The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52.5-47.5 after last week’s four point bounce up to 54.5-45.5. This seems a bit odd given that Labor’s primary vote is only down 0.5 per cent to 42 per cent while the Coalition is steady on 41 per cent. The effect comes from the non-major party vote figures, which are showing the same volatility as Newspoll’s without in any way replicating the surge to the Greens recorded on the weekend. Indeed, this poll – conducted at the same time – has the Greens down from 11 per cent to 8.5 per cent, with “others” doubling from 3.5 per cent to 7 per cent.
Besides which:
• The Liberals have announced candidates for two normally marginal seats in South Australia: Gawler councillor David Strauss will run against Nick Champion in Wakefield, and businesswoman Liz Davies will run against Tony Zappia in Makin. Both seats were gained by Labor at the 2007 election, with relative swings of 7.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent producing margins of 6.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent.
• The Liberals have announced candidates for the two Australian Capital Territory seats. Canberra will be contested by Giulia Jones, a former party staffer who was narrowly unsuccessfully in her run for Molonglo at the 2008 Australian Capital Territory, and sought Tasmanian Senate preselection for the 2007 federal election. Jones had been the only nominee at the time the party suspended the preselection process in late 2009 in the hopes of finding a higher profile, but it would appear none was forthcoming. In Fraser the Liberals have nominated James Milligan, a small business owner from Gungahlin.
• Amid claims from LNP member Michael Johnson that party president Bruce McIver threatened to refer him to police if he did not resign as member, the party is preparing to preselect a successor in his seat of Ryan next week. Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice is rated the front-runner, but other possible starters are said to include Seb Monsour, manager with catering and cleaning firm Spotless and brother-in-law or Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman, and Senator Russell Trood, who holds an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket.
• The Daily Advertiser reports the paper’s former editor, Michael McCormack, has won preselection to succeed retiring Kay Hull as Nationals candidate for Riverina. Other nominees were Wesley Fang, a Child Flight helicopter pilot from Wagga Wagga, John Minogue, a farmer from Barmedman, Bill Maslin, a Gundagai councillor, and Mark Hoskinson, a farmer from Kikoira. The Liberal candidate is thought likely to be Charles Morton, described by a Poll Bludger commenter as “lawyer turned businessman/film financier/mate of Mel Gibson”.
• The Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, Peter Angelico, has withdrawn after his Dandenong metal fabrication business was fined $25,000 over a workplace accident that resulted in a 16-year-old losing part of three fingers.
• The Nationals have nominated Tamworth Chamber of Commerce president Tim Coates to run against independent Tony Windsor in New England.
• Farmborough Heights business consultant Michelle Blicavs has been unanimously endorsed by local members as Liberal candidate for the NSW state seat of Wollongong.
• UMR Research has published results on attitudes towards banning wearing of the burkha, producing intuitively correct findings of generally high support that wanes among the younger and university educated.
jv 495
Agree. I was just trying to be facetious to Truthy.
It shows you how silly Hurts is. He keeps on hitting his head up against this brick wall of ridicule. You’d think he either started arguing cases using facts or just give it away. Personally, I’m very happy just to scroll past many of his posts.
Harry “Snapper” Organs
Esrom? Am a fan of the stinky stuff, but this is just too much.
I think that there is going to be a report of 500,000 increase in employment in the USA. I forget which month. But 400,000 of those are one-offs for the census and will disappear later on.
This leaves 100,000 net which, if gained, is not enough to keep pace with new entrants to the labor market.
[Some of the best of the world’ fisheries are already very non-renewable]
Gulf of Mexico for example.
Boer
funny you should raise that
My eldest is doing vis a vis the webby and as current texts a s possible the impact and decimation (wrong word literally-but you get the gist)
SWMBO has dragged up texts from 150ya which ref total depletion of fish stocks and no chance of come back- but here is the clanger- they do and will come back- its just
a the time period
b understanding GW has also opened areas otherwise to spawning
as they say sometimes evil things can have (admittedly) a marginally good impact
As a acase in point the sub antartic has seen unprecendented plankton levels which have fe3d thru the chain
but you get the drift
boerwar – see #497
Gaffhook
There are so very many gone or going.
It is extremely difficult to find eels in Holland, for example. The europeans are harvesting elvers before they can get to fresh water.
I suppose, as long as we have our algae gruel, all will be well.
Jon @ 503. I’m a bit confused here…don’t know what you’re responding to/
B
ps check out the aquaculture industry projections for the next decade
the fact is we already consume over a third of farmed fish is quite enlightening
Oldish news but it is a bit rich for the Libs to complain of bias
http://www.theage.com.au/national/butting-in-reveals-abc-bias-say-libs-20100524-w81t.html
I like having truthy here, else we would all just be nodding earnestly and agreeing with each other and well in some perverted way it’s funny when someone continually makes a fool of themselves and doesn’t realise it.
Boerwar@508
And there might be some farmed calamari to add protein to our algae (at $500/kilo) by 2030.
LOL! Kroger predicts the Liberals will win the election, what a goose.
I wonder what he is going to say when the Australian electorate re-elects what he considers the worst Government ever?
I think what gets missed is that Governments (of whichever persuasion) are held to a higher level of accountability than oppositions. This is because they have the power, the levers of administration and hold the purse strings.
They cannot be seen to be abusing power, they need to run an effective administration and not be wasting the taxpayers money. And they have a position of trust and to be accountable to parliament. The role of both the press and the opposition is to hold them to this. As a result, a government will be under a much greater level of press scrutiny than an opposition – and because of this, it may be construed as bias against the government if you happen to agree with the governments position. And governments have ways and means of avoiding scrutiny.
An opposition will not be subject to the same level of scrutiny as they have not been entrusted with the responsibility of government. The Opposition has to prove that they are worthy to be an alternative government which is why thay are put under the blowtorch at election time. There is hierarchy of scrutiny as well in that the government comes under the highest, opposition second, and third parties (such as the Greens) way behind and to a much lesser intensity as they cannot form a government.
Jon @ 503. I’m a bit confused here…don’t know what you’re responding to/
Esrom is a pungent cheese, Harry. Unfornately, Mr Wensleydale doesn’t have any.
marktwain, you may disagree with me that some parts of the ABC have become an echo chamber for the O.O. and other parts of the MSM, but if you’d like, the next time I have some free time, probably a holiday, I’ll actually devote the time to an impartial analysis.
How’s that? Care to match that commitment to prove the reverse argument?
Re China’s one child policy. When I was there last year I met some young Americans who had been teaching English at a provincial university. Their stories about the corruption and low standards in the Chinese education were enlightening – they didn’t think China would be taking over the world any time soon. But they also told me they had conducted an experiment. One day they asked in all their classes for everyone who had a brother to put their hand up, then everyone who had a sister. Well over half had a sibling, with a male-female ratio of 60-40. So there is widespread evasion of the one child policy, particularly outside the big cities, aided by corrupt and indifferent minor officials. Children are farmed out to extended families and shifted around so the inspectors don’t find them. This suggests that China’s demographic future may not be so dire, but the gender imbalance is a big problem. There are about to be millions of men who can’t find a wife. Maybe they should emigrate to Japan and solve two problems at once.
So Adam are you suggesting that all of these young Chinese men should go and find themselves a 100 year old Japanese cougar?
G
For some it is rates of pressure. If these are lifted, fisheries can recover. Lots of them produce huge numbers of eggs, so recovery can be quite rapid. For others it is not possible to recover because the ecology has changed (predators, competitors, parasites, diseases, food fish – the mix has changed and there are, as they say, high barriers to entry; Sometimes there is no recovery possible because the physical condition of the water has changed. For example, because rivers have been siphoned off, there is no longer enough fresh water entering the Mediterranean to flush it out to the Atlantic. The current that runs past the Rock now runs permanently into the Mediterranean. None of the prodigous amounts and variety of crap that the Mediterranean countries pour into the Mediterranean is going anywhere. I seem to recall that they are down to their last several hundred tuna… but I might be wrong on that.
The Baltic is near as bad… it used to have a magnificent herring fishery. Pilchards used to turn the waters along England’s coast a blueish black colour. The schools were so large and so thick that there was, at times, an oily sheen on the sea’s surface. Now, de nada.
As you say, fish can, and do, chase suitable conditions.
It is very interesting that there has already been concern expressed in the US because their major fisheries are shifting beyond their national borders in response to ocean warming. Those fisheries will enter tragedy of the commons territory and will be, as you say, decimated like nearly all tragedy of the commons fisheries in the world.
Is it too late? The number and variety of fish now living in the Thames is incredibly much higher than it was in the late fifties and sixties. So, there is hope.
Gee, Kroger sounds really confident:
[This government may well lose this election]
Thanks, marktwain, a smelly cheese. Who’d a thunk it?
Harry
*****, I mean MT doesnt wnat to debate auntie’s indiscretions one suspects
Adam, it is permissable if I recall, to have 2 children in rural areas, so the provincial university may have accounted for some of that.
*goes to dream of the big trout that got away*
B
SWMBO has this delightful text from 1894 describing the descration of the Nth sea stocks- haddock etc
the funny thing is that in 1904 they recorded the biggest cAtch on record to date
management is the key
marktwain, you may disagree with me that some parts of the ABC have become an echo chamber for the O.O. and other parts of the MSM, but if you’d like, the next time I have some free time, probably a holiday, I’ll actually devote the time to an impartial analysis.
How’s that? Care to match that commitment to prove the reverse argument?
Nope, I’ll just quote blackburnpseph at 515. Actually, I’ve copied his post and will paste it everytime I see these bias claims repeated, or until Billy finally kicks me off PB.
Happy to get together and discuss sarcasm and whippets, however.
MT
Whippets are great dogs. Used to have one myself.
Didn’t Kroger confidently predict that the Libs would win in 2007?
He’s just a partisan right wing windbag, much like Truthy! 😆
MT
Mind you, you could be talking about the car.
MT
I wish I knew a sarcastic whippet- we could have fun
😉
Ta, Gus, I think I should head off to the land of Nod, it’s been a bugger of a week all told.
Gary the essential poll on the RSPT is a better question, although it should say 40% ON PROFITS OVER 6%
blackburnpseph,
[I think what gets missed is that Governments (of whichever persuasion) are held to a higher level of accountability than oppositions. This is because they have the power, the levers of administration and hold the purse strings.
They cannot be seen to be abusing power, they need to run an effective administration and not be wasting the taxpayers money. And they have a position of trust and to be accountable to parliament. The role of both the press and the opposition is to hold them to this.]
Were you in a coma for the twelve years prior to December 1, 2007?
[And governments have ways and means of avoiding scrutiny.}
The previous one sure was. With the assistance of a compliant media and stacking the ABC Board as well as constantly attacking it for bias in Senate Estimates. They even put together a Department to log all ABC reporting and current affairs programs.
It seems you have conveniently forgotten this?
What I find baffling is Michael Kroger’s claim that there was a revolution in the “mid 1970s”, were we had to:
[Lower the size of government, reduce government intervention in people’s lives, have government sell off institutions that they shouldn’t be running, lower taxes, smaller government, freeing up the workplace, freeing up the ports, the whole economic revolution took place post Thatcher.]
Does he really believe all of this?
When Whitlam was elected, federal spending was 18.5% of GDP. When he was sacked it was 24.2%.
But here’s the curious thing. When Fraser lost, it was, wait for it, 25.7%!
When Keating lost, it was 25.5%
When Howard lost, it was 23.2%
Next year it is estimated to be 25.1%
When the budget returns to surplus, it is expected to be 23.8%.
I’m not disputing that there wasn’t a lot of important economic reforms, mainly conducted by Labor, to privitise QANTAS, Commonwealth Bank etc. But the astonishing thing throughout the 1970s in Australia is the CONSENSUS that formed around dramatically increasing federal government spending to below 20% of GDP, to around 24 – 25%.
That is the real revolution that is now bipartisan, not even the current Liberal Party is saying the federal government should go back to spending less than 20% of GDP.
Of course, we shouldn’t trust much that Kroger says. He mentions Ronald Reagan who only cut U.S. federal government spending by 0.5% of GDP! Compare that to Bill Clinton who cut it by 2%!
*****, I mean MT doesnt wnat to debate auntie’s indiscretions one suspects
My auntie is a paragon of virtue, thank you very much.
MT
Is that the one with sarcastic whippets?
[Didn’t Kroger confidently predict that the Libs would win in 2007?
He’s just a partisan right wing windbag, much like Truthy! :lol:]
It is much more informative and entertaining having someone on who OCCASIONALLY deviates even a TINY bit from the party line. Howes does that (though he didn’t on the issues tonight), but Kroger NEVER does.
So, IMO, Lateline should simply get an actual Liberal MP on. Why not get Malcolm Turnbull on instead of Kroger? Turnbull would probably do a bit of deviating, and at least say things that are interesting.
The thing about claims of bias is, it reminds me of claims the crazy cons were making prior to 07….and well that can never be a good look can it? And I’m sure the “MSM” concept was an invention of the “oh no GWB is going to hell in a handbasket but look Sarah Palin is the new messiah” crowd……maybe?
He did and he is. I wish lateline would stop getting him on. They may as well just get a Tory frontbencher on. You’d get the same pre-rehersed, completely gormless, uninformative rhetoric.
adieu and may your sails always be wet
😉
I’ve always thought Kroger was over-rated. He’s gutless, too. He badly wanted to be an MP but was never willing to do the necessary things. He wanted it on a plate.
Paul Howes has the potential to be a great Labor leader, but not just yet, I’m told. The union wants him to stay for a while, and after that the ACTU needs a big shakeup. Can anyone recall the last time they heard an ACTU president say or do anything?
Is that the one with sarcastic whippets?
No, Dinsdale ripped all their heads off (in a sarcastic way, of course.)
the ACTU needs a big shakeup. Can anyone recall the last time they heard an ACTU president say or do anything?
Ged Kearney might surprise you.
[ I’ve always thought Kroger was over-rated ]
Another Elliot, wants it on a silver platter.
[I’ve always thought Kroger was over-rated. He’s gutless, too. He badly wanted to be an MP but was never willing to do the necessary things. He wanted it on a plate. ]
It’s not surprising Costello didn’t become PM with people like Kroger ‘supporting’ him.
I’m surprised Kroger couldn’t get a Senate seat when his ex-wife did.
Scorpio
The way the Howard government carried on about ABC “bias” was ridiculous and petty but it does show that they were being scrutinised or were sensitive to scrutiny. With reference to polictial appointments – the ALP did it too during the Hawke – Keating years – according to Wikipedia 10 of 12 political appointments during that time were obvious ALP sympathisers – and the Keating government removed committee scrutiny of appointments.
Sanity prevails:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/court-orders-jehovahs-witness-boy-be-given-blood-transfusion/story-e6frea83-1225875658322
“Can anyone recall the last time they heard an ACTU president say or do anything?”
I once saw Sharan Burrow on the tele dancing at a WorkChoices rally. It was a sort of 60s hippy around the fire at Woodstock dance – It did not engender credibility!
I once saw Sharan Burrow on the tele dancing at a WorkChoices rally. It was a sort of 60s hippy around the fire at Woodstock dance – It did not engender credibility!
Sharan’s off to dance around the ITUC. The new president is Ged Kearney, from the ANF, who thankfully will never portray the bovver boy image many want.