Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted entirely over last weekend, has Labor’s lead at 56.5-43.5, down from 57.5-42.5 the week before and back where it was a fortnight earlier. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 45 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 37.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 9 per cent.

UPDATE (28/2): Sydney’s Sun Herald newspaper has published a Taverner poll of 609 NSW voters with a remarkable headline figure of 50-50 on two-party preferred. However, Labor’s primary vote lead of 42 per cent to 39 per cent makes clear this figure is askew. Clearly Taverner have derived it by asking minor supporters where their preferences will go, which from the small sample of such respondents (about 115) has produced a non-credible flow of 58-42 to the Coalition. Using the more reliable method of extrapolating the preference flow from the last election (62-38 to Labor) produces an entirely plausible two-party split of 54-46 to Labor, representing no change on the 2007 election result (53.7-46.3).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,863 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. [Re Garratt move – VERY smart, the poor fibs won’t know what hit them with Combet in charge – though I predict the Libs will go Union Boss- BOO anti Business.]

    As an ex-union man and labour historian, Mr Combet has spent decades watching the lousy Liberals vilify and try to destroy the organisations he obviously loves. I’m thinking he will have plenty of fire in the belly to take on those same wreckers on the floor of Parliament.

  2. [@GreensMPs Typical Hypoocrisy from the Man who DEMANDED Garrat’s Scalp and are now crying croccodile Tears cos you got your way. Dickheads less than 5 seconds ago via web in reply to GreensMPs]

    Frank, don’t hold back. 😀

  3. I’m not going to join the ‘Smart Move’ chorus on this. If GB was right above, this issue had just about run out of puff

    Rudd spent the last two weeks defending Garrett…now he cuts him loose and gives the whole debacle another round in the papers tomorrow

    Not a good look…the opp will be out there highlighting Rudd’s flip flop.

  4. [Rudd spent the last two weeks defending Garrett…now he cuts him loose and gives the whole debacle another round in the papers tomorrow]

    Squiggle – there is a new scheme on the way, Garrett would be crucified if it produced a smelly fart in a roof.

    Combet can attack the OH&S failings of Insulation Companies – I note one is appearing in a Parramatta court next week, over a fire.

    This is the next phase of media “interest” .

  5. Abbott wasn’t looking too happy on 9 news (think it was) he sookily said, “garrett still has same title and pay for less work”

    Almost exactly what i said earlier. I bet he’s had Julie reading PB and doing some more copy-catting 😉

  6. Tony Abbott – Peter Garrett’s demotion on the horribly botched home insulation program

    And when the coroners’ reports come out?

  7. [Rudd spent the last two weeks defending Garrett…now he cuts him loose and gives the whole debacle another round in the papers tomorrow

    Not a good look…the opp will be out there highlighting Rudd’s flip flop.]

    Mr S, as they say, going forward, a hard-hitter and a fresh face is required in the position. Combet should provide that.

  8. Tom Hawkins # 74

    Shanahan knows that the issue will cool from here on thanks to today’s change. He knows that Combet will be receive more air time than Garrett and that will be a plus for the government. Trying to disguise his fears with this sort of wacky analysis is laughable.

    Shanahan knows the big bonus he’ll receive if the Liberals win in 2010 has all but disappeared.

    As old sayings go: Be careful what you wish for (anon)
    “Take what you want and pay for it,” says the Devil (Russian)

  9. Ru

    just back , thanks for add info Some strange negotiatin done , am ex banana bender so should not be suprised See why non registraton of there own Party for Nats is a problam

  10. I’m a bit perturbed to see all the posters saying what a good idea it was dump Garrett.

    The same people were telling us it had all blown over.

    They also told us he had done nothing wrong.

    They also told us there was no problem with the way the Environment Dept implemented the scheme.

    They also told us that people who disagreed with them were Liberal hacks consumed with hatred of the Labor Party.

    I can only conclude that Kevin Rudd is a Liberal hack who is consumed with hatred of the Labor Party.

    Either that or they were wRONg.

  11. [Finns – I don’t know about this other you I like the old Finns just fine.]

    From previous thread:

    Vera, yes. he is a nasty piece of shiRt.

  12. Improvements in the monitoring of safety in the insulation program will dovetail with Rights At Work and the basic entitlement of having a union official represent you in the workplace. That will be a loss for the right wingers.

    The risks of a return to Workchoices will now take centre stage in parliament. The opposition will direct IR questions to Gillard but many of the Dorothy Dixers will be directed at Combet.

    This is a good day for the government.

  13. [Either that or they were wRONg.]

    Diog, it will give Garrett more time to write great song, like iDIOt, iDIOt, iDIOt, as an answer to that Abba’s classic: Money, Money, Money.

  14. wasn’t looking too happy on 9 news (think it was) he sookily said, “garrett still has same title and pay for less work” what post was that vera

  15. [I’m a bit perturbed to see all the posters saying what a good idea it was dump Garrett.]

    Don’t forget that they’re only sharing the workload more appropriately 😉

  16. Diogenes
    Posted Friday, February 26, 2010 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

    “They also told us there was no problem with the way the Environment Dept implemented the scheme.”

    This is th false one you slipped in to build your strawman argument
    instead of your/its time actual inuendos refering to th 4 deaths following Abbott theme
    Its all in th mirrors , you keep looking at

  17. vera #108

    Abbott wasn’t looking too happy on 9 news (think it was) he sookily said, “garrett still has same title and pay for less work”

    Thanks for the hint, vera; I’d have missed it otherwise.

    Oh wasn’t he seriously pissed off! A man tries to get rid of the minister who brings all those fans to the ALP, and 😳 he ends up with 😯 Greg Combet!! 😯

    😆 😆 😆

  18. [It’s funny but Rudd agreed with me and disagreed with you lot in the end.]

    Who would agree with you? 🙂

    The issue is that “the environment” is now an economic priority as well as an ecological one. Wong and Combet get the economic bits, Garrett gets the furry animals bit.

    Rudd’s error was giving an economic policy to the gecko dept. 😉

  19. Potentially Rudd has made a very clever tactical move and turned a disaster into a positive by systematically addressing all the grievances around the insultation issue on his own terms, rather than being seen to buckle to Abbot and co. In the process he’s also managed to inplement a minor cabinet reshuffle, introduce new blood and strengthen his ministerial fire power – cant see the downside myself.

  20. I’ve got another question. Why did Rudd have to get the GG’s permission to switch the names and duties of the Ministries? Is there something in the Constitution or is it a courtesy thing?

  21. [Still Coonan wasnt much better to be honest more like invisible at least Barnyard is visible. Remember what Oscar Wilde said…]
    Better to keep one’s mouth shut and be thought a fool rather than open it and remove all doubt ?

  22. [In the process he’s also managed to inplement a minor cabinet reshuffle]

    Greg Combet is not a Cabinet Minister. I don’t think he will be under the redistribution either.

  23. [Rudd’s error was giving an economic policy to the gecko dept.]

    Ru, that was Abbott’s genius – giving Finance to a mathematical wizard. 😳

  24. [Hem we have factions now but we try to downplay their significance.
    This way we’d have everyone anti-Labor batting on the same team!]
    Mad Monk’s team or Turbull’s team?

  25. Itep – point noted. But, as others have noted, he will still be elevated to a much more prominent role in countering the hun in the forthcoming election campaign.

  26. ltep

    [The GG signs off on the administrative arrangements which distribute execution of legislation and programmes amongst the departments and ministers.]

    Has the GG ever refused to sign off?

  27. [Why is it always referred to as the gecko dept?]

    ‘Cause when Pete was supposed to be at a technical meeting over batty stuff, he had his pic taken with a rare gecko.

  28. Insulsaga really has shown Australian politics at its worst:

    Kevin Rudd: 8/10 for political expediency. He does emerge with some credit.

    Tony Abbott: 10/10 for sleaze.

    Main Stream Mice: 9/10 for bias, misreporting and failure to do their homework. I’m minded of two quotations: “I am Sir Oracle, and when I ope my lips let no dog bark!” (Shakespeare) and “I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the ending” (Revelations)

    So sad.

  29. [This is th false one you slipped in to build your strawman argument
    instead of your/its time actual inuendos refering to th 4 deaths following Abbott theme]
    Ron, show us what I said about the 4 deaths associated with insulation, if you’ve got the guts.

  30. streetcred, that’s all well and good, and I must say, I’m in two minds about the Garret/Combet manouvre. Certainly, I like Combet getting more of a profile and action, and it certainly puts Rudd front and centre in terms of addressing the fallout in taking action, but it doesn’t sit well with describing Garret as a first class minister, then demoting him. I’m still very cranky about the government not saying from the outset that everyone should wait till the outcome of the coronial investigations, at least somewhere along the way.

  31. [Combet’s new position is Assistant Minister, Climate Change and Energy Position.]

    with a significant promotion in store if he gets this one sorted out.

  32. Gary Bruce

    Credit where credit is due. Your party loyalist super-spin gems after Garrett’s demotion must figure in the finals of the PB “Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Award” this year. Even the former Iraqi Information Minister himself rarely matched on behalf of his masters proud denialism as triumphant as this:

    “It sounds to me like a sharing of the load.”
    And

    “By still being in cabinet doesn’t that show he has done nothing wrong?”

    Absolute crackers, both of them. I can’t see anyone else coming close.

  33. [I’m still very cranky about the government not saying from the outset that everyone should wait till the outcome of the coronial investigations, at least somewhere along the way.]

    Their focus group testing probably told them their best option was to be seen to be accepting responsibility.

  34. Itep, that’s very cynical. Seriously, I understand that governments and political parties will operate in their best interest, as they see it, but it is nevertheless true that Abbott and the MSM have been rabbiting on about the deaths in the absence of the outcome of proper process. This is not good for our polity under any government.

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