Newspoll marginal seats survey

The Australian has published marginal seat Newspoll results from two key seats in New South Wales, Lindsay and Page, and three in Queensland, Flynn, Dawson and Longman. Whereas yesterday’s national poll gave Kevin Rudd cause for relief, today’s results are grim for Labor in every case but Page – and particularly so in Lindsay. According to Dennis Shanahan’s report, the poll shows:

• A 12 per cent swing in Lindsay, which David Bradbury holds for Labor on a margin of 6.8 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s disapproval rating in the electorate is 61 per cent, and both Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard are preferred as prime minister (Abbott by 44 per cent to 40 per cent). UPDATE: Psephos in comments questions the utility of a poll conducted simultaneously with the Penrith by-election, and there may well be something in this.

• There is a collective 6 per cent swing against Labor in Flynn, Dawson and Longman, held by Labor with margins of 2.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent, resulting in a Liberal two-party lead of 54-46. However, Kevin Rudd apparently leads as preferred prime minister.

• It’s a very different story in the north coast New South Wales seat of Page, where the poll shows Labor picking up a swing of 2 per cent.

Full tables presumably forthcoming.

UPDATE: It turns out that the Lindsay and Page polls, and the combined poll of the three Queensland seats, each had samples of 600 and hence margins of error of about 4 per cent. We also have today courtesy of Essential Research data from the weekend’s survey on firmness of voting intention, which – believably enough – shows the Greens’ surge has been muted by an increasing proportion of “soft” support. The “very firm” share of the Greens vote has fallen from 41 per cent to 31 per cent, “might change” has gone from 39 per cent to 45 per cent and “soft” has gone from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. While Labor’s vote has gone up and the Liberals down, both parties have a higher proportion of firm and a lower proportion of soft votes.

UPDATE (23/6): Today The Australian reports that Galaxy has polled 1600 respondents in Brisbane, Petrie, Bowman and Ryan on behalf of WWF Australia, which shows the Liberal National Party with a 51.5-48.5 lead – reversing the result from the last election. The 3 per cent swing this points to, if uniform, would cut Labor very fine in Brisbane and Petrie without actually costing it either of them. Although the Michael Johnson ruckus in Ryan might have dragged down their result. Labor is said to be on 34 per ent of the primary vote, down 9 per cent on the election, but the Coalition are only up one to 46 per cent. More evidence then of Labor bleeding votes to the Greens and getting most back as preferences – depending on how you do the calculation, of course.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats survey”

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  3. JB

    The more I think about this the more stupid it becomes. You think the campaign against Rudd has been bad wait to they start on Gillard. Why do you think the MSM wanted Rudd to go?

    That’s what I’ve been thinking since the OO started running this Gillard meme months ago. Don’t do what News Ltd want you to do – it’s a recipe for disaster. Always do the opposite, or at least something else.

  5. [puppet of the NSW Right ]

    The vast majority of Australians wouldn’t have a clue what that was or any connection between them and anybody else let alone Gillard. Only the political tragics are aware of such things.

  13. [People let me be frank and say it. Gillard is no nerd and she is no danzal. Julia is a tough cookie.]

    Let me add I think she is unelectable.

    I think William is dead wrong on this, dead wrong. Yes polls show she is popular, but so was Latham.

    Labor are handing government over to the Libs. I did want to see Labor be given a bit of a “wake up call” at the election, but I must say I am a little sad tonight to say now we will never know what Labor were like in their second term. Sad times indeed.

  14. [Labor’s internal polling must be mad – that’d have to be the reason for all this panic!]

    As I said the other day (repeat) Labor should only change if it strongly believed it would lose. It would be madness to change otherwise.

    If there is a challenge and change it would certainly signal awful internal polling, since the Newspoll was ok. Goodness maybe Newspoll were pumping up Rudd’s figurer to keep him in 🙂

  17. [That’s what I’ve been thinking since the OO started running this Gillard meme months ago. Don’t do what News Ltd want you to do – it’s a recipe for disaster. Always do the opposite, or at least something else.]

    Barren woman with red hair.

    The mysognists of News Ltd will be licking their lips.

    Will make the Latham assasination look like a tea party.

    News Ltd attack dogs will soon be let off the leash.

  19. Truthy

    “People often criticise my “gut feeling” in here, but my gut feeling is saying a Gillard leadership would mean Labor are toast come election day”.

    Are you sitting Truthy?
    I agree with the statement above.
    Changing leaders this late in the game is just sheer dumb and smacks of desperation?

  20. [The more I think about this the more stupid it becomes. You think the campaign against Rudd has been bad wait to they start on Gillard. Why do you think the MSM wanted Rudd to go? ]

    It shows Labor in crisis. Effectively a handful of nonentities from nowheresville have told the Prime Minister he should go. Not good enough.

  21. Thanks Allan Moyes.

    What I’m pissed about is the media BS that lead to this. I know Kevin made some stupid mistaked but they weren’t that bad. I like Julia Gillard, but this is a matter of principle. You let Limited News push you around, you let the NSW Right push you around and you let Mining Billionaires push you around then you’ll never get anything done ever again for fear of upsetting these powerful interest groups. 🙁

  23. I think dumping Rudd now is idiocy, it’s a knee jerk reaction from the factions doing what they know how to do best…dumping leaders. Everyone is saying how easily Gillard would romp it home. I think the opposite will happen, I think it all but gaurentees a Coalition victory.

  28. The attack on Gillard would be that she could not possibly be an Economic Conservative which is a label that Rudd wore with distinction and credibility. Liberal polling will have highlighted that long ago.

  31. [Changing leaders this late in the game is just sheer dumb and smacks of desperation?]

    Well if you have internal polling that consistently tells you that you are going to get thumped then only a fool would stick with what they have. Especially when they have a pretty good back up option.

    But yes it would be stupid to change otherwise.

  35. lets be real for a moment if the internal polling is so bad for the Governmetn then why are the national public polls still quite good.

  39. When a crew mutiny mid voyage while travelling through troubled waters then those back on dry land have every right to question the sanity of all on board. We aren’t out of the woods yet with the GFC. This is a bad night for Labor and a bad night for our immediate future as a nation.

  43. FrankL of Templestowe

    “I’ve voted Labor all my life & fought the good fight for them.”
    Yeah right!
    So we would rather have a sock puppet of multi-national corporations.
    Advocating for a plutocracy are we?

  44. Glen

    I know you’re wetting your pants but could you (and your Lib mates) please refrain from the following – not necessarily in this order – ‘lol’ at front and back of posts, ‘laughing faces’ and other schoolboy/girl turns –
    thnks

  46. mexicanbeemer

    [lets be real for a moment if the internal polling is so bad for the Governmetn then why are the national public polls still quite good.]

    Exactly!

  47. Hey Truthy I have somne bad news for you for Jules has a record of driving much tougher AS policies though the ALP policy machine.

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