Newspoll: 59-41

The third Newspoll in consecutive weeks is another disaster for the Coalition, showing Labor’s lead widening still further despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals. Labor is now ahead 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 58-42 at both last week’s unusual poll and last fortnight’s usual one. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down two points to 65 per cent while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. UPDATE: Graphic here: interestingly, 4 per cent has marched from satisfied with Kevin Rudd to dissatisfied, but Malcolm Turnbull’s disapproval rating is up six points as well. Labor leads 48 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote.

Elsewhere:

• Labor’s lead is steady at 58-42 according to the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which seems to be more closely resembling Newspoll than it used to. There are also various questions on the parties’ approaches to the global financial crisis and the rise in interest rates.

• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Matthew Groom, son of former Premier Ray Groom, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the state lower house division of Denison. Neales suggests the “corporate lawyer with Tasmanian state-owned wind power company Roaring 40s” is likely to win a spot on the ticket when the party finalises preselection on Monday, which it earlier deferred because party leaders were “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent” (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham clarifies the situation in comments: Elise Archer, Michael Hodgman and Matt Stevenson were preselected in March, and the remainder of the ticket is to be finalised on Monday). Others reportedly seeking preselection are veteran incumbent Michael Hodgman, who is 70 years old and battling ill health which recently forced him to relinquish the Shadow Attorney-General position; Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy alderman who polled strongly as an independent against Treasurer Michael Aird in his upper house seat of Derwent in April; and Elise Archer, a Hobart alderman. Another Hobart alderman, regular independent candidate Marti Zucco, has been mentioned as a starter, but appears to face powerful opposition in the Liberal organisation. The result in Denison at the 2006 election was Labor three, Liberal one and Greens one; Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics rates the Liberals a solid chance of taking a second seat, possibly at the expense of accident-prone Labor incumbent Graeme Sturges.

• The Queensland Greens have preselected their unsuccessful Senate candidate from 2007, Larissa Waters, to head their ticket at the next election. Waters prevailed in a three-way contest over Jenny Stirling and Libby Connors, party activists and frequent candidates respectively based in Townsville and Toowoomba.

• Republished courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble, Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times lambasts Peter Dutton and his supporters over his reluctance to stand and fight in Dickson, and confidently predicts he will now not only contest the seat but win it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  2. Gary B – so can we assume that the 76% in that poll think that Rudd should humanise the program further if they want it fairer and more balanced? Surely that’s not what the OO is looking for.

  3. [“I’m at the racetrack this morning – and there’d be more Labor voters walking around than Liberal voters – and they’re coming up to me one after the other and saying ‘Wilson, you were right’.]

    I think wilson has taken the wrong dose of meds.
    Note the time of the article!!

    [I’m no racist and Rudd’s a bully: TuckeyOctober 23, 2009 – 7:54AM ]

    The only people at the track are staff trainers etc.

    Wilson has well and truly stuffed his lines

  6. [Gusface – Lets not kid ourself here LOL. Rudd’s solution is exactly the same as Howards’. Howard also consulted with Indonesia and asked them to help with Boat people, that helped stems the flow of boat people to Australia.]

    #958 – maybe i should address your density by re-posting my #576:

    [They ask what is the difference between Pacific Solution and the Indonesian Solution?

    The IS:

    1. The people are already in Indonesia
    2. The people dont have to spend 6 days in a leaking boat risking their lives to sail to Australia
    3. The people dont have to pay the snakeheads and leeches to get on to the leaking boat
    4. The people will get process quicker by UNHCR, hopefully, than the Pacific Solution.
    5. The refugee policy will always more humane under Labor
    6. Me mates in Jakarta will probably get richer over this 👿 ]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/10/20/newspoll-59-41-6/all-comments/#comment-341359

    In addition, Howard spent about $300M on the Pacific Solutions (PNG & Nauru). How much Rudd has spent so far?

  9. It’ll be very interesting to see how results compare in Bradfield & Higgins – one has a local who’s had experience standing for elections before, and works professionally for the Greens, and the other is a high-profile media literate who has never identified strongly with the Greens party.

  10. [And horses?
    Which end do you think Wilson was talking to?]

    Don’t you mean, “which end has Wilson got his head up”??? 🙂

  11. There was the sound of horses clipclopping around in the background of Tuckey’s talk with Price. I thought at the time that he might have been riding one!!

    If this thing is still playing out in November/December it will be fascinating to see what people will do in Bradfield and Higgins. Neither will change the seat but the swing might get interesting with the ‘DRs wives’.

  13. Can you imagine Paul Fletcher and Kelly O’Dwyer campaigning on a policy that boat people are potential terrorists?
    Turnball has let this get way out of control, all because he won’t discipline the far right in his party, and he’s been told no doubt that sucking up to the likes of Alan Jones and Steve Price will revive his popularity ratings.

  14. The reborn Shannas is right on the money.

    [THERE is so much cant, hypocrisy and dissembling in parliament on the issue of asylum-seekers now it’d choke a big brown dog. But, as both sides of politics abrogate policy leadership and use the politics of fear and smear, it’s all we are left with.

    Raw politics is making the arrival of boatpeople a divisive issue once more when it shouldn’t be, and the Rudd government is as culpable as the Coalition when it comes to emotive catchcries and racist innuendo.

    There’s hardly been an honest or brave word uttered since the new season of asylum-seekers began and the issues of immigration, border security, terrorism, health, employment and refugee intakes instantly ran to the top of public concerns in electorates all over Australia. ]

  15. I read Shannas article and agreed with most of it but I’m not convinced of this statement.
    [and the issues of immigration, border security, terrorism, health, employment and refugee intakes instantly ran to the top of public concerns in electorates all over Australia.]

  16. From ABC Radio News: Laurie Ferguson and John Murphy will be fighting for the one seat, “Reid”. Ferguson is demanding a rank & file vote from local party members, claiming he’s got more support in the electorate.

  18. GB

    Shannas actually walks back from that statement later in the article. I really doubt it would be in the top 5 issues if there was a poll today.

  19. GG

    Half are moralising and the other half are flogging the refugee issue for all it’s worth. I much prefer the moralising half. It’s a step in the right direction.

  20. Diogenes – re Shanahan article
    Amazing that that particualr journo in that particular organ can be so accurate. My thoughts exactly reflected in that piece.

    GG – Except Shanahan rather overuses the ‘h’ word and its synonyms don’t you think?
    🙂

  21. Aren’t there usually surveys of the priority of issues published in Newspoll? I don’t recall seeing oen recently, but it would be hard to imagine that border security is now a No.1 issue. Does anyone know of some evidence for the Shanahan Hypothesis?

  22. Greens have pre-selected Dr Clive Hamilton OA as their candidate for Higgins, . He immediately went on the front foot over ‘climate change”. Bob Brown immediately went on the front foot attacking the ALP. Watch for more of this type of stuff. The COALition are really not in the game any more.
    These are the very ‘cross over candidates’ that will increasingly emerge. Really a conservative type of middle aged midddle class, perfect for Higgins, With the polls the way they are and the personal vote for Costello gone. it will be interesting to see how close the result is.
    Prediction.
    Libs 54% Greens 46%.
    One of the things shown by past results is that as soon as people vote Green in a by election the Green vote is slightly higher in the next election. It moves the rusted ons and allow them the freedom to continue voting Green.
    Great candidate!

  23. There was some debate over the airlines’ responsibility over valid passport, visa etc.

    This notice is clearly displayed at Singapore Airlines check-in counter:

    The Airlines only check that you look, more or less, like the person on the passport. They dont check anything else.

  24. jv,

    I expect the MSM to be hypocritical and inconsistent. That is what sells newspapers.

    One things for sure, you “cut up” really bad when your self righteous hubris is penetrated by a well directed barb.

  27. I’m dreaming of a 60/40 Newspoll next time, to make it plain to Turnbull that beating up asylum seekers is not the answer.

  28. Note that I have a Higgins by-election thread. I am pleased that Possum has stated my opinion on this subject for me, thereby allowing me to maintain my veneer of impartiality (except for this comment of course).

  29. Update on aboriginal housing in the NT
    [Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs secretary Jeff Harmer says the program is on track to reach the target.

    So far 102 houses have been built under the Strategic Indigenous Housing and Infrastructure Program (SIHIP), he told a Senate estimates hearing in Canberra.

    A further 50 new houses and 180 rebuilds or refurbishments would be completed by the end of the year.

    In 2010 the program will deliver 200 more houses and 1,000 refurbishments, double the rates of previous construction, he said.

    Project management costs had also been cut from 11.4 per cent to 8 per cent.

    “There is a significant reduction in the overheads (and) management costs,” Dr Harmer told the hearing]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/indigenous-housing-back-on-track-govt-20091023-hcad.html

  30. I’d love that dream too, Triton, because it would mean that we’ve grown up as a nation but I think it’s “in your dreams” to think it will happen. I suspect it will go down quite a bit together with Kev’s rating.

  32. [Update on aboriginal housing in the NT]

    Great, Vera. Wonder how Tony Abbott will play that one next week. Great for Jenny Macklin too – she is a good and sincere soul.

  34. BH I agree with you, sadly, that kev and labor will lose a few points next poll.
    Wonder what Morgan will tell us, he puts one out friday arvos doesn’t he?

  35. [BH I agree with you, sadly, that kev and labor will lose a few points next poll.]
    If it’s within the MOE I don’t see a problem. When your numbers are sky high the only way to go is down.

  38. [One of the things shown by past results is that as soon as people vote Green in a by election the Green vote is slightly higher in the next election.]
    Cunningham 2002 & 2004 would seem to prove this wrong
    2002 by election Lib’s did not stand,
    Labor 38% Green 23%
    Two Party Preferred:
    GRN: 52.23%
    ALP: 47.77%

    2004 Lib’s do stand
    Labor 39% Lib 28 Greens 20%
    TPP
    labor 61.5%
    Lib 38.5%

    Higgins has similarities because labor won’t stand in by election but will in next fed election

  39. Thanks Aristotle – Really well put and a bit unexpected.

    Vera and I are Kev fans because we probably will never be able to thank him enough for getting rid of John Howard.

    I’m not unrealistic enough to realise the polls will revert it’s just that I don’t want it to happen over this issue. It will give the Libs too much latitude to continue their rants.

    I’d like Kev to keep the debate going as he did last night – nuanced. I think Louise Adler on Q&A was right.

    Dutton saying Rudd will soon fall like a ‘pack of cards’ was so telling of the Lib’s attitude since 2007.

  40. I believe that the ALP can’t believe their luck having mad Tuckey on a bender about asylum seekers. Last week Ruddock came out of hiding and reminded everybody, especially younger voters, what a dinosaur he is and how unpalatable are his views. Now Tuckey is all over the TV and radio demonstrating that he is a loud mouthed uncouth dill with bullying tendencies. Try as he might, Turnbull cannot pretend to be a “compassionate conservative” whilst these two are hovering over his shoulder making frightening faces.
    Turnbull badly needs to disendorse these two pieces of unnecessary ballast but is in too week a position to do so.
    The Rudd mantra about “compassion” etc obviously means that the ALP polling sees a need for in the community. The Lib dinosaurs stop Turnbull from meeting or even approaching that need.

  42. “They are given fake passports which would not pass muster at Tullamarine, but suffice for the journey they have to make, given the corruption in those parts of the world.”

    According to the left you don’t need a passport to get into Australia, you can waltz right on in.

    Why would they need a passport to get into Sydney International?

    Anyways you can apply for refugee status at the airport.

  43. [Not a lot of changes although the name Reid has been retained for the proposed McMahon seat, and Prospect has been renamed McMahon.]
    Hooray for common sense.

  44. [From ABC Radio News: Laurie Ferguson and John Murphy will be fighting for the one seat, “Reid”. Ferguson is demanding a rank & file vote from local party members, claiming he’s got more support in the electorate.]
    Hehe. What’s in a name?

  45. [The Liberals’ one hope, because they cannot win government in their current fractured state, is that Labor will fall apart under the pressure. It is the same modus operandi that saw the Liberals oppose the government’s economic stimulus measures in the hope that a Great Depression-style crisis would sweep them back into office. That piece of rank and misdirected opportunism failed. Then the OzCar egg exploded. Now Malcolm Turnbull looks set to misfire all over again rather than do what all erstwhile Liberal supporters were hoping for from him — that is to come up with something new and different. That is, after all, what voters expect of oppositions before they elect them to government.]

    Here we go Vera – this one, together with Aristotle’s and Bb’s earlier, will cheer us up. 60/40 forever!!

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/10/23/singing-from-howards-hymn-book-no-help-to-libs/#comments

  46. vera@ 1038

    [Cunningham 2002 & 2004 would seem to prove this wrong]

    Yes, but I think the point is that the Greens increased their vote from 6.6% at the 2001 election to 20.1% at the 2004 election. This dropped to 16.4% at the 2007 election, but it’s still a marked improvement over time.

  47. Barking said.”One of the things shown by past results is that as soon as people vote Green in a by election the Green vote is slightly higher in the next election.”

    Vera replied.”

    Cunningham 2002 & 2004 would seem to prove this wrong
    2002 by election Lib’s did not stand,
    Labor 38% Green 23%
    Two Party Preferred:
    GRN: 52.23%
    ALP: 47.77%

    2004 Lib’s do stand
    Labor 39% Lib 28 Greens 20%
    TPP
    labor 61.5%
    Lib 38.5%

    Higgins has similarities because labor won’t stand in by election but will in next fed election”

    Vera, I was talking about general elections, in 2001 the Greens ran Berry result 6.6% a 2 plus gain. For them to get 20% at the next general election rather spectacularily proves/supports my point.
    Next

  50. [thereby allowing me to maintain my veneer of impartiality (except for this comment of course).]

    Yes, you’re not really an “activist blogger”.

    Janet A would be pleased 😉

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