Newspoll: 56-44

Courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble comes the first heavy duty opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era. The two-party vote shows little change, with Labor’s lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. However, it seems rounding might have smoothed the result out a little: the Coalition is up three points on the primary vote to 38 per cent (the Liberals on 34 per cent have swallowed a point from the Nationals) while Labor is steady on 43 per cent. No approval ratings on Abbott were sought, but his 60-23 deficit on preferred prime minister compares with 65-14 against for Turnbull last week and 63-22 a fortnight previous. The poll offers further evidence that the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 58-42, unchanged on last week. 21 per cent of respondents say the Abbott ascendancy makes them more likely to vote Liberal; 33 per cent say less. Lots of questions on leadership perceptions, almost all of it more favourable to Rudd than Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,136 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  2. Ah, yes, fellow Bludgers, you know that the ABC is an “ALP mouthpiece” when your first reading of the day comes up with this gem:

    The election of a new Liberal Party leader has seen a jump in the Coalition’s standings in the latest Newspoll.

    Twenty-three per cent of those surveyed for The Australian believe new leader Tony Abbott would make a better prime minister than Kevin Rudd.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2763438.htm

    Past Federal Election results has the CA (Grouper/DLP) vote at Federal Election 1955 (c8 months after The Split) at 5.1%, peaking at 9.4% in 1958 after it spread to Queensland. Add in other fundamentalists who share Abbott & Pell’s social goals (decked out as “moral”) & Hansonite intolerance (decked out as “nationalism”), plus other Liberal voters so rusted on they can’t bring themselves even to vote informally, and you’d just about have the Abbott-led Liberals’ core vote.

    I’d agree with Tony’s statement in the same ABC article

    “I think the Government will be short-priced favourite going into the next election.”

    Finns, as one of the remaining 77%. it took only a second or two of scanning of Rupe’s online “quality” broadsheet’s lead group to decide not to ruin my day.

    And geez, I’m still one of his target demographic, have been since Day 1 – one of almost 50% of GenBlue now, as Boomers crowd into it, among the “steady as she goes” 56% 2PP who do not intend to vote for/ preference the Libs.

    If anything could improve the impact of Possum’s Liberal demographic train wreck it’s the thought of Tony as the driver!

  4. Abbott will solidify the vote that he keeps. Liberals see him as decisive. The polls will bounce around a lot but the election will still see labor gains in marginals held by moderates. The seats held by RWNJ’s will swing further to them I reckon. Labor’s vote will increase making it’s marginals safer.

  5. briefly@50 said
    [they have just burned Joe Hockey, and they must be wondering where the next Liberal PM is going to come from.]
    Can you imagine the hoop-la if Joe had been elected? The ETS may have passed and friendly cuddly Joe-boy may have gotton a few brownie points (or Newspol pts 🙂 ) from Labor types saying thank you.

    If he had been elected leader his honneymoon would have been much warmer than big mouth fool of an idiot Abbott’s (a women’s view 😉 )
    How would Shambles and the Dwarf have handles 50/30 say PPM. You’d smell their wet knickers from here!

  8. [MALCOLM Turnbull has today described the new Liberal leader Tony Abbott’s views on climate change as “bullshit” and vowed to cross the floor and vote with Labor when the legislation is brought back to Parliament next year.

    The former Liberal leader this morning posted a blog via the website Twitter where he pledged to tell a few “home truths about the farce that the Coalition’s policy, of lack of policy, on climate change has descended into”.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/turnbull-blasts-abbotts-ets-bullshit/story-e6frgczf-1225807605281

  10. Finns
    Just as well I got plenty of pegs to put on my nose 😛

    I’m going out to Jervis Bay later so will say hello to any of your rellies I spot. :kiss:

  12. [Showson
    Malcolm is fast becoming my pin-up boy!]
    Well the Abbott faction has set the precedent haven’t they? According to them it is fine to completely undermine your leader even if you simply disagree on policy. Or as Turnbull puts it:
    [While a shadow minister, Tony Abbott, was never afraid of speaking bluntly in a manner that was at odds with Coalition policy.

    So as I am a humble backbencher I am sure he won’t complain if I tell a few home truths about the farce that the Coalition’s policy, of lack of policy, on climate change has descended into.

    First, lets get this straight. You cannot cut emissions without a cost.]
    http://malcolmturnbull.com.au/MalcolmsBlogs/tabid/105/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/702/Time-for-some-straight-talking-on-climate-change.aspx

  14. As discussed last night, Turnbull is not going away, and will destabilise until he gets a chance for a spill. Saying the new leader’s position on CC is “bullshit” would appear to be today’s strategic hit in that campaign. Good stuff.

  15. [Eratosthanes
    Posted Monday, December 7, 2009 at 12:23 am | Permalink
    Just thought I’d crow about having called this newspoll last Tuesday right after Abbott became leader.]

    Just thought I’d EAT CROW for having made the wRONg call about this Newspoll last week after Abbott became leader.

    I weighted too heavily that the “give him a fair go” syndrome would be strong in the Lib heartlands and that another Rogue pPoll was always on the cards from this Rogue Pollster, so I predicted a 53-47 2PP.

    When you’ve got to eat crow, always better to eat it fresh.

  18. [Ah, yes, fellow Bludgers, you know that the ABC is an “ALP mouthpiece” when your first reading of the day comes up with this gem:]

    I think you should apologise for that libellously sarcastic comment. We all know that Janet and friends were only put on the ABC board to adjust the air conditioning.

  21. Alan Howe in the Herald Sun advises Tony Abbott to ditch Julie Bishop as deputy leader:

    [If the Libs were ranked by their leadership qualities, Bishop would be well into the double figures, but only because you’d run out of party members well before 99]

  22. [Alan Howe in the Herald Sun advises Tony Abbott to ditch Julie Bishop as deputy leader:]
    If Abbott did this there would be another leadership spill. Oh, and remember, according to Abbott, Bishop is a “loyal girl”.

  23. Some positive news on the jobs front.
    [Jobs crisis fades as full-time ads surge
    [PETER MARTIN ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT
    December 7, 2009 .
    A SURPRISE surge in full-time job advertisements is raising hopes that the worst of the employment crisis is over.

    The official job numbers are to be published on Thursday, but the index compiled by the Olivier recruitment group shows advertisements for full-time positions up 5.9 per cent last month, substantially more than the 4.6 per cent increase in ads for part-time positions.

    It is the first time demand for full-time workers has exceeded demand for part-timers since the start of the financial crisis.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/jobs-crisis-fades-as-fulltime-ads-surge-20091206-kcuz.html

  24. OzPol Tragic,

    The DLP vote peaked at 11.1 percent in the 1970 Senate election.

    The DLP was not a fundamentalist party, but a moderately left-wing anti-communist party, as I have explained more than once. Your attempt to associate it with Hansonism is really silly. The DLP was the first parliamentary party to call for the end of the White Australia policy and it supported land rights for Aborigines.

    DLPers now largely vote Labor. Tony Abbott has no claim on the DLP heritage, as I said in my unpublished dletter to The Australian, on the Morgan thread.

    gusface,

    It’s more gut feeling than detailed reasoning. Tony Abbott will be a very energetic and aggressive leader who will paint the Liberals as a definite alternative. I do not agree with those who say he is articulate, but he will still get the message across; e.g., clean AND green, but without the BIG TAX”. He is very much an ends justifies the means sort of fellow.

    Those like OzPol Tragic above who attempt to paint him as a fundamentalist will fail. Australia is not stuck in 1955.

  25. [MALCOLM Turnbull has today described the new Liberal leader Tony Abbott’s views on climate change as “bullshit” and vowed to cross the floor and vote with Labor when the legislation is brought back to Parliament next year.

    The former Liberal leader this morning posted a blog via the website Twitter where he pledged to tell a few “home truths about the farce that the Coalition’s policy, of lack of policy, on climate change has descended into”.]
    The White anting has started sooner than I thought. Mal knows he’s on a winner here.

    Brave predictions Chris Curtis. Can’t see it happening myself and I’m no Abbott hater.

  26. [Those like OzPol Tragic above who attempt to paint him as a fundamentalist will fail]

    I don’t think it will matter whether he is or isn’t painted as one. His policies alone will destroy him.

  28. [1) Do not assume that the people you mix with are a cross-section of the community.]
    Agreed but so what?
    [2) Don’t expect the attempt to paint Tony Abbott as a religious nutter to be any more successful than the attempt to paint John Howard as the worst person on Earth was or the attempt to paint unions as thuggish child-eaters was.]
    Agreed but this won’t be attempted by Labor anyway given Rudd’s religious beliefs.
    [3) Do expect Tony Abbott’s preferred PM rating to reach the 40s – and stay there.]
    An opinion based on nothing.
    [4) Continue to expect the Liberals to lose the next election, but by a lower margin than they would if the Howard haters had not transmuted themselves into Abbott abhorrers.]
    Maybe but not convinced.

  29. The first debate Abbott has (with anyone) will show him up for the weakling he is 👿
    The more he’s in the public eye the more gaffs he’ll make and glangers he’ll drop!

  30. What will sink Abbott is not his social philosophy but the known fact that he wants to bring back WorkChoices, which is he is not clever enough to deny convincingly. His climate scepticism won’t help, but it’s fear of WorkChoices II that will keep the socially conservative working class loyal to Rudd.

  31. [I don’t think it will matter whether he is or isn’t painted as one. His policies alone will destroy him.]
    Spot on. Abbott’s hard work is yet to begin. He has to match his often conflicting rhetoric with policy and actions while constantly looking behind him. This will be good.

  32. Malcolm Turnbull’s take on Tony as conviction politician extraordinaire.

    [His only redeeming virtue in this remarkable lack of conviction is that every time he announced a new position to me he would preface it with “Mate, mate, I know I am a bit of a weather vane on this, but]

    Tony “the weather vane” Abbot. Blowing which ever way the wind is…

  33. [e.g., clean AND green, but without the BIG TAX”. He is very much an ends justifies the means sort of fellow.]
    But the problem is that is unbelievable. Voters aren’t stupid, they understand that to lower carbon emissions someone must pay for relatively more expensive low carbon, or carbon free technologies.
    [No honeymoon for Abbott as far as Turnbull is concerned. My tip: Turnbull will be Oppo Leader come election day.]
    Turnbull has 3 months to convince all the pro CPRS front benchers to resign on the first day of parliament. The reason could be that they no longer have confidence in their leader’s policy. 😀

  35. More Turnbull

    [Now politics is about conviction and a commitment to carry out those convictions. The Liberal Party is currently led by people whose conviction on climate change is that it is “crap” and you don’t need to do anything about it. Any policy that is announced will simply be a con, an environmental figleaf to cover a determination to do nothing. After all, as Nick Minchin observed, in his view the majority of the Party Room do not believe in human caused global warming at all. I disagree with that assessment, but many people in the community will be excused for thinking the leadership ballot proved him right.

    Remember Nick Minchin’s defense of the Howard Government’s ETS was that the Government was panicked by the polls and therefore didn’t really mean it.

    Tony himself has, in just four or five months, publicly advocated the blocking of the ETS, the passing of the ETS, the amending of the ETS and, if the amendments were satisfactory, passing it, and now the blocking of it.

    His only redeeming virtue in this remarkable lack of conviction is that every time he announced a new position to me he would preface it with “Mate, mate, I know I am a bit of a weather vane on this, but…..”]

    Dear me. This makes Latham look like Little Miss Muffet. Turnbull is writing Labor’s campaign ads for us!

  36. All those rednecks and Rudd haters who listen to talkback radio will be expecting Abbott to deny CC (it’s bullshit to them) and not have a policy at all. That’s what they have been led to believe isn’t it?
    The shock jocks have been telling them they won’t be slugged with a tax under Abbott and Joyce so what happens when Abbott brings out his policy and Labor do the costings and the rednecks find out Abbott has lied and it will still cost?

  37. [What will sink Abbott is not his social philosophy but the known fact that he wants to bring back WorkChoices, which is he is not clever enough to deny convincingly.]

    Cue Abbott video of his pep talk during 2007: “If workers are not happy with their current working conditions, all they have to do is change jobs.”

    Now, that’s my idea of a gift that keeps on giving.

  38. [All those rednecks and Rudd haters who listen to talkback radio will be expecting Abbott to deny CC ]
    Yeah that’s the hilarious thing on Andrew Bolt’s blog, they are getting stuck into Abbott and Joyce for not having the guts to say that climate change isn’t happening or at least isn’t human induced.

  40. [The shock jocks have been telling them they won’t be slugged with a tax under Abbott and Joyce so what happens when Abbott brings out his policy and Labor do the costings and the rednecks find out Abbott has lied and it will still cost?]

    They’ll pretend they didn’t hear the policy announcement

  41. [There is a major issue of integrity at stake here and Liberals should reflect very deeply on it. We have an Opposition whose current leadership dismisses the Howard Government’s ETS policy as being just a political ploy. We have an Opposition Leader who has in the space of a few months held every possible position on the issue, each one contradicting the position he expressed earlier. And finally we have an Opposition which negotiated amendments to the Rudd Government’s ETS, then reached agreement on those amendments and then, a week later, reneged on the agreement. Many Liberals are rightly dismayed that on this vital issue of climate change we are not simply without a policy, without any prospect of having a credible policy but we are now without integrity. We have given our opponents the irrefutable, undeniable evidence that we cannot be trusted.]

    Are we quite certain this isn’t a fabrication? It’s almost too good to be true.

  43. [ He is very much an ends justifies the means sort of fellow.]
    True to a degree.

    regarding the 40%, I see the thinking behind that and to a large extent it is how Tony picks the battles.

    there is a touch of howie about him.

  45. The Finnigans

    The only area in Higgins that could be considered poor would be the Hawksburn Central booth area where there is a large public housing commission block. places like Alamain and Chadstone tend to be poorer middle class but as suburbs like Mavern have beconme very expensive to buy into suburbs like Burwood and Chadstone now are more middle income.

  47. Turnbull: We have an Opposition whose current leadership dismisses the Howard Government’s ETS policy as being just a political ploy.

    That’s pretty damaging if people believe it and the ALP gets it across effectively in the election campaign. It can be used to dismiss any opposition policy as a political ploy, not just whatever they come up with on climate change.

  49. The Higgins property market is interesting, Higgins has several suburbs with Million dollar mediums and the bottom of the Flat market is about $400,000

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