Newspoll: 56-44

Courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble comes the first heavy duty opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era. The two-party vote shows little change, with Labor’s lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. However, it seems rounding might have smoothed the result out a little: the Coalition is up three points on the primary vote to 38 per cent (the Liberals on 34 per cent have swallowed a point from the Nationals) while Labor is steady on 43 per cent. No approval ratings on Abbott were sought, but his 60-23 deficit on preferred prime minister compares with 65-14 against for Turnbull last week and 63-22 a fortnight previous. The poll offers further evidence that the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 58-42, unchanged on last week. 21 per cent of respondents say the Abbott ascendancy makes them more likely to vote Liberal; 33 per cent say less. Lots of questions on leadership perceptions, almost all of it more favourable to Rudd than Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,136 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

Comments Page 2 of 63
1 2 3 63
  1. Thomas Paine – 39

    I agree it will be interesting to see how Turnbull acts in the next 6 months or so. Just as interesting is the question whether he will retire at the 2010 election and return to the business world. The Liberal (either Turnbull or another candidate) hold on Wentworth seems tenuous at best. Labor intend standing a good candidate in 2010. I suspect Turnbull’s thirst for representing the great unwashed masses in routine constituent affairs is greatly diminished.

  2. Well most pundits and public seem to think that Turnbull was a disaster as Leader of the Opp. and according to this Newspoll 62% reckon he’ll be about the same….or worse.
    Even about half of COALition supporters think that.

    Hardly a ringing endorsement.

  3. [Can you imagine the hive of activity PB will be in circumstances where Labor are locked in negotiations with the Greens?]

    Why do you think Labor is sending these bills back to Parliament in Feb, and again in May if rejected? – it will be precisely so they can say to the electorate in September that THIS is their plan, and that they will pass it if necessary at a Double Sitting, and that they will not be negotiating with either the Coalition (tried that) or the Greens (to avoid the political “blowback” in some demographics from associating with them).

  4. This cant be right. Rudd is still on honeymoon and now Abbott has joined him on honeymoon.

    Are we having a foursome between these two God fearing, church going and hymn singing politicians? Tiger, Tiger, Tiger Tiger Tiger burning bright. (That’s the latest count).

  5. [Abbott gamble pays off for Libs – LIBERAL Party support has bounced back and Tony Abbott has cut into Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister within a week of the newly elected Leader of the Opposition spectacularly reversing the Liberals’ stand on climate change and rejecting Labor’s ETS. ]

    Shanananana must be smoking something else for Christmas.

    [Support for Mr Rudd as preferred prime minister fell five percentage points last weekend from 65 to 60 per cent and Mr Abbott started on 23 per cent, a rise of nine points compared with Mr Turnbull’s 14 per cent the previous weekend.]

    [When Mr Turnbull was first elected, he scored 24 per cent to Mr Rudd’s 54 per cent]

    So in fact Abbott has started worse off than Turnbull as PPM. Rudd Vs Turnbull 54-24. Rudd Vs Abbott 60-23. And Shanananana calls it “Abbott gamble pays off for Libs”. This man really has no shame and treats his readers like idiots.

    Lucy Turnbull is dancing in the street with sharpen knives. I pity Abbott, he is not only fighting Rudd but Lucy Turnbull as well.

  6. Finns

    Nice summary, putting things into context.

    It’s a pity those fawning hacks over at the OO couldn’t see past their noses and do the same – then again, when one see where their noses are one can understand why.

  7. More on Milne:

    [In Chatswood West, where from the top of the many apartment blocks you could probably glimpse Kirribilli House in the hazed distance, the swing to Abbott and Fletcher was 6.8 per cent.]

    there aint no high rise at Chatswood West, only low rise. The high rise in Chatswood is around the Chatswood rail station and for a 2 bedroom flat, it starts at $700K and a 3 bedroom can starts at $1.1m. Some battlers.

  8. JV@1211, last thread:

    [So it doesn’t matter how right-wing ’some of his policies’ are, as long as the ALP keeps the Libs out of contention. Is that a coherent and principled political position, or is it just party pragmatism in pursuit of power for its own sake?]

    JV, that’s the game of politics. I simply describe what might well happen.

    I feel safer with leaders who are not committed christians, because it can affect their approach to all manner of things, climate change and the environment included.

    If you think that jesus is coming real soon now, there’s not the same drive to wash the dishes, mow the lawn, paint the fence, and fix the place up before the rapture.

    But that’s what we are stuck with, godbotherers on both sides of the fence. Not to consider possible scenarios is to lead to failure to see what may be coming, and that includes St Kev lurching further to the right to fill the moderate right vacuum left by Turnbull’s departure.

    I suspect Kev’s minders were as gobsmacked as the rest of us were when Abbott took power. It looks like Turnbull pulled a real master stroke there, telling the world he would fight to the bitter end, but giving the impression to Minchin, Hockey et al that he would not in fact run if a spill occurred.

    If you don’t consider all possibilities and prepare for them, you will be left floundering. I’ll bet Kev has issued a directive by now to work out what happens if Bronny Bishop takes over the helm. Doesn’t do to be caught out when the egg hits the fan.

  9. From my recollection, the ‘Abbott isn’t popular with women’ meme began with a few journos noticing that male journos liked Abbott but their female counterparts didn’t.

    Given the incestuous circle of journalism, and the prettiness of their belief that they are ‘the real world’, this meme has become accepted as applying to the world in general.

    However, I think it is significant. Abbott would appeal to the men journos on totally non political grounds; they may disagree with everything he says politically and stands for morally, but they can talk to him on other subjects, particularly sport, and get along fine.

    Female journos, however, can’t. If they tried to talk to him about sport, he’d adopt that awful attitude of ‘you can’t really know about x unless you’ve played it’ and there’d be few other subjects they’d be able to relate with him on.

    Noticed this phenomena time after time in the ‘real world’ – all the men think someone’s a good bloke, most women despise him. That’s because all the men talk to that someone about is sport and he can’t engage women at all.

  10. Socrates@1216:

    Thanks for the solar thermal info – but it is an energy source in its infancy. All that business about the amount of concrete and steel needed – it is entirely possible that better designs will reduce that considerably.

    I am reminded of bushwalking equipment. It is common for some (in my opinion stupid) bushwalkers to go on an overnight hike with eighteen kilos or more on their backs. My pack weighs 4.5 kilos without food and water, and I never go on any walk, even for a week, with a total packweight of more than ten kilos.

    Nuclear power has had a long time to get things right, solar thermal is in its infancy, there are probably many efficiencies still to be gained.

    [Xanthippe Rulez (but is also a bit bored of folding washing).

    … I better go and help Xanthippe!]

    Do what we do. I wash, dry and put away my clothes, my wife does hers. Saves a lot of marital angst. Same goes for cooking meals, then you eat what and when you want.

  11. Finns: As mentioned ealier re Milne and Shameahan….LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL…Jokes in the press gallery. The laws of politics are about as imutable as those of physics, Abbott will not defy Newton’s law of gravity, he is as sunk as the Bismark. I love mixing metaphors!

  12. The ABC is calling it “Abbott reaps poll bounce”. I suppose it’s true a rise from 14 to 23 is a ‘bounce’, but it doesn’t mask the fact that the polls suggests a major loss for the Liberal Party. The ABC should leave sensationalism to the commercial press.

  13. I am totally convinced that the so called political reporting class and associated commentariat are no friggin good at their job and should be summarliy sacked. Better off replacing them with PBers, Glen, Vera, Finns; even Bob1234 would be better at least Bob can count to 4 and do rudimentary percentages.

  14. [None of the women I know who have stated an opinion on Abbott, and thats about 15-20 in the past few days, can tolerate him at all. Contempt is the most common reaction. Many refer to him as a ’sleaze’.]

    This is my experience too but it doesn’t appear to be playing out in the polls to date. This is now the 3rd poll in a row that doesn’t support the women won’t vote for Abbott statement.

    [Yes, it seems the baiters that come on here saying how they voted Green in 2007 but never will again have been shown up for what they are.]

    They didn’t even say this. A lot of them said they gave the Greens their second preference after the ALP. This is, of course, useless to the Greens and they won’t be crying themselves to sleep over it.

  15. Abbott’s PPM soars from 14 to 23!

    Put another way, he’s shot from absolutely hopeless to hopeless.

    Keep it up Tony – another 5% and you’ll be merely in a demonstrably losing position.

  16. This poll proves one thing: the elevation of Abbott to Liberal leader solidifies their conservative base, but that’s about it! Cowtowing to Alan Jones and the shock jocks might play well for you on Sydney’s North Shore and in the wealthier suburbs of Melbourne, but those people are rusted on Liberals anyway.
    And predictably Milne and Shanahack will hype any small improvement in their ratings as the advent of the 2nd coming and the portent of disaster for Rudd! 😉

  17. Crikey! I have a day off and I see this on the front page of the OO:

    [ Abbott gamble pays off for Libs

    Dennis Shanahan, Political editor LIBERAL Party support has bounced back and Tony Abbott has cut into Kevin Rudd’s lead within a week of taking over as Liberal leader.

    * PANIC: Rudd calls off early dash to Copenhagen
    * HOSTILITIES: Role reversal as leaders line up
    * BY-ELECTIONS: ALP voters turn to Libs
    * MEDIA: Selling the Mad Monk
    * DENNIS SHANAHAN: Voters switching back to Coalition
    * GLENN MILNE: A sign that Libs have got it right
    * DAVID BURCHELL: Abbott must seize moment, if he can
    * EDITORIAL: Rot stops as Liberal base embraces Abbott]

    Panic? Hostilities? Seize the moment? Battlers? Abbott embraced?

    Did the world change while I was mowing my lawns and getting an early night?

  18. Lucy Turnbull will not be silenced. She likes to tighten Abbott Rosaries further.

    [MALCOLM Turnbull has attacked new Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s climate change stance in his first electorate newsletter since he lost the leadership.

    “The new Leader Mr Tony Abbott said that he is now working on a new policy which the media reports he says will involve cutting emissions but without any tax, ETS or increased electricity prices,” Mr Turnbull wrote in the newsletter.

    “Many people have asked: is this possible? Is there a costless way to cut emissions? While there are some energy-efficiency measures which pay for themselves over the long term, the simple fact is that there is a cost of moving to a lower emission economy.

    “That is because the cheapest form of generating energy in Australia is by burning fossil fuels, which emit a lot of greenhouse gases. And the cheapest coal, brown coal, is the dirtiest.”]

  19. [Crikey! I have a day off and I see this on the front page of the OO:]

    BB, that sounds like Their ABC RN this morning with Fran and La Grattan.

  20. Bushfire Bill: would you expect any different from News Ltd? 😆
    They are a bunch of Liberal media hacks, George Megalogenis is the only one who ever comes close to writing an objective commentary piece.

  21. Its a shame Shanahan is back to his spinning best. Abbott has not improved anything on PPM. He hasnt had a rating before, and his rating starts below that of Turnbull when he took over. The good news for the opposition though is that their 2PP has held up well despite their troubles

  22. [Lucy Turnbull will not be silenced. She likes to tighten Abbott Rosaries further.]

    Finns, I warned you all last week, don’t underestimate Lucy, she’s no shrinking violet!

  23. 56-44 equates to:
    ALP 101 Seats
    COALITION 46 Seats
    OTHERS 3 seats

    Obviously a great result for the conservatives, right News Ltd? 😉

  24. [don’t underestimate Lucy, she’s no shrinking violet!]

    Evan , not after the Australia Story. She wears the pants in the Turnbull clan.

  25. The Liberals score 34% on the primary vote and this is “a sign the Liberals have got it right.” Huh? Two-thirds of voters don’t support the Liberal Party. That sounds about right to me: nothing has changed in voters’ estimation of the Liberals. If this is the Liberals getting things right, they will still be obliterated at the next election.

  26. Finns@70:

    [Lucy Turnbull will not be silenced. She likes to tighten Abbott Rosaries further.]

    Finns, I think you might have to recalibrate the Rosaries index.

    How about doing him slowly, start with the left little toe, cut off the circulation there, and move to the next?

    The tightening around the neck can wait till the next election, unless he self immolates before then.

    The journey is long, it would not do to have your victim of a thousand cuts be throttled before the game is well begun.

  27. In fairness to Shanahan, he’s really just said that it looks like the Libs might do better under Abbott than Turnbull or Nelson, which means they made the right move.

  28. What? Latham has better PPM debut than Abbott 26 to 24.

    My apology to Latham, Abbott is no Latham Mark 2, he is Abbott Mark-Less.

  29. Bob Hawke called Abbott last week a “temporary leader” of the Liberals! LOL 😀
    Revelations in today’s SMH that Abbott’s much vaunted alternative to “Rudd’s Evil Tax” would cost 50 billion dollars, according to the Member For North Sydney. 😆
    I can’t wait to see what loony ideas Greg Hunt comes up with – planting more trees etc.

  30. [Finns, I think you might have to recalibrate the Rosaries index. ]

    Don, this will fit Abbott nicely:

    All Lucy has to do is to pull and Abbott’s two ring circus will be three ring.

  31. [In fairness to Shanahan, he’s really just said that it looks like the Libs might do better under Abbott than Turnbull or Nelson, which means they made the right move.]

    Maybe, but it’s hard to judge. The OO writers are on about Labor losing ground and the Libs being resurgent etc. etc., but how could they know?

    Labor didn’t contest the by-elections.

    The Libs’ vote dropped.

    2PP figures are worthless when the parties involved are different between the two events (last election and last Saturday).

    Labor won the Newspoll by a thumping amount.

    Rudd is clearly ascendant over whoever the Libs put up as Leader.

    How can people be expressing a vote of confidence in the Libs’ climate policy when even Abbott admits they have no policy (but one’s coming soon).

    Articles and spin like these are relying on the notion that there is a silent majority out there just waiting for the right Liberal Messiah to lead them to heaven. Millions are ready to switch their voting intentions of years now that Abbott has arrived. It’s the old “Labor’s support is soft” routine. I see no evidence for it.

    This is a bootstrapper’s bootstrapper.

  32. On the debate thing, theoretically wouldn’t it be better for Rudd to have Bob B there as Brown would attack Abbott more and Rudd would come off looking the moderate one. Abbott’s populist crap about not doing anything much would look much worse up against Brown and the scientists 25-40%, than just against Rudds 5-25%.

    I know the debate won’t happen but it would make good television.

  33. When someone can show me that 60 – 23 PPM, 56 – 44 TPP, a stable 43% for Labor and an increased personal satisfaction for Rudd is something to be concerned about then I will start worrying.
    The OO and the journalists are often complaining about the spin of governments. Well, this beat up by them over this poll surpasses any spin the government can come up with.

  34. BB

    [The OO writers are on about Labor losing ground and the Libs being resurgent etc. etc., but how could they know?]

    I think it’s more the case that the Libs are relieved that Abbott has passed his first few “tests”. There must have been quite a few absolutely crapping themselves that they would lose Higgins and that Newspoll would blow out to 60+. They must be breathing a huge sigh of relief.

    I’ve spoken to quite a few women and they really dislike Abbott. Either I’m talking to Labor voters, or they are Libs who won’t change their vote just because of Abbott.

    I’ll be interested to see what his approval ratings show, as that would be the best way to see what women really think of him.

    From a party POV, it all looks very status quo to me and Abbott is such a well-known quantity that I doubt it will change much. The Libs are still stuffed unless they can mount a brilliant scare campaign on the ETS.

  35. Funnily enough, Tony Abbott has the most sensible thing to say about it.

    [Mr Abbott says he is encouraged by the opinion poll but he says he has a challenge ahead of him to close the gap.

    “It’s been an encouraging start; there’s a a hell of a long way to go,” he said.

    “I think the Government will be short-priced favourite going into the next election.”]

  36. 90 – I agree Dio. Just one exception – “The Libs are still stuffed unless they can mount a brilliant scare campaign on the ETS” and Labor mounts no fear campaign at all, which it will of course.

  37. I don’t see why exactly he would be encouraged by the poll. I was going to say a poll not being awful is not cause for encouragement, but of course 56/44 IS awful.

  38. [“I think the Government will be short-priced favourite going into the next election.”]
    Tony is hosing down any unreal expectations. Good on him.

  39. [In fairness to Shanahan, he’s really just said that it looks like the Libs might do better under Abbott than Turnbull or Nelson, which means they made the right move.]

    I see no evidence of this at this stage. Abbott’s ‘first poll’ is worse than Turnbulls ‘first poll’ and look where that ended up.

  40. GB

    Depends on what scare campaign Labor runs. They wouldn’t want to run a “CC will kill us all unless we act urgently” campaign for two reasons

    1. People will point out that Rudd should have higher targets if it’s that serious
    2. The polls show that population are increasingly saying that the threat of CC is being overstated and they are getting sceptical about alarmism

  41. Disappointing. Still, the police are investigating and something might happen with that. X is still going to force a vote.

    [THE Senate will not hold an inquiry into Scientology, saying it believes the ATO and police can investigate any complaints.

    A staff member for the Leader of the Government in the Senate, Chris Evans, has emailed Scientologists who wrote to Senator Evans after an independent senator, Nick Xenophon, made a series of explosive allegations in the Senate last month, Fairfax newspapers say.]

  42. [They wouldn’t want to run a “CC will kill us all unless we act urgently”]
    Abbott will have a CC policy which must cost. It will cost and have little or no compensation, nothing like the CPRS. Also the compensation of the CPRS to the householders and pensioners will be highlighted by the government. The scare campaign by the Libs just needs to be blunted.

  43. 1) Do not assume that the people you mix with are a cross-section of the community.

    2) Don’t expect the attempt to paint Tony Abbott as a religious nutter to be any more successful than the attempt to paint John Howard as the worst person on Earth was or the attempt to paint unions as thuggish child-eaters was.

    3) Do expect Tony Abbott’s preferred PM rating to reach the 40s – and stay there.

    4) Continue to expect the Liberals to lose the next election, but by a lower margin than they would if the Howard haters had not transmuted themselves into Abbott abhorrers.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 63
1 2 3 63