Morgan: 58-42

The past fortnight’s face-to-face Morgan polling has Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 58-42. Labor is down three points on the primary vote to 47.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent and the Greens are up one to 9.5 per cent. Apart from that:

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the state of play after the redistribution proposal abolishing Laurie Ferguson’s Sydney seat of Reid:

There was a rumour he was eyeing Parramatta under a plan which would see the incumbent in that seat, Julie Owens, move to Greenway, a Liberal seat which is assuredly Labor thanks to the redistribution. For various reasons, that scenario is not going to fly. More solid is a plan, backed by Ferguson and his support group in the Left, for him to move to the western suburbs seat of Fowler. It is held by Julia Irwin but it is anticipated she will retire at the election. Irwin belongs to the Right but the Left controls the branches in Fowler and wants the seat back. Ferguson, however, faces resistance to getting any seat at all, and that includes from elements of his own faction. “How do you think we would look in terms of renewal?” said one powerbroker. Left kingmakers are leaning towards the Liverpool Mayor, Wendy Waller, for Fowler. The Right is pushing Ed Husic, who ran for Greenway in 2004 but was the victim of a race-hate letterbox campaign … Ultimately Rudd has the final say, a power the Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, could only dream of given the looming preselection fights among NSW Liberals. But it is a power that needs to be used wisely, sparingly and sensitively. “Kevin should not be unfavourable to Laurie,” warned a Ferguson friend, claiming Ferguson had helped Rudd win the leadership.

• Very soon after the previous report appeared, it emerged the NSW Liberal Party was changing its rules to allow, as Imre Salusinszky of The Australian describes it, a three-quarter majority of the state executive to “rapidly endorse a candidate on the recommendation of the state director and with the go-ahead of the state president and the party’s state and federal parliamentary leaders”. The rules are ostensibly designed for by-elections or snap double dissolutions, but can essentially be used at the leaders’ pleasure. This places the party on a similar footing to Labor, whose national executive granted sweeping federal preselection powers to Kevin Rudd and five party powerbrokers earlier this year. The most obvious interpretation of the Liberal move is that it’s an attempt to stymie the influence of the hard right in party branches, and Salusinszky indeed reports the reform is expected to be opposed by “a large part of the Right faction”. However, the Labor parallel demonstrates it can equally be seen as part of a broader trend to centralisation necessitated by the ongoing decline in membership and resulting opportunities for branch-stacking.

• From the previously cited Phillip Coorey article, Nathan Rees’s chief-of-staff Graeme Wedderburn is said to be assured of a winnable position on the Senate ticket at the next election: second if Steve Hutchins retires, third at the expense of incumbent Michael Forshaw if he doesn’t. “Unless, of course, he can be persuaded to enter state politics, which is another option being floated.”

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald (again) notes that South Australian Senator Cory Bernardi is causing angst by agreeing to appear at a hard-right fundraiser in Cook, where federal member Scott Morrison continues to battle the forces that initially delivered preselection to factional operative Michael Towke before the 2007 election.

• The ABC reports that Tony Crook, Goldfields pastoralist and candidate for Kalgoorlie at the 2008 state election, has been “recruited” to stand as Nationals candidate against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor. In response to a reader’s email, I recently had occasion to transpose the state election booth results on the new federal boundaries. In O’Connor, the Nationals would have polled 38.0 per cent to the Liberals’ 25.3 per cent and Labor’s 20.7 per cent. In Durack (successor to Barry Haase’s seat of Kalgoorlie), it was Labor 29.2 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Nationals 28.5 per cent. It should be noted that these numbers are heavily distorted by the presence of sitting Nationals members at state level, as well as the impact of state issues like Royalties for Regions and one-vote, one-value. The Nationals’ federal campaign in Western Australia will be bankrolled by litigious Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer, with the stated objective of gaining a Senate seat.

• There is increasing talk that former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam will vacate his seat of Vaucluse at the next election. He faces multiple preselection challenges in any case, the apparent front-runner being University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton. Local paper the Wentworth Courier has taken aim at Debnam with an article and accompanying vox pop on his parliamentary inactivity during the current term.

• Sonia Byrnes of the Cooma-Monaro Express reports that Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro will nominate for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which the party has won the right to contest without challenge from the Liberals. Labor’s Steve Whan holds the seat by 6.3 per cent.

• Commenter Hamish Coffee relates that a local newspaper has Clover Moore dismissing rumours she won’t seek another term as state member for Sydney.

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room reports that the South Australian Greens are conducting their preselection for the Legislative Council ticket at next year’s state election. The candidates are Carol Vincent, who as SA Farmers Federation chief executive offers an unusual pedigree for a Greens candidate; Tammy Jennings, one-time Democrat and current convenor of the state party; former convenor and unsuccessful 1997 lead candidate Paul Petit; and the apparently little-known Mark Andrew. At stake is a very likely seat for the first candidate, and an outside chance for the second.

• The Sydney Morning Herald has carried a piece from NSW Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell outlining the party’s position on campaign finance reform: caps on spending extending to third parties, caps on donations and bans on donations from other than individual citizens, tighter regulation of lobbyists and extension of Independent Commission Against Corruption powers to cover the nexus between donations and government decisions.

• Mumble man Peter Brent gives the once-over to the recent Essential Research survey on which leader is best equipped to handle “issues of national importance”, noting how much these questions are influenced by incumbency.

Courtesy of the latest Democratic Audit of Australia update:

• Last month’s Audit seminar on campaign finance, Dollars and Democracy: How Best to Regulate Money in Australian Politics, will be the subject of tonight’s episode of The National Interest on Radio National from 6pm. A fortnight ago, Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn appeared on the program discussing enrolment procedures and electoral boundaries.

• The Audit’s submission to the Victorian Electoral Matters Committee inquiry into the Kororoit by-election gets it right on proposals to tighten laws on misleading campaign advertising, namely that the cure would be worse than the disease.

• Brian Costar discusses campaign finance reform on Meet the Press.

• The Queensland Government has published its green paper on “a range of topics including political donations and fundraising, lobbying, whistleblowing and pecuniary interest registers”.

• Norm Kelly argues the merits of a ban on overseas donations in Australian Policy Online.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,259 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

Comments Page 4 of 26
1 … 3 4 5 … 26

  2. [I actually went into medicine because I wanted to be a psychiatrist.]

    Lucky you didn’t Diogenes. Two of my schoolmates did. One topped himself and the other has spent the last twenty years in a Mental Institution.

    I think it takes a very special personality to delve into the inner workings of troubled minds on a daily basis and not be affected yourself.

  3. [I think it takes a very special personality to delve into the inner workings of troubled minds on a daily basis and not be affected yourself.]
    I suspect that, like social workers, those who have their own issues are drawn to these fields.

  5. “The debt” is like a figure from Halloween. Is it real? Has it just been made up by those scary people in the Opposition, who will say anything to get a headline? Once the economy starts growing again and the budget tracks back to surplus, all talk of debt will seem like the irrelevant scare-mongering that it is.

  6. #154, we roam the oceans and befriend to all people and speak their languages. Unfortunately, our chinese friends do not treat us well in the Yangtze River. We do swear at them now and then.

  7. The debt and deficit are likely to be a lot smaller than estimated considering the economy has kept on growing.

    The MYEFO in November will probably reveal better numbers.

  9. [“Rape, even gang rape, is not unknown among other wild animals. But dolphins have perfected the practice. The team doing the herding is often shadowed at some distance by another. If outsiders try to steal the first team’s victim, the back-up group will come to the rescue – not of the female, but of their male friends.”

    The Economist, the “Science and technology” section, “Sisterhood is powerful”, 3rd August 1991.]

  10. Finns, have you heard about “The Cove”? ….documentary about the slaughter of bottle-nose dolphins in Japan…got a lot of airtime on News Radio today.

  13. #
    “157
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, August 21, 2009 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    The debt and deficit are likely to be a lot smaller than estimated considering the economy has kept on growing.

    The MYEFO in November will probably reveal better numbers.”

    And Glenn Stephens agrees with you, SO. By then end of 2010 the economy should be back on a 3.0% plus growth path again…..let’s hope anyway. There are problems in NSW, but hopefully things will track up there too.

  14. From the Koori Mail headlines:

    FEDERAL Indigenous Affairs Minister Jenny Macklin has promised to make public the report from a review of the embattled $672 million Strategic Indigenous Housing and Infrastructure Program (SIHIP). Ms Macklin says she expects to receive the report next week.

    I wonder if the important questions will be answered in this report? Possibly not, if it is to be made public so unconditionally…

  16. ” 148 scorpio Posted Friday, August 21, 2009 at 8:54 pm …. I have had quite serious health problems for over three years now…”

    Sorry to hear this scorpio. I hope you’re coming right.

  20. [Turn your spellchecker on, It’s Time!]
    It’s on. I assumed it was showing it’s usual ignorance. Maybe glasses on nose instead of in hand may be a solution!

  21. Just before the China Gas deal, India also signed a similar deal and not much was written about it. And now, I know why.

    India’s deal: 1.5m tonnes for 20 years = 30m tonnes for $20,500m = $683 per tonne.

    [New Delhi: India’s Petronet LNG has signed a $20.5-billion gas purchasing agreement with Australia’s ExxonMobil, the first long-term gas contract between the two countries.

    According to the agreement, signed Aug 10 in Perth, ExxonMobil will sell around 1.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually from the Gorgon project in western Australia to Petoronet for 20 years.

    Petronet is a privately registered company promoted by state-run oil firms. ]

    http://www.headlinesindia.com/business-news/petroleum-and-natural-gas/india-australia-sign-205-bn-gas-deal-20109.html

    China’s deal: 2.25m tonnes for 20 years = 45m tonnes for $41,000m = $911 per tonne.

    [PERTH (Reuters) – Australia and China struck their biggest trade deal ever on Tuesday, as the world’s top two most valuable listed oil companies, ExxonMobil (XOM.N) and PetroChina (601857.SS) inked a $41 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal.

    Under the agreement, PetroChina will buy 2.25 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of gas from Exxon’s share of gas from the proposed Gorgon LNG project for a period of 20 years.

    The massive Gorgon project off western Australia, which has a proposed capacity of 15 mtpa, is operated by Chevron Corp CXV.N with a 50 percent stake. Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) and Exxon each own hold 25 percent.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/americasDealsNews/idUSTRE57H2VZ20090818

    No wonder China is really pissed-off with us. we have been ripping them off. And some of the bloggers on the sina.com site are really pissed off too.

  23. It’s strange how fiddling with glasses enhances thought processes sometimes!

    Bifocals, schooners, right across the spectrum.

  24. Scorpio,
    I enjoy your posts as I’m sure most folks here do so please don’t you be going anywhere you hear me 🙂 you’d be missed!
    I know what you mean about some posters getting you going, me too, I took the bait a few times to their taunts but I can’t be bothered anymore. I too have thought of giving the site a miss sometimes but I’d miss hearing what most Bludgers had to say, especially Finns :kiss:

    Speaking of Finns I came across this in the Peoples Daily Online. It’s talking about the APEC CEO Summit to be held in Singapore in November
    [Distinguished speakers at the CEO Summit are expected to include President Hu Jintao of China, President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia, President Lee Myung-Bak of Korea, President Michelle Bachelet of Chile, President Felipe Calderon of Mexico, President Nguyen Minh Triet of Vietnam, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd of Australia, Prime Minister John Key of New Zealand, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of Thailand and Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore.]
    So that means Rudd will be at the G20 in the US next month, APEC in November and Copenhagen in December. With him on each occasion will be Obama and Hu. I wonder how the media will report on Rudd’s relationship with Hu. Bet we get a body language expert telling us how tense he is lol.
    Just as well he’ll have his best buddy Obama by his side.
    http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90858/90863/6735929.html

  25. [So that means Rudd will be at the G20 in the US next month, APEC in November and Copenhagen in December.]

    And Turnbull and co will start with the kevin 747 shite,ably assisted by their harpies in the MSM

  26. Thanks for that briefly. It’s hard at times. The health system here is nothing like ER. It tool 11.5 Months for my first appointment with a neurologist, 8.5 Months for the second one, both 800 kilometres away, visits to two other specialists, again a lengthy wait and eventually a diagnosis for something that not very much can be done about.

    But there are others that post here regularly that also have health difficulties and I do get bothered when they get some pretty shabby treatment at times here. One of the beauties of the internet is sometimes its failing when people don’t really know the circumstances of others that use it, often for a distracting interest and an opportunity to still engage with the wider world.

    Certainly a bit less partisan barracking and a bit more concern for the opinions of others would be welcome, especially by me as I do enjoy reading the well thought out opinions from others and links provided to issues and articles that I might otherwise miss.

    As I said before, many people owe William a vote of thanks for providing this forum which gives so much to so many.

  30. [India’s deal: 1.5m tonnes for 20 years = 30m tonnes for $20,500m = $683 per tonne.]

    The Finns, I thought Howard’s deal with China for $10b worth at 1 cent a litre stunk.

    That one is for .68 cents per litre. I would quickly get my car converted to LNG even if I could get it for 10 or 20 cents per litre.

    They’re certainly selling off the farm cheaply. The Indians and Chinese must be laughing their insides out at their good fortune!

  31. Ok, this is just getting stoopid:
    [Mr Turnbull this afternoon ruled out giving an Opposition position on Ms Kadeer’s visa.

    “I am not going to express an opinion. As the Leader of the Opposition I don’t want to make this issue a partisan issue,” he said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/21/2663373.htm

    So he’ll criticise the Govt for its handling of the issue, say they bungled it, but he won’t make it a partisan issue?

    Fool. And once again Rudd has shown them that he is better at politics than Turnbull will ever be.

  33. [And Turnbull and co will start with the kevin 747 shite,ably assisted by their harpies in the MSM]
    I bet they have a hostie lined up ready to bust into tears as we speak 😉

  34. Thanks for your kind words Vera.
    [Bet we get a body language expert telling us how tense he is lol.]

    That’ll be fun. Do you remember when they got that body language expert to decide whether Kevin Rudd came out with that “word” on Q&A a while ago.

    Now, that really was funny. The so-called expert came across as a proper goose.

  36. [“I am not going to express an opinion. As the Leader of the Opposition I don’t want to make this issue a partisan issue,” he said.]

    Just when you thought Turnbull couldn’t look any more inept…

  37. I bet they have a hostie lined up ready to bust into tears as we speak

    “…and then when he’s really hungry and wants his roast chicken, you give him the steak tartare instead, then spill it down his front! After that wobble your lower lip, and wait for the Government to fall!”

  39. Finns

    I think Psephos has provided pretty compelling evidence that your mates are the psychotic fiends we always suspected. I’m going to keep an even closer eye on you in the future. :kiss:

    scorpio

    [Lucky you didn’t Diogenes. Two of my schoolmates did. One topped himself and the other has spent the last twenty years in a Mental Institution.]

    You’re quite right. I couldn’t have handled it. The Professor of Psychiatry at my hospital jumped off the car park last year, followed by one of the psych patients a month later.

    Arguments and conflict are surprisingly distressing on the internet, even with people you don’t know. I feel quite sickened after “interacting” on the Bolt site even though I don’t know any of them and they are almost all complete idiots.

  41. [And once again Rudd has shown them that he is better at politics than Turnbull will ever be.]
    Turnbull is a merchant banker who shoe horned his way into parliament, he knows less about international relations then Julie Bishop.

  42. Here’s Ruddock (like he matters, but still)
    [However, when asked again if granting Ms Kadeer a visa was the right decision, he responded “it’s not a matter that can be dealt with by a simple yes/no answer”.]

    err except when you are in govt and you have to decide whether or not to grant someone a visa.

    Is the collective noun for a group of Liberals now a “Dill of Liberals”?

  44. [I feel quite sickened after “interacting” on the Bolt site even though I don’t know any of them and they are almost all complete idiots.]

    I very rarely go there because of just that. It’s hard to get your head right afterwards and the same goes for Pies blog!

  49. Geez Kersebleptes, you get your thrills in strange ways!!!

    Do you squeeze a bit of lemon juice every time on your herrings???

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 26
1 … 3 4 5 … 26