Morgan: 52.5-47.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52.5-47.5 after last week’s four point bounce up to 54.5-45.5. This seems a bit odd given that Labor’s primary vote is only down 0.5 per cent to 42 per cent while the Coalition is steady on 41 per cent. The effect comes from the non-major party vote figures, which are showing the same volatility as Newspoll’s without in any way replicating the surge to the Greens recorded on the weekend. Indeed, this poll – conducted at the same time – has the Greens down from 11 per cent to 8.5 per cent, with “others” doubling from 3.5 per cent to 7 per cent.

Besides which:

• The Liberals have announced candidates for two normally marginal seats in South Australia: Gawler councillor David Strauss will run against Nick Champion in Wakefield, and businesswoman Liz Davies will run against Tony Zappia in Makin. Both seats were gained by Labor at the 2007 election, with relative swings of 7.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent producing margins of 6.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent.

• The Liberals have announced candidates for the two Australian Capital Territory seats. Canberra will be contested by Giulia Jones, a former party staffer who was narrowly unsuccessfully in her run for Molonglo at the 2008 Australian Capital Territory, and sought Tasmanian Senate preselection for the 2007 federal election. Jones had been the only nominee at the time the party suspended the preselection process in late 2009 in the hopes of finding a higher profile, but it would appear none was forthcoming. In Fraser the Liberals have nominated James Milligan, a small business owner from Gungahlin.

• Amid claims from LNP member Michael Johnson that party president Bruce McIver threatened to refer him to police if he did not resign as member, the party is preparing to preselect a successor in his seat of Ryan next week. Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice is rated the front-runner, but other possible starters are said to include Seb Monsour, manager with catering and cleaning firm Spotless and brother-in-law or Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman, and Senator Russell Trood, who holds an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket.

• The Daily Advertiser reports the paper’s former editor, Michael McCormack, has won preselection to succeed retiring Kay Hull as Nationals candidate for Riverina. Other nominees were Wesley Fang, a Child Flight helicopter pilot from Wagga Wagga, John Minogue, a farmer from Barmedman, Bill Maslin, a Gundagai councillor, and Mark Hoskinson, a farmer from Kikoira. The Liberal candidate is thought likely to be Charles Morton, described by a Poll Bludger commenter as “lawyer turned businessman/film financier/mate of Mel Gibson”.

• The Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, Peter Angelico, has withdrawn after his Dandenong metal fabrication business was fined $25,000 over a workplace accident that resulted in a 16-year-old losing part of three fingers.

• The Nationals have nominated Tamworth Chamber of Commerce president Tim Coates to run against independent Tony Windsor in New England.

• Farmborough Heights business consultant Michelle Blicavs has been unanimously endorsed by local members as Liberal candidate for the NSW state seat of Wollongong.

UMR Research has published results on attitudes towards banning wearing of the burkha, producing intuitively correct findings of generally high support that wanes among the younger and university educated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

584 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5”

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  1. The euro is ailing tonight….down to just USD1.2056 at the moment. The AUD is also falling…back below USD0.84. I fret about this, as you know: the portents are for a marked drop back in global growth and renewed tightness in credit markets.

    As an aside, I noted in yesterday’s trade statistics that while exports were up strongly in April, imports were almost flat, resulting in a trade surplus for the first time in 13 months:

    http://www.lloydslistdcn.com.au/archive/2010/june/04/australia-delivers-first-surplus-in-13-months

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/trade-balance-swings-to-surprise-surplus-20100603-x1cx.html

    [Exports of metal ores and minerals jumped 25 per cent, largely thanks to a 29 per cent increase in prices.

    Coal exports jumped 40 per cent with volumes recovering by a hefty 26 per cent.

    Those gains owe much to insatiable demand from China and India ……Some commodity prices had taken a hit in the last few weeks amid a global flight from risk….. Yet, so far, the price of Australia’s key exports coal and iron ore have proved resilient.

    Just this week miner BHP Billiton And Japanese steelmakers agreed on a 12.5 per cent hike in the price of coking coal for the July-September period, from the previous quarter. That represented a 75 per cent rise from a year earlier for the key ingredient used in steelmaking.

    The RBA reported that its index of Australian commodity prices climbed to a 19-month high in May. The index is now up 44 percent from lows touched in May last year and not far from record territory.

    The recent sharp decline in the Australian dollar will also be a relief for manufacturing exporters, and is even a positive for mining earnings since so many commodities are priced in US dollars. The local currency fell 10 per cent against its US counterpart last month.]

  2. my say 443

    I think the insiders and the other MSM journos should get outside more often and meet some real people. Most of the insiders are pretty smug and arrogant and prefer to tell us what to think. Really, they are no better than the politicians they report on.

    A lot of us on PB would do a better job. Truthy could be the next ‘Nuts and Bolts’.

  3. For all those whinging about a 4 Corners promo …. Why don’t you just wait and see what the programme has to say first. You may be surprised. The way you are carrying on about a promo shows that your minds have already closed – slammed shut. If you don’t want to see and hear what you don’t want to hear , don’t watch it …. and spare us all the whining and whinging.

  4. Is there anybody on the NSW ALP backbench who has not been a minister at some stage or been deemed unacceptable to be one. Anyone?

  5. Diogenes@450

    Truthy

    Actually you should include Campbell which makes four in a month.

    If you’ve got time for a few weeks Diogenes – why don’t we turn up at Macquarie Tower in Sydney one morning and put ourselves forward to Kristina as independent ministers. You can do health, and I’ll do A-G, and we can sort a few things out with some intelligent, inner-city, elitist, academic, rational, non-bogan cabinet leadership. When done, we resign as they do so regularly, and disappear back to our respective homes and no-one will have noticed we were even there.

  6. For all those whinging about a 4 Corners promo …. Why don’t you just wait and see what the programme has to say first. You may be surprised. The way you are carrying on about a promo shows that your minds have already closed – slammed shut.

    If it is going to be so balanced, then why do a promo that is so biased?

  7. [If you don’t want to see and hear what you don’t want to hear , don’t watch it …. and spare us all the whining and whinging.]
    Doesn’t this advice apply to you here.

  8. And another aside: the new Japanese PM, Naoto Kan, the Finance Minister, has indicated he will tackle Japan’s chronic public sector deficits, noting that the public debt in Japan is more than 200% of GDP. This suggests that spending cuts and tax rises lie ahead for Japan. Austerity, it seems is the new black.

  9. [ If it is going to be so balanced, then why do a promo that is so biased? ]
    To get us all interested? and talking about it on blogs?

  10. [For all those whinging about a 4 Corners promo …. Why don’t you just wait and see what the programme has to say first. ]

    Because it’s on the ABC and in the lefts mind the ABC should only be a pro-government, pro-left wing channel otherwise it’s biased.

    How dare they criticise the government, despite the obvious fact the governments screwed up YET AGAIN.

  11. Please can the illusory ABC bias thing be left alone? Sorry, that should read ‘be left and right alone’. Lack of balance creeping in there.

  12. [Trying to bully is quite unbecoming. I would have thought better of you.]
    Hang on, I’m using your own words. So who is doing the bullying?

  13. JB

    The high levels of protection for Japanese rice farmers are effectively a super tax as the consumer has to pay very high prices for a staple food. Inefficiencies such as this are why the Japanese economy has been in the doldrums for almost 20 years.

  14. I will watch the Four corners programme with interest to see what facts they put on the table. The simple overiding premise is we own the resource ie we are the Landlord and the mining companies are the Tenants. We are raising the rent to a market rate – what’s the big deal.

  15. [Maybe Japan needs an RSPT- a Rice Super Profits Tax.]

    What Japan needs is a few million immigrants to kickstart their economy and break them out of their smug sense of racial superiority. Otherwise they’ll be a geriatric ghetto and an ex-great power in 30 years. Monoculturalism is the new backwardness.

  16. Truthy be fair!

    The whole point of having the ABC is to provide a plurality of views which is essential for democracy. Given that the majority of the MSM (tv, radio, print, digital) is right-wing, then it is only fair that ABC and SBS be left-wing.

  17. Gary

    As you would know (as a regular contributor to this blog) that the whole the ABC bias thing is boring and tedious. Maybe William could set up an eternal thread on ABC bias. And those who want to can go there and carry on about bias until they disappear God know where …. and the rest of us just can stay away.

  18. [What Japan needs is a few million immigrants to kickstart their economy and break them out of their smug sense of racial superiority. Otherwise they’ll be a geriatric ghetto and an ex-great power in 30 years. Monoculturalism is the new backwardness.]

    Japan is a great country and has some of the friendliest people in the world, they are very polite.

    Monoculturalism has worked for them. Low crime, high respect and a strong culture.

    Can’t wait to go back there for another holiday actually.

  19. Japan is heading in the right direction. If the rest of world used resources per capita in the same way Japan uses resources, planet Earth wouldn’t just be warm. It would be hot.

  20. I’m with the ABC has gone O.O. Echo faction. Both myself and Him Indoors are regularly gnashing our few remaining teeth about their so-called reporting. This morning, Jon Faine, who should and does know better, was hectoring Simon Overland about criminal proceedings that are still happening, even though certain charges are not to be proceeded. Stupid tabloid stuff. Can’t even bring myself to look at the promo for what used to be the great 4 Corners.

  21. Blackburn and Pseph

    You’d think they would change given that they are absolutley terrified of China. They have never recovered from the 90’s recession. As you guys have mentioned, problems relating to culture, high exchange rate, protectionism, poor and corrupt financial system has lead to the difficulties they face.

  22. [As you would know (as a regular contributor to this blog) that the whole the ABC bias thing is boring and tedious. Maybe William could set up an eternal thread on ABC bias. And those who want to can go there and carry on about bias until they disappear God know where …. and the rest of us just can stay away.]
    As a regular I often find topics not to my liking. I’ve found the best way around that is scrolling rather than complaining. It really isn’t that difficult you know.

  23. Adam, I don’t think they have got 30 years, the country will become effectively become a great big nursing home. Austria and Germany will not be much different though they are more (relative to Japan) welcoming to immigrants.

    Some time ago, I read an article (possibly the Economist but not sure) that China may never reach developed country status because it will reach the geriatric economic stagnation stage first because of the one child policy.

  24. [Because it’s on the ABC and in the lefts mind the ABC should only be a pro-government, pro-left wing channel otherwise it’s biased.

    How dare they criticise the government, despite the obvious fact the governments screwed up YET AGAIN.]

    Look Toothy, we all understand that you are in favour of protecting the interests of a priveleged few. We also know that you believe in the myth of Horatio Algar. It’s cool, it really is. We also get it that you hate having a government that governs for the majority, not just the tax dodging wealthy. All we ask is that you suck it up, princess.

  25. Boerwar

    The Japanese are pretty lean when it comes to resource usage. They use less energy per capita and produce much more with it than they did before the 1973 oil shock. They were bitten then and have never let it happen again. Disposable chopsticks – that is another matter!

  26. It is quite normal for animal populations to over-reach and then either have a long-term decline, a crash, or quite rhythmic oscillations.

    Humans have a greater range of options than other animals. But they are still animals.

  27. Gusface – well fish -should- be a renewable resource, if they’re not shockingly overfished. Though it sounded like Michael Kroger would be quite happy to treat them as a resource to be fished out with no future and no return to anyone.

  28. Gary

    Usually I scroll, but complaining about bias in a program from the promo in just too much.

    Complain all you like after 9:30pm Monday night when the whole story has come out.

    It is bit like Margaret and David reviewing films having only seen the trailer!

  29. The 4 corners promo is a bit of a worry. I remember back to the insulation investigation that had a partisan promo and remember thinking “I’ll watch with an open mind, I’m sure they couldn’t have a completely unbalanced partisan report”, and lo and behold it was a shocker.
    I’ll watch and see, but it’s probably going to do my blood pressure no good whatsoever 🙁

  30. do people here respond to TTH as a sort of cat and mouse game? Does he know he’s the mouse? Or does he think he’s a grande fromage? What’s that really smelly one?

  31. [do people here respond to TTH as a sort of cat and mouse game? Does he know he’s the mouse? Or does he think he’s a grande fromage? What’s that really smelly one?]

    I love toothy. His whinging sends me into paroxyms of laughter. He’s just a parody of a right wing nut, just like Glen Beck, yeah? More more more!!!!

  32. Johnny Button@468

    Truthy be fair!

    The whole point of having the ABC is to provide a plurality of views which is essential for democracy. Given that the majority of the MSM (tv, radio, print, digital) is right-wing, then it is only fair that ABC and SBS be left-wing.

    No, that’s not balance either. The role of a public news agency such as the ABC is to be impartial*. This means that it must not lean in any partisan direction. It should favour intelligent inquiry on behalf of the public when going beyond mere reporting; eg 7:30 Report.

    Sometimes intelligent inquiry directed at government on behalf of the people upsets supporters of the government of the day. Stiff.

    As an aside one of the great successful sleights of hand in modern politics is to equate intelligence and questioning with ‘left-wing’.

    * http://www.thefreedictionary.com/impartiality

  33. Some of the best of the world’ fisheries are already very non-renewable. The Grand Banks Cod Fishery is an example. They have lifted fishing pressure almost completely, but it looks like the ecology has changed to such an extent that the Cod do not appear to be making a comeback.

  34. the relative economic strength in oz must be a political winner for the government…vs say the US, latest numbers a little while ago:

    [June 4 (Bloomberg) — Employers in the U.S. hired fewer workers in May than forecast and Americans dropped out of the labor force, showing a lack of confidence in the recovery that may lead to slower economic growth.

    Payrolls rose by 431,000 last month, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. Economists projected a 536,000 gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Private payrolls rose a less-than-forecast 41,000. The jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent.

    … Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that unemployment was exacting a heavy toll, showing why economists forecast interest rates will remain low.

    “It’s going to be a long haul,” Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado, said before the report. “We really aren’t adding many jobs. We’ve lost some momentum in the economy and final sales clearly aren’t enough to generate job growth.”

    Stock-index futures fell and Treasury securities rose after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2.1 percent to 1,080 at 8:38 a.m. in New York. The 10- year Treasury note rose, pushing down the yield to 3.27 percent from 3.37 percent late yesterday.]
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax55j3oSwVuI&pos=1

  35. In Hollywood, the Trailer can cost millions and sometimes has its own director and some scenes or cuts that are not even in the film – or gives the film a slant that it doesn’t even. As we probably all know we have been to a movie which looked good in a trailer and then was a real dog.

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