Newspoll marginal seats survey

The Australian has published marginal seat Newspoll results from two key seats in New South Wales, Lindsay and Page, and three in Queensland, Flynn, Dawson and Longman. Whereas yesterday’s national poll gave Kevin Rudd cause for relief, today’s results are grim for Labor in every case but Page – and particularly so in Lindsay. According to Dennis Shanahan’s report, the poll shows:

• A 12 per cent swing in Lindsay, which David Bradbury holds for Labor on a margin of 6.8 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s disapproval rating in the electorate is 61 per cent, and both Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard are preferred as prime minister (Abbott by 44 per cent to 40 per cent). UPDATE: Psephos in comments questions the utility of a poll conducted simultaneously with the Penrith by-election, and there may well be something in this.

• There is a collective 6 per cent swing against Labor in Flynn, Dawson and Longman, held by Labor with margins of 2.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent, resulting in a Liberal two-party lead of 54-46. However, Kevin Rudd apparently leads as preferred prime minister.

• It’s a very different story in the north coast New South Wales seat of Page, where the poll shows Labor picking up a swing of 2 per cent.

Full tables presumably forthcoming.

UPDATE: It turns out that the Lindsay and Page polls, and the combined poll of the three Queensland seats, each had samples of 600 and hence margins of error of about 4 per cent. We also have today courtesy of Essential Research data from the weekend’s survey on firmness of voting intention, which – believably enough – shows the Greens’ surge has been muted by an increasing proportion of “soft” support. The “very firm” share of the Greens vote has fallen from 41 per cent to 31 per cent, “might change” has gone from 39 per cent to 45 per cent and “soft” has gone from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. While Labor’s vote has gone up and the Liberals down, both parties have a higher proportion of firm and a lower proportion of soft votes.

UPDATE (23/6): Today The Australian reports that Galaxy has polled 1600 respondents in Brisbane, Petrie, Bowman and Ryan on behalf of WWF Australia, which shows the Liberal National Party with a 51.5-48.5 lead – reversing the result from the last election. The 3 per cent swing this points to, if uniform, would cut Labor very fine in Brisbane and Petrie without actually costing it either of them. Although the Michael Johnson ruckus in Ryan might have dragged down their result. Labor is said to be on 34 per ent of the primary vote, down 9 per cent on the election, but the Coalition are only up one to 46 per cent. More evidence then of Labor bleeding votes to the Greens and getting most back as preferences – depending on how you do the calculation, of course.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats survey”

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  3. Surely Swan can’t stay on as Treasurer!
    Tanner to take over, I predict!
    And the RSPT either gets dumped entirely, or they go back to the drawing board and promise extensive consultation with the mining bosses.

  8. I wonder when the inted to go to the election. Hopefully not too long as I worry about more economic chaos coming from Europe and the USA in which case Rudd/Swan would be the better team, having just skewered the last GFC.

  10. [Surely Swan can’t stay on as Treasurer!
    Tanner to take over, I predict!
    And the RSPT either gets dumped entirely, or they go back to the drawing board and promise extensive consultation with the mining bosses.]

    Swan DPM and treasurer

  39. [Sounds like Rudd will stay and fight.]

    If Gillard stands against him and loses then Labor lose the election. Rudd either wins through no challenger or Gillard wins – that the only hope for the party. Quite frankly the way I feel at the moment they can all burn in hell.

  41. [Hey Truthy I have somne bad news for you for Jules has a record of driving much tougher AS policies though the ALP policy machine.]

    Find that hard to believe, she’s a leftie

  45. They are tearing themselves apart. Only one person can win Labor the next election- Kevin Rudd. I cannot believe this.
    Gillard is no leader, Abbott will win the next election with her as leader. The bloody factions are killing the party again.
    This is crazy stuff.

  46. If Rudd has lost the support of the SA, Vic and NSW Right with obviously the Left supporting Gillard, Rudd is gone and should have stood down. This way he makes Gillard stand against him which damages her brand.

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