Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Full results available from Peter Brent at Mumble. Labor’s 52-48 lead is a slight improvement on 51-49 from three weeks ago, and under the circumstances will come as an enormous relief for the Prime Minister. One sting in the tail is that Labor’s primary vote remains steady on a parlous 35 per cent. The Coalition is down one point to 40 per cent and the Greens are on 15 per cent, one point off their record-breaking effort from three weeks ago. The two-point slack has been taken up by “others” on 10 per cent.

Another sting in the tail is that the preferred prime minister rating has swung to Abbott: Rudd is down three points to 46 per cent and Abbott is up four to 37 per cent, which is respectively a personal worst and the best result achieved by a Liberal leader on Rudd’s watch. This is despite the fact that the leaders’ approval ratings are basically unchanged. Kevin Rudd’s approval is steady on 36 per cent and his disapproval is up a point to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is respectively up a point to 38 per cent and steady on 49 per cent.

A further question on prospective standard of living produces a neutral result: “improve” and “get worse” are both on 17 per cent, with 65 per cent nominating “stay the same”.

Next cab off the rank: Essential Research, which should be through at about 1pm EST.

UPDATE: Hats off to Dennis Shanahan, who shows he’s not scared of a renewed round of opprobrium from the Laborsphere.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research joins the party by also showing Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, although it gets there by showing a primary vote recovery for Labor (up three to 38 per cent) at the expense of the Greens (down three to 11 per cent), with the Coalition down one to 40 per cent. Again, there’s a sting in the tail for Kevin Rudd – 40 per cent say Labor would have a better chance of winning if they changed leaders, against only 37 per cent who say he is the best person to lead the party to the election. However, the results on this measure are substantially worse for Tony Abbott – 29 per cent and 47 per cent. Kevin Rudd remains preferred prime minister over Abbott by 47 per cent to 30 per cent, and also over Julia Gillard by 36 per cent to 33 per cent. There’s also a very interesting finding on troops in Afghanistan, with 61 per cent saying out troops should withdraw.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,109 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. briefly @ 1069

    I agree completely with your analysis – the issue is not one of any polls being ‘rigged’ or pollsters being corrupted by commercial associations with media organisations, but of the jaundiced analysis of those polls being concocted by some media pundits.

    It is also not so much that their analysis is necessarily wrong, as the data generally speaks for itself, but that the metrics that are selectively cherry picked from the data set by the likes of Shanahan, and others who parrot his biased musings, are being used to support a predetermined narrative, rather than being reviewed on their merits and reported consistently and objectively in their entirety, which is what opinion polling is really all about.

    In my view a conspiracy does exist, but it is primarily a commercial one, transfigured into a political context in this country by News Ltd to serve their master’s known wishes and political leanings.

  2. Strangely enough I agree with Briefly on the CC/ETS front – Rudd certainly should restate his committment to an ETS or putting a price on carbon during a 2nd term of government.

  3. Leigh Sales just gave the WA Premier one of the longest and softest interviews I think I have ever seen on Lateline.

  4. Why do all these people who know better continue to promote the fallacy that Greens “give their preferences” to anyone. HTV are rarely blindly followed by Green voters. They all attacked Sarah for not answering where the Greens will give their preferences when they know full well this only applies in the senate.

  5. Ah, Scorpio, Colin Barnett has always been worthy of respect, and for a liberal he was quite moderate and reasonable in his comments. I don’t think Leigh needed to go harder.

  6. [TheTruthHurts
    Posted Monday, June 21, 2010 at 8:05 pm | Permalink
    “My boyfriend has never given me a haircut, just the occassional blow job!”

    LOL Hilarious.]

    Maybe thats what your dad should have chosen?

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