| HIGGINS | ||||
| # | % | SWING | 2PP | |
| O’Dwyer (LIB) | 34764 | 54.4% | 0.2% | 59.6% |
| Hamilton (GRN) | 20778 | 32.5% | 22.2% | 40.4% |
| Australian Sex Party | 2084 | 3.3% | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 311 | 0.5% | ||
| Australian Democrats | 1455 | 2.3% | 1.1% | |
| One Nation | 199 | 0.3% | ||
| Democratic Labor Party | 2452 | 3.8% | ||
| Independents | 1828 | 2.9% | ||
| TOTAL | 63871 | |||
| COUNTED: | 72.5% | |||
| BOOTHS (OF 38): | 38 | |||
| BRADFIELD | ||||
| # | % | SWING | 2PP | |
| Fletcher (LIB) | 39159 | 56.3% | -3.2% | 63.8% |
| Gemmell (GRN) | 17608 | 25.3% | 14.4% | 36.2% |
| Democratic Labor Party | 1477 | 2.1% | ||
| Australian Sex Party | 2222 | 3.2% | ||
| One Nation | 450 | 0.6% | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 561 | 0.8% | ||
| CCC | 702 | 1.0% | ||
| ENE | 719 | 1.0% | ||
| Independents/CDP | 6646 | 9.6% | ||
| TOTAL | 69544 | |||
| COUNTED: | 73.1% | |||
| BOOTHS (OF 40): | 40 | |||
Tuesday. 3726 postals from Bradfield, massively favouring the Liberals (75.4-24.6 on 2PP).
Sunday (9pm). Turnout on ordinary votes was 88.8% of the 2007 election in Higgins and 95.9% in Bradfield, compared with 89.3% at the Mayo by-election, 93.2% in Lyne and 89.4% in Gippsland. So it was actually quite high in Bradfield and only slightly below par in Higgins. Part of the reason in Higgins might be that it’s not a growth area. We could equally get a high number of pre-polls and postals bringing the number closer to average. I suspect we’ve seen half the pre-polls counted so far (the rest should come in quite quickly) and a third of the postals (which should dribble in over the next week).
Sunday (7.30pm). 2938 postals from Higgins added. Error in my Bradfield table corrected.
Sunday (4.30pm). 5841 pre-polls from Higgins and 3765 from Bradfield added. These have been particularly strong for Kelly O’Dwyer, increasing her two-party margin from 8.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent. Special hospital team (about 500 votes) also added from Bradfield; not yet available from Higgins.
Sunday (early). The AEC has seen fit to publish booth results, so too late to be any use, I hereby reinstate the table. Also, here’s a revised version of my regional Higgins breakdown. I’ve abolished the distinction between the “pink-green” area of Prahran-Windsor and “red” Carnegie – notwithstanding that there’s some distance between the two, the figures were near identical. The other distinction is between “deep blue” Toorak-Kooyong and the “light blue” bulk of the electorate.
| LIB | CHANGE | GRN | LIB 2PP | SWING | |
| Light Blue | 52.76% | -1.2% | 24.4% | 58.5% | 1.1% |
| Deep Blue | 61.13% | -2.9% | 19.8% | 65.3% | -0.7% |
| Marginal | 41.03% | 2.1% | 27.9% | 48.6% | 6.8% |
And here’s the Bradfield breakdown, the “marginal” area being what I described previously as “pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby”.
| LIB | CHANGE | GRN | LIB 2PP | SWING | |
| Deep Blue | 58.0% | -5.6% | 25.2% | 66.0% | -1.7% |
| Marginal | 48.4% | 0.2% | 28.9% | 57.1% | 4.1% |
The general impression is that while the Greens absorbed most of the missing Labor vote across the board, some of it leaked either to the Liberals or to other minor parties (the DLP in particular polled 6.6 per cent in the marginal areas of Higgins, and scored double the vote in the marginal areas of Bradfield compared with the rest of the electorate) and thence to the Liberals as preferences. This counterbalanced a fall in the Liberal primary vote in the deep blue areas of both electorates, which proved nowhere near the magnitude required to put them in danger. It’s interesting to note that this fall was lower in Higgins than in Bradfield, which it’s tempting to put down to resistance to Clive Hamilton among those at the highest end of the income scale.
9.20pm. I’ve performed a similar exercise in Bradfield. There are marginal pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby. These areas swung to the Liberals 4.7 per cent in two-party terms. However, the wealthy Liberal heart of the electorate, from Killara north through St Ives, swung 5.1 per cent to the Greens.
8.40pm. Psephos in comments notes the trend detectable from Higgins in the table below (which I’m continuing to update as the last few booths come in) is reflected in Bradfield: “Hornsby Central, Labor’s best booth in the seat: Liberal primary vote up 5.9%.”
8.20pm. I’ll keep that coming in tabular form. “Light blue” zone is the bulk of the electorate; “deep blue” the riverfront from South Yarra through Toorak to Kooyong; “pink-green” Prahran/Windsor; “red” the Carnegie area.
| LIB 2PP SWING | BOOTHS REPORTING | |
| Light blue zone | 0.9% | 20 out of 21 |
| Deep blue zone | -0.8% | 6 out of 6 |
| Pink-green zone | 6.3% | 6 out of 6 |
| Red zone | 7.1% | 3 out of 3 |
8.02pm. While I’ve been quiet, I’ve been calculating the Higgins booth results provided by Antony into four zones. While this has been happening the Liberal-Greens margin has blown out to 9 per cent. All four zones have swung to the Liberals: the normally Labor-voting area in the south-east around Carnegie by 9.3 per cent; posh Toorak/Kooyong has swung 1.7 per cent; pink-green Prahran/Windsor 4.3 per cent; and the middle-Liberal balance, from Armadale to Glen Iris and Camberwell to Malvern, by 1.1 per cent. That’s assuming my calculations are correct, which I can’t state with total confidence.
7.38pm. Twelve booths now in from Higgins, swing steady at 5.4 per cent, Kelly home and hosed. Props though to the 400 or so voters of Toorak West for the short-lived entertainment they provided.
7.32pm. Another booth pushes Liberal two-party lead in Higgins to 5.4 per cent. Antony has abandoned commentary, but if he hadn’t I’m guessing he would be calling it now.
7.30pm. No alarms for the Liberals in Bradfield: projected margin 12 per cent.
7.28pm. Antony nonetheless says Higgins “can’t be called yet”.
7.27pm. Antony Green has eight booths in from Higgins and 9.2 per cent counted – O’Dwyer with an almost certainly sufficient 4.8 per cent two-party lead.
7.22pm. Possum, who took about 10 seconds to call the US election for Obama, says on Twitter: “Shorter Higgins – Greens went well with wealthy Lib voters but not so good with middle income Libs. Failed with ALP voters. game over”.
7.19pm. I’ve abandoned the table – it is not possible to keep up with the furious number crunching I needed to do to keep track as each new booth reported. Head to the ABC for elucidation on what’s happening.
7.15pm. That Toorak West result looking quirkier after Gardiner booth reports, but it’s still close. Having trouble keeping up due to AEC failure to report individual booths, so double check anything you see above.
7.13pm. Better result for Liberals in Higgins from Kooyong Park.
7.05pm. Both the booths have 2PP votes in, so my 2PP figures are now less speculative.
7.02pm. First Higgins booth is super wealthy, super Liberal Toorak West, and it shows a very interesting plunge in the Liberal vote.
6.49pm. Unless I’m mistaken – please let it be so – the AEC are not providing individual polling booth figures, which means I might as well pack up and go home.
6.46pm. Lady Davidson Hospital booth in from Bradfield – only 293 votes, but no evidence of a remarkable result.
6.36pm. Still nothing. These are urban electorates so there are no small booths that report quickly; the large number of candidates, particularly in Bradfield, might also be slowing things down.
6.20pm. Until I get notional 2PP counts, my 2PP will be based on the following preference estimates:
HIGGINS: ASP 80-20 to Greens; LDP 80-20 to Liberal; Dems 70-30 to Greens; ONP and DLP 80-20 to Liberal; all others 55-45 to Liberal.
BRADFIELD: DLP 80-20 to Liberal; ASP 80-20 to Greens; ONP and LDP 80-20 to Liberal; CCC and ENE 50-50; all others 75-25 to Liberal.
# and % primary vote figures are raw; primary vote swing and 2PP figures are based on booth matching.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections. First figures should be in in about 20 minutes.
evan dont get carried away. Wait for newspoll then we can tell if there is a honeymoon
[Rudd needs a few big announcements over the next few weeks to counter the Abbott honeymoon!]
It’s 5 weeks away from Christmas. Nothing needs to be done now. The honeymoon will come and go. Wait until Abbott has to deliver. He will be found wanting.
[It’s 5 weeks away from Christmas]
Make that 3 weeks.
TP
That’s true. It becomes an ETS in reverse. You have to argue complicated issues in sound bites in the face of a simplistic scare campaign.
[Make that 3 weeks.]
Bugger. I thought I’d been given a partial reprieve.
[Finns would be happy! Zara Stardust and the Sex Party won 3.5% of the vote in Bradfield! ]
[Zahra won more votes than ANY of the Fred Nile mob.]
:kiss: :kiss: My part in her downfall.
Very concerning that Pollbludgers have been swept up in the so-called Abbott honeymoon on the back of two by-elections in blue ribbon seats that both swung against the liberals. Interesting times indeed
Could help but watch Barnaby Hanson on Insiders. Incoherent as usual and a very soft ride from Cassidy. And this “talent” on the front bench? Bring it on!
[Nuclear power in Australia means nuclear weapons state one day. You mark my words.]
Yep, just like Japan.
Bugger. I thought I’d been given a partial reprieve.
Dyno,
That’s my kind of Christmas “spirit”! 🙂
A couple of observations from the campaign in Higgins:
O’Dwyer refused to do MSM interviews but instead focussed on local campaigning. The invisible candidate wasn’t invisible where it counted.
O’Dwyer used direct mail overwhelmingly to communicate her message. Vox pops and the Greens commentariat criticised her for wasting paper and intimidation. Results show it worked.
O’Dwyer (and Fletcher) were letting it be known they support action on CC.
The MSM seem to love a clown for colour and movement. Abbott is the newest bozo on the block and the commentariat are likely to be highly amused and cheering for some time. But, when the serious questions of policy get asked, a squeaky horn is unlikely to cut it as an adequate answer.
New leaders tend to get some kind of honeymoon with the MSM and the voters. The only questions are how strong it is and how long it will last.
Agree GB, but let’s not pronounce the honeymoon before the first newspoll. As a labor voter, I am much happier with Abbott than Turnbull as leader, but I think it would be wrong for Labor to underestimate how he will go with the MSM cheersquad behind him and a good scare campaign on the ETS.
I also think that the word “honeymoon” is no longer valid given the way it is continually used in relation to Rudd
Just a few days ago people here were praying the the Liberals would make Abbott leader and now half of those same people are come over all nervous.
😕
Agreed Steve K, it sounds that way. I think the concern is more Labor’s selling of the ETS and its vulnerability to a scare campaign. I still think Abbott is far better for Labor than Turnbull.
[Very concerning that Pollbludgers have been swept up in the so-called Abbott honeymoon on the back of two by-elections in blue ribbon seats that both swung against the liberals.]
Who has?
[Just a few days ago people here were praying the the Liberals would make Abbott leader and now half of those same people are come over all nervous.]
Half? Oh please
[Just a few days ago people here were praying the the Liberals would make Abbott leader and now half of those same people are come over all nervous.
Half? Oh please]
Since the election of “da chosen one”, I have barely vacated the crapper.
On those rare occassions I have been ambulatory, I run thru the house screaming “all is lost,repent now”
Other than that, I am fine.
😉
GG
[a squeaky horn is unlikely to cut it as an adequate answer.]
Abbott the squeaky horn, eh? I hope that sticks 🙂
You’re right on the colour and movement thing. The media love a ‘colourful political identity’; the journalists because they always have something interesting to write about (eg Annabel), and the owners because colour sells their product. They won’t mind if the colour is provided by Abbott smashing everything in his china shop though. His stuff-ups will all be high profile. He won’t be able to hide – be the political ‘small target’ of Beazlian yore. I suspect he’ll roman candle and buy the farm.
[Just a few days ago people here were praying the the Liberals would make Abbott leader and now half of those same people are come over all nervous.]
Steve, me nervous?
The Art of Propaganda War:
[Rapidity is the essence of war: take advantage of the enemy’s unreadiness, make your way by unexpected routes, and attack unguarded spots.]
[I run thru the house screaming “all is lost, repent now”]
Gus, is that the same as sliding up and down the pole and screaming: “Ziggy, Ziggy”? 😉
To clarify, I was referring to comments by Evan (our resident nervous nelly!) and GB, certainly not half of PB or Labor posters
I think come election time one thing Abbott won’t be able to shake is that he is risky. Voters will also find it hard to shake that feeling of risk considering that he has walked away from many of his previously held positions, e.g. first he said pass the CPRS unamended, now he says rejected the amended version. First he said the concept of AGW is “crap”, now he says that is no longer his “considered opinion”.
Voters won’t be able to reconcile these dramatic opinion reversals, especially when it is made known that Abbott was only able to become leader thanks to the support of the outright AGW deniers, like Minchin, Jensen, Bernardi et al.
[To clarify, I was referring to comments by Evan (our resident nervous nelly!) and GB, certainly not half of PB or Labor posters]
Andrew, You have identified the ones I was thinking of. I was wRONg to say half, maybe half of the posts at certain times is closer to the mark.
I hope Abbott gives Joyce the climate change portfolio.
[I think come election time one thing Abbott won’t be able to shake is that he is risky. ]
With hindsight it’s a pity that Albo used the Latham taunt on Turnbull. It’d be good to direct it at Abbott who is actually a much bigger risk than T.
From what he said on Insiders – and how he said it -I think Barnaby’s heading for Finance.
He referred to accountancy as his only area of expertise.
They should create a new portfolio for Joyce – Minister for Cognitive Disabilities and Frontal Lobe Therapy.
Steve,
Turnbull – Latham Mark 1
Abbott – Latham Mark 2
The gifts keep coming
[To clarify, I was referring to comments by Evan (our resident nervous nelly!) and GB, certainly not half of PB or Labor posters]
What makes anyone think I’m nervous about Abbott? I actually think and have said here Labor DOESN’T need to do anything this side of Christmas. There’s NO need to worry about him.
Bit of comedic relief
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/the-50-best-protest-signs-of-2009/
Finns
[Rapidity is the essence of war: take advantage of the enemy’s unreadiness, make your way by unexpected routes, and attack unguarded spots.]
I look forward to seeing a methodical campaign by Rudd on Abbott unfolding over the next 6-9 months. As a few posters here have reminded of Keating’s comments on doing Hewson slowly.
[Buckle up for one hell of a ride
PAUL DALEY | Tony Abbott is harder to pigeonhole than many believe and while his detractors say he comes with plenty of baggage, that’s half the fun]
Just like Latham Paul.
Lets be clear. If Rudd can beat Howard, Abbott wont even raise a sweat. I just find it amazing that Rudd gets criticised for his wordiness, when Abbott can take opposing positions on the ETS and get away with it
Remember how Abbott used to hold up Latham’s book in parliament and quote from it? Guess who is going to have a large dose of his own medicine heaped on him?
AND then have people like Annabelle Crabb call him a conviction polititician and others saying that at least you know where you stand with him!
Ask Joe Hockey about the latter proposition…
Joyce would be a disaster in the House. He would be kicked out of every 2nd question time. He is unable to control himself in the Senate, I have no idea how he would be able to handle the House.
Actually, I think the problem is we’ve been misinterpreting what the msm means by ‘conviction politician’.
It doesn’t mean, as you would think it does, that it’s a politician who is true to his/her convictions regardless.
It means a politician who, regardless of what they tell you, hasn’t really changed their minds…someone who lies but you know that they’re lying.
zoomster,
Exactly what did Abbott get convicted of?
Poor spelling?
[Remember how Abbott used to hold up Latham’s book in parliament and quote from it? Guess who is going to have a large dose of his own medicine heaped on him?]
Gotta love it GB 😉
Love how both Abbott and Howard are so-called conviction politicians. Abbott said to vote for the unamended ETS, then shifted his position to not this ETS, now it’s no ETS, and that is conviction?? As for Howard his only conviction was to do whatever it takes to win elections
Which is why I tihnk Abbot’s “flip flopping” over climate change won’t really stick to him. Everyone already assumed when he made first made his statements supporting climate change action that he doesn’t believe it anyway. Everyone knew his views all along but it’s only just now (because he’s leader) that he’s truly expressing them, we could even let go of his reversals as just “supporting what the leader says”, (until he got sick of him and sought to replace him) which no longer apply as he’s the leader, and has the right to decide..
[Everyone already assumed when he made first made his statements supporting climate change action that he doesn’t believe it anyway.
So wouldn’t a conviction politician who doesn’t believe in AGW say we should do nothing?
[that he’s truly expressing them, we could even let go of his reversals as just “supporting what the leader says”]
I don’t recall Turnbull ever saying that the Liberals would support the CPRS as is, which is what Abbott said.
I wonder if Louise was one of those 3 months premature babies. It would be interesting to some to collate the birth of Louise to the wedding of Tone & Maggie! 😉
It would be funny if Abbott was a serial breaker of his church’s teachings forbidding s#x before marriage! 😉
I wonder how he can explain the hypocrisy besides wanting a fresh start from the time he became Lib leader! 😉
[Mrs Abbott says she and daughters Louise, 20, Frances, 18, and Bridget, 16,]
[But she also paid tribute to her husband over what was the biggest emotional roller-coaster ride of their 20-year marriage, ]
AFR today. The opposition has decided on a climate change policy that John Howard’s task group rejected as too costly.
it seems clear that TP that the no-ets and no-carbon tax option will be more costly. Rudd will indeed appear to be the economically conservative one
[The opposition has decided on a climate change policy that John Howard’s task group rejected as too costly.]
That won’t stop Abbott.
it also appears that Abbott has committed to no more than 5 % cuts
so i wonder whether the chap from the AFR who critcised Rudd’s scheme on Insiders will now support a costlier scheme that will achieve less??