Newspoll: 59-41

The third Newspoll in consecutive weeks is another disaster for the Coalition, showing Labor’s lead widening still further despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals. Labor is now ahead 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 58-42 at both last week’s unusual poll and last fortnight’s usual one. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down two points to 65 per cent while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. UPDATE: Graphic here: interestingly, 4 per cent has marched from satisfied with Kevin Rudd to dissatisfied, but Malcolm Turnbull’s disapproval rating is up six points as well. Labor leads 48 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote.

Elsewhere:

• Labor’s lead is steady at 58-42 according to the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which seems to be more closely resembling Newspoll than it used to. There are also various questions on the parties’ approaches to the global financial crisis and the rise in interest rates.

• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Matthew Groom, son of former Premier Ray Groom, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the state lower house division of Denison. Neales suggests the “corporate lawyer with Tasmanian state-owned wind power company Roaring 40s” is likely to win a spot on the ticket when the party finalises preselection on Monday, which it earlier deferred because party leaders were “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent” (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham clarifies the situation in comments: Elise Archer, Michael Hodgman and Matt Stevenson were preselected in March, and the remainder of the ticket is to be finalised on Monday). Others reportedly seeking preselection are veteran incumbent Michael Hodgman, who is 70 years old and battling ill health which recently forced him to relinquish the Shadow Attorney-General position; Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy alderman who polled strongly as an independent against Treasurer Michael Aird in his upper house seat of Derwent in April; and Elise Archer, a Hobart alderman. Another Hobart alderman, regular independent candidate Marti Zucco, has been mentioned as a starter, but appears to face powerful opposition in the Liberal organisation. The result in Denison at the 2006 election was Labor three, Liberal one and Greens one; Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics rates the Liberals a solid chance of taking a second seat, possibly at the expense of accident-prone Labor incumbent Graeme Sturges.

• The Queensland Greens have preselected their unsuccessful Senate candidate from 2007, Larissa Waters, to head their ticket at the next election. Waters prevailed in a three-way contest over Jenny Stirling and Libby Connors, party activists and frequent candidates respectively based in Townsville and Toowoomba.

• Republished courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble, Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times lambasts Peter Dutton and his supporters over his reluctance to stand and fight in Dickson, and confidently predicts he will now not only contest the seat but win it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  3. Nice one BH 🙂

    Back to Tuckey, him saying on radio that Rudd had better not meet him in a bar is a threat of violence surely?
    After all his talk of terrorists he is now inciting violence against our PM.
    There must be laws against this?
    Throw Tuckey in jail with the suspected terrorists I say
    For Ruddy’s sake!!!

  4. The most recent boat arrivals mean that there is still room for another 12,000 plus refugees via UNHCR (who arrive by air) this year, to make up the usual annual total of 13,500. So where’s the crisis?

    The 1100 at Christmas Is should be brought to the mainland forthwith and allowed to be live free until their cases are determined:

    [A GROUP of mostly Afghani men have been delivered to Christmas Island, taking the number of asylum-seekers on the island to more than 1100.
    …
    The arrival of SIEV 33 comes a day after 32 men made the island after sailing from Sri Lanka in a boat donated by Catholic charities in the wake of the 2004 tsunami.
    …
    Another 22 asylum-seekers, detected near Ashmore Reef this week, are still on their way to the island.]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26249450-5013871,00.html

    At least the boat the sri Lankans steamed over on seems to have been more seaworthy than usual:
    [Anton Lambert, a Catholic Sinhalese boat builder in the west coast town of Kochchikade, said the latest boat was one the multi-day fishing vessels his Sea Horse Marine company had made for local fishermen and on contract for overseas charities.]

  5. Dodgy economics and single issue xenephobia. Do the Libs have to pay royalties to Hanson now that they have become One Nation?

  9. Astro

    I didn’t know that either until today. My reaction was similar. Still, a posh neighbourhood like Higgins might agree on that one.

  10. The King has been the glue that holds Thailand together between the Red, Yellow, Pink and Blue shirts. There are predictions that if he dies, Thailand could end up in chaos and, maybe another push factor for those “illegal” “terrorists” 😉 boat people. More green curry anyone?

    [BANGKOK – THAILAND’S 81-year-old king is in stable condition in hospital, the palace said on Thursday, adding it would no longer issue daily updates on his health but would make a statement if his condition changed.

    The health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, admitted to hospital on Sept 19 with a fever, is a sensitive topic in financial markets because he is seen as the sole unifying figure in a politically polarised country with a long history of coups and upheaval.]

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/SE%2BAsia/Story/STIStory_445607.html

  11. GG

    Just barely 🙂

    Dio

    Urgh, what is he thinking? Hmmmmmmm Maybe people are stupid in Higgins? They did vote for Peter Costello a lot…

    Anyway I’m sure he won’t win. Higgins will stay Lib.

  12. JV
    maybe it’s some sort of Labor-Green plan?

    Zoomster
    What a moron!

    Don’t you love the internet? Imagine how broing it would become if it was censored. We wouldnt have the joy of seeing a youth arrested in the US for faking his own suicide by posting it on a video hosted in Israel…

    ?

  15. The MSM will of course spin any reduction in Labor’s poll lead as a backlash against their treatment of asylum seekers and an endorsement of the Liberal scare campaign!
    I’m boycotting all commercial talkback radio, or at least the usual suspects(Jones, Hadley, Price, Morrison, Smith, 2GB in general) – they’re very predictable!

  17. astrobleme
    [maybe it’s some sort of Labor-Green plan?]
    I’d like very much to see such a concept happen – but on something a little less wowserish than censorship, please 🙂

    Diogenes might be right about the Higgins demographic – what do the doctors’ wives think of net censorship?

    GG – Barbs? Really? What barbs? I’ve seen a a barb shoot out of a coneshell, and they are quick and lethal. They are very defensive creatures too, just like a loyal soldier of the party.

  18. [The 1100 at Christmas Is should be brought to the mainland forthwith and allowed to be live free until their cases are determined]

    I hope you have nothing to do with Labor policy. Your suggestion would strip away half of their lead in the polls in no time at all.

    The current policy and associated actions is about where it needs to be.

  19. Crikey, this shows just how disillusioned some Liberal supporters really are. This commenter has to be on something pretty strong to believe this!!! 🙂

    [Oppositions never win government, government loses it so what opposition there is at the moment needs to get its stuff together and line up behind a leader of substance. Who? Watch out for Costello on the inside rails .. Whether you like it or not I would be surprised if he was not the next Coalition PM.]
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/comments/0,23836,26248689-953,00.html

  21. Astrobleme – more power to Hamilton if he does run – a fabulous name. Has been in my family since 1162!!

    He’s got a bit of courage because the Libs will be out there trying to class him as a nutter. Hamilton won’t back down tho – he can handle himself pretty well.

  24. Tom H
    [I hope you have nothing to do with Labor policy. Your suggestion would strip away half of their lead in the polls in no time at all.]
    😆
    Don’t be concerned. I have little or no influence on Labor policy. The ‘little’ comes from my limited influence through mates in the party in the Right. The ‘no’ comes from my limited influence through mates in the Left. Probably amounts to 0.00001% of one neutron’s influence on one sentence in an occasional draft policy that never goes anywhere.

    I still think with a modicum of leadership (and explanation of complexities – which I’m assured here Rudd is about to embark on) to prick the xenophobes’ balloon, we could get back to having asylum applicants in the community while they wait. I am not advocating that it start tomorrow, but it would be a positive if the high-pitched canine tone could be dropped altogether by the govt.

  25. JV,

    I aim to maim, not kill.

    1024 seems to have done its job. I’ll have to bait my hook behind a tree next time.

  26. JV, I can see where you are coming from and in my heart I want what you want. In my head I know that that level of community goodwill and charity to asylum seekers is a very long way off. Rudd is steering a course that is about as moderate as is acceptable at this time.

  29. Tom H – re Howard poison

    Agreed. I seem to remember a story on the ABC some years ago about some temporary visa holders (Afghans?) living in a NSW country town and they were warmly welcomed in that community, and that gave me hope.

    I think if the government takes its finger off the fear button completely, and starts giving out a compassionate noble message, then the fragrant binding oils of tolerance will ascend to cover the stagnant waters of prejudice.

  30. Not sure if anything concrete happening yet, but at least on the agenda…

    [Speaking after meeting state and territory treasurers in Canberra on today, Mr Swan said Australia wasn’t building enough houses in terms of population growth. Mr Swan said the treasurers had discussed social housing, development approval processes and the need for more to be done to improve rental affordability as well as what could be done to get private sector investment.]

    [“The Commonwealth has this view that we have got to get ahead of the curve here,” he told reporters.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/swan-says-more-housing-needed-for-national-recovery-20091023-hck1.html

  31. JV
    [I seem to remember a story on the ABC some years ago about some temporary visa holders (Afghans?) living in a NSW country town and they were warmly welcomed in that community, and that gave me hope.]

    Maybe that’s the same story I recall. It certainly was a good news story. There was a bit of Christian push from the locals which disturbed me but I guess that’s a small thing to endure for the brilliant opportunity those guests received.

    It may not hurt Rudd’s standing too much if there is some noise from groups that think he’s too hard line on this issue. It will counter those who think the boats should be towed back into international waters. Yes, I know about our obligations but believe me there are people you would be happy for us to thrown the treaty aside and erect a fence around the shore line.

    Speaking of Christianity – I wonder where the church leaders have been in the last month. I thought they’d have made some sort of statement on the matter by now.

  33. Tom H
    [I wonder where the church leaders have been in the last month.]

    They’re often missing in action just when they might assist – at least among their dwindling segments of the remnant 7% of the population who still bother to attend church.

    In Sydney Jensen and Pell spend all their time stoking the fires of damnation and preparing for a new inquisition targetting moderates. 🙂

  34. No Morgan Poll out as yet but their Consumer Confidence one is out. The Coalition would have to have nightmares looking at that graph here.

    My take on it, is that the electorate has overwhelmingly given the Rudd Government a massive tick on economic management and that the gap between Labor and the Libs on economic management can only get wider from here.

    Turnbull cannot fight against this tide so it is no wonder that all stops are out to try and get traction on the asylum/boat people issue. Unfortunately, I think the tide has gone out on this one too!!!

    [Consumer Confidence is 127.1 (down 1.1 pts in a week and up 24.5pts in six months) according to the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted on the weekend of October 17/18, 2009. Consumer Confidence is now 36.4 points higher than a year ago, October 18/19, 2008 (90.7).

    The small fall in the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has been driven by a decrease in confidence about four of the five components of the rating – however, despite the fall, clearly more than half of Australians, 56% (up 3% – and the highest since July 2007) say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items compared to 21% (up 4%) that say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

    In terms of personal finances, now 44% (down 4%) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year compared to 10% (down 1%) of Australians that expect their family to be ‘worse off financially.’]
    http://www.roymorgan.com.au/

  37. From the Antony link at 1072:

    [ # The inner-western Sydney seat of Lowe has been abolished and amalgamated with much of the former seat of Reid. Lowe has been held by Labor’s John Murphy since 1998. On the draft boundaries it was Reid that had been abolished, while the amalgamated seat had been re-named McMahon.
    # The final boundaries have chose to remove the name Prospect from the electoral map and re-name the seat McMahon, in honour of former Liberal Prime Minister Sir William McMahon, who served as prime Minister 1971-72 and represented Lowe 1949-82. ]

    Interesting. They seem to have played musical chairs with the names to get ex-PM Reid back on the list… thus continuing the fine tradition of safe Labor seats being named after Liberal PM’s. 😛

    Also, they’ve made Calare a little bit safer for the Nationals (3.5% instead of 1.2%), but that’s still poisonous for the Nats long term; more potential Labor votes in the larger towns means more potential Liberal votes in a bad year for Labor, so if it goes to Labor in 2010 it won’t go back to the Nats unless it gets redistributed yet again.

  40. Bird of Paradox @ 1087

    That’s right, the Liberal Party is now claiming Reid (and all the other pre-WWII conservative PMs) as “one of their own”. They can have him.

  41. [The 1100 at Christmas Is should be brought to the mainland forthwith and allowed to be live free until their cases are determined]

    Of all the things that might happen, that is certainly the least likely. If the government did that, it would prove the Liberals right. It would say to the whole world, if you can get to Indonesia, if you can pay Captain Ahab or whatever his name is $10,000, you will get to Australia, and there you will get an immigration lawyer who will keep the government tied in legal knots for so long they’ll eventually give you a visa just to be rid of you. (As has just happened in the UK, where 140,000 people have been given visas just to get them off the books.) Our whole refugee program would be hijacked by people who can afford to pay their way here.

  42. [There was the sound of horses clipclopping around in the background of Tuckey’s talk with Price. I thought at the time that he might have been riding one!!]

    Could Wilson have been at Trackwork at one of the courses because of the 3 hour time difference between Perth and Sydney, ie 9am Sydney time = 7am Perth Time.

  43. [Indonesia is planning to divert the Australian Customs boat with 78 asylum seekers on board to the island of Tanjung Pinang instead of allowing it to dock in Western Java. The immigration chief of Java’s Banten province, Dr Harry Purwanto, has received a text message instructing him to plan around the Oceanic Viking heading directly for the island of Tanjung Pinang, which sits alongside Sumatra in Riau province.

    The Oceanic Viking was previously expected to dock in Merak Port in Western Java, where the asylum seekers on board were to be put ashore.

    This is the same port where 255 mostly Sri Lankan asylum seekers are still refusing to leave their wooden cargo boat.

    Concerns over accommodation options and the effect of mixing the two groups at the same port have persuaded officials that directing the Oceanic Viking to Tanjung Pinang is the best solution.

    An Australian-funded detention centre built on Tanjung Pinang is capable of housing 600 people.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/22/2721516.htm?section=justin

    This is really interesting. Tanjung Pinang is on the island of Bintan, just a stone throw from Singapore. It is a well known resort island with casino etc. Usually a playground for the Singaporeans. See map:

    I didnt realise there was “An Australian-funded detention centre built on Tanjung Pinang is capable of housing 600 people”. It must have been funded by the Howard Govt.

    If so, the Indonesian Solution is really NOT new and NOT the Rudd Govt’s solution. It is in fact The Howard Govt’s.

  44. [If so, the Indonesian Solution is really NOT new and NOT the Rudd Govt’s solution. It is in fact The Howard Govt’s.]

    The Pacific solution, the Xmas Is solution and the Indonesia solution are all variants of the “offshore solution”, which has been common ground between the parties since 2001. There’s no other solution unless we’re going to push people back out to sea and let them drown.

  46. Just a reminder.

    [Pacific solution cost $1b – Connie Levett Immigration Reporter, August 25, 2007

    THE Federal Government’s “Pacific solution” for asylum seekers, designed to discourage arrivals by processing them offshore, has cost more than $1 billion over five years, according to a new report.

    The cost was high, the impact on the asylum seekers was negative and it did not discourage people from coming, says the report, A Price Too High: Australia’s Approach to Asylum Seekers.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pacific-solution-cost-1b/2007/08/24/1187462523594.html

    Whereas the Indonesian Solution has been reported it will cost $50M. El Cheap, if you ask me.

  48. [Tonight: Peter Dutton & Jason Clare. Lateline, ABC1, 1040pm.]

    I think dutton is committing the longest political suicide in history.

    Appearing hither and thither is part of his cunning plan
    😉

  49. Maybe Dutton wants to be recognizable in every state in case the voters take to him like they did to Mal Brough in 2007. Peter has been given the LNP nod that fail in Dickson and there is nowhere else in Queensland to hide. Victoria is probably looking attractive and occupying some of his thinking by now.

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