Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted entirely over last weekend, has Labor’s lead at 56.5-43.5, down from 57.5-42.5 the week before and back where it was a fortnight earlier. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 45 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 37.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 9 per cent.

UPDATE (28/2): Sydney’s Sun Herald newspaper has published a Taverner poll of 609 NSW voters with a remarkable headline figure of 50-50 on two-party preferred. However, Labor’s primary vote lead of 42 per cent to 39 per cent makes clear this figure is askew. Clearly Taverner have derived it by asking minor supporters where their preferences will go, which from the small sample of such respondents (about 115) has produced a non-credible flow of 58-42 to the Coalition. Using the more reliable method of extrapolating the preference flow from the last election (62-38 to Labor) produces an entirely plausible two-party split of 54-46 to Labor, representing no change on the 2007 election result (53.7-46.3).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,863 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. [I was talking about the election promise theat the WA Libs would keep the budget in surplus.]

    I guessed you were referring to something along those lines. But it’s kind of satisfying to be able to associate a Liberal government with escalating government debt.

  3. [Three cheers for Tone!]

    He’ll be thrown out on his arse by the Thursday after election day. Then all the excuses from the media and the Liberal party will start about him being too big a risk which the party should have seen based on his disastrous performances in the 2007 campaign.

  8. Ever since Tone became leader the focus has been on the government and its failings. Three cheers for Tone!

    Glen,
    Does this mean you’re delighted that every time Labor is in trouble, Joyce will come to the government’s rescue with some gormless, if not looney, comment about the economy?

    Heckuva job picking Joyce as your Finance spokesman, Tone! 🙂

  10. [And for Rudd/Labor to do this on a Friday afternoon… lovely media management…]
    What is so surprising about that? He certainly wouldn’t want to do it while parliament was sitting. Sheesh.

  11. [Never fear Tom… Media Mike is reinstating the trams again. They’re a little bit like electric trains.]
    Do you mean a full system in Adelaide?

  12. Hem hmmm

    Better inside the tent than outside I reckon. I dont really like the Nationals I barely tolerate them. In my ideal world we’d have 1 party called the Conservative Party but most people already know my views in this regard.

    Still Coonan wasnt much better to be honest more like invisible at least Barnyard is visible. Remember what Oscar Wilde said…

  13. [Diog…”The Athens of the South” was always a demeaning term and often used by comedians and commentators.]

    Thanks for that clarification. Now I finally undertand why my city, Wollongong, has frequently been called “The Athens of the NSW South Coast”.

  15. I believe that it is only a few lines and extensions here connected to the rail network and there not a proper system. However Adelaide is electrifying its rails network but it is nowhere near finished yet.

  16. No GB but the Tram infrastructure is coming back in stages to key areas like the Entertainment Centre. I doubt they would ever come back to the levels of the fifty’s.

  18. Yes Glen, I do remember what Oscar Wilde said.
    Wilde also said to lose one parent can be regarded as unfortunate, but to lose two looks like carelessness. This might explain why Rudd is going to great lengths not to lose a second minister’s scalp. 🙂

  19. I suppose that when Boofhead Abbott gets “bored” with economics (which is apparently a lot of the time) he can count on good old Braying Barnaby to provide some comic relief. New economic term: “gross-net debt”

  21. Diogenes
    Posted Friday, February 26, 2010 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Ron: ‘You can give your opinon (pretending israel is not gulty of assasination) , so ? ‘

    “My opinion is basically worthless on Arab-Israeli stuff.”

    that was a quick back step
    you did not even move

  24. Shanahan knows that the issue will cool from here on thanks to today’s change. He knows that Combet will be receive more air time than Garrett and that will be a plus for the government. Trying to disguise his fears with this sort of wacky analysis is laughable.

    Shanahan knows the big bonus he’ll receive if the Liberals win in 2010 has all but disappeared. That pleases me greatly.

  25. Hemingway

    Not too many comments on the Morgan, I see. Quite a good result for the Govt. considering the installation and “Stokesgate” media feeding frenzies the past fortnight.

    Change within MoE. Steady as she goes. No one really listening to Coalition & Media beat-ups. Rudd & Co performed well during QT. AntiRudd meeja, blog & L-NP types seriously not happy!

    So what’s new?

  26. [In my ideal world we’d have 1 party called the Conservative Party]

    I agree. Then you Conservatives would be able to indulge in the fun which Labor Party members enjoy with their “take no prisoners” factional warfare. Might not be so bad now, but in the 70’s and 80’s many of my Party comrades openly engaged in friendships, even marriages, with conservative people, but would never willingly socialise with someone from an opposing faction.

  27. Hem we have factions now but we try to downplay their significance.
    This way we’d have everyone anti-Labor batting on the same team!

  28. bob1234
    Posted Friday, February 26, 2010 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    “And for Rudd/Labor to do this on a Friday afternoon… lovely media management…”

    think bob um-gate , is an ex comunicated Liberal ,
    landing in Democrats , which folded ,
    and now landin in th Greens as no one wuld take him

    his anti labor snips always hav a ‘bitter” flavor , unlike th Greens ‘jealousy’ flavor

  30. [Hem we have factions now but we try to downplay their significance.
    This way we’d have everyone anti-Labor batting on the same team!]

    Trouble is, Glen, that they all field on the right hand side of the paddock and the majority of the voters hit down the centre.

  32. Glen
    Forgive the pun-ishment, but surely Joyce is more batty than batting.

    For the record, I’d reckon the same thing about a couple of the NSW Keneally government’s ministers.

  34. [which one , th old libs excl Nats , or th new all inclusive loving one]

    Ron.

    The one registered with the AEC – the LNP is the Qld State Branch of the Liberal Party – the National Party is not a registered Party in Qld. The Federal Nats think this is a minor technical issue – they may need to re-think. 😉

  36. [if Nats had some assets , did Libs as th now only registered Paty , end up with them]

    Ron it was the other way ’round. The Nats took over the Libs and their “assets”. They also took over their name.

  37. [If we take away the Morgan pro-Labor bias of 5% we end up with:
    51.5% Labor
    48.5% Coalition]

    If we apply a random factor we get Labor 90% Coalition 10%. Wow. That’s awesome!

  38. Permalink
    BH from vera to

    Have a look at Kev with Kristina playing basketball
    He looks at home reading with the kids too
    Not looking like he’s under too much pressure to me!

    Thanks vera it made my heart sing. he is naturual with children so caring and genuine i would think his children just love their father to bits

  40. [If we take away the Morgan pro-Labor bias of 5% we end up with:]
    When someone can supply proof of this I will believe it.
    It’s like me saying “if you take off the 3% bias Newspoll has for the opposition we end up with:” and I’m sure whoever posted this BS (I assume HTT) would object.

  42. [If we apply a random factor we get Labor 90% Coalition 10%. Wow. That’s awesome
    WHAT DOES THAT MEAN]

    It means that hurting truth (“drinky drinky motion”) applies random factors to the morgan poll to achieve a result more of his liking. I was being facetious by saying if I apply another random factor I can produce an amazing result as well.
    i.e. making a point through exaggeration. That’s what it means.
    You just can’t take numbers off or add numbers onto polls and expect them to be meaningful.

  43. [If we apply a random factor we get Labor 90% Coalition 10%. Wow. That’s awesome
    WHAT DOES THAT MEAN]

    My say, that was tongue in cheek. Just as TTH substracts 5% at random from the Morgan poll, you can add say 45% to the poll for Labor and subtract a similar amount from the Coalition

  44. From the Berk:

    latikambourke

    Going on @6PR… 20 minutes ago via Echofon

    My response:

    frankscan65

    @latikambourke Sucking up to Sooky Sattler for a mutual penile massaging sedssion I see. less than 5 seconds ago via web in reply to latikambourke

  45. Diogenes,
    Having sojourned in Adelaide several times, I reckon it’s the best kept secret in Australia. If I lived there, I’d want it to stay a secret and not be “rooned” by massive hordes of East Australians moving there.

    Tasmania is your place then if david is retuned that is.

  50. Scarpat@98

    Frank, does he know how to spell hypocrisy? He is giving crocodile tears a bad name.

    My Reply to that Tweet:

    frankscan65

    @GreensMPs Typical Hypoocrisy from the Man who DEMANDED Garrat’s Scalp and are now crying croccodile Tears cos you got your way. Dickheads less than 5 seconds ago via web in reply to GreensMPs

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