the day the bills failed for the last time, it was crystal clear – the Government had nothing more. Nothing. They had been defeated and had not a clue what to do next. Talk about a failure of strategy. Rather than suffer for their obstruction, the Liberals actually experienced a lift in support. Dismal. Dismal. Dismal.
Diogenes@47
It’s called being flexible as the situation arises – something that some people derided Rudd for not being.
But of course St Bob & the Greens it’s socially acceptable to be so rigid in their views.