Newspoll: 56-44

Courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble comes the first heavy duty opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era. The two-party vote shows little change, with Labor’s lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. However, it seems rounding might have smoothed the result out a little: the Coalition is up three points on the primary vote to 38 per cent (the Liberals on 34 per cent have swallowed a point from the Nationals) while Labor is steady on 43 per cent. No approval ratings on Abbott were sought, but his 60-23 deficit on preferred prime minister compares with 65-14 against for Turnbull last week and 63-22 a fortnight previous. The poll offers further evidence that the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 58-42, unchanged on last week. 21 per cent of respondents say the Abbott ascendancy makes them more likely to vote Liberal; 33 per cent say less. Lots of questions on leadership perceptions, almost all of it more favourable to Rudd than Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,136 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. Surely the Liberals will be worried that 62% of all voters (and 64% of women) think that Abbott will be about the same or worse than Turnbull.

  2. aar aar well aherr arr well let me say arrr that i expected better! but let me tell you these polls go up and down arr

    The above i image would be Abbott’s response

  3. William wrote ;

    [ The poll offers further evidence that the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey]

    BB you’re sounding a bit here like bob 1234567890.

    Lets see where it gos 🙂

  4. I didn’t think Labor’s primary vote would shift any but thought that the 2PP might go down a bit as well as the Greens vote!

    A bit surprised at Abbott’s PPM figure but it is early days yet and he is entitled to a honeymoon. We can’t spoil tradition, can we?

    But I don’t expect it to last too long even with the combined help of a good part of the MSM attempting to remake him!

    Time for bed, night all!

  5. Well I am a woman and Abbott gives me the creeps, no other way to describe it, same reaction from my sister-in-law so that makes a (statistically insignificant
    ) total of 2 of us!

  6. Peter Young, no that was the late lamented David Widdup.

    Peter Young was an Army major who resigned his commission in protest against the Vietnam War and ran for Labor against McMahon. He did quite well but didn’t win. He later became a military historian, and wrote a book about the German Army and the Nazi Party.

  7. I was thinking it would be a point or two worse than this for the Coalition but only because previous polls always put Abbott as the least liked option as Opposition leader. His PPM at 60/23 whilst awful is a bit better than Turnbull’s was, MT wouldn’t like that.

    Will require a few polls of course to gauge anything.

    Least Tony will take something from it not leaping to 59/41 before Christmas.

  8. [Lets see where it gos]
    Well according to Van Onselen, that’s the last Newspoll of the year. The next one won’t be until the day parliament resumes.

  9. Does anyone think that a really hot summer (which is likely) will make climate change an even more pressing issue?

    I was hoping that a poll company would do a poll on climate change and the CPRS now, and then do exactly the same thing in early or mid Feb and see if the results differ.

  10. I’m watching a replay of Abbott’s first press conference on Order in the House. He said that the primary responsibility of government is to “run a good economy”. If that is how he is going to frame the election he won’t win, because the government stimulus protected the economy from recession, which of course was a policy that Abbott and the rest of the Coalition voted against.

  11. Thomas Paine
    I can’t see that poll so soon after a leadership change tells us anything. The word ‘Abbott’ has not registered on 99% of brains yet. We won’t be able to get a bead on the impact of Abbott until late February.

    Unless he does a circus trick over the silly season. I suppose Abbott often blows up and bursts a condom over his head as a party trick – and to reinforce the Pope’s message about the evil of condoms – so maybe he’ll do that over Christmas in front of the cameras. 🙂

  12. [THE shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, has estimated the cost of Tony Abbott’s climate change policy at over $50 billion.

    In a tense confidential exchange in shadow cabinet two weeks ago, before Mr Abbott seized the Liberal leadership, Mr Hockey challenged his colleague’s position on climate change.

    According to people present during the spirited debate, Mr Hockey spoke strongly in favour of the Liberal policy at that time – pushed by the then leader, Malcolm Turnbull – to support the Government’s amended emissions trading scheme.

    Mr Abbott was one of six in the 20-member shadow cabinet who spoke out against the policy.

    Mr Hockey challenged him by asking: “What’s the alternative?”

    Mr Abbott cited a list of carbon abatement measures – other than an emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax – that Mr Turnbull had mentioned in a speech on January 24.

    Mr Hockey, exasperated, shot back: “That’s $50 billion plus!”

    This figure apparently is based on his own estimate of the cost of the measures, which are now at the core of Liberal policy since Mr Abbott took the leadership last week and dumped support for the ETS or a carbon tax.]

  13. ShowsOn
    Shanahan doesn’t hold back. This is a huge statisitic he cites:
    [Mr Abbott’s start against Mr Rudd is better than all of the preferred prime minister polls for Brendan Nelson.]
    Wow. Can’t do better than that 🙂

  14. You sometimes have to feel sorry for the murdoch boys, they try so hard but look so pathetic at it, you feel like flicking them a few coins so they don’t have to keep demeaning themselves.

  15. As far as the moderates in the Liberal Party are concerned surely they cannot afford to let the ‘right’ be seen to be successful as it helps entrench the party over to the far right. But they cannot win. I gather the more they destablise the more moderates they lose at an election, unless they recover the reins quickly.

    It would make sense for Turnbull and Co to regain LOTO as soon as they can and if possible vote through the ETS in Feb or May. But to do this they will have to do some heavy work 1. raising the profile and urgency of CC and the ETS and 2. undermining whatever Abbott’s position is.

    So we may see the battle between right and centre played out over the next few months.

    I would say the right will win if they have a respectable loss at the next election against current expectations.

  16. Thomas P @ 31
    Yes, it’s very interesting. The moderates won’t just sit back and relax, because they couldn’t possibly believe the right can deliver government, surely. Turnbull said as much just before being deposed.

    So, how do the mods get back control of the party? I don’t think they can wait around too long either, because if they do the right will stack and rort in all their seats and the structure etc.

    And, yes, they need to strike as early as possible, which means as soon as Abbott starts to lose the plot. The best way to assist him to do so might be to send a couple of Senators across the floor to pass the CPRS bill in the next session. That’s why what the govt and the Greens and Mr X can come up in the meantime is very important.

    Coonan’s rejection of a front bench position today is interesting in this regard too.

  17. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!! Shanahan and Milne, jokes of the highest proportions. I know they read this blog and all I can say guys is take early retirement because your analysis no longer has any credibility in an age of internet instant information.

  18. Ooh Mumble is working again.

    So ACNielsen sees the Greens go from 8% to a record 13% for ACN, while the last three Newspolls have been 11%, 12%, 11%.

    Yes, it seems the baiters that come on here saying how they voted Green in 2007 but never will again have been shown up for what they are.

    Ahhh, righteousness.

    Greens to hold Senate BoP after the next election! The number of people who believe otherwise is getting smaller by the day. Kudos to Antony Green.


  19. In the past two weeks, Rudd’s satisfaction has gone up 2 and dissat down 2. I think from that we can safely conclude the small shift in other numbers was due to the Turnbull drag factor.

  20. Turnbull has shown throughout his career and since the election loss that either he has a hide of body armour or is totally unaware of how brazen he is and how dire things get for him.

    He hates not being superior and will detest not being top dog among this lot, as I can imagine he holds them all in contempt.

    I doubt that Turnbull will want to hang around after the next election for another 3 years, that means 4 years before he can have a shot at PM. He wont be that patient.
    His only chance then is in 2010 or never. Given his audacity and total lack of fear or propriety I can imagine him plotting as we speak to undermine Abbott and Co.

    He especially wouldn’t want Abbott to have a honeymoon. So I am hoping for lots of fun and games.

    Otherwise, if Turnbull is bored with the whole thing then he will leave after the next election. But a shot at the PM, Top Dog in the country is pretty hard for a narcissist to let go by ….he could be a contenda.

  21. Re by-elections on Saturday, How did the MSM spin that as a win for Abbott? there was a swing against the libs in both seats! isn’t the norm a big swing to the opposition party mid-term for any elected govt?
    Still no-one (MSM) has asked how much the mad-monks scheme to combat CC will cost thus how much the plebs will end up paying. 50bn mentioned above.
    Re women hating the mad monk, I think both men and women hate this nut job in equal proportions. Re his stand on Abortion and the RU486 pill won’t affect libs policy when in govt: absolutely laughable. He will white-ant both of those stands continuously, it would be like putting Brian Harradine in charge of…… Abortion and the RU486 pill, jesus god help us all!!!

  22. [13…crikey whitey…..And as just one woman, I remain unattracted.]

    And, similarly, as a bloke, I also have no time for the budgie.

  23. None of the women I know who have stated an opinion on Abbott, and thats about 15-20 in the past few days, can tolerate him at all. Contempt is the most common reaction. Many refer to him as a ‘sleaze’.

  24. If I were PM, I would offer Turnbull a job as Special Envoy on Climate Issues. Turnbull would love it. Who in their right mind would ever want to lead the Liberal Party anyway!

  25. [only Shanahan and Milne believe the greens won’t hold the balance of power in the senate…]

    Can you imagine the hive of activity PB will be in circumstances where Labor are locked in negotiations with the Greens?

    I think William may very well do a Frederick Holder…

  26. The stability in Rudd+Labor’s numbers really are the stand-out features of the polling. The PPM numbers must be a worry for the Liberals: they have just selected a leader who is as just uncompetitive as both Turnbull and Nelson. Add to that, they have just burned Joe Hockey, and they must be wondering where the next Liberal PM is going to come from.

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