Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted entirely over last weekend, has Labor’s lead at 56.5-43.5, down from 57.5-42.5 the week before and back where it was a fortnight earlier. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 45 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 37.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 9 per cent.

UPDATE (28/2): Sydney’s Sun Herald newspaper has published a Taverner poll of 609 NSW voters with a remarkable headline figure of 50-50 on two-party preferred. However, Labor’s primary vote lead of 42 per cent to 39 per cent makes clear this figure is askew. Clearly Taverner have derived it by asking minor supporters where their preferences will go, which from the small sample of such respondents (about 115) has produced a non-credible flow of 58-42 to the Coalition. Using the more reliable method of extrapolating the preference flow from the last election (62-38 to Labor) produces an entirely plausible two-party split of 54-46 to Labor, representing no change on the 2007 election result (53.7-46.3).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,863 thoughts on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. Squiggle:

    Some of the stolen identities are french and german. The phones used were Austrian. Have you heard outraged comments from these countries?

    To quote Der Spiegel:

    Because these victims of identity theft are all people with dual Israeli and European citizenship, the governments of Britain, Ireland, France and Germany have also been drawn into the affair. Based on their almost unanimous reactions, it seems clear that they hold Israel responsible for the operation carried out by the “Dubai 11.” London summoned the Israeli ambassador to appear at the Foreign Office. Member of Parliament Menzies Campbell said that “the Israeli government has some explaining to do,” while Foreign Secretary David Miliband called the Dubai killing an “outrage.”

    Ireland was next, followed by France and, on Thursday, Germany, where Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle used unusually frank language when he said: “In light of the information revealed to date, I believe that a thorough investigation into the circumstances of the death of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh is urgently needed.”

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,679764,00.html

  2. Smart move to give Combet responsibility for the home insulation program. He will not only smack the opposition around in QT on that issue but his attack on CC deniers in the opposition has been very strong. The more questions they ask him the more bruises they’ll suffer.

  3. If Labor got over it, why did they cry about the Pacific Solution for years despite it being highly successful and then scrap it, even though they voted for it?

    I would fully support a Labor government bringing back the measures immediately. Nauru probably just needs a dust off and it’ll be back to business!

  4. We need to consider the possibility that Garrett asked to be excused responsibility for the next installation program.

    I remember hearing comments (maybe it was George M on Insiders) as to why Peter Garrett would want to continue suffering the attacks in the media and from opposition. The personal cost to Garrett must have been huge and its quite possible he didn’t want to go around again.

    My view all along is that he has done OK, all things considered.

    The real attack should be on the decision makers who chose to burn through the insulation industry in order to provide stimulus to the Australian economy.

  8. ore Combet trivia:

    My father was a winemaker at Penfolds at the Minchinbury Estate. He died when I was 13 and this remains perhaps the most formative experience of my life. He instilled in me a sense of community, and I recall spending much of my time with him at community service and fundraising events in which he participated as a member of Rotary. Like many of my generation, I was influenced by the major political and cultural events of the 1960s and 1970s, particularly the tumult over the Vietnam War and the excitement surrounding Labor’s political ascendancy under Gough Whitlam,although, I have to say, in Rooty Hill these events were almost eclipsed by the shock and outrage over the nude scene in the rock musical Hair.

    http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/firstspeech.asp?id=YW6

    The role of Combet was played by Daniel Frederiksen in the 2007 Australian Broadcasting Corporation television series Bastard Boys, dramatising the 1998 Australian waterfront dispute. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Combet

  9. TTH said

    Hey Labor voted for the Pacific Solution, so why did they cry about it so much?

    So what’s your point? That Labor was hypocritical? If that’s the case what does that make today’s Liberal party? At least Labor has moved on whereas the Liberals are still sliding around in the gutter.

    Comment?

  10. Truthy,

    With unemployment at 5.3% and apparently declining, you’ll find they are out working to make a better Australia for us all. Just like the blocs of immigrants from earlier generations.

  11. Smart move to give Combet responsibility for the home insulation program.

    He’s also an ex-union man who most voters associate with the Your Rights At Work campaign. Having him as the face of the scheme now deadens the opposition’s industrial manslaughter attack.

  13. We need to consider the possibility that Garrett asked to be excused responsibility for the next installation program.

    now i hope they tel the story about Mr.Garrett and his tragic story when a boy

  14. Thansk Stephen D, hadn’t seen that before ( what is a speigal by the way)

    But it seems like it is Der Speigel that is outraged, whereas the politicians quoted are more measured.

    For example, this from Gordon Brown on Feb 17 from another source

    some editing from me

    the prime minister told London’s LBC radio station: “We are looking at this at this very moment. …The evidence has got to be assembled ….and it is necessary for us to accumulate that evidence before we can make statements.”

    I wish for similarly measured statements from Rudd and Smith

  16. I think Rudd has done the right thing. Combet is excellent and will nullify the issue.

    Ron

    You can give your opinon , so ?

    My opinion is basically worthless on Arab-Israeli stuff.

  17. Greg Combet is a very impressive politician who will expose the Liberals hypocrisy regarding industrial safety. Great move Mr. Rudd

  18. i suggested him ona site weeks ago i went through all the ministers and outer ministers
    history. and found he was an engineer Not saying any one would take notice of me and they would not.
    it makes sense to me to give a person a job that fits his qualifications.

    so i feel a little O well thats great.

  19. if i could stand it i would look at thier c.v but i feel ill when i go there.

    i have valed from today never ever to go to an abc site again so i can stay sain

  20. WESTERN Australia was the biggest loser in the annual carve-up of GST revenue, the Commonwealth’s Grants Commission review released today shows.
    The resource state’s share of the GST revenue pot will fall to 7.1 per cent in 2010/11 from 8.1 per cent in 2009/10, an expected $223 million decrease

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/western-australia-suffers-biggest-cut-in-gst-revenue/story-e6frg6nf-1225834838383

    Ooops poor Buswell – he really needs that pork-for-regions money now. Guess the budget surplus was a really non-core promise.

  22. How long before the opposition attack Combet for being an ex union man who is now over regulating the home insulation industry? They’ll consider safety to be an impediment to small business’ maximising profit.

  23. I suspect Opposition questions to Greg Combet will be very few & far between. If the Howard government feared anyone more than Greg Combet, I’ve yet to hear about it. He’s up there with Julia Gillard as the MP local Libs & Nats are most terrified will succeed Rudd. Just the “scalps” he took in the campaigns mentioned below are a good indication why (& one of them’s still on the Oppo Front Bench)

    Combet has co-ordinated many union campaigns, including the 1998 Australian waterfront dispute in which he rose to prominence, as well as campaigns to secure entitlements and compensation for the staff of the collapsed airline Ansett Australia and asbestos victims of the James Hardie company. In his capacity as Secretary of the ACTU, Combet led the campaign against the Howard Government’s industrial relations law changes.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Combet

  24. They’ll consider safety to be an impediment to small business’ maximising profit.

    Then they’ll be hypocrites given the fuss they’ve made over the deaths. Personally I’d love to see Combet mess with their heads by musing about tighter regulatory safeguards. LOL.

  25. NSW Premier Kristina Keneally has inflamed Sydney-Melbourne rivalry while defending her government’s ability to attract major events to the harbour city.

    “I’d say this: Melbourne is a nice place to visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there,” she said.

    Adelaide doesn’t even rate a mention.:(

  26. Finally, NSW is getting a bigger slice of the GST pie. Now, if only the NSW govt (this one, and the next) could do something useful with it.

  27. Ooops poor Buswell – he really needs that pork-for-regions money now. Guess the budget surplus was a really non-core promise.

    Surplus? The Liberal Treasurer smells debt on the horizon …

    Daily Telegraph, 19 December 2008 :

    … Treasurer Troy Buswell yesterday confirmed the state’s AAA credit rating was potentially at risk, with net debt projected to be 50 per cent of revenue by 2010-11 and 60.9 per cent the following year, The Australian reports.

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24822262-5014099,00.html

  28. Not too many comments on the Morgan, I see. Quite a good result for the Govt. considering the installation and “Stokesgate” media feeding frenzies the past fortnight.

    Excellent decision to get Garrett out of any areas within which he didn’t already have extensive experience prior to his political career, let alone any program involving such massive funds being spent in a cowboy dominated industry.
    If the installation program was, as many have insisted, doomed from it’s conception due to an egregiously unethical and inefficient private sector, then it’s better that Garrett took one for the team.

  29. StephenD
    Posted Friday, February 26, 2010 at 4:03 pm | Permalink
    “I think that’s a poor decision. It pretty much gives the MSM the scalp they’ve been after, never mind the Opposition.”

    think you 1/10 rite and 90/10 wRONG

    You realize I know this WHOLE Garrett affair had legs only because of 4 deaths
    Because a Minister can not be over sholder of every trady in oz checking there Safety standards comply , and it IS employers responsible then it was always a sleezy Abbott pushed Media beatup

    There was never going to be an end to th MSN attacks , seeing 4 people had died

    So Rudd properly takes responsible for th Insulation Program meaning NO ONE was going to accuse Rudd for th deaths , AND has to defer Program to stop beatup going on

    Then hypocritcaly MSN started ‘running’ th result of closing Program , workers victims losing there jobs There was no end to those hypocritical pretend care for workers storys either !! ,

    Except by Rudd killin all hypocrits sleezy avenues all up , one by taking th persanel responsible , deferring th Program , and then corect acting to ‘demote’ Peter Garett

    Now IF Kevin rudd had NOT done demoted Peter Garrett , after personel taking responsible and also admiting there were some thingys ( but not th deaths) that could be done better like poor qual insulation suppliers , that non demotion decision would be equal to NOT taking responsible , geez

    Remember , had either Abbotts or MSN case had credibilitys , then Garrett wuld have been sacked He was NOT

    demotion is price for th poor quals insulation outcome , not for deaths , not for fires

    Its called a value sentense fitting th a function performed , not that th biased would see that

  30. Adelaide doesn’t even rate a mention.:(

    Diogenes,
    Having sojourned in Adelaide several times, I reckon it’s the best kept secret in Australia. If I lived there, I’d want it to stay a secret and not be “rooned” by massive hordes of East Australians moving there.

  31. According to Rudd, Garrett definitely didn’t ask to be relieved of his duties. It was Rudd’s decision to dump him.

    Mr Rudd said that Mr Garrett “accepted my decision. I indicated that’s the decision I had taken. The minister accepted my decision”.

  32. Comment?

    I did comment idiot.

    I said if they got over it, why did they cry about it for years. Christ they were the ones who voted for it, i’ve never seen such a whine against something they supported and WORKED!

    Lib MP’s are no longer under silverspoon Turnbull, so they should be free to speak their minds on this issue, especially since Rudd’s policy on boatpeople is a failed one. This will be a big negative at the next election for Rudd as we watch another 6000 boatpeople sail in on the public tit.

  35. NSW Premier Kristina Keneally has inflamed Sydney-Melbourne rivalry while defending her government’s ability to attract major events to the harbour city.

    “I’d say this: Melbourne is a nice place to visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there,” she said.

    I’d say Sydney is a nice place to visit, but I wouldn’t want to vote there.
    Have a good weekend all.

  40. Vera,
    Thanks for the link to Rudd and Keneally opening the Nat’l Indigenous Centre.

    When Obama visits us, I hope that he’ll reserve some of his time to teach Rudd how to shoot a basketball. 🙂

  41. Garrett is a joke and the fact Rudd hasnt sacked him will benefit the Libs more as they can show Rudd thinks Peter G is a first class minister yet demotes him.

    Ever since Tone became leader the focus has been on the government and its failings. Three cheers for Tone!

  42. If we take away the Morgan pro-Labor bias of 5% we end up with:

    51.5% Labor
    48.5% Coalition

    Pretty good result for the Coalition if they can keep improving.

  44. Wasn’t she a Queen, who’s pic now appears on crud plonk?

    That’s a relief. I thought that she may have been someone allegedly having an affair with a certain Premier of a certain state.

  45. I did comment idiot.

    Are you on the slops already?

    So what’s the answer to these two questions:

    1. Did the Liberal party oppose the changes to policy in the parliament?
    2. If they didn’t object doesn’t that make them hypocrites to now be complaining about the changes?

    BTW, I’m not interested in comments about a change of leader enabling changes to of party opinion. I’m asking you about the party’s considered opinion rather than short term political opportunity.

  46. Adelaide is the intellectual and cultural capital of Australia; the Athens of the Southern Hemisphere.

    Although Athens is a shambolic barbarian dive now so I don’t know that whoever coined that phrase was doing us any favours.

  47. When Obama visits us, I hope that he’ll reserve some of his time to teach Rudd how to shoot a basketball

    Our gun laws are somewhat stricter than those in the States.

  49. Ru that is your opinion.
    Anyway we’ll have TAS maybe even SA by then in the bag!
    Tone will probably limit the losses and pick up a few here and there 😀

  50. Are you on the slops already?

    Two and counting… it is beer o’clock afterall.

    1. Did the Liberal party oppose the changes to policy in the parliament?

    I believe silver spoon Turnbull was in charge.

    2. If they didn’t object doesn’t that make them hypocrites to now be complaining about the changes?

    NO. Becuase the policy is a failed one. You don’t continue on with a failed policy, you change it.

    A 1600% increase in boatpeople is a FAILED boatpeople policy. Bring back the old laws that actually WORKED.

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