Newspoll marginal seats survey

The Australian has published marginal seat Newspoll results from two key seats in New South Wales, Lindsay and Page, and three in Queensland, Flynn, Dawson and Longman. Whereas yesterday’s national poll gave Kevin Rudd cause for relief, today’s results are grim for Labor in every case but Page – and particularly so in Lindsay. According to Dennis Shanahan’s report, the poll shows:

• A 12 per cent swing in Lindsay, which David Bradbury holds for Labor on a margin of 6.8 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s disapproval rating in the electorate is 61 per cent, and both Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard are preferred as prime minister (Abbott by 44 per cent to 40 per cent). UPDATE: Psephos in comments questions the utility of a poll conducted simultaneously with the Penrith by-election, and there may well be something in this.

• There is a collective 6 per cent swing against Labor in Flynn, Dawson and Longman, held by Labor with margins of 2.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent, resulting in a Liberal two-party lead of 54-46. However, Kevin Rudd apparently leads as preferred prime minister.

• It’s a very different story in the north coast New South Wales seat of Page, where the poll shows Labor picking up a swing of 2 per cent.

Full tables presumably forthcoming.

UPDATE: It turns out that the Lindsay and Page polls, and the combined poll of the three Queensland seats, each had samples of 600 and hence margins of error of about 4 per cent. We also have today courtesy of Essential Research data from the weekend’s survey on firmness of voting intention, which – believably enough – shows the Greens’ surge has been muted by an increasing proportion of “soft” support. The “very firm” share of the Greens vote has fallen from 41 per cent to 31 per cent, “might change” has gone from 39 per cent to 45 per cent and “soft” has gone from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. While Labor’s vote has gone up and the Liberals down, both parties have a higher proportion of firm and a lower proportion of soft votes.

UPDATE (23/6): Today The Australian reports that Galaxy has polled 1600 respondents in Brisbane, Petrie, Bowman and Ryan on behalf of WWF Australia, which shows the Liberal National Party with a 51.5-48.5 lead – reversing the result from the last election. The 3 per cent swing this points to, if uniform, would cut Labor very fine in Brisbane and Petrie without actually costing it either of them. Although the Michael Johnson ruckus in Ryan might have dragged down their result. Labor is said to be on 34 per ent of the primary vote, down 9 per cent on the election, but the Coalition are only up one to 46 per cent. More evidence then of Labor bleeding votes to the Greens and getting most back as preferences – depending on how you do the calculation, of course.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats survey”

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  5. Now carrying on about staff losing their jobs?????

    FFS can these dills of Fox News (aka Sky new) get any more banal and vapid?????????

  7. One consoling factor is that Shanahan had a smile like a Cheshire cat on his dial when he got Rudd in against Beazley, 2006.

    It’s taken him three years to get his credibility back after gifting the government to the ones he was supposed to be assassinating.

    “This time, Rupey, I’ll get it right! I promise!”

    So, if Gillard is installed, will this be the Shanahan Touch Mark #2?

  8. Shifting to Gillard is madness, especially now that the polls are starting to recover.

    The Labor Right faction needs to get a clue. And a spine.

  9. Gillard might be from the Left but she is not owned by the Left.

    I have been told by a good leftie mate that Gillard is happy to look left faction members in the eye and tell them off

  10. Castle – I wondered why he changed from the Commonwealth Bank to Adelaide Bank. Was the CBA not enamoured at the thought of lending him that much for living expenses! The Adelaide Bank, being smaller and needing customers, obviously thought it OK. All a bit whiffy but, of course, won’t be looked at by the media now.

  11. [So if Rudd gets rolled, what happens to Swan?]

    There can’t and won’t be any major reshuffling this close to an election. Any change would just be about reintroducing an ETS.

  13. evan14
    Never underestimate the power of Abbott’s negative campaigns. Just watch what happens to Gillard if she is annointed PM.
    She will be torn to shreds.
    Not because I wish it but because this is how the Coalition win elections and Abbott is a master of character assassination.

    With a Gillard scenario, where will the government stand on the RSPT?
    Are the gutless wonders pushing for a backdown for the miners?

  16. Doesn’t say much about the calibre of the Labor back benchers – a bit of polling pressure and they fold like cheap Japanese fans. Darren Cheeseman springs to mind – if he’d spent half as much time tending to his electorate as he did criticising Rudd he wouldn’t be looking at being rolled by Sarah Henderson in Corangamite.

  17. How do i do quotes in here? Anyhow…

    Darren Laver said @ 1934:

    “Gillard is no Rees – but the Right will knife her as quickly if they feel it suits their agenda”

    Damn straight. If the ALP wins and Julia happens to get a poll with a headline that screams ‘Newspoll: 2PP 50-50, ALP DOOMED’ then she’ll be replaced by idiots like Arbib before the ink on The Australian had a chance to dry. I bet it will make the libs 3 changes in 2 years look like stable leadership.

  18. today’s nonsense is simply a device to accelerate the leadersip changeover within the ALP. Rudd needs to be pushed so the next in line Gillard gets her turn before the real heavy weights takeover around 2012.

    The next big leadership battle is between Shorten and Burke and all the current nonsense is about bringing on the battle sooner than later.

    Pathetic as that may seem.

  19. If there’s no spill then Labor will still be seriously damaged by their attempts (it would seem) to show that it’s business as usual in Canberra this evening.

  20. Glen

    That’s a fair comparison. If these guys are pushing hard to dump Rudd and fail, they should be dumped from the ministry with more loyal people brought in.

    The rumor is that it started in the Vic Right then SA Right then NSW Right.

  21. [This week’s Essential Poll Rudd V Abbott 47-30; Gillard V Abbott 50-32. Suspect biggest losers from Gillard leadership would be Greens. 1 minute ago via web Retweeted by LetUsRejoice ]

    And as I said the other day, reality changes perceptions. If Rudd was out of the way and Gillard in the job that percentage would go higher. Not that I am advocating change.

    In fact I worry about a change that takes place too long before an election. You don’t want to give the ABC and Murdoch media too much time to try and character assassinate Julia Gillard.

  22. christopher joye cjoye

    Steve Lewis (News Ltd): Kevin Rudd is finished as PM; internal ALP polling catastrophic; PM is toxic less than 5 seconds ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

  23. LOL Brisoz.

    Gillard will CRUMBLE like a baked biscuit midway through her first term.

    If Labor win the election and I pray that Abbott does not become PM, not that I believe in prayer 😈 Combet will take over soon after 😉

  25. The longer the meeting in the PM’s office goes on, the less likely there is a coup but more likely a strategy meeting for stiffening some jelly spines.

  28. For Labor supporters who think that Julia is a better chance than Rudd at the next election.

    It doesn’t matter who the Labor Party put up instead of Rudd he/she will lose. The ugly fact is that whoever is put up will be seen as a puppet of the NSW Right & everyone knows how respected they are. Even die-hard, life long Labor supporters in NSW detest them. What makes you think that Labor supporters in other states will vote for someone whose beholden to the NSW Right?

    I’ve voted Labor all my life & fought the good fight for them. I could see myself voting Green or abstaining altogether from voting if I disagreed strongly with a policy but in this case, if there is a spill & Rudd is removed (courtesy of the NSW Right), I am voting Liberal (even though my member is that piece…. Kevin Andrews) & urging everyone I know to do the same. At least until someone cleans the rot that is the NSW Right out of politics.

  29. [Because she’s popular, as Rudd – like it or not, everybody – isn’t and never will be again. ]

    I’m unconvinced there’s no way back to popularity for Rudd, assuming he’s allowed to keep his job beyond the next 24 hrs. In October 97 Howard had 31% satisfied 56% dissatisfied, which is worse than where Rudd is now. Two years later he had +25 net sat. He had 60-30ish ratings in parts of 2003 and again in 2005. Any new prime minister goes through bad patches where the electorate at some point falls out of love with them.

    I do think that if there’s a smooth transition to Gillard she will most likely beat Abbott and perhaps by more than Rudd would have done. If it’s messy that’s a different story.

  31. Dee – one thing about the Libs and their dirt file on Gillard is that they won’t be able to use it because they have been laying that line on Labor.

    If they start throwing dirt around about Julia they will look dreadful. If the spill is taking place then the likes of the slimy Jamie Briggs have just boxed themselves in.

  34. One in all in eh Diog??

    They are going hard arent they so it wont be messy.

    It is getting very very close to the point where to continue with Rudd would be just plain stupid.

    Rudd will most likely step down I’d say. I cant see him trying to fight it out if Gillard is going against him. They’ll want an easy transition to her.

  35. Gillard would suffer very little backlash from the electorate for replacing Rudd. Remember the media has been running a long campaign about how bad Rudd is. People will just shrug and see it as a natural event.

  40. [If the MSM get Rudd’s scalp (thanks to a big contribution from jelly-backed so called tough guys like Shorten and Arbib) then Labor leaders will forever be bullied and pushed around.]

    Absolutely

  43. [Remind us who you voted for again at the last election TTH? Or so you said!]

    I voted for Labor and Rudd as leader. If Gillard was leader, I may have very well voted for the bloke with the big bushy eye brows.

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