Higgins and Bradfield by-elections live

HIGGINS
# % SWING 2PP
O’Dwyer (LIB) 34764 54.4% 0.2% 59.6%
Hamilton (GRN) 20778 32.5% 22.2% 40.4%
Australian Sex Party 2084 3.3%
Liberal Democrats 311 0.5%
Australian Democrats 1455 2.3% 1.1%
One Nation 199 0.3%
Democratic Labor Party 2452 3.8%
Independents 1828 2.9%
TOTAL 63871
COUNTED: 72.5%
BOOTHS (OF 38): 38
BRADFIELD
# % SWING 2PP
Fletcher (LIB) 39159 56.3% -3.2% 63.8%
Gemmell (GRN) 17608 25.3% 14.4% 36.2%
Democratic Labor Party 1477 2.1%
Australian Sex Party 2222 3.2%
One Nation 450 0.6%
Liberal Democrats 561 0.8%
CCC 702 1.0%
ENE 719 1.0%
Independents/CDP 6646 9.6%
TOTAL 69544
COUNTED: 73.1%
BOOTHS (OF 40): 40

Tuesday. 3726 postals from Bradfield, massively favouring the Liberals (75.4-24.6 on 2PP).

Sunday (9pm). Turnout on ordinary votes was 88.8% of the 2007 election in Higgins and 95.9% in Bradfield, compared with 89.3% at the Mayo by-election, 93.2% in Lyne and 89.4% in Gippsland. So it was actually quite high in Bradfield and only slightly below par in Higgins. Part of the reason in Higgins might be that it’s not a growth area. We could equally get a high number of pre-polls and postals bringing the number closer to average. I suspect we’ve seen half the pre-polls counted so far (the rest should come in quite quickly) and a third of the postals (which should dribble in over the next week).

Sunday (7.30pm). 2938 postals from Higgins added. Error in my Bradfield table corrected.

Sunday (4.30pm). 5841 pre-polls from Higgins and 3765 from Bradfield added. These have been particularly strong for Kelly O’Dwyer, increasing her two-party margin from 8.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent. Special hospital team (about 500 votes) also added from Bradfield; not yet available from Higgins.

Sunday (early). The AEC has seen fit to publish booth results, so too late to be any use, I hereby reinstate the table. Also, here’s a revised version of my regional Higgins breakdown. I’ve abolished the distinction between the “pink-green” area of Prahran-Windsor and “red” Carnegie – notwithstanding that there’s some distance between the two, the figures were near identical. The other distinction is between “deep blue” Toorak-Kooyong and the “light blue” bulk of the electorate.

LIB CHANGE GRN LIB 2PP SWING
Light Blue 52.76% -1.2% 24.4% 58.5% 1.1%
Deep Blue 61.13% -2.9% 19.8% 65.3% -0.7%
Marginal 41.03% 2.1% 27.9% 48.6% 6.8%

And here’s the Bradfield breakdown, the “marginal” area being what I described previously as “pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby”.

LIB CHANGE GRN LIB 2PP SWING
Deep Blue 58.0% -5.6% 25.2% 66.0% -1.7%
Marginal 48.4% 0.2% 28.9% 57.1% 4.1%

The general impression is that while the Greens absorbed most of the missing Labor vote across the board, some of it leaked either to the Liberals or to other minor parties (the DLP in particular polled 6.6 per cent in the marginal areas of Higgins, and scored double the vote in the marginal areas of Bradfield compared with the rest of the electorate) and thence to the Liberals as preferences. This counterbalanced a fall in the Liberal primary vote in the deep blue areas of both electorates, which proved nowhere near the magnitude required to put them in danger. It’s interesting to note that this fall was lower in Higgins than in Bradfield, which it’s tempting to put down to resistance to Clive Hamilton among those at the highest end of the income scale.

9.20pm. I’ve performed a similar exercise in Bradfield. There are marginal pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby. These areas swung to the Liberals 4.7 per cent in two-party terms. However, the wealthy Liberal heart of the electorate, from Killara north through St Ives, swung 5.1 per cent to the Greens.

8.40pm. Psephos in comments notes the trend detectable from Higgins in the table below (which I’m continuing to update as the last few booths come in) is reflected in Bradfield: “Hornsby Central, Labor’s best booth in the seat: Liberal primary vote up 5.9%.”

8.20pm. I’ll keep that coming in tabular form. “Light blue” zone is the bulk of the electorate; “deep blue” the riverfront from South Yarra through Toorak to Kooyong; “pink-green” Prahran/Windsor; “red” the Carnegie area.

LIB 2PP SWING BOOTHS REPORTING
Light blue zone 0.9% 20 out of 21
Deep blue zone -0.8% 6 out of 6
Pink-green zone 6.3% 6 out of 6
Red zone 7.1% 3 out of 3

8.02pm. While I’ve been quiet, I’ve been calculating the Higgins booth results provided by Antony into four zones. While this has been happening the Liberal-Greens margin has blown out to 9 per cent. All four zones have swung to the Liberals: the normally Labor-voting area in the south-east around Carnegie by 9.3 per cent; posh Toorak/Kooyong has swung 1.7 per cent; pink-green Prahran/Windsor 4.3 per cent; and the middle-Liberal balance, from Armadale to Glen Iris and Camberwell to Malvern, by 1.1 per cent. That’s assuming my calculations are correct, which I can’t state with total confidence.

7.38pm. Twelve booths now in from Higgins, swing steady at 5.4 per cent, Kelly home and hosed. Props though to the 400 or so voters of Toorak West for the short-lived entertainment they provided.

7.32pm. Another booth pushes Liberal two-party lead in Higgins to 5.4 per cent. Antony has abandoned commentary, but if he hadn’t I’m guessing he would be calling it now.

7.30pm. No alarms for the Liberals in Bradfield: projected margin 12 per cent.

7.28pm. Antony nonetheless says Higgins “can’t be called yet”.

7.27pm. Antony Green has eight booths in from Higgins and 9.2 per cent counted – O’Dwyer with an almost certainly sufficient 4.8 per cent two-party lead.

7.22pm. Possum, who took about 10 seconds to call the US election for Obama, says on Twitter: “Shorter Higgins – Greens went well with wealthy Lib voters but not so good with middle income Libs. Failed with ALP voters. game over”.

7.19pm. I’ve abandoned the table – it is not possible to keep up with the furious number crunching I needed to do to keep track as each new booth reported. Head to the ABC for elucidation on what’s happening.

7.15pm. That Toorak West result looking quirkier after Gardiner booth reports, but it’s still close. Having trouble keeping up due to AEC failure to report individual booths, so double check anything you see above.

7.13pm. Better result for Liberals in Higgins from Kooyong Park.

7.05pm. Both the booths have 2PP votes in, so my 2PP figures are now less speculative.

7.02pm. First Higgins booth is super wealthy, super Liberal Toorak West, and it shows a very interesting plunge in the Liberal vote.

6.49pm. Unless I’m mistaken – please let it be so – the AEC are not providing individual polling booth figures, which means I might as well pack up and go home.

6.46pm. Lady Davidson Hospital booth in from Bradfield – only 293 votes, but no evidence of a remarkable result.

6.36pm. Still nothing. These are urban electorates so there are no small booths that report quickly; the large number of candidates, particularly in Bradfield, might also be slowing things down.

6.20pm. Until I get notional 2PP counts, my 2PP will be based on the following preference estimates:

HIGGINS: ASP 80-20 to Greens; LDP 80-20 to Liberal; Dems 70-30 to Greens; ONP and DLP 80-20 to Liberal; all others 55-45 to Liberal.

BRADFIELD: DLP 80-20 to Liberal; ASP 80-20 to Greens; ONP and LDP 80-20 to Liberal; CCC and ENE 50-50; all others 75-25 to Liberal.

# and % primary vote figures are raw; primary vote swing and 2PP figures are based on booth matching.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections. First figures should be in in about 20 minutes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,328 comments on “Higgins and Bradfield by-elections live”

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  1. Showson -990 and mine 994.

    I should have added:
    In 2007 when embryonic stem cell reseach was before the NSW Parliament Cardinal Pell issued a veiled threat that Catholic MP’s would not be served communion if they voted in favour of the bill.
    Kristina Keneally voted against it.
    However, she is not the puppet of anyone (or so she says).

  2. I thought this might amuse you fellow bludgers on a lazy Sunday afternoon (in the summer time).

    I suspect there will be a Newspoll out this week, possibly tomorrow, if the Oz gets itchy fingers.

    There will be all sorts looking for a bounce, or a slump, or a bouncing slump, or slumping bounce.

    As opposed to bounces, I’d like to focus on satisfaction rates, because you never get a second chance to make a first impression. I find the first poll here can be quite helpful in understanding the electorate’s view of the leader.

    Perhaps you’d like to hazard a guess as to what Abbott’s figures will be.

    Opposition Leaders’ first satisfaction polls.

    The figures will run satisified, dissatisfied, uncommitted.

    You’ll note all the leaders have a high uncommitted number, which makes sense, as the voters are yet to fully to see the person in action as leader, even if they’ve known them well.

    Peacock ’89 – 22, 50, 28

    Hewson ’90 – 33, 15, 52

    Downer ’94 – 31, 12, 57

    Howard ’95 – 45, 23, 32

    Beazley ’96 – 38, 17, 45

    Crean ’01 – 30, 25, 45

    Latham ’03 – 32, 17, 51

    Beazley ’05 – 40, 22, 38

    Rudd ’06 – 41, 10, 49

    Nelson ’08 – 36, 19, 45

    Turnbull ’08 – 50, 25, 25

    A couple of interesting things to note:

    Peacock’s figures were terrible. They’d been there and done that.

    Howard’s satisfaction was a strong 45, for someone who’d been around and had been discarded, that’s a pretty good number.

    Crean was already in trouble with a 30 to 25 satisfied to dissatisfied.

    Rudd had a very low 10 as dissatisfaction, which goes part of the way to explaining why his satisafcation numbers continue to remain high, he’s inoffensive.

    Turnbull had an extraordinary 50 satisfaction. If ever a political brand name has been trashed, it’s this one.

    Turnbull’s perceptions were good, people responded to him and he would made the Liberal party a powerful competitive force for the centre ground – except for one flaw, Turnbull is nuts!

    So what are your selections for Abbott’s numbers?

    (for those who might want a little help look here, for those who don’t want any help, look away now. I’ll write the numbers out so an inadvertent glimpse won’t contaminate your guess – Morgan’s phone poll gave Abbott – thirty four, twenty seven, thirty nine)

  3. Psephos – 996
    [I didn’t notice until William pointed it out that many Labor voters used the DLP as a surrogate Labor vote, then preferenced the Liberal over the Green.]

    How then was it that on a 2 party preferred basis (vs Liberal) the Greens did better than the ALP did in 2007 ?

  4. This is a REAL Climax Change:

    [Dec 6, 2009, Free sex to UN participants – COPENHAGEN – PROSTITUTES of a Danish sex workers association will offer their services for free to delegates of the UN climate summit in Copenhagen, an association official told AFP on Saturday.

    Susanne Moeller said the move was meant to protest an anti-prostitution initiative undertaken by Copenhagen city hall.

    The city, host of the December 7-18 UN climate summit, distributed postcards in Copenhagen’s hotels that said ‘Be sustainable: Don’t buy sex.’

    It also sent letters to hotel managers inviting them to take measures to avoid prostitutes meeting clients in their establishments. The prostitutes, whose work is not illegal in Denmark, promptly reacted to the move.

    ‘All delegates who come to Copenhagen for the world climate summit will be able to use the postcards for payment after making a request on our website,’ Ms Moeller, of the Danish association for the defense of sex workers, said.

    ‘We do not expect many delegates (to make use of the offer), but we want to protest what we consider discrimination,’ Ms Moeller said, adding the offer was good for the duration of the climate talks. — AFP]

  5. My newspoll figs are, Abbott 40-20-40, he needs a miss world balanced number we all are much larger these days or so we are told. The OG(opp gazette) needs to record a boost and he has not had time to p*** many new people off who tend do give the benefit of the doubt initially.

  6. Peter i susgest you recheck O’Dwyer TPP margin in Higgins is higher thanh it was at the 2007 election against the ALP..

  7. mexicanbeemer – 1006

    Maybe they are, but according to this website the Liberal 2 party preferred vote was down 0.9% in Higgins.

  8. Peter with no disrespect to William but the AEC has continued counting and those numbers up the top of the page are last nights numbers not today’s numbers.

  9. Australia 4 – Germany 3 after trailing 1-3 in the World Cup Final match.

    …………………………….. oh Hockey .. sign of thing to come in 2010?

  10. [I thought this might amuse you fellow bludgers on a lazy Sunday afternoon (in the summer time).]

    Aristotle, you are confusing your Kinks with your Small Faces – a common error.

  11. [Aristotle, you are confusing your Kinks with your Small Faces – a common error.]

    William, no, you are confused with Mungo Jerry 😛

  12. mexicanbeamer -1011
    I see your point. I will not rely on anything on here and instead head directly to the AEC as my source of information

  13. Not so fast, Peter – I have updated my tables with today’s pre-poll counts. Although my figures might be subtly incorrect if the AEC has added re-checked booth results, which I don’t have time to look into right now.

  14. Finns: I heard Zara Stardust being interviewed on 2GB last night! She’s quite articulate, I hope this isn’t the last election she participates in! 😉

  15. I know a few here at PB have been excited by the ASP candidates. However, once again the voters have proven that they won’t vote for mere promises of being done over. They always vote for the proven commodity.

    Why vote for pretend politicians when the real ones deliver the same effect?

  16. [Finns: I heard Zara Stardust being interviewed on 2GB last night! She’s quite articulate, I hope this isn’t the last election she participates in!]
    Yeah, but she is doing a Ph.D. in cultural studies, that is almost as bad as a Ph.D. in theology.

  17. At the risk of upsetting Bob and the other Greens on Poll Bludger, I’d argue that their results yesterday in both seats were rather ho hum, at best! Basically all both candidates did was suck up what would have otherwise been the Labor vote.
    I see no evidence of a bunch of Liberals being converted to the cause of the Greens.

  18. [Basically all both candidates did was suck up what would have otherwise been the Labor vote.]
    They didn’t even manage to do that in Higgins.

  19. GG

    I thought a few more anti-Greens Labor voters (I believe they exist but I haven’t met any 😉 ) would have voted for the ASP instead of voting Liberal. Looks like they mainly chose to stay at home instead.

  20. [They didn’t even manage to do that in Higgins.]

    True, and Clive Hamilton was the wrong person to run for the Greens in that seat.

  21. Here are the Higgins booths showing the Liberal 2CV in 2007 and 2009, and the change between the two.

    Toorak 75.9 75.9 00.0
    Malvern Lower 75.4 71.0 -04.4
    Toorak West 74.9 53.7 -21.2
    Kooyong Park 73.9 67.2 -06.7
    Darling 65.3 61.7 -03.6
    Toorak Central 64.6 67.9 +03.3
    Malvern 63.1 60.8 -02.3
    Armadale 60.7 60.1 -00.6
    Camberwell South 60.3 58.8 -01.5
    Glen Iris 60.2 60.3 +00.1
    Camberwell Middle 59.9 65.2 +05.3
    Ferndale 59.0 59.5 +00.5
    Camberwell 58.5 57.0 -01.5
    Hawksburn 58.4 59.0 +00.6
    Malvern South 58.4 59.8 +01.4
    Carnegie North 56.4 60.0 +03.6
    Malvern Central 56.3 57.4 +01.1
    South Yarra Central 54.9 53.5 -01.4
    Malvern East 54.5 57.5 +03.0
    Burwood 54.1 56.6 +02.5
    Gardiner 53.8 58.1 +04.3
    Malvern West 52.3 55.2 +02.9
    Burwood West 51.9 50.5 -01.4
    Glen Iris South 51.8 52.4 +00.6
    Ashburton 51.4 54.1 +02.7
    Chadstone 50.0 56.8 +06.8
    ————————-
    Orrong 47.6 50.9 +03.3
    Hawksburn Central 47.0 60.3 +13.3
    Murrumbeena 46.4 50.9 +04.5
    South Yarra 44.0 44.7 +00.7
    Alamein 41.1 52.3 +11.2
    Prahran East 41.1 47.8 +06.7
    Carnegie Upper 39.3 44.3 +05.0
    Hughesdale North 38.7 53.6 +14.9
    Prahran 37.5 41.8 +04.3
    Windsor 34.6 42.2 +07.6

    The trend is very clear, although there are a few errant booths like Toorak Central. The stronger the Liberal vote in 2007, the better the Greens did in 2009. The stronger the Labor vote in 2007, the worse the Greens did in 2009.

  22. I’m next door to Bradfield! The boundary between Berowra and Bradfield is just down the road from me!
    So, if I was in Bradfield, I would have voted for the ASP and Finn’s former girlfriend.
    😀

  23. [I thought a few more anti-Greens Labor voters (I believe they exist but I haven’t met any]

    damn you diog, name names!!!!

  24. [Yes bob, in the cold light of day, the Greens did even worse than it appeared they had done last night.]

    Adam, the 2009 Higgins by-election saw the Greens pick up their highest Liberal lower house seat ever.

    Infact – when did the Greens do so well against Labor federally?

    And you have the nerve to call it bad for the Greens. Pffft.

  25. [The trend is very clear, although there are a few errant booths like Toorak Central. The stronger the Liberal vote in 2007, the better the Greens did in 2009. The stronger the Labor vote in 2007, the worse the Greens did in 2009.]
    Well I think that is bad for the Liberals, because if some of them are willing to lodge protest votes for the Greens, then more of them would do so for a good moderate Labor candidate.

  26. GG

    True but the count is about 71% at the moment. It’s normally about 78% the day after so I reckon quite a few didn’t turn up.

  27. [Adam, the 2009 Higgins by-election saw the Greens pick up their highest Liberal lower house seat ever.]

    Really bob, you’ll have to do better than that at a psephological blog.

    2007 Higgins ALP+Green = 41.9%
    2009 Higgins Green = 33.2%
    Voters lost to Greens: 8.7%

  28. Okay ….now I am up to speed after visiting the AEC site.

    In Bradfield in 2007 the Liberal 2pp (vs ALP) was 63.45%. At present in the by-election the Liberal 2pp (vs Green) is 63.86 (up 0.4%).
    In Higgins in 2007 the Liberal 2pp (vs ALP) was 57.04%. At present the Liberal 2pp (vs Green) is 59.57 (up 2.5%).

    On that basis the commentariat has concluded it was a very poor result for the Greens.

  29. Diogs,

    You know me, I tend to wait until the info is in before jumping to conclusions. Otherwise, people might accuse me of being wRong.

  30. Finns

    Forgot to ask you but we’re having a family argument about the pandas. Their names are Wang-Wang and Funi. One school of thought is that Wang-Wang should be pronounced phonetically and the other is that it is pronounced Wong-Wong.

    Can you clarify?

  31. If the Greens are whackaloons and so much of the swinging population only vote Liberal or Labor, the Libs should have had solid swings to them.

    The fact the Greens can pick up a majority of Labor votes proves the only whackaloons are on PB who read from the book of Labor hackery religion.

    12% and 13%

    :kiss:

  32. Yeah Bob the Green Hack this is the best TPP win for the Liberals in Higgins since the 1996 landslide and it is all against the Greens.

  33. [The fact the Greens can pick up a majority of Labor votes proves the only whackaloons are on PB who read from the book of Labor hackery religion.]

    In the absence of a Labor candidate, with compulsory voting, anybody can pick up the majority of the Labor vote against a Liberal. But you needed all the Labor vote, plus a chuck of the Liberal vote, to win the seat. And you didn’t get it. You FAILED. You might have the honesty to acknowledge this rather than giving us this stupid and dishonest spin, which fools no-one.

  34. [In the absence of a Labor candidate, with compulsory voting, anybody can pick up the majority of the Labor vote against a Liberal. But you needed all the Labor vote, plus a chuck of the Liberal vote, to win the seat. And you didn’t get it. You FAILED. ]

    As Labor has in Higgins for 60 years.

    The fact the Greens kept the Liberal 2CP margin as close as it did in the absense of a Labor candidate is testament to their actions in the Senate, as is 12% and 13% :kiss:

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