Newspoll: 58-42

After three successive 55-45 results, the latest fortnightly Newspoll returns the Coalition to its lowest ebb, with Labor leading 58-42. This hasn’t been matched by any seismic shift on the preferred prime minister rating: Kevin Rudd is up two points to 67 per cent, but Malcolm Turnbull is also up one to 18 per cent. If you’re feeling creative, you might interpret the results as a vote of no confidence in the Coalition party room’s hostility to the emissions trading scheme. More details to follow. UPDATE: Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 46 per cent, the Coalition’s is down three to 35 per cent, and Turnbull’s disapproval is down two to a four-month low of 48 per cent. Graphic here; more from Dennis Shanahan.

Meanwhile, the latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 60-40. Further questions cover Kevin Rudd’s performance at the G20 summit (good if not great), confidence in his representation of Australia at such events (high), whether respondents agree with Bill Clinton’s kind words about him (they do), confidence in economic conditions over the next 12 months (sharply higher), concern over personal job security (correspondingly lower) and employees’ perception of how their employer is travelling (mixed).

Some big news on the preselection front, as you’re probably aware:

• Peter Dutton appears to have failed in his bid to move from Dickson to McPherson, having lost Saturday’s preselection vote to Karen Andrews. The state executive of Queensland’s Liberal National Party can refuse to ratify the result, but senior figures in the party have reportedly ruled this out. Dutton is said to have come within a handful of votes of victory on the first round, but was defeated on the third after the excluded Minna Knight’s supporters moved en masse to Karen Andrews (although the ABC records Andrews’ win on the final round being a reasonably comfortable 75 to 59). Liberals are telling the media of a “bloc of up to 40 Nationals” accounting for both local branch and state executive delegates voted against Dutton, but Barnaby Joyce (who supported Dutton) gives this the status of “scratching on the back of a public lavatory door”. Jamie Walker of The Australian reports the outcome was influenced by a “boots and all” attack on Dutton at the preselection meeting by Judy Gamin, former Nationals member for the local seat of Burleigh; the role of Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey in shifting Knight’s votes to Andrews; and the absence of the seat’s Dutton-supporting sitting member, Margaret May, who “opted to continue with a scheduled parliamentary visit to Britain”.

• Dutton’s defeat has led to speculation he might instead be accommodated by a retirement announcement from Fisher MP Peter Slipper or Fairfax MP Alex Somlyay, but neither seems to be biting. Scott Prasser of the Australian Catholic University observes: “The trouble is when you are in opposition both federally and state, you can’t offer any existing MPs any positions overseas or posts so it is very hard to sort of lean on someone say could you please go for the good of the party because we’ve got nothing to offer you.” Many have noted there’s a vacant seat next door in newly created Wright, but as Andrew Landeryou of VexNews notes, this is designated Nationals turf under the merger arrangement.

• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reports high-profile constitutional lawyer George Williams might challenge Bob McMullan for preselection in his northern Canberra seat of Fraser.

• The ABC reports Tamworth councillor and Winton district farmer Russell Webb will seek preselection for the Nationals in the state seat of Tamworth. The seat has been held by independents for all but two years since 1991: by Tony Windsor until his entry into federal parliament as member for New England in 2001, and by present incumbent Peter Draper since 2003.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,794 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

Comments Page 2 of 36
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  1. After the Bradfield pre election, the Libs and some part of the media told us what a great model of a process that was. One week later they are in complete turmoil.
    Grass root democracy is a good thing to strive for but there has to be structures within the party which at the end of the day assist the party to be in the best winning situation. After all, political parties want to win election so that they can implement their policy which they think is in the best interest of the country.

  2. As suggested in the OO – the Nats such as Joyce and Boswell are “emboldened” by a slumping Lib vote (35 to 31%) with the Nat vote steady (4%), (presumably because of ETS related matters). How is this going to be helpful in ANY WAY WHATSOEVER to an election result?

    If there is a genuine anti-ETS movement in the bush, what seats would the Nats could conceivably win from LABOR? Dawson perhaps? Leichhardt? Flynn? (All Qld) Page (Northern NSW?)

    I don’t see how this would be helpful for the Coalition/LNP/Opposition at all.

  3. [I can’t say that I found Gareth Evans very interesting, except once or twice when he couldn’t hold his temper and let fly.]

    He was the first to use the f word in parliament 😛

  4. [As suggested in the OO – the Nats such as Joyce and Boswell are “emboldened” by a slumping Lib vote (35 to 31%) with the Nat vote steady (4%)]

    They don’t really believe it. But perception is everything. I’d be suspicious if they DIDN’T say it was a good result for them.

  5. That 4 percent vote for the Nationals is misleading as their actual vote at elections exceeds anything newspoll reports as accurate.

  6. [Agreed, but these days both Labor and Liberal are full of boring people. Labor doesn’t have the likes of Keating or Gareth Evans anymore…]

    Oh come, come. What about Albo? And Emo? And Gillard has a very sharp wit as well.

  7. [That 4 percent vote for the Nationals is misleading as their actual vote at elections exceeds anything newspoll reports as accurate.]

    That’s true, but it does suggest that a lot of people in regional seats only vote National because they’re forced ti. If the Liberals contested every seat, the Nationals vote would just about disappear. They’d probably only be certain of Maranoa, Parkes and Riverina against serious Liberal opposition.

  9. [That 4 percent vote for the Nationals is misleading as their actual vote at elections exceeds anything newspoll reports as accurate.]

    Prior to the last election, Newspoll had the Nats on 4%. They got 5.5%. Well within the MoE.

    Suck it up.

  10. [Interesting that this one was taken Sep 28 to Oct 1… not over the weekend…?]
    Probably because some states had a public holiday on Monday, so some people in those states would’ve been away on holidays, thus buggering up their sampling.
    [2) I imagine he is future Attorney General material. Hence, a position in the Lower House is more appropriate,]
    I think he would be great in the Senate. He would be a perfect person to have around during the committee stage of bills.
    [the (L) NP is an independent political outfit affilated with the National Party at the federal level.]
    It’s also affiliated with the Liberals at a federal level.

  11. [What about Albo? And Emo? And Gillard has a very sharp wit as well.]

    Albo tries too hard. Sometimes he’s funny though.

    Emo?

    Gillard is ok but a bit weak.

    [Throw in Gippsland, where last year the Nats nearly doubled the Lib vote.]

    You’re paying attention to a by-election…?

  12. [That 4 percent vote for the Nationals is misleading as their actual vote at elections exceeds anything newspoll reports as accurate.]

    Yes, by a point or two – but a point or two that comes at the *direct expense* of the Liberal Party primary vote. This comes about because quite a few people living in a National Party held seat say they’ll vote for the “Liberal Party”.

    If the Libs fielded seats in two elections – they’d wipe the Nats out from having party status after the first election, and leave them with a member or two after the second.

    Why they don’t take the opportunity now to finish the job of destroying the Nats that Howard started makes me wonder.

  15. [Probably because some states had a public holiday on Monday, so some people in those states would’ve been away on holidays, thus buggering up their sampling.]

    With the previous 3 Newspolls being 55-45, I wonder if 58-42 is due to polling being done during the week as opposed to fri-sun?

    If you want to compare samples of anything, variables like that shouldn’t be there.

  16. [Why they don’t take the opportunity now to finish the job of destroying the Nats that Howard started makes me wonder.]

    Disunity is death?

    They would be better off doing it now though, but they think they’ll get back in to government soon enough so don’t want to spoil their chances. But now is the best time. Who cares if the coalition is choc full of disunity for the next 2 elections, it’s not as if they’ll win.

  17. bob went:
    [With the previous 3 Newspolls being 55-45, I wonder if 58-42 is due to polling being done during the week as opposed to fri-sun?

    If you want to compare samples of anything, variables like that shouldn’t be there.]

    The final poll for each pollster before an election is done over some period between Monday and Friday – and they’re always as accurate as one would expect.

  19. [Prior to the last election, Newspoll had the Nats on 4%. They got 5.5%. Well within the MoE.

    Suck it up.]

    Such misplaced haughtiness. Bear in mind two things:

    1. Unless Newspoll overstated the National vote as much as it understated it, you can’t simply lay this at the feet of margin of error.

    2. The MoE is smaller at the margins. A sample size of 1000 equates to an MoE of 3% for a tpp of 50%. But for a tpp of 4% the MoE is more like 0.5%.

  20. [Every year that goes by will see National party support grow and it will utimately be the non-Labor party the prevails.]

    Oh jesus, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf has moved to Qld and joined the Nats! 😀

  21. Should clarify both those points:

    1. Over a period of time that is. (It’s obviously impossible to overstate and understate the same vote in the one poll.)

    2. For “tpp” read “vote”. It doesn’t matter if we’re talking primary or 2pp. My point was simply that the MoE applies to the headline 2pp figure.

  22. #29, Itep,
    ‘In fact a quick look shows that 9 Attorneys-General have been senators, including Lionel Murphy and Peter Durack.’
    In fact, an even quicker look back would have shown you that the last 6 Attorneys General, Phillip Ruddock, Daryl Williams, Michael Lavarch, Duncan Kerr, Michael Duffy and Lionel Bowen, were all from the Lower House.
    Might I also add that with the prominence of terrorism and other legal issues in today’s politics, it makes more sense to have the AG in the Lower House being part of the defence of government policy. And, yes, I realise they are able to ask questions in the Senate, but it is much more prescribed when it comes to the answers they can give. Whereas, in the Lower House, with a well thought through Dorothy Dixer, a government can have a real whack at the Opposition for as long as they want.

  23. [Every year that goes by will see National party support grow and it will utimately be the non-Labor party the prevails.]

    HAHA, keep up the drugs, they’re obviously working!! 😀

  24. [You’re paying attention to a by-election…?]
    I’m paying attention to a contest that saw the increasingly rare spectre of a National candidate on the same ballot paper as a Liberal candidate.

  25. [I’m paying attention to a contest that saw the increasingly rare spectre of a National candidate on the same ballot paper as a Liberal candidate.]

    Sucks to be you then.

  29. I agree that the Nats could probably hold Gippsland against the Liberals. Maybe also Mallee, although they nearly lost it to the Libs in 1993. But I wouldn’t fancy their chances in Cowper or Wide Bay. Hinkler and the new Calare will probably go to Labor.

  30. [I agree that the Nats could probably hold Gippsland against the Liberals. Maybe also Mallee, although they nearly lost it to the Libs in 1993]

    By less than a percent. The Nats have lost Mallee if the Libs contest it again.

  31. [ Paul Nash
    Posted Tuesday, October 6, 2009 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    Every year that goes by will see National party support grow and it will utimately be the non-Labor party the prevails.]

    Seems to be a few in the Liberal party that believe that and they are working towards policies that will see the Liberal party vote move to a glorious 4%.

  33. bob @59

    [Throw in Gippsland, where last year the Nats nearly doubled the Lib vote.

    You’re paying attention to a by-election…?]

    So we won’t hear any more about Fremantle then?

    Paul Nash @ 66

    [Every year that goes by will see National party support grow and it will utimately be the non-Labor party the prevails.]

    You know, he sounds JUST like the Greens…

  34. At least the Greens have a young and growing support base (students and inner city professionals), although I think their vote will peak at 10-15%. The Nats have an elderly and declining support base (small farmers and country town small business, both dying sectors of the economy), and their vote can only go down.

  35. [So we won’t hear any more about Fremantle then?]

    I can’t remember the last time I talked about Fremantle.

    But i’ll make you feel embarrassed anyway.

    Just look at the Green result in the 2008 WA state election to see that 2009 wasn’t an abhorration.

    Bam! 😀

  36. [You know, he sounds JUST like the Greens…]

    I for one think the Greens will always remain the third force, a minor party, until something happens and their support evaporates, either by a new party or their own party’s implosion or etc etc.

  37. [You can choose to stick around this place either as a bellowing old bull or as a kind of grey ghost—and we all know examples of both—but neither option, frankly, appealed terribly much to me.]
    – Gareth Evans

    Tuckey and Alby Shutlz are “bellowing old bulls”, whereas Ruddock is a “grey ghost”.

  38. [I for one think the Greens will always remain the third force, a minor party, until something happens and their support evaporates]
    This is politician speak!

    How is it logically possible for the Greens to ALWAYS remain a third force UNTIL… their support evaporates?

    Either they will ALWAYS remain a third force or they won’t.

  39. Funny how I have not seen one mention of Howard’s promise not to be a commentator in the coverage of his multiple comments since leaving office

  41. Not only is the National’s support base dying (litterally) but it will shrink faster than the demographics imply. A lot of those old NP voters in rural seats will move to a coastal community with better health care services after they retire and well before they die. Places like Wide Bay and the Gold Coast demonstrate this trend. At that point the NP will start losing the country seats, but their former voters will be scattered and they won’t have enough concentration to win any of the coastal seats. I presume this is why the Qld NP is desperate to hold onto seats in the Gold Coast; once they are lost ot the Liberals they are squeezed out forever.

  44. [Gerard Henderson says Rudd’s China policy “about right”.]

    But Gerard later qualified this remark with the following:

    “However, compared to the musings of the Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, anything would sound about right.”

  45. [How is it logically possible for the Greens to ALWAYS remain a third force UNTIL… their support evaporates? ]

    What i’m saying is that they won’t become a major party. It will not be Labor v Green. It will remain Labor v Liberal.

  47. [What i’m saying is that they won’t become a major party.]
    OK, that makes more sense.
    [It will not be Labor v Green. It will remain Labor v Liberal.]
    It’s still possible at this stage that the Labor Left will be a more effective opposition than the Liberals and Nats.

  48. [It’s still possible at this stage that the Labor Left will be a more effective opposition than the Liberals and Nats.]

    Disagree. There’s a large number of very well entrenched Liberal voters who will not vote for Labor – some even vote Green before they’ll vote Labor which ideologically makes no sense.

  49. [“However, compared to the musings of the Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, anything would sound about right.”]

    Julie Bishop has to be one of the least effective political performers in recent memory. Even Greg Sheridan rubbished her abilities as shadow foreign minister, and if Sheridan is forced to write against his beloved Liberals, that really is saying something!

  50. [Nick Minchin is revolting too]
    So according to Minchin, when scientists talk about climate change they should ultimately be ignored.

    Yet when Minchin talks about the dangers of Uranium mining in Arkaroola he expects us all to listen to him?
    http://www.nickminchin.com.au/news/default.asp?action=article&ID=111

    Moreover, Minchin was a senior member of a government that allowed a Uranium mine to be opened in Kakadu, which isn’t simply a state wilderness sanctuary, it is a U.N. World Heritage listed site!

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