Newspoll: 58-42

After three successive 55-45 results, the latest fortnightly Newspoll returns the Coalition to its lowest ebb, with Labor leading 58-42. This hasn’t been matched by any seismic shift on the preferred prime minister rating: Kevin Rudd is up two points to 67 per cent, but Malcolm Turnbull is also up one to 18 per cent. If you’re feeling creative, you might interpret the results as a vote of no confidence in the Coalition party room’s hostility to the emissions trading scheme. More details to follow. UPDATE: Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 46 per cent, the Coalition’s is down three to 35 per cent, and Turnbull’s disapproval is down two to a four-month low of 48 per cent. Graphic here; more from Dennis Shanahan.

Meanwhile, the latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 60-40. Further questions cover Kevin Rudd’s performance at the G20 summit (good if not great), confidence in his representation of Australia at such events (high), whether respondents agree with Bill Clinton’s kind words about him (they do), confidence in economic conditions over the next 12 months (sharply higher), concern over personal job security (correspondingly lower) and employees’ perception of how their employer is travelling (mixed).

Some big news on the preselection front, as you’re probably aware:

• Peter Dutton appears to have failed in his bid to move from Dickson to McPherson, having lost Saturday’s preselection vote to Karen Andrews. The state executive of Queensland’s Liberal National Party can refuse to ratify the result, but senior figures in the party have reportedly ruled this out. Dutton is said to have come within a handful of votes of victory on the first round, but was defeated on the third after the excluded Minna Knight’s supporters moved en masse to Karen Andrews (although the ABC records Andrews’ win on the final round being a reasonably comfortable 75 to 59). Liberals are telling the media of a “bloc of up to 40 Nationals” accounting for both local branch and state executive delegates voted against Dutton, but Barnaby Joyce (who supported Dutton) gives this the status of “scratching on the back of a public lavatory door”. Jamie Walker of The Australian reports the outcome was influenced by a “boots and all” attack on Dutton at the preselection meeting by Judy Gamin, former Nationals member for the local seat of Burleigh; the role of Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey in shifting Knight’s votes to Andrews; and the absence of the seat’s Dutton-supporting sitting member, Margaret May, who “opted to continue with a scheduled parliamentary visit to Britain”.

• Dutton’s defeat has led to speculation he might instead be accommodated by a retirement announcement from Fisher MP Peter Slipper or Fairfax MP Alex Somlyay, but neither seems to be biting. Scott Prasser of the Australian Catholic University observes: “The trouble is when you are in opposition both federally and state, you can’t offer any existing MPs any positions overseas or posts so it is very hard to sort of lean on someone say could you please go for the good of the party because we’ve got nothing to offer you.” Many have noted there’s a vacant seat next door in newly created Wright, but as Andrew Landeryou of VexNews notes, this is designated Nationals turf under the merger arrangement.

• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reports high-profile constitutional lawyer George Williams might challenge Bob McMullan for preselection in his northern Canberra seat of Fraser.

• The ABC reports Tamworth councillor and Winton district farmer Russell Webb will seek preselection for the Nationals in the state seat of Tamworth. The seat has been held by independents for all but two years since 1991: by Tony Windsor until his entry into federal parliament as member for New England in 2001, and by present incumbent Peter Draper since 2003.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,794 thoughts on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. I know people here think I’m a cynical Labor-right pragmatist,

    Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, who would ever think that of you.

  4. It offensive for Oakes to compare overboard to the ETS. Overboard was a blatant case of telling mistruths to win an election. Hardly comparable

  5. Lenore Taylor on the Liberals woes:
    HERE’S a Reader’s Digest-like version of the recent history of the Liberal Party. After losing the 2007 election, and its leader, the party chose Brendan Nelson over Malcolm Turnbull, in part because Turnbull said he supported an apology to the Stolen Generations and many in the party didn’t. Then Nelson, as leader, supported the apology.

    Several months later Nelson sought to shift the party’s position on an emissions trading scheme from support, to conditional support, depending on the outcome of international negotiations. Turnbull strongly opposed the shift and won a leadership spill called by Nelson to resolve the dispute.

    Now a good section of his party is trying to push Turnbull towards exactly the ETS position he was elected to avoid.

    Meanwhile, the putative alternative leader, the highly capable Joe Hockey, has the same position on the ETS as the incumbent leader. In fact, Hockey argued in shadow cabinet in July that the Coalition should try to pass the scheme when it was first brought to parliament in August.

    Anyone see a pattern here?

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,26189482-7583,00.html

  6. West Australian Liberals have called on the party’s leadership not to finalise any arrangements with the Rudd government on amendments to the bill for an emissions trading scheme.

    At its state conference in Perth on Saturday, the party watered down a motion from its WA rural policy committee that had sought to delay any negotiations between the federal parliamentary party and the government until after global climate change talks in December.

    But overwhelming support for a motion to “not conclude any negotiations” until after the Copenhagen summit was another rebuff to Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull in his attempts to take the party with him on the formulation of a climate change policy.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/wa-libs-want-ets-talks-delayed-20091010-grhz.html

  8. WA Libs tell Turnbull to get knotted

    “WA Liberals at the 60th annual State conference have sent a warning to Mr Turnbull on the climate change debate, passing a motion this afternoon calling on the Federal Parliamentary party not to “conclude” negotiations with the Rudd Government on an ETS ahead of the climate change summit in Copenhagen in December.

    “The motion was watered down from an original push to delay any negotiations on the scheme until after talks in Copenhagen, but still delivers a clear message to Mr Turnbull over his decision to push ahead with amendments to the Federal legislation rather than reject the legislation outright.”

  14. Remember everyone! Advise & Consent on ABC2 tonight at 8:30:

    Well, our tele just this minute blew up after 9 years of faithful service (smoke came out of it, sounds like the EHT circuit). Will probably cost more than buying a new one to get it fixed.

    See we won’t be watching anything this evening.

    Bugger.

  16. GG

    The DNC has made the same point, rather more forcefully.

    The Republican Party has thrown in its lot with the terrorists — the Taliban and Hamas this morning — in criticizing the President for receiving the Nobel Peace prize,” wrote DNC Communications Director Brad Woodhouse. “Republicans cheered when America failed to land the Olympics and now they are criticizing the President of the United States for receiving the Nobel Peace prize — an award he did not seek but that is nonetheless an honor in which every American can take great pride — unless of course you are the Republican Party. The 2009 version of the Republican Party has no boundaries, has no shame and has proved that they will put politics above patriotism at every turn. It’s no wonder only 20 percent of Americans admit to being Republicans anymore – it’s an embarrassing label to claim.

  18. The result of Turnbull’s visit to Perth was that the WA Libs agreed to tone down their motion rejecting his policy, making it merely an embarrassment rather than a humiliation. Where was his loyal deputy, I wonder?

  20. Where was his loyal deputy, I wonder?

    Would love to do an exegesis on that sentence.

    “Where”?? oh the mind boggles.

    “Was” – yes she definately is past tense

    “his” given that this denotes the “leader” hard to know whom it refers to, but we’ll allow the term to be combined with Turnbull.

    “loyal” I think Nelson may feel Bishop has some difficulty grasping the full implicaitons of this word

    “deputy” the person not shot by the person who did shoot the sheriff, but in this case also denoting the vacuum waiting to be filled by the next “bright star” of the Liberal Party, who will at least be comforted by the fact they will have very small shoes to fill.

  21. Yes Psephos, a loss for Turnbull (no finalising negotiations before copenhagen) rather than a humiliation (no negotiation before copenhagen)

  22. From a practical point of view, not finalising negotiations before a set time is the same as not negotiating before that time. No certainty by the due date.

    Turnbull’s exit strategy advances one more step.

  23. The result of Turnbull’s visit to Perth was that the WA Libs agreed to tone down their motion rejecting his policy, making it merely an embarrassment rather than a humiliation. Where was his loyal deputy, I wonder?

    Well the WA Treasurer wasn’t there as he has a prior commitment to play in the Chris Mainwaring Tribute game at Subiaco oval.

  24. re the WA libs view on the ETS, WTF (Wisconsion Tourist Federation) is the difference between.

    WA Liberals have called on the party’s leadership not to finalise

    the party watered down a motion that sought to delay any negotiations

    overwhelming support for a motion to “not conclude any negotiations

  26. The Liberals and their woes are dominating the media……and the Government couldn’t be happier LOL
    Poor News Ltd, trying to beat up the asylum seekers corpse to help out their Liberal Party mates!

  27. “If you want to be an expert you don’t need to have gone to school. You just need to outlive everybody.”
    Former Labor MHR, Fred Daly (1912-1995)

  29. Glen mentioned german influence in the pacific last night
    In 1884 germany acquired kaiser-wilhelmland and the bismarck archipelago
    In 1885 germany and spain agreed to mediation over the carolines.Leo XIII agreed in favour of spain.
    In 1886 britain and germany agreed to a demarcation of the western pacific.
    In 1888 germany acquired nauru.
    In 1899 germany bought the spanish rights to the carolines and palau.

    *the western pacific demarcation line agreed to by britain and germany led to britain controlling the solomons and australia german new guinea and bouganville post WW1

  30. WA Liberals have called on the party’s leadership not to finalise

    the party watered down a motion that sought to delay any negotiations

    overwhelming support for a motion to “not conclude any negotiations

    The Liberal Party must be living in some imaginary universe where there is a different reality. Surely there cannot be a larger collection of morons anywhere than in the Liberal Party.

    Turnbull already does enough damage to himself without the rest of the party piling on top. He may as well resign from politics and become Latham commentator in the Financial Review where he would no end of material with which to slay them.

  31. an east asia summit will be held in fukuoka japan in dec btw china, japan, skorea. Japan has formally indicated it is moving away frm the us orbit and seeking to form an east asia union based on the EU Model. With Obama in us, the world geopolitic is certainly having a seismic shift.

    Btw skorea dev is simply stunning whereas japan is stagnant

  32. 1781

    The EU is big and made up of democracies. En East Asian Union could only be either (or possibly neither). Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (and allowing only Taiwan in would cause Mainland problems) are the only Democracies in East Asia.

  33. Japan has formally indicated it is moving away frm the us orbit and seeking to form an east asia union based on the EU Model

    Just as long as they dont call it the “East Asia co-prosperity sphere”
    😉

  34. 1783

    The non-Japanese parts of East Asia would not allow that. They have a serious dislike of Japanese Imperialism.

  35. The non-Japanese parts of East Asia would not allow that. They have a serious dislike of Japanese Imperialism.

    I’d hazard to say they have an even deeper and historical dislike of western imperialism!

  36. 1785

    In East Asia Japan caused a lot of harm to Korea and China. Western Imperialism was comparatively insignificant to China and even more so Korea. The Western powers stuck mainly to the Coast or the issues occurred a sufficiently long time ago as to be a historical event that China does not like. There are bound to still be people in China and Korea who remember the Japanese occupation and few of those would be good.

  37. Western Imperialism was comparatively insignificant to China and even more so Korea. The Western powers stuck mainly to the Coast or the issues occurred a sufficiently long time ago as to be a historical event that China does not like.

    three opium wars,the annexation of hongkong/macau and the korean imbroglio are far far greater than japans war agianst the colonial powers in WW2,which incidentally broke the yoke of western imperialism across all asia.

  38. http://cleantechnica.com/2009/10/09/90-of-coal-plant-co2-captured-in-12-month-test/

    The 12-month test was just completed after running 24 hours a day on a small sectioned-off portion of the smokestack; working on just 5% of the plants total emissions.

    But the test is scalable, and the Electric Power Research Institute, the R&D arm of the utility industry, is optimistic that chilled-ammonia technology will work on a larger scale. It is one of several carbon-capture technologies under consideration as we move to a carbon constrained world.

    Next, Alstom will work with AEP in Columbus, Ohio to test a scaled-up version of the technology at the Mountaineer power plant in West Virginia. That test takes the next step as well; not just capturing the carbon dioxide but burying it 8,000 feet beneath the plant site.

    Alstom’s chilled ammonia process results in a lower energy cost for capturing CO2 than other techniques under consideration so far. Initial studies currently estimate the average energy penalty at around 20-25% of net boiler output. Alstrom is also working on a technique for capturing carbon dioxide emissions from a gas plant.

    Does this move CO2 capture from fantasy to commercial reality?

  39. 1787

    Japan annexed Korea in 1910. Japan Annexed Manchuria (North Eastern China) in 1931. Japan started to invade the rest of Eastern China in 1937 in a war that lasted until 1945 and was full of atrocities by the Japanese.

  40. TTFAB
    I am not apologising for the military ambitions of the japanese,but am merely pointing out in both scale and magnititude,japans actions in WW2 had more significant and nationalistic implications for east asia and in fact all of asia,than the 400 years odd of rape pillage and plunder practiced by the western imperialistic nations,notably france,britain,portugal,the netherlands and spain.

  41. Glenn Milne gives a whole new meaning to the term “loss leader”.

    He reports that the Liberals are so far up their own bums that they want Tony Abbott to be leader. Milne attempts to explain the logic, but really, it’s a hopeless task. What I mean is, you can see a sort-of connection between each step in the decision-making process along the way, but when the ultimate, unavoidable conclusion comes up as “Tony Abbott”, then there’s a flaw in there somewhere, one of gargantuan proportions.

    Things must really be bad in Liberal heads (the ones that are still processing something resembling thought) if they think the Mad Monk is going to save them from anything. Oh, I suppose they have to have a leader of some sorts, and if they hate Turnbull that much then they have to find someone else. But Abbott?

    The only thing Australia has going for it is the Curse Of The Dapper Dwarf, Milne’s well-observed Reverse Midas Touch. Glenn endorsing anything or anyone usually delivers it the kiss of death, followed by the anointing with Holy Oils. Let us pay that Milnesy comes through with yet another failed masterpiece of prediction.

    Amen, and good night to youse all.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/abbott-appears-the-right-choice/story-e6frezz0-1225785317783

    .

  42. Abbott appeals to them in the same manner as a familiar and friendly voice does to a person on their death bed. A voice from the past when the sun was shining and Howardism ruled the country. He will whisper to them words from their childhood, tell them all will be ok, feed them red cordial and close the bunker door on himself and all of them. They will be safe forever in their dream land.

    Howard was garroted in his own electorate by the light hands of McKew, Howardism flushed down the toilet by Rudd and only dark stains on the bowl remain. The Liberal Party guard the stains, refusing their cleansing. The first job of their leader is to clean that bowl, remove the dark smears of Minchin and Co.

  43. Separation of carbon dioxide from nitrogen utilizing zeolitic imidazolate framework materials

    PATENT
    USPTO Application #: 20090214407
    Title: Separation of carbon dioxide from nitrogen utilizing zeolitic imidazolate framework materials

    http://www.freshpatents.com/-dt20090827ptan20090214407.php

    Our key industries, the ones we hope will benefit the most from our product, are the CO2 producing industries, oil refineries, cement makers, utilities and pulp and paper manufacturers like but more specifically the coal powered power plants. These are the major sources of CO2 being placed in our atmosphere, therefore stabilizing them is our primary aim. We propose replacing currently used amine absorbents with ZIFs in fossil fuel-powered power plants. The ZIFs can be used for capturing CO2, which can then be used either as a commercial commodity or stored underground. In a typical carbon capture and storage (CCS) process , the cost of carbon capture represents almost two thirds of the total cost. We highlighted how we bring down the cost (though initially production of ZIFs is an expensive process), improve the efficiency of capturing CO2, and regenerating ZIFs through an economic and eco friendly way. We also focused on where ZIFs could be produced, taking the company BASF, a world leader in supplying chemical products, as a model .

    http://www.cogito.org/Util/PrintDetail.aspx?ContentId=17829

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