| HIGGINS | ||||
| # | % | SWING | 2PP | |
| O’Dwyer (LIB) | 34764 | 54.4% | 0.2% | 59.6% |
| Hamilton (GRN) | 20778 | 32.5% | 22.2% | 40.4% |
| Australian Sex Party | 2084 | 3.3% | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 311 | 0.5% | ||
| Australian Democrats | 1455 | 2.3% | 1.1% | |
| One Nation | 199 | 0.3% | ||
| Democratic Labor Party | 2452 | 3.8% | ||
| Independents | 1828 | 2.9% | ||
| TOTAL | 63871 | |||
| COUNTED: | 72.5% | |||
| BOOTHS (OF 38): | 38 | |||
| BRADFIELD | ||||
| # | % | SWING | 2PP | |
| Fletcher (LIB) | 39159 | 56.3% | -3.2% | 63.8% |
| Gemmell (GRN) | 17608 | 25.3% | 14.4% | 36.2% |
| Democratic Labor Party | 1477 | 2.1% | ||
| Australian Sex Party | 2222 | 3.2% | ||
| One Nation | 450 | 0.6% | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 561 | 0.8% | ||
| CCC | 702 | 1.0% | ||
| ENE | 719 | 1.0% | ||
| Independents/CDP | 6646 | 9.6% | ||
| TOTAL | 69544 | |||
| COUNTED: | 73.1% | |||
| BOOTHS (OF 40): | 40 | |||
Tuesday. 3726 postals from Bradfield, massively favouring the Liberals (75.4-24.6 on 2PP).
Sunday (9pm). Turnout on ordinary votes was 88.8% of the 2007 election in Higgins and 95.9% in Bradfield, compared with 89.3% at the Mayo by-election, 93.2% in Lyne and 89.4% in Gippsland. So it was actually quite high in Bradfield and only slightly below par in Higgins. Part of the reason in Higgins might be that it’s not a growth area. We could equally get a high number of pre-polls and postals bringing the number closer to average. I suspect we’ve seen half the pre-polls counted so far (the rest should come in quite quickly) and a third of the postals (which should dribble in over the next week).
Sunday (7.30pm). 2938 postals from Higgins added. Error in my Bradfield table corrected.
Sunday (4.30pm). 5841 pre-polls from Higgins and 3765 from Bradfield added. These have been particularly strong for Kelly O’Dwyer, increasing her two-party margin from 8.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent. Special hospital team (about 500 votes) also added from Bradfield; not yet available from Higgins.
Sunday (early). The AEC has seen fit to publish booth results, so too late to be any use, I hereby reinstate the table. Also, here’s a revised version of my regional Higgins breakdown. I’ve abolished the distinction between the “pink-green” area of Prahran-Windsor and “red” Carnegie – notwithstanding that there’s some distance between the two, the figures were near identical. The other distinction is between “deep blue” Toorak-Kooyong and the “light blue” bulk of the electorate.
| LIB | CHANGE | GRN | LIB 2PP | SWING | |
| Light Blue | 52.76% | -1.2% | 24.4% | 58.5% | 1.1% |
| Deep Blue | 61.13% | -2.9% | 19.8% | 65.3% | -0.7% |
| Marginal | 41.03% | 2.1% | 27.9% | 48.6% | 6.8% |
And here’s the Bradfield breakdown, the “marginal” area being what I described previously as “pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby”.
| LIB | CHANGE | GRN | LIB 2PP | SWING | |
| Deep Blue | 58.0% | -5.6% | 25.2% | 66.0% | -1.7% |
| Marginal | 48.4% | 0.2% | 28.9% | 57.1% | 4.1% |
The general impression is that while the Greens absorbed most of the missing Labor vote across the board, some of it leaked either to the Liberals or to other minor parties (the DLP in particular polled 6.6 per cent in the marginal areas of Higgins, and scored double the vote in the marginal areas of Bradfield compared with the rest of the electorate) and thence to the Liberals as preferences. This counterbalanced a fall in the Liberal primary vote in the deep blue areas of both electorates, which proved nowhere near the magnitude required to put them in danger. It’s interesting to note that this fall was lower in Higgins than in Bradfield, which it’s tempting to put down to resistance to Clive Hamilton among those at the highest end of the income scale.
9.20pm. I’ve performed a similar exercise in Bradfield. There are marginal pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby. These areas swung to the Liberals 4.7 per cent in two-party terms. However, the wealthy Liberal heart of the electorate, from Killara north through St Ives, swung 5.1 per cent to the Greens.
8.40pm. Psephos in comments notes the trend detectable from Higgins in the table below (which I’m continuing to update as the last few booths come in) is reflected in Bradfield: “Hornsby Central, Labor’s best booth in the seat: Liberal primary vote up 5.9%.”
8.20pm. I’ll keep that coming in tabular form. “Light blue” zone is the bulk of the electorate; “deep blue” the riverfront from South Yarra through Toorak to Kooyong; “pink-green” Prahran/Windsor; “red” the Carnegie area.
| LIB 2PP SWING | BOOTHS REPORTING | |
| Light blue zone | 0.9% | 20 out of 21 |
| Deep blue zone | -0.8% | 6 out of 6 |
| Pink-green zone | 6.3% | 6 out of 6 |
| Red zone | 7.1% | 3 out of 3 |
8.02pm. While I’ve been quiet, I’ve been calculating the Higgins booth results provided by Antony into four zones. While this has been happening the Liberal-Greens margin has blown out to 9 per cent. All four zones have swung to the Liberals: the normally Labor-voting area in the south-east around Carnegie by 9.3 per cent; posh Toorak/Kooyong has swung 1.7 per cent; pink-green Prahran/Windsor 4.3 per cent; and the middle-Liberal balance, from Armadale to Glen Iris and Camberwell to Malvern, by 1.1 per cent. That’s assuming my calculations are correct, which I can’t state with total confidence.
7.38pm. Twelve booths now in from Higgins, swing steady at 5.4 per cent, Kelly home and hosed. Props though to the 400 or so voters of Toorak West for the short-lived entertainment they provided.
7.32pm. Another booth pushes Liberal two-party lead in Higgins to 5.4 per cent. Antony has abandoned commentary, but if he hadn’t I’m guessing he would be calling it now.
7.30pm. No alarms for the Liberals in Bradfield: projected margin 12 per cent.
7.28pm. Antony nonetheless says Higgins “can’t be called yet”.
7.27pm. Antony Green has eight booths in from Higgins and 9.2 per cent counted – O’Dwyer with an almost certainly sufficient 4.8 per cent two-party lead.
7.22pm. Possum, who took about 10 seconds to call the US election for Obama, says on Twitter: “Shorter Higgins – Greens went well with wealthy Lib voters but not so good with middle income Libs. Failed with ALP voters. game over”.
7.19pm. I’ve abandoned the table – it is not possible to keep up with the furious number crunching I needed to do to keep track as each new booth reported. Head to the ABC for elucidation on what’s happening.
7.15pm. That Toorak West result looking quirkier after Gardiner booth reports, but it’s still close. Having trouble keeping up due to AEC failure to report individual booths, so double check anything you see above.
7.13pm. Better result for Liberals in Higgins from Kooyong Park.
7.05pm. Both the booths have 2PP votes in, so my 2PP figures are now less speculative.
7.02pm. First Higgins booth is super wealthy, super Liberal Toorak West, and it shows a very interesting plunge in the Liberal vote.
6.49pm. Unless I’m mistaken – please let it be so – the AEC are not providing individual polling booth figures, which means I might as well pack up and go home.
6.46pm. Lady Davidson Hospital booth in from Bradfield – only 293 votes, but no evidence of a remarkable result.
6.36pm. Still nothing. These are urban electorates so there are no small booths that report quickly; the large number of candidates, particularly in Bradfield, might also be slowing things down.
6.20pm. Until I get notional 2PP counts, my 2PP will be based on the following preference estimates:
HIGGINS: ASP 80-20 to Greens; LDP 80-20 to Liberal; Dems 70-30 to Greens; ONP and DLP 80-20 to Liberal; all others 55-45 to Liberal.
BRADFIELD: DLP 80-20 to Liberal; ASP 80-20 to Greens; ONP and LDP 80-20 to Liberal; CCC and ENE 50-50; all others 75-25 to Liberal.
# and % primary vote figures are raw; primary vote swing and 2PP figures are based on booth matching.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections. First figures should be in in about 20 minutes.
Abbott is going to have to come up with something better than “Just say no” as a policy on the ETS and everything else.
And then Rudd et al will flay him. The chance of Abbott not imploding are remote.
There is an inherent stupidity in joyce’s argument- that is Rudd, a very experienced performer, who saw off hero Howard and has had record poll ratings, would want to spend a huge amount of money for no reason?? Pull the other one
Yes Diogene, especially after other countries put in place their ETSs
Rudd has spoken to Keneally now.
[Ms Keneally said Mr Rudd had not repeated his public comments in which he urged the NSW Government to “get its act together”.]
I saw somewhere that Rudd was mellowing to the reprobates in the NSW Govt a few weeks ago and started making noises about letting them back in the tent.
And then they dumped the leader he had supported at that “meeting of the minds”, hence his displeasure.
Andrew
[Yes Diogene, especially after other countries put in place their ETSs]
I doubt that Abbott will budge even when we are the last country with the most minimalistic ETS. He’ll play the “defector” in a Prisoner’s Dilemma.
Until, as TP says, he is FORCED to change his position when trade sanctions are threatened.
Abbott is making Howard’s “back of the envelope” policy stances look positively statesman like!
He wants to debate Rudd on climate change policy without even having a policy. Strap yourselves in, it’s going to be one hell of a ride! 😉
[Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has dismissed a challenge for a series of public debates over climate change, saying the Federal Opposition needs to have a policy first.
Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says he wants the debates over the proposed emissions trading scheme, before the Government reintroduces the legislation in February.
But Mr Rudd says Mr Abbott should instead focus his efforts on developing a Coalition policy.
“Mr Howard had a policy on climate change, Mr Turnbull had a policy on climate change – it was called an emissions trading scheme,” he said.
“My Abbott – the current leader of the Liberal Party – does not have any policy on climate change.”
“I’d suggest the Leader of the Opposition calms down, puts in the hard yards and actually develops a policy.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/06/2763256.htm?section=justin
TP – this is an interesting read on Abbott’s plans for winning Govt.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/abbott-keen-to-lead-us-back-to-a-1950s-style-welfare-state/story-e6frg6zo-1225807117569
and here’s Lenore Taylor’s piece re the cost of Abbott and Hunt proposal re CC
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/emissions-reduction-will-cost-even-under-the-liberals/story-e6frg7go-1225807117529
[These ideas will appeal to economic reformers in the Rudd ministry but Abbott will not threaten Labor’s vote in inner-city seats, at least their preferences after they vote Green, and in the urban fringe. There are no words of comfort for gay activists or environmentalists in Battlelines, or much mention of the permanently unemployed. And there is nothing in the book to reassure women who are unsettled by his opinions on no-fault divorce and abortion.
But there is much that will appeal to people who loved the way Howard handed out cash to people with conventional lives. And that is who Abbott wants to reach.
Abbott will be hard pressed to sell his plans to simultaneously take us back to the values of the 50s via welfare spending and into the future with federal reforms. He acknowledges this in Battlelines, saying: “I expect that the existing team will lead the party to the next election” and the book is “not a job application”. It is now.]
BH, i know this is a cliche. But Battlelines will go down, like Hewson’s Fightback, as the longest political suicide note ever written.
I notice some comments that appear to assume that fission power generation is a sensible means of reducing carbon emissions.
However, that underlying assumption has not been adequately tested.
For example, the Australian media doesn’t report any of the very significant cost, construction and safety issues associated with the so-called third generation evolutionary power reactors.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8379274.stm
Nor do we hear anything at all about the increasing prospect of harnessing fusion power within a few decades – a development that logically heralds the end of the fission age.
http://www.iter.org/default.aspx
https://lasers.llnl.gov/
Finns – I agree with you. I printed off that OO article for my OH – Abbott will truly take us back to the divisive days of the Howard Govt. if he follows Battlelines. Of course John Howard will love it.
And I hope Kev is patient and ‘does him slowly’. I loved the piece that Scorpio put up earlier. Kev simply says that he, Howard and Turnbull had a plan called the ETS but where’s your Tone. Bewdifull!!
BTW – does any know what NZ set as their cap with their ETS last week.
Abbott is a god botherer. Rudd is a god botherer. Keneally is a god botherer. The NSW Liberals are said to be controlled by god botherers.
Jesus Christ, fair dinkum, fair suck of the sav – is there no escape from the god botherers.
[If you’ve seen Rudd work a room or a community cabinet you’ll soon see he is a populist.]
And his rapport with the Kids at the launch of ABC3
Peter Young
I have high hopes that Julia Gillard is an atheist. And I can’t recall Mike Rann ever talking about religion.
Battlelines is nothing but a lets-go-back-to-Howard plea. The voters wont be that stupid. Given that Abbott is such a conviction politician, shouldnt no action on climate change be his policy??
[and here’s Lenore Taylor’s piece re the cost of Abbott and Hunt proposal re CC]
Poor Greg Hunt, forced to realise just what selling your soul really feels like.
[Nor do we hear anything at all about the increasing prospect of harnessing fusion power within a few decades – a development that logically heralds the end of the fission age.]
That’s because the prospect has been within a few decades for the last 60 years and is likely to remain so for the next 60 years. Gen IV fission reactors are more likely to be developed more quickly if research funds for development are made available.
[Given that Abbott is such a conviction politician]
That has to be the biggest piece of bull going around at them moment. And that so many journos have used the line, demonstrates the mendacity of much of the Australian media.
Peter Young – Rudd’s an Anglican God Botherer – there’s a difference. He can’t escape any fib he tells but Abbott can lie like a pig in muck today – confess it tomorrow – feel good about himself and go out and do it all again the next day.
So the comment Abbott made about lies and the Iraq Ward at Bob Ellis’ book launch will come back to haunt him. Kev should have that comment permanently etched on the forehead because it says it all about Abbott.
[Turnbull – Latham Mark 1
Abbott – Latham Mark 2]
Latham Mark 2 is Mark 1 on acid.
If Abbott is a “conviction politician”, surely his platform will be anti-abortion, anti-contraception, anti-stem cell etc etc.
But he’s ruled out those convictions.
Lucy Turnbull knows that the only way for Malcolm to become PM is for Abbott to crash and then Malcolm will charge in as the White Knight to save the Liberals by taking them back to the Centre-Right.
Oh, Lucy also knows that, on paper, Turnbull is now leading Abbott 43-41 plus one informal. So dont expect Lucy to retire back to the kitchen and start knitting. They dont call her Lucy in the Sky with Diamond for nothing.
And what is best to sharpen knives?
Of course Diogenes, its only those convictions that he chooses to hold to, much like Howard
It is simply wrong to suggest that fusion power generation “has been a prospect within a few decades for the last 60 years and is likely to remain so for the next 60 years.”
Check the links I provided – especially http://www.iter.org/default.aspx.
Finns, of course the Turnbulls arent finished yet, but surely they would wait til after the election?? Turnbull made the mistake of going too early once before
1) The Australian Sex Party did not poll very well at the Kissing Point booth.
2) BH – And Abbott can avail himself of “metal reservation” as described in the now infamous Murphy Report as “a concept developed and much discussed over the centuries [by the RCC], which permits a church man knowingly to convey a misleading impression to another person without being guilty of lying”.
Interestingly there is now discussion in Ireland as to whether Roman Catholics owe their first allegiance to their country or their religion. In the past it appears that many have considered the latter to have priority. It has been suggested that members of the Dail and public servants be required to sign a declaration to the effect that they will uphold civil law before canon law. Given that Abbott was “caught out” getting riding instructions from Pell in the run up to the 2004 Federal Election he should be asked about these things.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm
Counting has started again, at least for Bradfield. The Libs have gone from a 2CP of 63.56 to 63.80 since last night.
How do you give someone who says “climate change is crap”, “no, I’m really a believer” with a ‘conviction politician’ tag?
Andrew, Lucy Turnbull will ensure that Abbott crashes at the next DD election in August 09.
Albert Ross
Exactly, spot on.
That’s why Kristina Keneally is such a dangerous bit of gear for NSW. That plus the fact she is not the puppet of Obeid or Tripodi (or so she says).
[That’s why Kristina Keneally is such a dangerous bit of gear for NSW. That plus the fact she is not the puppet of Obeid or Tripodi (or so she says).]
Tell me again why being a “god botherer” and being a leader is bad or dangerous?
Almost 1,000 posts in under 24 hours?? This place is way too busy for any of us to be leading productive lives!!
[Abbott is a god botherer. Rudd is a god botherer. Keneally is a god botherer. The NSW Liberals are said to be controlled by god botherers.
Jesus Christ, fair dinkum, fair suck of the sav – is there no escape from the god botherers.]
I should have included this masterly piece of work too Peter to 980.
William said: [quote]Sunday. The AEC has seen fit to publish booth results, so too late to be any use, I hereby reinstate the table.”[/quote]
So, where’s the table?
Gary Bruce.
In answer to 980 and 982, hae a look at 975 and 968.
In addition, how can anyone take seriously a person who believes that a fairy tale is the “truth”.
Also, how do you quote on this board?
Turnbull wants to wait out another 4 years on the chance of being leader?
[so i wonder whether the chap from the AFR who critcised Rudd’s scheme on Insiders will now support a costlier scheme that will achieve less??]
Toohey was just objecting to the amount of compensation that electricity generators will receive. He didn’t say that all ETSs are the wrong approach.
GB,
There are god botherers and there are god botherers. The ones who are of concern are those like “W” – who claims to have had direct instructions from his god. A politician’s private beliefs are just that: private. It’s when personal religious beliefs rather than rational thought and scientific evidence are employed to make (or influence) judgements and decisions which affect whole a whole community – which does not (necessarily) share those beliefs – that people become concerned.
[And then Rudd et al will flay him. The chance of Abbott not imploding are remote.]
And, as Paul Kelly pointed out on Insiders, what if the U.S. Senate passes a cap and trade scheme early next year? If that happens Abbott will be campaigning against the policy of the 2nd biggest polluter.
[A politician’s private beliefs are just that: private. It’s when personal religious beliefs rather than rational thought and scientific evidence are employed to make (or influence) judgements and decisions which affect whole a whole community]
There is no scientific evidence that humans have souls, but that didn’t stop Abbott from opposing human stem cell research on the grounds that an embryo is morally the same as an adult.
@ 988 – Good comments, A Good Lurk & Peter Young
The very fact that a politician believes in an ignorant superstition has me on guard, even if it appears to be kept ‘private’. Can those in the thrall of superstition stop it colouring all their thought processes and decision-making?
Higgins Lib 2CP has gone from 57.57% to 58.27% since last night.
[Also, how do you quote on this board?]
Daniel B, enclose the text you want to quote in square brackets
Sowson – 990.
Good point.
Kristina Keneally voted against embroynic stem cell research in the NSW parliament in 2007 – based on her Catholic doctrinaire beliefs.
[that didn’t stop Abbott from opposing human stem cell research on the grounds that an embryo is morally the same as an adult.]
An prime example of the phenomenon – a politician making decisions based on his own personal field of make-believe.
Yes bob, in the cold light of day, the Greens did even worse than it appeared they had done last night.
I didn’t notice until William pointed it out that many Labor voters used the DLP as a surrogate Labor vote, then preferenced the Liberal over the Green. Good tactical thinking there! The plain fact is that the Greens have zero appeal to lower income voters. They are an upper-income-fringe party and they can’t escape from their inner city “green ghetto.”
Whilst there are no direct federal implications i got to thinking there is actually one, when i look at booths like Hawksburn Central and Prahran/Winsor/South Yarra i see similar booth types to those found in suburbs like Richmond, this lead me to think Lindsay Tanner now looks a little more confortable.
[Toohey was just objecting to the amount of compensation that electricity generators will receive. He didn’t say that all ETSs are the wrong approach.]
What I found interesting was that he was starting to get quite wound up about it!
His face started turning red, his hands were shaking quite noticeably and he was really giving it to Rudd’s ETS even with amendments!
Toohey wouldn’t by any chance have been campaigning for the Liberals during his stint on Insiders, would he? 😉
It was what I took from the segment! IMO only! 😉
[ he was really giving it to Rudd’s ETS even with amendments!]
Yes, that’s because many people think the amendments make the scheme even worse.
From what i can see i can only find three booths where the Greens look like scoring a higher primary vote than the ALP in 2007
Camberwell Middle and Malvern Lower andmaybe a booth or two in Prahran