Morgan: 57-43

Roy Morgan has come through with the first poll of this election year, and it’s a peculiar beast combining face-to-face results from last weekend and the distant weekend before Christmas (December 19/20). Labor’s primary vote is down 3.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Coalition’s is up 1.5 per cent to 37 per cent, with the Greens up two to 10 per cent. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead is down from 59-41 to 57-43.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,640 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

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  1. Looks like Abbott’s speech will ignore the need for world action and an ETS so he can duck the issue
    And it has only been the last 2 years that the Murray has been in trouble don’t ya know?
    [“Over the last two years Murray-Darling water management has been neglected, the perennial struggle against feral animals and noxious weeds has been neglected.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudd-should-focus-on-environment-abbott-20100114-m8ql.html

  2. Here is one story in the Oz that made me think (I don’t usually read it!)
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/student-demand-exceeds-spots-at-universities/story-e6frgcjx-1225819000079

    1 in 5 Uni applicants in Qld have missed out on a place. I wondered, how much od they suggest them to consider applying interstate these days? If ther eis a surplus demand for places in Qld, adn surplus places in SA or Vic, why not encourage young people to move state to go to Uni? It is the norm in the USA, and might be a good (maturing) experience.

  5. Socrates
    I reckon Abbott’s statements are all simplistic to appeal to who he thinks are the average joe without too much brainpower to be able to think for themselves.
    Just look at his statement suggesting that it has only been since Rudd took power that the Murray is in trouble. People just aren’t so thick to fall for that but Abbott seems to feel they are.

    Advisors? I don’t know, I’d imagine he’d be on the phone to Howard every day for instructions.

  6. [Advisors? I don’t know, I’d imagine he’d be on the phone to Howard every day for instructions.]

    Nothing that an FOI request for Howie’s phone records won’t fix 🙂

  9. Dead right, vera@1355. Abbot needs lots of wriggle room for his style of political fighting; he doesn’t have much at the moment, and the Govt will make sure it stays that way.

    Advisors? I don’t know, I’d imagine he’d be on the phone to Howard every day for instructions.

    I’d love to know what JH’s standing really is these days, in the eyes of senior Liberals. What do they privately think of his “political genius” now?

  11. Finns@1332:

    [A militant Hindu group in Mumbai with a history of political violence says it will not let Australian cricketers play in the state of Maharashtra until there is an end to attacks on Indians in Australia.]

    Not a problem, don’t send the cricketers there. They are the cricket tragics, the Aussies can play elsewhere.

  12. Not a problem, don’t send the cricketers there. They are the cricket tragics, the Aussies can play elsewhere.

    I’m with you, don, but certain Aussie cricketers (along with their wives and managers) might not share those steel nerves…

  15. Those radical Indians should be wary of Karma, it might bite them on the bum when it comes time for the Commonwealth Games.
    Weren’t the Poms allready showing concern for their atheletes safety?

  16. You’re right, Vera (1347). It’s probably a forlorn hope, that the media will take them to task for their lies. Still, these guys are getting their vox bubbles on the media dozens of times every day, so there’s ample opportunity – and then some – for the media to put the hard questions to them … if they so choose.

    I recall with some anger the very easy ride that Chris Uhlmann gave Abbott last week on the 7.30 Report. He let Abbott spout complete nonsense about the New Zealand economy being comparable to Australia’s in its survival of the GFC, and didn’t challenge him on a word of it.

    Yet it was quite different the following night when Uhlmann had as “guest” Peter Garrett. He hardly let the bloke get a sentence in without semantic challenges and attempted ‘gotchas’.

    Very poor form I thought (considering his effort of the preceding night), but at least he’s made his position clear to me now.

  17. Cuppa
    Even lightweight shows like that 7pm one on 10 seem to be all out anti govt. I was changing chanells the other night and the mentiion of the Centur caught my attention so i tuned in for a minute.
    The panell were saying how the money had only become available recently for the exploration to go ahead but there was no mention that it was the fed and Qld govts that put up the funds.
    The only mention of the govt was by (wait for it!) Steve Price Lib shock jock, who said the problem now is that the govt better make damn sure they protect the war graves of Sydney and Centur, inferring that they wouldn’t

  26. Rudd described the Iraq War as “the greatest foreign policy mistake of the generation” or similar.

    Psephos was a bit more circumspect about the Iraq War from memory. 😉

  27. [Jobless rate drops to 5.5%
    11:59am | A hike in interest rates is more likely with more people in employment]
    So we are all hoping that our kids/neighbours/friends remain jobless to keep our mortgages at record lows. Yeah, right.

  29. Garreth has got an award
    [Former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans has won an international award for his work on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.

    He has been given the Roosevelt Institute’s Freedom from Fear award for his contribution to the international commission on the issue and work on responding to atrocities and genocide.

    Mr Evans says the award is a great honour.

    “Recipients of it in the past have included people like Nelson Mandela and Kofi Annan, so it is a great honour,” he said.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/14/2792419.htm?section=justin

  30. Incidentally, where is Psephos?

    Holiday?

    Getting that sex change he always wanted (Psephina)?

    Painting his house?

    Painting someone else’s house?

    I’ve missed his erudite commentary.

  32. [Gareth Evans has won an international award for his work on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament]
    The award would be mostly for Evans’ consummate skills in disarming the Democrats by porking their leader to defection. 😆

  33. [Incidentally, where is Psephos?

    Holiday?]

    Isreal.

    From his Facebook Status:

    [Psephos* has done the Three Religions in One Day Tour: the Dome of Rock (Muslim), the Western Wall (Jewish) and the Holy Sepulchre (Christian). As an atheist I can’t judge their relative merits as religions, but the Muslims have the best architecture and the Jews have the best hats.
    13 hours ago · ]

    * Out of Respect I haven’t used his Facebook name, but regular PB’s will know it 🙂

  36. Re Abbott’s preliminary points on the environment, in prep for his environment speech for the Sydney Institute tonight:

    1. Funding for the National Reserve System Program and for the Indigenous Protected Areas Program was increased under the Rudd Government. (Both were initiated under Howard.) Both have had huge impacts on building Australia’s national reserve system.

    2. Expenditure for water buybacks has been extensive under the Rudd Government. The Coalition Government was wary of this sort of investment because the Nationals hated it. Despite the great Christmas inland floods footage which would have fooled lots of people about the irrigation water picture, parts of the MDB are still in a 13 year drought and most of the reservoirs are still very, very low. The environmental impact of these expenditures should kick in once the rainfall steadies a bit, if it ever does, I suppose. Also unheralded, lots of irrigators are leaving the system, supported by governments to do so. Some of the fed/state stuff on the MDB are still a mess but Howard had longer and did less than Rudd.

    3. Abbott’s claim that actions on these sorts of fronts are what we should get into because Australia can’t do anything along about climate change is utter crap. The first thing is that premise that we are acting alone is utterly false. Lots of other countries are doing lots of CC things – and some of them are doing much, much more than Australia. Secondly if we don’t fix cc, then it will not matter what we do for nature conservation. I expect that a lot of it will go and a lot of the work we do to protect it would be a complete waste of effort if CC is not fixed.
    4. Administrative changes to the old Natural Heritage-type local project funding and a greater focus on more strategic funding is (I have been told by people who used to such on the ground projects) creating a fair bit of unhappiness. There is some disgruntlement. How much I do not know.

    5. Another concrete outcome under the Rudd Government is, I believe, the closure of the Weeds CRC. (Not sure about that). Given the cost of weeds to agriculture and to the environment, this did not seem to me to be a good idea.)

    6. I believe the coalition has called for a huge camel cull. The Rudd Government has, I understand, already allocated enough money to knock of most of the feral camels.

    All in all, if the Abbott speech does work along the above lines then an overarching prelim assessment would be that he is trying to distract from doing something really serious on CC. His recent forays into whales and wild rivers will not add to the credibility he gained from one eightying the ETS, on his stating that warming has stopped, and on his avowal that climate change is crap.

    I am a bit mystified why he is tackling environment is such a front and centre way.

    I look forward to Abbott’s speech.

  38. Boerwar
    I don’t suppose the government would be waiting like a coiled spring at all, would it? Ready to set Garnaut, the Treasury, Lord Stern and any other expert they can lay their hands on to ridicule Abbott’s policy, which is bound to be more lame than a culled camel?

  39. vera

    Actually it cost SA taxpayers $400K to get Armstrong out to say that.

    At least he called Rann “Ranny”, unlike McEnroe who referred to him as “Ranndy”.

  40. Gusface and JV

    It mystifies me a bit.

    Unless I have seriously misread Abbott’s current status as environmentally concerned leader of the Opposition, or unless he comes out with a string of left field environment policies and programs, it does looks as if he is leading with his jaw.

    Perhaps we will see a transubstantiation tonight?

  42. Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd here is Abbot’s Plan according to the OO:

    [australian

    Abbott plans Murray-Darling takeover: TONY Abbott will tonight unveil his direct action plan for the environment, … http://bit.ly/5yfl84 7 minutes ago from twitterfeed ]

  44. I think that Abbott is going to try to go to the election on State issues. Wild Rivers, SA-Vic on water, land clearing, etc.

    He cannot talk about Federal issues because he is screwed on every one. So he will run 150 separate elections based on local/state issues.

  46. [I think that Abbott is going to try to go to the election on State issues. Wild Rivers, SA-Vic on water, land clearing, etc.

    He cannot talk about Federal issues because he is screwed on every one. So he will run 150 separate elections based on local/state issues]

    You forgot “Hoons” – EVERY Lib Candidate in 2007 was going on about it in their Election Material – though after Rob Johnston’s effort, Doctors in Lamborginis will be exempt 🙂

  49. [If the economy is sooo good, how come people keep getting sacked.]

    If the economy is sooo bad, how come people keep getting hired.

  50. Rua went:

    [I think that Abbott is going to try to go to the election on State issues. Wild Rivers, SA-Vic on water, land clearing, etc.

    He cannot talk about Federal issues because he is screwed on every one. So he will run 150 separate elections based on local/state issues.]

    And lose message traction in about 135 of them.

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