Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Full results available from Peter Brent at Mumble. Labor’s 52-48 lead is a slight improvement on 51-49 from three weeks ago, and under the circumstances will come as an enormous relief for the Prime Minister. One sting in the tail is that Labor’s primary vote remains steady on a parlous 35 per cent. The Coalition is down one point to 40 per cent and the Greens are on 15 per cent, one point off their record-breaking effort from three weeks ago. The two-point slack has been taken up by “others” on 10 per cent.

Another sting in the tail is that the preferred prime minister rating has swung to Abbott: Rudd is down three points to 46 per cent and Abbott is up four to 37 per cent, which is respectively a personal worst and the best result achieved by a Liberal leader on Rudd’s watch. This is despite the fact that the leaders’ approval ratings are basically unchanged. Kevin Rudd’s approval is steady on 36 per cent and his disapproval is up a point to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is respectively up a point to 38 per cent and steady on 49 per cent.

A further question on prospective standard of living produces a neutral result: “improve” and “get worse” are both on 17 per cent, with 65 per cent nominating “stay the same”.

Next cab off the rank: Essential Research, which should be through at about 1pm EST.

UPDATE: Hats off to Dennis Shanahan, who shows he’s not scared of a renewed round of opprobrium from the Laborsphere.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research joins the party by also showing Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, although it gets there by showing a primary vote recovery for Labor (up three to 38 per cent) at the expense of the Greens (down three to 11 per cent), with the Coalition down one to 40 per cent. Again, there’s a sting in the tail for Kevin Rudd – 40 per cent say Labor would have a better chance of winning if they changed leaders, against only 37 per cent who say he is the best person to lead the party to the election. However, the results on this measure are substantially worse for Tony Abbott – 29 per cent and 47 per cent. Kevin Rudd remains preferred prime minister over Abbott by 47 per cent to 30 per cent, and also over Julia Gillard by 36 per cent to 33 per cent. There’s also a very interesting finding on troops in Afghanistan, with 61 per cent saying out troops should withdraw.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,109 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. but if you really knew I mean really knew the kinds of things these politicians have to do I’m talking dirty politics

  2. Newspoll 18-20 June 2010

    Primary Votes: ALP: 35 LIB: 40 GRN: 15 OTH: 10

    Two Party Preferred: ALP: 52 LIB 48:

    Rudd Approval: 36/55

    Abbott Approval: 38/49

    Preferred Prime Minister: Rudd: 46 Abbott: 37

    Will your standard of living improve in the next six months, stay the same or get worse?

    Total: Improve: 17 Same: 65 Worse: 17
    ALP Voters: Improve: 24 Same: 65 Worse: 10
    LIB Voters: Improve: 11 Same: 66 Worse: 22

  3. Well I am happy the TPP number is better than I expected. I got the Labor and Green primaries right πŸ˜€ The coalition vote is pretty much stuck in the 40 to 43 range it seems.

  4. This is a Liberal Party with a crap leader and no policies and we’re at 40% lol!

    Shouldnt happen but they are competitive for some reason.

    The poll just confirms these 2 points

    Nobody wants Rudd
    Nobody wants Tone

  5. Time for a genuine 3rd Moderate Party.

    They’d pick up at least 10-15% from the majors because they are bloody useless.

  6. Is he a stoopid ingalish niggit too?

    Actually, I suspect he was trying to trigger the revolt before the numbers came out in the hope he had them truly spooked!

  7. [They’d pick up at least 10-15% from the majors because they are bloody useless.]

    Glen you really must supply evidence to support such a statement.

  8. Psephos said:

    [Last four Newspolls: Labor 49, 50, 51, 52 – eat that, Shanahan, Milne, Bolt, Skynews. I fart in your general direction.]

    My post on Bolt’s blog:

    [52 /48 to Labor. Suck it BoltA]

  9. Take note Matty Franklin or will you still somehow manage to spin this as labor being behind in the Newspoll??
    As for poor Dennis, I can hear him sobbing from here.
    A good result for labor this.

  10. If we accept the proposition that Labor has tanked in WA, then this poll MUST show there is a swing TOWARDS Labor in the rest of the country, since Labor’s 2PV in 2007 was 52%. So on the strength of this poll (which is, as everyone keeps saying, the Rolls Royce of polls), the Great Labor Collapse in NSW and Qld is not happening.

  11. Labor have dropped 10% on primaries.
    Libs have dropped 4-5%
    Others have gone up.

    People are given a choice between a turd and sht sandwich and they’ll vote for another side (who isnt full of ex-Communists)…

    Evan please explain where I have said I liked Abbott you need to read my posts!

  12. Where have Truthy and Co gone? Hmmm? Still there guys are have we toddled back into our caves with our tails between our legs?

  13. It makes Neilsen look like even more of a rogue result!
    Oh well, News Ltd’s GET RID OF RUDD campaign just blew up in their faces, and it serves them right for concocting a fake leadership challenge out of virtually nothing more than the wet dreams of Shamahack and the Poisoned Dwarf. πŸ˜‰

  14. Good for Labor, glad you aren’t going to lose.

    And with the deal with Telstra done, things will improve even more…

    And well done the Greens!! I reckon we’ll get around 10% or 11% now on election day!

  15. My sympathies to The Australian & Shanahan.

    Went to all the trouble of arranging a mock trial & setting up a perfectly good lynching only to discover that no one cared.

    Why are people so unkind?

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