Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted entirely over last weekend, has Labor’s lead at 56.5-43.5, down from 57.5-42.5 the week before and back where it was a fortnight earlier. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 45 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 37.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 9 per cent.

UPDATE (28/2): Sydney’s Sun Herald newspaper has published a Taverner poll of 609 NSW voters with a remarkable headline figure of 50-50 on two-party preferred. However, Labor’s primary vote lead of 42 per cent to 39 per cent makes clear this figure is askew. Clearly Taverner have derived it by asking minor supporters where their preferences will go, which from the small sample of such respondents (about 115) has produced a non-credible flow of 58-42 to the Coalition. Using the more reliable method of extrapolating the preference flow from the last election (62-38 to Labor) produces an entirely plausible two-party split of 54-46 to Labor, representing no change on the 2007 election result (53.7-46.3).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,863 thoughts on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. For the record, Galileo was a Christian, and Luther and Calvin, two of the founders of Protestantism both prefered his views to those of Copernicus.

    LOL! And Newton believed he could talk to dead people and he believed he could turn lead into gold (alchemy).

    That didn’t stop him from devising (along with others) calculus, or figuring out basic laws of motion.

  5. He is the manager of the Opposition’s business in the House. Which is quite senior.

    Pyne has a usual spot on Adelaide 891, 10 AM on Monday’s (but not at the moment due to the election) a couple of weeks ago he kept on repeating “I’m the fourth highest ranking Liberal in the House!)

  6. Cuppa: And the biggest Liberal hypocrite is Abbott who has spent his entire career cloistered away in insitutions: academic, religious and now political, save for 3 years as a journo.

  7. Anyone notice that Shanahan has said “virtually no change” in 2PP instead of trumpetting the 1 % shift to the coalition. Maybe Aristotle has gotten to him!

  10. There’s something funny going on with the Green vote. They go down lab and Lib stay the same yet Lib 2PP up 1 Lab down1
    Similar with essential earlier.

  12. DB

    I think the Bible is not a bad historical work set in the context of its time. But the total lack of humour from one end to another demonstrates a truly high degree of self-discipline on the part of the authors, or of an amazing editing job, whatever.

  14. Boerwar,

    I’d say they’ve been briefed.

    Interesting the story went to two relatively unknown journos. The Press Gallery doyens can reap the rewards of their swingeing critiques.

  16. Pyne has a usual spot on Adelaide 891, 10 AM on Monday’s

    Do they have a corresponding spot for someone from the government?

  17. So how will the ABC spin Newpoll as a good result for Abbott? I’m sure they’ll find a way.

    I’m thinking they might give the poll a wide berth.

  18. But maybe living in the age of irony and of the absurd I am being a bit anachronistic in expecting the bible to have at least one joke in it somewhere.

  19. I think the Bible is not a bad historical work set in the context of its time.

    Really? Even though it is full of internal contradictions? It is as if it was written by dozens of different people who didn’t confer with each other to get their story straight.

  22. So how will the ABC spin Newpoll as a good result for Abbott? I’m sure they’ll find a way.

    Maybe they’ll say it’s a rogue poll.

  23. The problem for those in the media that made a big deal of the 50/50 ANY reporting of this would have to account for a move to the government

  25. Shows@1786

    Another one

    Karadzic calls war ‘just and holy’: Ex-Bosnian Serb leader defends his actions as genocide trial resumes in The Hague. http://aje.me/aVarDt

    He told that court that the Bosnian Serbs had defended themselves against Islamic fundamentalists who had started the war in Bosnia to lay claim to the entire country.

    “I will defend that nation of ours and their cause that is just and holy. We have a good case. We have good evidence and proof,” he said.

    Karadzic, dressed in a dark suit and tie, traced the origins of the 1992-95 war to the rejection by Bosnia’s Muslim leadership of any power-sharing proposal

    http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2010/03/20103194824561962.html

  26. But maybe living in the age of irony and of the absurd I am being a bit anachronistic in expecting the bible to have at least one joke in it somewhere.

    Unless the bible is the joke itself.

  27. #1812, cuppa,
    ‘Do they have a corresponding spot for someone from the government?’
    Probably not. That wouldn’t be ‘Fair and Balanced’ 😉

  29. Basically no movement. Even Shanahanahanahan said so.

    Yes, but one gets the feeling he said that so he can now claim Rudd is out of touch… “Wrong on insulation, wrong on Newspoll”.

  30. ‘Do they have a corresponding spot for someone from the government?’
    Probably not. That wouldn’t be ‘Fair and Balanced’

    He is on with Chris Schat a former Labor senator who gives him heaps.

  32. Mumble says preferred P.M. PM 55 to 30.

    Oh dear, time to splash and flash out the red budgies again for Abbott

  33. I share your cynicism, C@tmomma. “Fair and balanced” seems to mean giving the Coalition all the free kicks they could ask for.

  34. The problem for those in the media that made a big deal of the 50/50 ANY reporting of this would have to account for a move to the government

    Yes, the triumphalism over the 50/50 poll looks awfully silly now. Remember it was mentioned in *all* MSM outlets.

  36. Rudd’s “where going to take a whacking in the polls” has been done so many times before, and has usually been followed by a RISE in the polls.

  37. Mumble says preferred P.M. PM 55 to 30.

    Isn’t that a slide in Abbott’s PPM?
    Isn’t it an improvement in Rudd’s PPM?

  39. Yep, that is my judgement. Not bad for its time.

    I’ll take Thucydides’ The History of the Peloponnesian War, which is still studied in International Relations classes. His history doesn’t rely on supernatural explanations (which of course was very rare at the time).

  41. Abbott is becoming a Whinging Wendy, everytime he opens his mouth lately it is negative and he looks either sour or angry.
    Big turn off I reckon. Totally opposite to how the media tried to portray him. Surfer dude, knockabout larrikan etc
    Also below statement makes it sound like he thinks reform of the hospital system is too hard. Loser!

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said Mr Rudd was trying to shift attention away from the roof insulation fiasco.

    “Hospital reform is too important to become a smokescreen for failure,” Mr Abbott said.

    He said when the Government mismanaged the $2.5 billion insulation program “you’ve got to question the ability of that government to deliver complex reform and the most complex reform of all is reform of the public hospital system”.

    from GG’s link
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/prime-minister-kevin-rudd-to-seize-control-of-hospital-funding-from-states/story-0-1225835817746

  44. Except for one in a place we now know as Townsville. In fact, the term ‘castaway’ was not used in this case, it was ‘throwaway’.

    Actually as Captain Cook reached Townsville, and Magnetic Island his compass started spinning incontrollably.

    Hence why Magnetic Island got it’s name. There has never been any proof however of Magnetic Island being “magnetic” however, and was most likely due to a faulty compass.

  47. Isn’t that a slide in Abbott’s PPM?
    Isn’t it an improvement in Rudd’s PPM?

    From memory it was 55-27 last Newspoll time

  49. Yes its a 3% improvement in PPM for Abbott, Surprised that Shanahan hasnt run with it, and LL spinning harder than Shanahan

  50. Magnetic Island his compass started spinning incontrollably.

    Can you explain what happens when a compass spins “incontrollably”?

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