Morgan: 57-43

Roy Morgan has come through with the first poll of this election year, and it’s a peculiar beast combining face-to-face results from last weekend and the distant weekend before Christmas (December 19/20). Labor’s primary vote is down 3.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Coalition’s is up 1.5 per cent to 37 per cent, with the Greens up two to 10 per cent. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead is down from 59-41 to 57-43.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,640 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

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  1. Cuppa
    Their ABC might be doing more harm than good with the overexposure of everything Liberal.
    There is such a thing as overkill, tends to turn folks off πŸ˜‰

    Notice that SBS takes a lot of their political coverage direct from Skynews. Had a lesser Lib (don’t recall his name) on the other night with the Sky logo on the screen.

  2. Typical women are we, Vera. Always thinking!! says she, ducking for cover.

    Have you read some of the terrific stuff by the guys this am on water. They are more knowledgeable than the MSM. Can’t work out why Murdoch thinks his way of doing things is superior.

  3. Vera@1591:

    [Kev’s been having a nice break known the country is in Julia’s safe hands :D]

    Those criticising Kev’s bushwalking gear earlier should have a look at that photo.

    He’s got a decent warm coat, (it is raining more often than not on Cradle, and snow can fall any time of the year), he’s got joggers on (perfectly adequate for the whole of the Overland Track, which is what I wear all the time. Much better than boots except for deep mud, far better grip on dry or wet rock). I once walked it with a German backpacker who wore socks and sandals the entire way, through mud and water and dry going. And he’s got a good hat – the UV is fierce on the Overland Track, and the Cradle end is the highest.

    But the locals think they invented bushwalking (as do the Kiwis, but they call it tramping, they can’t even get the term right!) and Kev would have copped flak from Tassie bushwalkers who think that you can’t go down to the supermarket in anything less than heavy boots.

  4. yes BH all that rice and cotton growing and MDB info is terrific stuff

    The Community Cabinet meetings start up again next week
    [The Prime Minister, the Hon Kevin Rudd MP, advises there will be a Community Cabinet meeting at Norwood Morialta High School, Magill, Adelaide on Wednesday 20 January 2010.]

  5. [Kev would have copped flak from Tassie bushwalkers who think that you can’t go down to the supermarket in anything less than heavy boots.]
    lol Don, those Tasmanians are a different breed πŸ™‚

  6. Cuppa @1582
    Have you noticed how often in those soft spots on their ABC that Abbott manages to get a plug in for his book?

  7. Yes, I have Polyquats. Forget which ABC network it was on, but Abbott was asked (paraphrasing), “then what are your policies?” He circumlocuted for a moment, then said (paraphrasing), “if you want to find out, it’s all in my book”. And the, ahem, journalist, left it at that.

    It’s pretty blatant bias isn’t it?

  8. Polyq & Cuppa – send an email and ask why they allow advertising on the ABC.

    Of course, it’s one big advertisement for the OO with all the commentators and pieces they use from there. If they don’t take their leads from the OO its Skynoos on radio, telly and newsonline.

    Perhaps the Govt. should tell them to start using their own journos to fossick out info. and FACT.

  9. Preferred Prime Minister

    Morgan 15 January

    Newspoll 07 December

    Newspoll 30 November

    Newspoll 23 November

  10. Possum
    [Folks, as per the regular request – preview function for posts coming soon.]
    Excellent. Is this the one with the inbuilt hack filter – an automatic function that translates the usual turgid party message into interesting original thoughts of intellectual and literary merit with an overlay of gentle humour? πŸ˜†

  11. [Excellent. Is this the one with the inbuilt hack filter … ]

    jv are you advocating a PB internet filter? Conroy would be proud of you. πŸ˜›

  12. i have a friend who met mr rudd while walking and said the people chated happily to him and they all had a great afternoon and how the youngesters chatted and ask questions.
    People loved seeing him and where up set when others heard that had not been on the same track.
    He was very popular he and his lovley family. good on him for holidaying in my home state. the treasure and the jewel of aus.
    and guess what the weather was perfect.

  13. ruawake
    [jv are you advocating a PB internet filter?]
    well, I know I am opposed to censorship, but when something on the net is truly offensive, action must be taken. πŸ˜†
    Conroy gives us the lead on what to do. We can set up a review committee (leave it to me – Possum and Diogenes can be two members to start with). We’ll make a secret list of the offensive (to us) hackery that will be the subject of literary ‘tweaking’ via the filter. But of course, I have to get my instructions from the Non-Hack Lobby Group before I can do anything. it was their idea, not mine. πŸ˜†

  14. So I guess the general consensus is that Abbott’s eco policy agenda ranks alongside with Turnbull’s stimulus “policy” or the Libs “boat” policy. In that it is all fluff, no ideas, in fact a days worth of chip wrappings.

    Abbott still has the two Liberal Parties problem, he may think he can be an elephant sliding down a razor blade using his stones as brakes, but the end result is painful, can he unite the opposing factions? – I doubt it.

  15. dear poss i am always loosing my place in the blogs on the side could you please put a date. now i cannot find todays morgan. I like to read and re read these polls
    it makes my day.there are so many different subjects at the moment.
    some one may be able to tell what page its on .

  16. SA Greens Senator “oz should boycott china” Hanson Young , therefor is a proven fool so her talkin about th MRB can not be listend to at all

    now soputh australians here continue with MRB red herrings about telling NSW/Q’ld farmers what they should grow


    why do South Australians not advocote tclosing down th water hungery SA Riverland irigaton farms now?

    why do South australians NOT tell us what % of water and th gigee lites would get evorporatd from NSW rivers by th time it got to th Cooroong ?

    why do Southaustralians pretend there is no undr land water basin in Q’ld/NSW where farms etc get water from ?

    why do south australians tell us th % of MRB river water & gigee liters used for farming FROM th river itself , and not from under ground ?

    why do South australians given drought & CC , advorcate suporting THERE SA water intensive farming in SA ilogicaly so distant from th MRB water sourse ?

    why do South australians think water runing IN Q’ld and NSW somehow for South australians agric use , and not for Q’ld/NSW agric use where th river water actualy ar ?

    why do South australians not understand undr th constitutoin th States wheres th Rivers water run is THERE business to run/manage as Q’ld /NSW think fit ?

    POint is south australians wont fase these abov questons , and rely on Mr X and Geeen Senator Hanson youngs crazy phony slutons & State bashin , its all there fault

    Point is south australians ar carping instead of realising not enuf water falls in SA itself , maybe Soth australia should be moved , and there is a CC itself causing plus normal drought making th MRB at a low 20% water storeage levels , so not enuf water anyway

    AND Point is that Q’ld/NSW (plus Vic) ar being very generous to South australians given there crapy carping false arguments , to actualy co operativly join th MRB authority to help south australians and practicly for all oz try improve th MRB longer terms with caps on consumpton etc

    SA should happly embrase th MRB authority , contribut to th MRB authority instwead of carpin and undermining it , a historic co op efort by Q’ld NSW plus Vic to fix th MRB in time , not todays asp roblam took a long time to grow and take long tome to fix , if CC does not get it altogethr

  17. Socrates #1580

    Further to 1578, I think the vast majority of cotton farms are owned by wealthy whites.

    I think you missed the point. Small farming communities are inverted pyramids, the point of which is the owner/s – or the group/company owning – who rarely lives in the region – or, increasingly, even in the nation.

    *Layered above the point are service providers – local farm supply & maintenance businesses;
    * then local businesses (usually small local businesses & para/professionals) which/who service the service providers – butcher, baker, shop owners, doctor, hair-dresser, servo owner/manager etc as well as clubs (golf, bowls RSL);
    * then those (usually individuals) who service the butcher, baker, shops, servos etc etc – cleaners, shelf-stockers, those who work in snack bars, cafes, pubs, clubs.
    * The inverted “base” includes those supported by those employed.

    As the “points” close down or are bought out, with the land let revegetate, the inverted pyramids above them collapse. Farm businesses (usually local branches of big companies) pull out or close down; businesses go broke or close, proprietors lose their investments and employment goes with them. People with house mortgages can’t make payments, and can’t sell for enough to satisfy the banks as house prices crash. private & government services close – health, education, clubs, library, doctors etc – and para/ professionals leave. Those who stay survive on welfare.

    Ironically, many of these towns & their farm industries use GAB water Not that Greens exhibit any indication that they understand the difference between GAB & river water. Do they even know about the GAB and how its used?

    Two decades of drought have dried up the rivers, farm dams, state dams. Across inland Australia, that drought’s effects on local communities are similar to those above, but nowhere as devastating as they would be if cash-crops (cotton) & pastoral activities were shut down in the name of putting more water back in the rivers – almost all of which will be lost to seepage & evaporation!

    All towns in the Upper Darling’s catchment areas in Q & the top half of NSW have significant Aboriginal populations living on tribal lands (which often inclue towns). Most are semi-skilled or unskilled workers, although some are skilled workers. So, if farm industries go, their only real choice is whether or not to stay in “Country”, the latter with little or no hope of service provision or employment.

    All this destruction of ordinary people’s lives, livelihoods investment in homes and businesses – all so SA gets the Upper Darling’s water!

    And you see no ethical dilemma?

    but the owner is the top of a pyramid of local businesses & people who depend on it for a livelyhood – from the manager & accountant near the top, to those who clean local premises, collect garbage, have a part-time job in servos, pubs, cafes etc. Take away the top business

  18. Good Afternoon all!
    As Vera said earlier, the ABC have been falling all over themselves to pimp Abbott & the Liberals.
    According to “Their ABC”, the Greens support Abbott’s supposed “Environmental Revolution” – really? Maybe they should ask Sarah Hansen Young! πŸ™‚

  19. Oz Pol

    whilst your points on ethical & aboriginee use of land ar corect re MRB , your reply is TO a red herring MRB argument of what NSW/Q’ld farmers should grow

    rather than th reel issues raised by you zoom , me and othrs that th SA brigade & there 2 phony based Senators Green Young & independ Mr X ar unable to reealtic addres , its called States pride they’re reely hurting & fair enuf but there arguments do not stand logicaly

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