Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted entirely over last weekend, has Labor’s lead at 56.5-43.5, down from 57.5-42.5 the week before and back where it was a fortnight earlier. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 45 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 37.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 9 per cent.

UPDATE (28/2): Sydney’s Sun Herald newspaper has published a Taverner poll of 609 NSW voters with a remarkable headline figure of 50-50 on two-party preferred. However, Labor’s primary vote lead of 42 per cent to 39 per cent makes clear this figure is askew. Clearly Taverner have derived it by asking minor supporters where their preferences will go, which from the small sample of such respondents (about 115) has produced a non-credible flow of 58-42 to the Coalition. Using the more reliable method of extrapolating the preference flow from the last election (62-38 to Labor) produces an entirely plausible two-party split of 54-46 to Labor, representing no change on the 2007 election result (53.7-46.3).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,863 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

Comments Page 38 of 38
1 37 38
  1. [Also below statement makes it sound like he thinks reform of the hospital system is too hard.]

    Vera: watching his response to the national curriculum launch, that was exactly the reaction I had: no ideas, just oppose, oppose, oppose becasue they have no alternative suggestions. In fact he went to what seemed to me the low hanging fruit of race baiting by targetting the aboriginal stuff. Nasty.

  2. [LL: “Newspoll has Tony Abbott and the Coalition gaining ground” ]

    Lady Janet gave the Board Room carpet a particularly deep hoovering before she left.

  3. It seems by Abbott’s comments and attitude that he has neither the wit nor the courage to attempt major reform.

  4. Antony has crunched the numbers:


    Latest Newspoll in Australian reports Labor 52%, Coalition 48%. This is how it looks in seats 14 minutes ago via web Retweeted by you and 4 others

  5. When they show 52/48 on the news tomorrow people will have that 50/50 fresh in their minds and think labor have had a boost 😉

  6. Finally the Herald Sun site has got the article up:

    [PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd will move to seize control of hospital funding from the states in a provocative reform of the nation’s health system to be announced this week.

    The states no longer will be given federal money to run their public hospitals and could have their share of the GST clawed back if they refuse.

    Mr Rudd proposes to directly fund regional health authorities, who will be in charge of running public hospitals in their regions.

    The states will have one month to sign up to the plan crafted by Mr Rudd and Health Minister Nicola Roxon. If they refuse there will be a showdown after Easter between Canberra and the states.

    The Government has also decided to hold back key parts of its health package, with voter-friendly aspects dealing with preventative and primary care being kept for the May Budget and the election campaign.]

  7. [Abbott is becoming a Whinging Wendy, everytime he opens his mouth lately it is negative and he looks either sour or angry.]

    Vera – he’s not look ‘over the moon’ at the polling and 55-30 PPM means he’s not going anywhere really except with the Libs they lost after the election.

    Quite enjoyed Q&A and especially when the panel got stroppy with Jones for wanting to keep on with the insulation thing. Interesting panel with interesting comments about art and Peter Garrett showed what a strong bloke he is. Pyne was ….. Pyne!

    So is it middle class Greens who are swopping their vote to Libs or where else did the Green vote go.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 38 of 38
1 37 38