Courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble comes the first heavy duty opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era. The two-party vote shows little change, with Labor’s lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. However, it seems rounding might have smoothed the result out a little: the Coalition is up three points on the primary vote to 38 per cent (the Liberals on 34 per cent have swallowed a point from the Nationals) while Labor is steady on 43 per cent. No approval ratings on Abbott were sought, but his 60-23 deficit on preferred prime minister compares with 65-14 against for Turnbull last week and 63-22 a fortnight previous. The poll offers further evidence that the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey.
UPDATE: Essential Research: 58-42, unchanged on last week. 21 per cent of respondents say the Abbott ascendancy makes them more likely to vote Liberal; 33 per cent say less. Lots of questions on leadership perceptions, almost all of it more favourable to Rudd than Abbott.
I find it amazing the number of Liberal voices who are claiming we should ignore that the ‘massive tax’ the Opposition are now opposing was Coalition policy at the last election. To them, the thought that Howard lied to try to win an election is not disturbing or beyond belief at all. Does this mean we can’t believe whatever policy Abbott proposes to combat climate change now?
[I wonder how soon before the Young Liberals move to have Turnbull expelled from the party.]
And then move to expel Wilson “Mad Uncle” Tuckey for doing pretty well exactly the same thing.
[We’ll get to check out Captain Kenneally ]
Vera, a nice Rosaries for the Captain and Maria. Just hope it doesnt strangle her like it’s strangling Abbott.
[To them, the thought that Howard lied to try to win an election is not disturbing or beyond belief at all.]
And it wasn’t just Howard, it was Coalition policy, in fact Senator Wong pointed out that Howard and Mark Vaile were both on the cover of the policy document!
[Does this mean we can’t believe whatever policy Abbott proposes to combat climate change now?]
Well that would be a great line during the election campaign wouldn’t it? The Liberals were elected at the last election to pass an ETS but ultimately didn’t, why should anyone trust them to vote for whatever their new climate change policy turns out to be?
Channel nine news break says Abbott is closing in on Rudd. Technically I suppose he is but, really, where is the “but he has a long way to go”?
I cannot bear to watch Trigger Trioli these days. She is 80 trying to look 18.
Today’s events demonstrate that Abbott’s honeymoon (such as it is) is likely to be shorter than Michael Jackson’s.
[To them, the thought that Howard lied to try to win an election is not disturbing or beyond belief at all. Does this mean we can’t believe whatever policy Abbott proposes to combat climate change now?]
They love ‘Honest’ John almost to the point of idolatry. Monkey see, monkey do. To them, lying is an honourable act. Lieberals have a long legacy to uphold.
[Today’s events demonstrate that Abbott’s honeymoon (such as it is) is likely to be shorter than Michael Jackson’s.]
I think it all depends on how much propping up the MSM can give him
Finns
A vey pretty Rosary for the Captain.
Here’s one for the Monk. 👿
The media pumped up Turnbull’s tyres too, when he took over. It’s what they do. They want the Liberal gravy-train of government advertising billions back on track.
vera, you are too kind to Monky
[The media pumped up Turnbull’s tyres too, when he took over. It’s what they do. ]
They did the same for Rudd too, and in his case it had some merit because he took Labor from statistical ties to clear poll leads.
[can someone send Malcom an ALP membership for Chrissie please? thanks, Santa]
Not happy, Malcolm.
[The media pumped up Turnbull’s tyres too, when he took over. It’s what they do. ]
[They did the same for Rudd too, and in his case it had some merit because he took Labor from statistical ties to clear poll leads.]
They also cooperated with the Liberals in smearing him with beat-ups about the Scores strip-club visit, having coffee with Brian Burke, and even eating his own earwax, for goodness sake. OK, it didn’t do his poll standing any material harm (the contrary actually), but that’s not the point. The point is, they campaigned with the Liberals to tear him down as he was just stepping into the arena.
I couldn’t care less if the Libs rip themselves apart. The important thing is they’ve finally acted like an opposition and voted bad legislation down. Why should they have a policy, that’s the governments department. Bob Hawke didn’t have a policy in opposition. Neither did me too 07. So let’s see this government do something that actually works, because methinks we now have an opposition that will hold them to the task. This Government needs close scrutiny, it’s not so long ago that they were an unelectable rabble.
Abbott may have painted himself into a corner with his ETS stance, right from the very start of his leadership of the Libs!
His $50B+ current stance based on a 5% reduction from 2000, will look a bit sick if the Copenhagen Conference comes out with a 20% or 25% reduction figure.
That “could” mean basically a 200 to 250% increase figure on his $50B+ costing. ie $200B+ to $250B+ without the means to put it into action or link in with the rest of the developed world! ie with an ETS!
Abbott is basing his costing of $50+ as a dramatic reduction on Rudd’s estimated $120B cost of his ETS! Crikey! 😉
[The Coalition has committed to the same emissions reduction targets as the Government, which is a 5 to 25 per cent cut in 2000 levels depending on international commitments.
“I am confident that we can achieve, well and truly achieve, our mandatory targets for an enormous amount less than that,” Mr Abbott said.
Mr Abbott dumped Mr Turnbull’s climate change policy when he took over the leadership last week and voted down the Government’s emissions trading scheme.
The Coalition will reveal its new climate change policy in February, but Mr Abbott has already said will not include an emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2763621.htm?section=justin
The perception of Tony Abbott as a ‘religious nutter’ is restricted to a small minority of the electorate who wouldn’t vote for him, but if the Libs did ever gain the image of being a Christian conservative party it would be very electorally bad for them (even in the US this image has been bad for the Republicans) and Abbott knows this. On the ETS reminds me of Medicare, 1980s Libs opposed this but claimed to support broader access to health insurance but were never able to explain their convoluted schemes.
[They also cooperated with the Liberals in smearing him with beat-ups about the Scores strip-club visit, having coffee with Brian Burke,]
The scores issue probably helped Rudd by making some think he was more blokey.
And the Brian Burke story actually did more damage to the government because it meant Howard had to sack Senator Ian Capbell, who then resigned completely from parliament.
The ear wax thing was more trivial, but the MSM wouldn’t of jumped on it if it hadn’t been on YouTube.
Google has decided to move the piccodilos of Tiger from the Sports section to the Entertainment Section:
[The number of women connected to Tiger Woods could topple a dozen by week’s end, according to several sources familiar with Woods’ behavior during his frequent trips to Las Vegas.
Over the course of the weekend, Las Vegas-based Jamie Jungers, New Yorker Cori Rist and Florida-based Mindy Lawton have all been identified as having extramarital connections to Woods, bringing the total of named women up to six. According to British tabloids, Lawton might be Woods’ first mistress; the two met at a Perkins restaurant near Woods’ home where Lawton was a waitress, just two years after Woods married Elin Nordegren.]
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34305090/ns/entertainment-gossip/
I was just reading that 50% of the current US prison population is African-American. During segregation in the 50’s, it was only 30%.
I’d be interested to see what, if anything, has changed since the Referendum in Australia for the indigenous population.
[Does this mean we can’t believe whatever policy Abbott proposes to combat climate change now?]
Not only on climate change, but any other policy as well. Since they lied about that and they welched on the ETS deal with the government, what right do they have to be believed about anything? Howard used “Who do you trust to keep interest rates low?” (and they didn’t), so maybe Rudd can turn that around and ask simply “Who do you trust?” (on anything).
[Abbott is basing his costing of $50+ as a dramatic reduction on Rudd’s estimated $120B cost of his ETS! Crikey! ;-)]
Remember, the $120 billion figure for the ETS is how much money it will raise in 10 years. Over that period the Government will pay out more than $120 billion of compensation.
[The scores issue probably helped Rudd by making some think he was more blokey.
And the Brian Burke story actually did more damage to the government because it meant Howard had to sack Senator Ian Capbell, who then resigned completely from parliament.
The ear wax thing was more trivial, but the MSM wouldn’t of jumped on it if it hadn’t been on YouTube.]
The media worked hand-in-hand with the Liberal Party in a smear campaign against the “Labor upstart”.
Chris Curtis #124
1. I said “election” – as did the link. Neither specifies House numbers.
2.
. Keep telling yourself that, though, overall, less than 10% backed it in 1958, and by your own admission, only 11.1% swallowed that line (and, from memory, The DLP is the true ALP) in its best Senate performance. Nor, from my reading of research literature meeting the objectivity standards demanded by our top “Sandstone + ANU & Monash” universities or peer-reviewed standards, did researchers whose “back-grounding” included the history of CA politics, both generally and in specific countries (inc Oz)! There’s a large international research corpus on the topic!
3.
I did not; so stop the typical CA/ Leninist Guilt by assertion aka argumentum ad hominem: poisoning the well crap. In my school – and most other schools of the time – logic was a core subject, especially for those aiming for “verbal” university courses and subjects, which also included it.
4.
I’ve seen no objective evidence to support this claim; far from it!
As DLP vote fell, and its influence dissipated, whither its loyalists would go next was widely debated, including in peer-refereed journals and other publications. Most believed to the Country Party, although there was considerable argument that the DLP’s desire to enact their agenda would see them colonise the Liberal Party. Backing this argument was the failure of yet another round of small-block (“selector”/ “soldier”) settlements and, most significantly, UK’s entry into the EEC’s effect on dairy, fruit & vegetable farmers, which made Santamaria’s small (peasant) farming policies unworkable.
In QLD, the DLP became closely aligned with Joh BP, joining the coalition of RW elements, including the League of Rights, in trying to implement Joh’s very conservative “moral” agenda. Newspaper accounts, letters to the editor and research articles (I still have a book of clippings on SE Qld meetings on a range of issues including school curriculum) establish this beyond doubt. As one who attended an RC secondary college, I can assure you, from attendance at class & school reunions, that NONE of my fellow students who were CA/ DLP vote ALP. I also knew DLP members during my working life, and found the same pattern. Victoria’s experience is similar.
In NSW, Groupers remained initially in the ALP as its Right – and the (mainly Catholic) Right still controls it – but many hard-line anti-Communists (esp Eastern European and Mid-E and SE Asian migrants who’d lived through post-1945 civil wars) increasingly joined the Liberals, their factional warfare successfully keeping the latter from government for all but a few terms since the 1950s. There’s a corpus of peer-reviewed and other literature on this – and the belief that it (and not Splitting in NSW) has created the greatest problems for both parties. Similar factional wars in QLD & Vic Liberal Parties have achieved much the same result.
5.
Shows On simply refuses to accept that it was part of a highly orchestrated smear campaign covering all of the MSM. The fact that it didn’t happen to work is irrelevant, as the intent was clearly to damage him
Shows On is in denial for some reason.
I dont really understand where the “lets worry about Tony” camp is coming from. So, after years of huge poll leads, and noted poll support for action on climate change, even among liberal supporters, changing to a denialist position is likely to improve their vote?
um: how? its far more likely that voters have already decided they’re voting ALP in 2010.
I think the “insiders” (which include most commentators here) in this country have missed a critical point: action on climate change is popular, NOT because of the science, or debates over policy – but rather, because the lived experience of ordinary voters is that its just plain getting hotter, there’s more extreme weather events and the climate is changing for the worse.
That’s why Abbott is screwed – they’re effectively trying to argue against ordinary common sense now.
[The media worked hand-in-hand with the Liberal Party in a smear campaign against the “Labor upstart”.]
This piece by Paul Sheehan demonstrates that they are off to a flying start to do it all again and try and prop up the fragile Abbott regime. Not quite sure if this is the way to do it though! 😉
[When Julia Gillard faced the media outside Federal Parliament in Canberra on Wednesday she looked shell-shocked. She then proceeded to give the most jittery, hollow, nonsensical performance of her career. It was pantomime of the lowest order.
”Today the climate change extremists and deniers in the Liberal Party have stopped this nation from taking decisive action on climate change,” the Deputy Prime Minister said, deadpan, into a thicket of cameras and recorders.
Extremists and deniers. In case anyone had missed the point, she repeated the phrase five times. ”Now [we] have been stopped by the Liberal Party extremists and the climate change deniers. This nation has been stopped from taking a major step in the nation’s interests by Liberal Party extremists and climate change deniers.”
This is clearly going to be the mantra the Rudd Government uses to describe anyone who opposes its pointless legislation on an emissions trading scheme.
Gillard used the terms ”denier” or ”denial” 11 times, pointed words because they carry the connotation of Holocaust denial. The last time that tactic was used in the national debate, after the release of the Bringing Them Home report, it exploded on those who used it.
So this is going to get interesting because the political ground has shifted in the past six months. It is now the Rudd Government that appears to be in a state of denial.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/copenhagen-backlash-hits-a-government-in-denial-20091206-kcsu.html
[Gillard used the terms ”denier” or ”denial” 11 times, pointed words because they carry the connotation of Holocaust denial.]
What is this lunacy?
[Shows On simply refuses to accept that it was part of a highly orchestrated smear campaign covering all of the MSM. ]
I don’t think it is a smear campaign to report that Rudd visited Scores or met with Brian Burke. They are facts.
Abbott described climate change as, quote: “absolute crap”. That’s definitive denialism that can’t be dressed up any other way. This Sheehan throws in a quite despicable strawman with his references to Holocaust denialism. He should pin a Liberal banner to his ‘articles’ and exit the commentary scene in disgrace.
[pointed words because they carry the connotation of Holocaust denial]
Godwin’s law applies here too right?
[I don’t think it is a smear campaign to report that Rudd visited Scores]
What about the claim that he was asked to leave for inappropriately touching a waitress?
[His $50B+ current stance based on a 5% reduction from 2000, will look a bit sick if the Copenhagen Conference comes out with a 20% or 25% reduction figure.]
These numbers are very important without a doubt but there is another set of numbers that will be equally as important.
We need to know what the governments of our major export market’s plans are to place an emissions duty on materials and produce from countries that do not meet agreed international emissions targets. If the agreed target is 15% and the Libs announce plans to make 5% reductions then the panic through the business and farming communities will be like wildfire.
I hope such a duty would be high enough and painful enough that no country which wants to trade internationally would fail to sign up to the agreed international targets.
Psephos #157
I loved Kudelka’s manger & Magi cartoon http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/gallery-e6frg6zx-1111120349509?page=2 (definitely one for one’s Xmas “cards” & emails!) and Tony’s money tree http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/gallery-e6frg6zx-1111120349509?page=1
233
Reading my post back it sounds a little garbled – I hope it makes sense.
Holy Hell! I just read David Burchell’s claptrap in the OO. An example of the purple prose:
[If I were Tony Abbott, this would be the dark lingering interior thought I’d be trying to sweep out of my mind right now.
Is this really my time? Are my strengths of character truly what my party now needs? Can my firmness and integrity restore confidence to a disordered party-room? Or will the robust soil of my conviction merely feed the roots that drive the party’s twining tendrils of madness?]
Who does he think Abbott is? Winston Bloody Churchill? This idolatry the conservative columnists are going through is symptomatic of their yearning for the Old Days when things were certain and Howard was PM.
These are mature people, well-educated and supposedly experienced journalists. And they write rubbish like this? They sound like a bunch of schoolgirls mooning over the captain of the football team.
Creating a bootstrapper with the legend that Abbott has single-handedly saved the Liberal Party – via one poll (where the Libs went backwards) and two safe-seat by-elections – isbad enough, but I’m really starting to worry they might be believing it themselves.
[I believe modern political negative advertising harms the sender, not the receiver.]
Not quite.
In the United States, the conventional wisdom is that it hurts both the candidate who delivers the attack, and the target of the attack. (But presumably it must hurt the target more, else it wouldn’t be utilised.)
In a general election, it apparently has the effect of driving turnout down.
In a primary election, it’s one reason to avoid negative attacks. For if candidate X attacks candidate Y, then candidate Z benefits most.
But this has questionable applicability for Australia where we don’t have primary elections or voluntary voting.
[These are mature people, well-educated and supposedly experienced journalists. And they write rubbish like this?]
Journalism is an oft misused term these days
The Indians have a more important thing to worry about than CC:
[India demolish Sri Lanka to become number 1 Test team – When Muttiah Muralitharan was caught behind off Harbhajan Singh, signalling an innings victory and a 2-0 series triumph, the joy on Sachin Tendulkar’s face, as he called the support staff and reserve players on to the field to share the moment, was proof of the journey this team has taken.
“I think Sachin was probably dying for this day. He started in 1989 and has completed 20 years in international cricket,” said Sunil Gavaskar. “This is a big moment for Sachin. I would think this is as big as all his personal records.”
As Tendulkar later stated, in 20 years of cricket, this was the first time he’d been part of a team that was No. 1. And he’s seen it all — from the painful period of matchfixing, his own troubled captaincy, the revival under Sourav Ganguly, a period of consolidation with Rahul Dravid at the helm and then the caretaker captaincy of Anil Kumble, who brought a quiet dignity and steel to the team.
Through this process of churning, Mahendra Singh Dhoni was finally handed the reins in 2008, and given charge of building on the successes of his predecessors. And Dhoni built a team that he can now call his own, despite stalwarts like Tendulkar, Dravid and Laxman in the mix. ]
http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-demolish-Sri-Lanka-to-become-number-1-Test-team/H1-Article1-483751.aspx
Phillips, the guy who assaulted Rann, is pleading not guilty. The case has been held over to Jan 13. He’s going to call Rann and “focus” on the Rann-Chantelois relationship. Rann and Chantelois will obviously be under oath.
[“Although it is his first appearance in court, I can indicate that subject to further legal advice … Mr Phillips wishes to defend the matter,” Mr Lister said.
“We anticipate the trial would incorporate the calling of all relevant witnesses, including the alleged victim (Mr Rann),” Mr Lister said.
Mr Lister said the focus of the trial would be on the relationship between Mr Rann and Phillips’ estranged wife, Michelle Chantelois.]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26450909-5006301,00.html
[He’s going to call Rann and “focus” on the Rann-Chantelois relationship. Rann and Chantelois will obviously be under oath.]
LOL! That guy is a complete nutter. Whatever happened between Rann and Chantelois is not an excuse to assault someone.
[Phillips, the guy who assaulted Rann, is pleading not guilty.]
Diog, your Wangker Wangker?
The good thing about him pleading not guilty is that when he is found guilty he will face a harsher sentence. I mean there were only about 30 eye witnesses!
[Phillips, the guy who assaulted Rann, is pleading not guilty. The case has been held over to Jan 13. He’s going to call Rann and “focus” on the Rann-Chantelois relationship. Rann and Chantelois will obviously be under oath.]
Is Rann screwed?
triton #164
Let us not forget, Dearly Beloved, Yon Barnaby attended the same intellectually elitist school as Our Abbott, during the period when it still selected the top 2% intellectually, and trained them as only elitist Jesuit Colleges did.
The Abbott, at least, is a conflicted (deeply conflicted, I suspect) character, and it helps him weave his own political rope. If Barnaby’s conflicted, I’ve seen no signs yet. Of his ambition and acting skills, however, I’ve no doubt. When initially elected, Barnaby seemed like a voice of sweet reason in the Nats; but in Qld’s rural (especially poor rural) reaches, it’s Joh- and Katter-like illogical diatribes that go down a treat! Which type does he specialise in now?
At least Abbott’s transparent, even if kaleidoscopically so.
Of course, I don’t read The Arsetrailian so I don’t see Kudelke cartoons. Great minds think alike.
SO
I’m not sure he can even call Rann to discuss Ms Chantelois. It’s not like he’s pleading temporary insanity at seeing his wifes supposed ex-lover. I would be interested to see if Rann has to answer questions about it.
I suppose it goes to motive though so it might be allowed.
[LOL! That guy is a complete nutter. Whatever happened between Rann and Chantelois is not an excuse to assault someone.]
Any decent judge won’t allow much latitude on questioning. He’s got no hope.
[Is Rann screwed?]
Should we wait until the next SA poll comes out and then post the ALP’s primary vote with a kissing smiley next to it several hundred times?