Full results available from Peter Brent at Mumble. Labor’s 52-48 lead is a slight improvement on 51-49 from three weeks ago, and under the circumstances will come as an enormous relief for the Prime Minister. One sting in the tail is that Labor’s primary vote remains steady on a parlous 35 per cent. The Coalition is down one point to 40 per cent and the Greens are on 15 per cent, one point off their record-breaking effort from three weeks ago. The two-point slack has been taken up by “others” on 10 per cent.
Another sting in the tail is that the preferred prime minister rating has swung to Abbott: Rudd is down three points to 46 per cent and Abbott is up four to 37 per cent, which is respectively a personal worst and the best result achieved by a Liberal leader on Rudd’s watch. This is despite the fact that the leaders’ approval ratings are basically unchanged. Kevin Rudd’s approval is steady on 36 per cent and his disapproval is up a point to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is respectively up a point to 38 per cent and steady on 49 per cent.
A further question on prospective standard of living produces a neutral result: “improve” and “get worse” are both on 17 per cent, with 65 per cent nominating “stay the same”.
Next cab off the rank: Essential Research, which should be through at about 1pm EST.
UPDATE: Hats off to Dennis Shanahan, who shows he’s not scared of a renewed round of opprobrium from the Laborsphere.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research joins the party by also showing Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, although it gets there by showing a primary vote recovery for Labor (up three to 38 per cent) at the expense of the Greens (down three to 11 per cent), with the Coalition down one to 40 per cent. Again, there’s a sting in the tail for Kevin Rudd – 40 per cent say Labor would have a better chance of winning if they changed leaders, against only 37 per cent who say he is the best person to lead the party to the election. However, the results on this measure are substantially worse for Tony Abbott – 29 per cent and 47 per cent. Kevin Rudd remains preferred prime minister over Abbott by 47 per cent to 30 per cent, and also over Julia Gillard by 36 per cent to 33 per cent. There’s also a very interesting finding on troops in Afghanistan, with 61 per cent saying out troops should withdraw.
Our ABC has been suborned and subverted from within and without by the rump of Howard appointed culture warriors and bogus revisionist historians on the ABC Board and to the upper reaches of the ABC management, together with the insidious influence of the Murdoch media on all aspects of journalism and news in this country. As I have state before in other threads, I believe that the Federal Government erred in not turning these Liberal stooges in the ABC out of office as soon as they came to power in 2007.
The once proud flagships of the ABC like Lateline, Four Corners and 7.30 Report have been reduced to garbage scows transporting recycled News Ltd rubbish and the ABC doyens like Kerry O’Brien and Tony Jones have been transmogrified into manic caricatures of themselves.
I note the Essential Report gets a mention on Q&A tonight, but not any of the voting metrics, only the question about Afghanistan and the support for the troops being deployed there – typical cherry picking of data to suit their predetermined aim of trashing Government policy.
At least Tony Jones has pointed out that Abbott wants to send more troops to Afganistan, but SHY looks like a frightened schoolgirl, and is just about as coherent in her defence of the Green’s betrayal of the ETS when they had the chance to have half a loaf, but insisted on the full loaf, and we wanted it buttered, too, please!
The only hackneyed cliche SHY hasn’t spouted so far is that they opposed the ETS because it ‘locked in failure’ without ever explaining exactly what that means, as I still don’t understand why some progress on tackling Climate Change is not better than no progress at all.
Having said that, it’s good to see the Q&A panel and the audience putting SHY through the wringer on Green preferences and their other inconsistencies.
[That’s crap. A recent New Scientist article pointed out that islands were actually GROWING in size.]
That article was about the Pacific. The Maldives are in the Indian Ocean. Sea levels in the Maldives are rising, though not fast enough to cause much threat of submergence in the near future.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5595813/why-the-maldives-arent-sinking.thtml
BH, overall reaction of the Telstra Deal, by Analysis….
Analysis say big win for Telstra Deal:
http://www.zdnet.com.au/telstra-s-nbn-deal-a-win-win-analysts-339303982.htm
Big Ship
i agree they have lost their credibility.
TheTruthHurts,
How about telling the truth about what the New Scientist article actually said?
The islands that grow are small islands where the waves can wash over the island. This is not much help if you live on an island.
I’m not commenting on other posts just now as I’m watching Q&A.
[ I’m not commenting on other posts just now as I’m watching Q&A. ]
Can’t walk and chew gum at the same time hey?
I believe the original form of the saying was:
“Can’t walk and fart at the same time.”
I’m completely boycotting the ABC, at least its news and current affairs output, so I haven’t watched AUSTRALIAN STORY or Q&A.
Is anyone else here brave enough to admit that they’re hopelessly addicted to………….MASTERCHEF? 😉
[TheTruthHurts,
How about telling the truth ]
Truthy has never yet told the truth about anything in any one of his posts. That’s because, as his pseudonym should warn us, it causes him physical pain to tell the truth.
Frank: mate, you’re a gem, keep those tweets coming! 😀
Scrolling through today’s earlier comments, I notice that a certain Liberal troll named Nostrodamus is back.
Is Stephen Kaye far behind? 😆
maybe truthy has false teeth
OMG, next week Trioli hosting Q&A. I am definitely migrating.
I know a certain Testra share holder who is very happy with Rudd’s announcement on Sunday(the national broadband network and deal with Telstra)!
I doubt there’s much ground here for Abbott & Mr Mogadon to run a scare campaign!
Rudd needs a few more successes like this one! 😉
Evan, I’ve boycotted the ABC – radio, television, website – but haven’t gone to Masterchef. The ipod’s getting a real workout though.
The Greens need to watch themselves. They’re in danger of becoming the left-wing One Nation.
That Greens senator was pathetic.
Looked worse than either Lib or Lab whom she was trying to be oh so superior to.
Richo stitched her up good and proper. Absolutionist – lol.
good on you Mal for agreeing that he would support an ETS and a profits based mining tax.
so the greens aren’t preferencing – lol what a goose she wa.
lol – at the Young nat who seems to think they are the only ones who know about the tax because he was from WA.
If I had been in the QandA audience tonight I’d be wanting the air back that the silly Centre for Independent Studies woman breathed. Brainless inanity.
I think the idea that the pollsters might rig their own results is a non-starter. For a start it is contrary to the whole reason polling is carried out. Furthermore, were results deliberately falsified, and this were to become public, then the pollster involved would jeopardize their professional and financial standing, perhaps causing irretrievable damage to their business.
But let’s suppose that pollsters have a preference for one side of politics or another. (This would be a reasonable supposition, as pollsters are unlikely to be exempt from the same forces that operate on the rest of us.) In this case, what possible real advantage could be conferred on the party the pollster supports by creating a false picture of the support they have among the public? The answer is that no advantage would be conferred. On the contrary, it would mislead them, and therefore harm them.
Beyond this, speculation about rigging polls pre-supposes that polls are causes of shifts in opinion, rather than measures of shifts in opinion. There is not doubt that polls are interesting, but are they causes of fluctuations in opinion? Almost certainly they are not.
So why rig your polls? You may lose your business. You may harm the party you support. Would it achieve anything? Certainly not.
Like I say, this idea is a non-starter.
Polling in key marginal seats covered in this Newspoll. Apparently not great for the govt.
It’s a sad state of affairs when you can no longer watch the news & current affairs output of the national broadcaster.
I’m watching more of SBS news – very comprehensive, I like a lot of world news along with the national stuff, & no endless parroting of News Ltd/Liberal Party talking points.
The Big Ship,
[The only hackneyed cliche SHY hasn’t spouted so far is that they opposed the ETS because it ‘locked in failure’ without ever explaining exactly what that means, as I still don’t understand why some progress on tackling Climate Change is not better than no progress at all.]
I’m pretty sure she did and more than once too. Sometimes it was hard to tell what she was saying, but pretty “everything” she did say I have seen presented here by our Greens friends countless hundreds of times.
Especially in the latter stages of the CPRS Bill going through the Senate and ever since.
Shanas:
[KEVIN Rudd and Labor are being spurned in enough marginal seats in regional Queensland and Western Sydney to lose the election there alone.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/labor-losing-out-in-marginals-newspoll/story-e6frgczf-1225882481369
This is the polling Bolt was going on about on Sunday.
SHY really isn’t politically savvy at all. She did the Greens a lot of damage tonight, I think.
Malcolm Turnbull was simply electioneering, though he did look rather uncomfortable when put on the spot about bot the ETS and RSPT.
I was a little annoyed that Richo monopolised the argument a lot of the time and seems intent on undermining Labor. What’s his beef? There is no need for the RSPT to be resolved next week. I just don’t get his rationale.
SHY pulled the line that they should have negotiated with the greens to get an ETS, even though they don’t have control of the senate.
Fiz,
[If I had been in the QandA audience tonight I’d be wanting the air back that the silly Centre for Independent Studies woman breathed. Brainless inanity.]
I think it was a tie between her and SHY! That was breathless inanity by both of them.
Noticed a number of tweets that picked it up too! Bob Brown is probably hitting the cocktail cabinet as we speak.
Rationale?
Hip pocket! Richo’s a paid lobbyist. To him, it’s just a job…
Is Richo working for the mining companies?
Ahh the Extra bit Shamaman was talking about:
Has Mumble got the figs from tomorrows Newspoll in marginals yet?
A 2% swing to Labor in Page?
Janelle Saffin must be a good local member.
Flynn, Dawson and Longman will all be hard to hold.
And based on the evidence of the weekend, David Bradbury is in serious trouble in Lindsay.
Oh my. Hasn’t Sarah H-Y developed a big head. Turnbull took her down beautifully.
And so did Richo.
She hasn’t done her party any favours tonight.
Their ABC is doing the Opposition’s job for them well tonight.
They have just run that “lemon” add in full again on Lateline. What happened to their Code of Conduct and Regulations.
Their ABC, the taxpayer arm of the Liberal Party/Murdoch Coalition.
Time I think for the Management of the ABC to get it registered as a political Party.
Damn, forgot alan shore already posted the Newspoll link. But where is the Marginal WA Newspoll ?
BB – when will you learn?
Psephy is never ever wRONg!
Surprise Surprise, Labor in trouble in Queensland Marginals.
Well you lot were warned, but the hacks stuck your head in the sand and didn’t want to listen yet again.
Alan Shore – how’s Denny Crane going these days? Still losing his marbles?
Labor in Queensland Marginal seats down 6% to 46%
Brilliant, absolutely brilliant.
Truthy
You would be surprised how many townys aren’t redneck throwbacks like you
😉
Truthy — remember — premature hubris is a dangerous thing. It always looks so bad when in the end, you have to pull your head in.
You can’t discount the influence of unpopular state governments in NSW & QLD.
If only Victoria had another 10 marginal seats to make QLD irrelevant. 😉
Is this a separate poll to the one yesterday, or is it a break down of areas covered?
The Nats are running a 20 year old in Longman. Labor will win it comfortably.
evan, is this the shock horror story for labor the OO has been trotting out all week?
laughing mah butt off! Lindsay in trouble going on the NSW by election! I f that was the case Rudd wouldn’t win a seat in NSW 😆
Scorps went:
[Time I think for the Management of the ABC to get it registered as a political Party.]
LOL
– let’s just start with Fran Kelly’s registration !
This is of course the same narrative News Ltd ran in 2007, only in reverse. In 2007 it was “Labor may be leading in the 2PV, but Howard is holding on in the marginals.” Now it’s “Labor may be leading in the 2PV, but it’s losing in the marginals.” In fact, Australian electoral history shows very clearly that there is, overall, a uniform swing, particularly in urban marginals. That’s what happened in 2007 – the marginals went down like ninepins. And in 2010 the same thing will happen again. If there is no national swing to the Libs, there will be no net gains. If Labor again polls 52% of the national 2PV, it will again win the election. If it loses seats A B and C, there will be compensatory gains in X Y and Z.
When the voters take a close look at the divided rabble called the LNP in QLD they will flock back to the ALP in droves.
Labor will pick up seats at the next election.
Brilliant, absolutely brilliant.
Alan Shore
Posted Monday, June 21, 2010 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
I doubt it. I’m sure they were expecting Newspoll to have Abbott ahead on 2PP & PPM – there may have been some “secret” Lib polling showing that, because the MSM was SURE the polls were “dire for Labour”. That was obvious even from tonight’s tele/ broadcasts.
The “marginals” chosen are a hoot. We have to believe Shanners! As if ….
Mining + Lindsay + Paige + Longman (of Leaflet fame) – the Tory seat that turfed Brough (& no graphic yet).
Hello eggs all over MSM faces.
Night all
[1074
jenauthor…….There is no need for the RSPT to be resolved next week.]
The decision to dump the ETS/CPRS – carried out more or less off the cuff and with no explanation offered – has been a grave mistake on Rudd’s part. He has put himself in the position where he really has no policy on CC other than to wait for something to turn up one day. This is not merely unacceptable, it is deeply confusing for people. It was a catalyst for the creation doubt and submission and allowed their cousin, resentment, a place at the table.
Rudd has to do something to get back on track on CC. If he does not do this, he will look like he does not care much about what he himself so recently said, and he will look like he has no fight in him.
This just one issue, but it is a very important one amongst voters that supported him in 2007. As things stand, he has removed one of the reasons people had for sticking with him. He has to fix this and fix it quickly.
doubt and suspicion….