Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted entirely over last weekend, has Labor’s lead at 56.5-43.5, down from 57.5-42.5 the week before and back where it was a fortnight earlier. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 45 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 37.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 9 per cent.

UPDATE (28/2): Sydney’s Sun Herald newspaper has published a Taverner poll of 609 NSW voters with a remarkable headline figure of 50-50 on two-party preferred. However, Labor’s primary vote lead of 42 per cent to 39 per cent makes clear this figure is askew. Clearly Taverner have derived it by asking minor supporters where their preferences will go, which from the small sample of such respondents (about 115) has produced a non-credible flow of 58-42 to the Coalition. Using the more reliable method of extrapolating the preference flow from the last election (62-38 to Labor) produces an entirely plausible two-party split of 54-46 to Labor, representing no change on the 2007 election result (53.7-46.3).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,863 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

Comments Page 4 of 38
1 … 3 4 5 … 38

  1. Harry – I agree with your last point on the weak initial response. What’s that saying about pyrrhic victories. Combet should be useful there though in making Labor more aggressive in their responses to future extremist attacks from the hun.

  6. From a friend of mine’s Twitter – the Shonks are still touting for work.

    vk3xem

    Why are scammers rtill calling, claiming they work for Peter Garrett & want to install insulation? 2 minutes ago via Tweets60

  7. streetcred, did you have a look at Possum’s site? Particularly on the reporting. He articulates a lot of my frustration very well, as I have only intermittent opportunity to pay attention.

  8. The Finnigans
    I heard PJK on ABC 702 the other day doing the same job on his design opponents. Made me realise what a coterie of rhetorical lightweights he left behind him in Parliament.

    Still, as good as it was to hear the job he did on them, I don’t like the massive hotel to go over the water, and he seems a bit cosy with Lend Lease on the whole plan.

  10. Vera – poor sooky Tone on Ch 9 has to stay on his miserable salary while Pete still takes home the bacon. Must be awfully hard for Tone to pay for his bikeriding, swimming, etc. on his paltry money.

    What is this talk about him getting chummy with some woman in Bathurst, I think. No. 1 kid mentioned it to us tonight.

  12. I noticed Bill Shorten out there with some workers tonight. He’s another good egg to have around with them. Combet and Shorten working together with YRAW will be good.

  14. [Wot? Did he covet her ass?]

    By what our kid said – yep. Apparently a lot of talk going on where it happened. Who knows – might have been his an old friend.

  16. [..bBut it is nevertheless true that Abbott and the MSM have been rabbiting on about the deaths in the absence of the outcome of proper process. This is not good for our polity under any government.]

    HSO I tend to agree with that. If the Coroner’s report puts the blame on to those employers not following regulations and procedures, as suggested by Heather Rideout, then the media and the LIbs have gone batty without due consideration.

    We watched some of the Senate hearing while having dinner (it’s a wonder we didn’t get indigestion!). Senator Barnett continually prattled on about the 4 deaths and the families. This Committee is sitting too early but we’ve all known what the outcome will be from Day 1. At the moment it looks like they are sheeting it home to the PM and ARbib for not asking questions.

  19. BH @ # 2940 Previous thread

    I saw the devestation in family law matters. People who didn’t understand how it works , or have the ability to handle money, were in dreadful situations. No matter how carefully you explain contracts to some people they never seem able to retain the info.

    …

    My gripe is for the number of naive people that Harvey entices when he doesn’t believe in the process for himself.

    The question here BH is to what extent are we our brothers keeper and to what extent should we go to determine others competencies in respect of issues that are just “day to day living”.

    I have know people that though they are very skilled in their chose fields had no hope of balancing the cash in their wallet let alone a cheque book. I have also know people who appear that they would have problems doing up their shoe laces let alone understanding a contract who are really very astute and despite appearances conducted these sort of things with ease.

    I have no doubt that the situations to which you refer are real and numerous but to what extent should we impose a responsible on retailers to make such judgements.

    However, this is not to condone those situations where it is clear to everyone that the customer is not fit to make such a decision and the retailer abuses its position.

    My gripe is for the number of naive people that Harvey entices when he doesn’t believe in the process for himself.

    I suppose the question that arises out of this statement is; “is Hardley Normal” over represented amongst those who find themselves in trouble and if so why?

  20. Socrates @ # 2956 Previous thread

    We can both think of other candidates where this proposition might be painfully true

    I am afraid that this is too true.

  21. [SALES OF Mossad-themed T-shirts, available by mail order, have risen tenfold since the Israeli spy agency was linked to last month’s assassination in Dubai.]
    Just the thing to wear when you’re getting your passport photo taken!

  23. And here is next week’s topic de jour from the Fibs and their cheer squad.

    theburgerman

    Still a tough time ahead for Garrett and Rudd. The Oppn’s line of attack will be that the demotion doesn’t go far enough (unsurpringly) … 2 minutes ago via Twitterrific

  24. OzPol Tragic @ # 2957 previous thread

    Can’t argue about “Hardley Normal” prices. From memory I think we have only purchased one item from them and that would have been 20 to 30 years ago. I know then that I getting a good deal but as for now I have no idea.

    It is over 6 years since I was a member of a Union so I have lost all contact with their members schemes. However, a bit of shopping around (as they say “walking with you fingers”) usually turns up a reasonable deal. For example I am up for a new computer this year and I know where I am going. It is a small computer shop whose prices, though not the lowest are still very competitive. The advantage is that every time I have had problems he has helped out and it has been free for quite a few hours work. The cheapest place around here is very cheap but once you walk out the door they don’t want to know you.

    Harvey Norman is a very expensive place to shop, esp for a cash buyer.

    Very rarely purchase things for cash excluding small purchases. Everything is either on the plastic or through some other deal like the “buy now don’t have to pay for youks” schemes. I find it is always cheaper to use other people’s money. However, there are exceptions and the computer I mentioned will be for cash.

    I have accounts at as many places that I can but I always pay on the due date and with a credit card if possible. By the time I eventually pay for something it is sometimes up to 4, 5 or 6 months after I actually got the item.

    Of cause there is a day of reckoning and that will be when I fall off the perch but the money is always available to pay all the debts if they fall due tomorrow.

  25. # theburgerman

    … and, in the end, costly to the taxpayer. less than a minute ago via Twitterrific

    # John Bergin theburgerman

    … and Garrett’s remaining portfolio duties and Cabinet membership is evidence of poor division and administration of responsibilites … 2 minutes ago via Twitterrific

  27. [The cheapest place around here is very cheap but once you walk out the door they don’t want to know you.]

    Commonly known as the 50 metre warranty. Did you know that Harvey Norman makes more Gross Profit on selling extended warranty than they do on the product?

  29. I would love to see the PM announce on Monday that they will be introducing legislation to ban foreign media ownership in australia.

  32. [And here is next week’s topic de jour from the Fibs and their cheer squad.]

    Despte the fact he works for Sky, I have to say I find John Bergin (at least in his twitter) to be pretty good. He makes his case for his side (Sky), but he is open to discussion.

  34. [have no doubt that the situations to which you refer are real and numerous but to what extent should we impose a responsible on retailers to make such judgements.]

    Ratsars – a vexed question and one I’ve turned over many times. I guess I am rather coloured by the misery I’ve seen over 40 odd yrs but it rather escalated with the ‘no interest for …’ plans. Have to agree with you about people tho – some of the highly educated professional lot had just as many problems as the less skilled and there were many surprises. In the end they are all people who need help.

  35. Wow!Q Lateline featured the speaker’s reaction today when a mobile phone rang during session. Not happy! Turn them off. Turn all electronic devices off. Take the plugs out of your ears. If you want to use them go outside. There are plenty of places here you can do it. And they all sat there meekly!

    Maybe Harry Jenkins should follow suit. What would Oppo members do then – listen, maybe?

  37. I was somewhat puzzld by Tony’s ideas’ forum that was announced yesterday. I can’t work out why he would roll out such a low-ball, uninspiring concept.

    The Australian ran with it under the heading of “Abbott slams Rudd Summit ideas”.

    Now I’m seeing a wider narrative emerging for the Libs.

    The 20/20 summit was a celebrity rollcall that produced nothing of substance, but it did aligned the ALP to popular figures. Why remind us of that now?? what’s the point tony?

    Weeeelllll……Garrett was the ultimate celebrity candidate wasn’t he? No marginal seat for him, he has Kingston Smith.

    Just thinking…on my second beer now

  40. Here’s something to liven up a Friday night:

    This is a political advertisement in the lead up to elections in Costa Rica. Watch it – you’ve never seen a political ad like it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEu7d53sTO0&feature=player_embedded

    A rough translation of the lyrics is: “I’m voting for Luis, my baby is born, the less bad is the best, that’s why I’ll elect is the best! It is realistic and honest, I believe in him. In February I vote for Luis! The least bad is the best: Fishman.”

    Apparently Fishman ran a campaign based around the concept that all the candidates suck, but he sucks the least. It didn’t quite work – the election was held earlier this month and Fishman pulled in just 3.8 per cent of the vote.

  42. Gary Bruce
    [Geez it’s hard to do tongue in cheek commentary here without being taken seriously.]
    Is that the sort of commentary they do at the Sydney Mardi Gras?
    😆

  47. [The 20/20 summit was a celebrity rollcall that produced nothing of substance, but it did aligned the ALP to popular figures. Why remind us of that now?? what’s the point tony?

    Weeeelllll……Garrett was the ultimate celebrity candidate wasn’t he? No marginal seat for him, he has Kingston Smith.]
    And you’re expecting the general populace to make that connection? Good luck with that.
    Abbott lost all credibility on his opposition to the 20/20 summit by holding his own summit IMHO. What a joke.

  49. Trying to catch up with posts I’ve missed.
    Frank, maybe go a bit easier on Latika. She’s young and niave rather than maliciously biased. Not saying don’t point out the error of her ways, but maybe do it a bit gently. There is a chance she will learn. maybe, I hope,

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 38
1 … 3 4 5 … 38