Newspoll marginal seats survey

The Australian has published marginal seat Newspoll results from two key seats in New South Wales, Lindsay and Page, and three in Queensland, Flynn, Dawson and Longman. Whereas yesterday’s national poll gave Kevin Rudd cause for relief, today’s results are grim for Labor in every case but Page – and particularly so in Lindsay. According to Dennis Shanahan’s report, the poll shows:

• A 12 per cent swing in Lindsay, which David Bradbury holds for Labor on a margin of 6.8 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s disapproval rating in the electorate is 61 per cent, and both Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard are preferred as prime minister (Abbott by 44 per cent to 40 per cent). UPDATE: Psephos in comments questions the utility of a poll conducted simultaneously with the Penrith by-election, and there may well be something in this.

• There is a collective 6 per cent swing against Labor in Flynn, Dawson and Longman, held by Labor with margins of 2.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent, resulting in a Liberal two-party lead of 54-46. However, Kevin Rudd apparently leads as preferred prime minister.

• It’s a very different story in the north coast New South Wales seat of Page, where the poll shows Labor picking up a swing of 2 per cent.

Full tables presumably forthcoming.

UPDATE: It turns out that the Lindsay and Page polls, and the combined poll of the three Queensland seats, each had samples of 600 and hence margins of error of about 4 per cent. We also have today courtesy of Essential Research data from the weekend’s survey on firmness of voting intention, which – believably enough – shows the Greens’ surge has been muted by an increasing proportion of “soft” support. The “very firm” share of the Greens vote has fallen from 41 per cent to 31 per cent, “might change” has gone from 39 per cent to 45 per cent and “soft” has gone from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. While Labor’s vote has gone up and the Liberals down, both parties have a higher proportion of firm and a lower proportion of soft votes.

UPDATE (23/6): Today The Australian reports that Galaxy has polled 1600 respondents in Brisbane, Petrie, Bowman and Ryan on behalf of WWF Australia, which shows the Liberal National Party with a 51.5-48.5 lead – reversing the result from the last election. The 3 per cent swing this points to, if uniform, would cut Labor very fine in Brisbane and Petrie without actually costing it either of them. Although the Michael Johnson ruckus in Ryan might have dragged down their result. Labor is said to be on 34 per ent of the primary vote, down 9 per cent on the election, but the Coalition are only up one to 46 per cent. More evidence then of Labor bleeding votes to the Greens and getting most back as preferences – depending on how you do the calculation, of course.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll marginal seats survey”

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  1. This presser is just a fantastic and incredibly cheap ad for Rudd’s leadership. He’s bypassing the media and talking straight to the people.

  2. If Gillard doesn’t win tomorrow – the Labor party will lose to Tony Abbott.

    Tony Abbott FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    God help us all.

    God help us.

  3. [This presser is just a fantastic and incredibly cheap ad for Rudd’s leadership. He’s bypassing the media and talking straight to the people]

    Best performance by Rudd since 2007

  4. Truthy when in opposition Julia Gillard openly rejected calls by the Labor Left for Refugees to soften the ALP AS policy.

  5. [ahead in all the polls, all the signs are that they will romp it in, and a bunch of lightweights lose their nerve.]

    Yep, spineless, gutless wonders.

    If Rudd wins tomorrow Shorten should get the flick.

  6. It is about leadership, not polls, i am leftwinger and Julia is lefty but she is no leader and not one whom the public warm too.
    Sorry this is crazy stuff. Shorten and Arbib are dills.

  7. This is truly nuts. I am assuming there are a number of terrible internal polls. Otherwise Gillard would be silly to stand and Rudd silly to not stand down.

    They really need the smooth transition, not conflict.

  8. Just think for a moment what other world leaders will make of this. Australia have weathered the GFC better than any nation on earth and this happens to the leader.


  9. Gillard will then show up at the G20 ….mumble, mumble, mumble (among delegates)..”you better watch these Australians, they eat their own”
    et te Brutus

  10. The best speech Nathan Rees made was the speech he made before he was decapitated…the one where he said “If I am not the Premier at the end of this day….”

  11. Beazley also gave his best speech when it was too late.

    Rudd still obfuscated on ETS though.

    ‘We will do an ETS on blah, blah, blah government timetable’

  12. This is pathetic. Gillard will replace Rudd, Labor’s polling will not improve and may very well tank further.

    I think we’re looking at Prime Minister Abbott before the year is out.

  13. [Someone took the 1.70 Sportingbet odds on Labor and they are back to 1.55. There is no flee to the Libs on the markets.]

    I don’t fancy Abbott’s chances against Gillard.

    I actually think, with things having come this far, it would be a poor outcome for Labor if Rudd won tomorrow.

  14. Rudd seems to have upset some of his colleagues.

    [One senior party source said: “This crypto-facist made no effort to build a base within the party and now his only faction – Newspoll – has deserted him. He is gone.” ]

  15. Just logged in to wish the Socceroos luck before sleeping till 4am – and find the world has gone mad. What is going on? Is there a challenge or is this just a beat up? Was there a press conference? Labor woudl be crazy to change leader this close to the election.

    If there is really a challenge then Labor needs to boot out these right power brokers once and for all before they add a Federal Labor government to their list of disasters, having already stuffed NSW State Labor.

    The best outcome woudl eb for Rudd and Gillard to have ajoint meeting tomorrow morning to assure people this is all just nonsense speculation. The polls were coming back – it woudl be panic to change now.

  16. The problem for Rudd in this even if he wins the ballot the media will still be gunning for him and using this to undermine him and the govt from hereon. He will get precious little chance to display his vigor and fight until the campaign.

  17. Masterstroke? Maybe. They needed a circuit breaker, something that could reset the political clock. Changing to Gillard might sound like a good idea for about 5 minutes but as others have already pointed out the News Ltd attacks dog would destroy her. Can you imagine the number Andrew Bolt would do on Julia Gillard? She is a lefty and a woman the two things BoltA hates most in the world. Rudd sounded strong in that presser and the audience would’ve be reasonably large too given that at least the ABC and 7 took it live, don’t know about 9, 10 or SBS.

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