The past fortnight’s face-to-face Morgan polling has Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 58-42. Labor is down three points on the primary vote to 47.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent and the Greens are up one to 9.5 per cent. Apart from that:
Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the state of play after the redistribution proposal abolishing Laurie Ferguson’s Sydney seat of Reid:
There was a rumour he was eyeing Parramatta under a plan which would see the incumbent in that seat, Julie Owens, move to Greenway, a Liberal seat which is assuredly Labor thanks to the redistribution. For various reasons, that scenario is not going to fly. More solid is a plan, backed by Ferguson and his support group in the Left, for him to move to the western suburbs seat of Fowler. It is held by Julia Irwin but it is anticipated she will retire at the election. Irwin belongs to the Right but the Left controls the branches in Fowler and wants the seat back. Ferguson, however, faces resistance to getting any seat at all, and that includes from elements of his own faction. How do you think we would look in terms of renewal? said one powerbroker. Left kingmakers are leaning towards the Liverpool Mayor, Wendy Waller, for Fowler. The Right is pushing Ed Husic, who ran for Greenway in 2004 but was the victim of a race-hate letterbox campaign … Ultimately Rudd has the final say, a power the Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, could only dream of given the looming preselection fights among NSW Liberals. But it is a power that needs to be used wisely, sparingly and sensitively. Kevin should not be unfavourable to Laurie, warned a Ferguson friend, claiming Ferguson had helped Rudd win the leadership.
Very soon after the previous report appeared, it emerged the NSW Liberal Party was changing its rules to allow, as Imre Salusinszky of The Australian describes it, a three-quarter majority of the state executive to rapidly endorse a candidate on the recommendation of the state director and with the go-ahead of the state president and the party’s state and federal parliamentary leaders. The rules are ostensibly designed for by-elections or snap double dissolutions, but can essentially be used at the leaders’ pleasure. This places the party on a similar footing to Labor, whose national executive granted sweeping federal preselection powers to Kevin Rudd and five party powerbrokers earlier this year. The most obvious interpretation of the Liberal move is that it’s an attempt to stymie the influence of the hard right in party branches, and Salusinszky indeed reports the reform is expected to be opposed by a large part of the Right faction. However, the Labor parallel demonstrates it can equally be seen as part of a broader trend to centralisation necessitated by the ongoing decline in membership and resulting opportunities for branch-stacking.
From the previously cited Phillip Coorey article, Nathan Rees’s chief-of-staff Graeme Wedderburn is said to be assured of a winnable position on the Senate ticket at the next election: second if Steve Hutchins retires, third at the expense of incumbent Michael Forshaw if he doesn’t. Unless, of course, he can be persuaded to enter state politics, which is another option being floated.
Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald (again) notes that South Australian Senator Cory Bernardi is causing angst by agreeing to appear at a hard-right fundraiser in Cook, where federal member Scott Morrison continues to battle the forces that initially delivered preselection to factional operative Michael Towke before the 2007 election.
The ABC reports that Tony Crook, Goldfields pastoralist and candidate for Kalgoorlie at the 2008 state election, has been recruited to stand as Nationals candidate against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor. In response to a reader’s email, I recently had occasion to transpose the state election booth results on the new federal boundaries. In O’Connor, the Nationals would have polled 38.0 per cent to the Liberals’ 25.3 per cent and Labor’s 20.7 per cent. In Durack (successor to Barry Haase’s seat of Kalgoorlie), it was Labor 29.2 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Nationals 28.5 per cent. It should be noted that these numbers are heavily distorted by the presence of sitting Nationals members at state level, as well as the impact of state issues like Royalties for Regions and one-vote, one-value. The Nationals’ federal campaign in Western Australia will be bankrolled by litigious Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer, with the stated objective of gaining a Senate seat.
There is increasing talk that former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam will vacate his seat of Vaucluse at the next election. He faces multiple preselection challenges in any case, the apparent front-runner being University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton. Local paper the Wentworth Courier has taken aim at Debnam with an article and accompanying vox pop on his parliamentary inactivity during the current term.
Sonia Byrnes of the Cooma-Monaro Express reports that Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro will nominate for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which the party has won the right to contest without challenge from the Liberals. Labor’s Steve Whan holds the seat by 6.3 per cent.
Commenter Hamish Coffee relates that a local newspaper has Clover Moore dismissing rumours she won’t seek another term as state member for Sydney.
Ben Raue at The Tally Room reports that the South Australian Greens are conducting their preselection for the Legislative Council ticket at next year’s state election. The candidates are Carol Vincent, who as SA Farmers Federation chief executive offers an unusual pedigree for a Greens candidate; Tammy Jennings, one-time Democrat and current convenor of the state party; former convenor and unsuccessful 1997 lead candidate Paul Petit; and the apparently little-known Mark Andrew. At stake is a very likely seat for the first candidate, and an outside chance for the second.
The Sydney Morning Herald has carried a piece from NSW Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell outlining the party’s position on campaign finance reform: caps on spending extending to third parties, caps on donations and bans on donations from other than individual citizens, tighter regulation of lobbyists and extension of Independent Commission Against Corruption powers to cover the nexus between donations and government decisions.
Mumble man Peter Brent gives the once-over to the recent Essential Research survey on which leader is best equipped to handle issues of national importance, noting how much these questions are influenced by incumbency.
Courtesy of the latest Democratic Audit of Australia update:
Last month’s Audit seminar on campaign finance, Dollars and Democracy: How Best to Regulate Money in Australian Politics, will be the subject of tonight’s episode of The National Interest on Radio National from 6pm. A fortnight ago, Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn appeared on the program discussing enrolment procedures and electoral boundaries.
The Audit’s submission to the Victorian Electoral Matters Committee inquiry into the Kororoit by-election gets it right on proposals to tighten laws on misleading campaign advertising, namely that the cure would be worse than the disease.
Brian Costar discusses campaign finance reform on Meet the Press.
The Queensland Government has published its green paper on a range of topics including political donations and fundraising, lobbying, whistleblowing and pecuniary interest registers.
Norm Kelly argues the merits of a ban on overseas donations in Australian Policy Online.
The narrowing!
Well, looks like the Greens too quite a hit because of their stand. 🙂
Seriously though… This is getting boring, it’s ruined the mystery of who will win the next election.
Took, not too
I note that Objections to the draft Queensland Redistribution close at 6pm tonight. I assume they will be posted some time Monday.
Malcolm Turnbull will sleep soundly tonight knowing that the Coalition are on the way back.
[There was a rumour he was eyeing Parramatta under a plan which would see the incumbent in that seat, Julie Owens, move to Greenway, a Liberal seat which is assuredly Labor thanks to the redistribution. For various reasons, that scenario is not going to fly.]
I’d love to know what those “various reasons” are.
[From the previously cited Phillip Coorey article, Nathan Rees’s chief-of-staff Graeme Wedderburn is said to be assured of a winnable position on the Senate ticket at the next election: second if Steve Hutchins retires, third at the expense of incumbent Michael Forshaw if he doesn’t.]
So Faulkner gets top spot this time.
[and to save you the necessary effort]
Well that article says there are only 500 – 1000 Indigenous Muslims. Isn’t that lower than the stats Bill Bowe quoted?
[Of an estimated 500-1000 Indigenous Muslims in Australia (this figure includes those with Muslim descendents but who do not characterise themselves as practicing Muslims)]
Page 3.
It seems the honeymoon is over criers (Frank and GG) were wrong for the 2532535423th time. The Greens are still polling well above the 2007 result and pre-2007 election polls.
🙂
So O’Farrell says there will be:
So no caps on the number of capped donations from each individual citizen?
Fancy that.
Don’t know if this was mentioned but on Skynews interactive last night where you can read the top news stories, they said that the Nat(aloon)s were not present when the RET vote in the senate took place.
Dunno if’n the were in the dunny though 😀
Keeping themselves pure. In the dunny.
I suppose they were worried they’d all get solar panels or wind turbines forcibly installed on their heads if they stayed…
Is this the stupidest attack on Rudd ever?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25961177-29277,00.html
It makes no sense…
[they said that the Nat(aloon)s were not present when the RET vote in the senate took place.]
It was a very strange vote. The Greens ended the debate by saying how bad it is, but then didn’t vote against it.
If it is true that no Nats were in the chamber, then it seems Turnbull’s big victory was convincing them not to vote against it, rather than getting them to vote for it.
[Is this the stupidest attack on Rudd ever?]
Nah, that one from week or so ago quoting Michael Kroger having a go at Rudd was lamer.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25892010-601,00.html
Turnbull’s was to a Liberal party function, you expect him to say stupid things in front of the faithful.
Sky Poll
Do you think the Liberals and Nationals should ‘divorce’?
Yes 53
No 47
This was the Sky report on the senate vote on the RET I mentioned
[The vote was taken on voices alone, with most senators not required to attend. No Nationals senators were present for the vote.]
http://skynews.com.au/eco/article.aspx?id=364484
Astrobleme & ShowsOn @ 12 & 14,
The basis of the French Army’s military philosophy used to be that war was basically just a matter of “cran“, or guts.
All you had to do was find the enemy and then charge uphill into the machine-gun fire until victory came to you. Thought and planning were not strictly necessary…
And we thought Keating was keen on the French! The Coalition now think just like them.
For those who think that Labor is not doing anything to reduce greenhouse gases, this makes somewhat of a lie to that. And it doesn’t mention the two or three gas fired stations planned for Queensland and elsewhere.
[Queensland to clean up coal-fired power]
[QUEENSLAND will ban new coal-fired power stations except for those that can be fitted with clean coal technology.
The move institutionalises the technology in the nation’s major coal-producing state.
There are four new coal-fired power stations planned for the eastern seaboard — one each in Queensland and Victoria, and two in NSW — and all have provision for clean coal technology.
The Queensland ban is the centrepiece of the state government’s updated climate change strategy, announced yesterday, which allocates $87 million to new initiatives.
Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said she anticipated clean coal technology could be ready for widespread commercial use within five to 10 years, but acknowledged there was some way to go.
The one new coal-fired power station being planned for Queensland is at Wandoan on the Darling Downs, and it is already part of a carbon capture and storage scheme.
Ms Bligh said the private sector had acknowledged that a carbon trading scheme would mean the end of traditional coal-fired power stations, and the new rules would make Queensland’s position “absolutely clear”. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25959207-5013404,00.html
I must agree with Peter Costello that splitting the Coalition would be disastrous. The Joh for Canberra idiocy of the late 80s should have tought everyone a lesson by now.
19
The mess caused by Joh for Canberra was partly because it involved Joh and the majority urban capital other mainland states.
Ah, The Australian comes out with an excellent article, which says it how it is, not how the Age wants it to be:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25959234-5013404,00.html
Tasmanian Liberals publish Exclusive Brethren apology:
[Brethren members Roger Unwin and Graham Lewis have apologised for the ads that said Greens policies in relation to transgender and inter-sex people would “ruin our families and society”.
The apology was made to settle an anti-discrimination case brought by a transgender woman.
But it has been revealed that the apology, published yesterday in three Tasmanian daily newspapers, was paid for by an advertising agency on behalf of the Liberals.]
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25961428-29277,00.html
[I must agree with Peter Costello that splitting the Coalition would be disastrous. ]
So should the Nationals be allowed to vote against policies that the coalition party room supports?
[Ah, The Australian comes out with an excellent article, which says it how it is, not how the Age wants it to be:]
And yet your hero Tony Abbott wants to remove means testing of government hand outs so that the taxes of low and middle income earners subsidise the family payments and semi-private health insurance premiums of high income earners.
scorpio,
You may have seen it (and it doesn’t say that much in any case), but here’s a link to a small Xstrata puff-piece .PDF on the Wandoan project…
http://www.wandoancoalproject.com.au/userfiles/file/Wandoan_Coal_EIS_Factsheet_01.pdf
21
The article shows that its subtitle is not backed up by the evidence being reported in the first sentence. It claims that the number reliant on welfare payments has gone down then says that the evidence shows that welfare as the primary income source is down. There would be plenty of people who are on welfare to top up insufficient wages. The article also does not mention middle class welfare.
Thanks for that, Kersebleptes. Typical of News Ltd though, there was one glaring error in that report. They said that all coal fired power stations are Government owned.
That is quite wrong, Gladstone and Collinsville power stations have been privately owned for a number of years now.
Bob et al
look, guys, play fair.
When the Greens vote falls by a per cent or two, we ALPers are told we can’t make anything of it, as it’s within the margin of error. I have therefore, in the name of fairness, bitten back a couple of comments I felt like making.
But now Astrobleme points to a 1% rise in the Green vote as a sign that things are hunky dory in Greenland and bob points out it’s above the results recorded at the 2007 election.
Both these statements are OK in themselves but not in the context where we’ve been told to disregard Green polls which are within the margin of error, as is the case with both those statements.
I don’t know why News Ltd bothers to connect to the intertubes. Their journalists are too lazy to even make a cursory check on the information they are about to publish. How hard can it be. It took me about one minute or less.
[The biggest loser in Queensland from an emissions trading scheme may be the state government, as it owns every coal-fired power station in the state.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25959207-5013404,00.html
[Collinsville Power Station operates as an intermediate plant, and is fuelled by locally mined coal and it has a total output of 180 MW. It has four 30 MW and one 60 MW generator units, which were completely refurbished in 1998 through a joint venture with Transfield Collinsville Pty Limited and NRGenerating Holdings.]
http://www.tsinfrastructurefund.com/page/Infrastructure_Assets/Collinsville_Power_Station
[The Gladstone Power Station is Queensland’s largest power station, with six coal powered steam turbines generating a maximum of 1,680 MW of electricity.[1] Power from the station was first generated in 1976.
The plant was privatised in 1994. It is currently owned by a group, including Rio Tinto Aluminium, NRG Energy and other Japanese partners.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gladstone_Power_Station,_Queensland
scorpio,
They must have been working off a 1976 press release!
Zoomster
Play fair? NO WAY!
But seriously I hoped my smiley face indicated that it was tongue in cheek…
We all freely acknowledge the margin of error etc.
However, because the Greens vote has stayed around the same value (using the MOE) we can say that the Greens haven’t lost support. Which is what a lot of people here were predicting.
[The article shows that its subtitle is not backed up by the evidence being reported in the first sentence. ]
I agree. If you look at the PDF, between 2002/3 and 2007/8, the number of households who receive more than 50% of their income from government payments declined from 26.5% to 22.7%, which is mainly attributed to a rise in income, with the biggest rise to high income earners.
However, the number who receive government payments than comprise less than 50%, but above 1% of their income increased from 26.2% to 31.4%. Which is indicative of the way the Howard government increased access to un-meanstested welfare.
The PDF is here:
http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&65230_2007-08.pdf&6523.0&Publication&32F9145C3C78ABD3CA257617001939E1&&2007-08&20.08.2009&Latest
I don’t think Peter Garrett will have to put much effort onto the approval for the Gorgon Gas Plant on Barrow Island. It is quite large, 220 sq klms and has had extensive industrial facilities there for some time.
[Oil was discovered on the island in commercial quantities in 1964 by West Australian Petroleum Pty Ltd (WAPET), and the first oil field was established shortly after.[4] In 1995, there were 430 wells producing oil and natural gas across most of the southern half of the island.[5] The site has been Australia’s leading producer of oil.
Oil tankers are filled by a submarine pipeline that extends 10 km offshore. WAPET established a 200-room apartment complex for workers on the island[6]. A private airport facility known as Barrow Island Airport (IATA: BWB, ICAO: YBWX) was also established to transport workers and equipment from Karratha and Perth.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrow_Island_%28Western_Australia%29
Those dratted minor parties! Dodging behind the margin of error whenever one of the majors starts swinging, then popping back out again smirking…
We really need a Nats poster on this site. Their analysis of polling shifts would make for some great lols.
Scorpio
I agree that Garrett will approve it, but Chevron should be held to maintain the no-foreign species status of the Island. It is rare to have communities in Australia that haven’t been affected by invading species.
Kersebleptes
As a Greens supporter it’s hard to take any polls seriously. They’d need to take a much bigger sample to get clear results… Or we just work off the longer term ‘trend’. In this case it seems to be holding slightly higher than the last election. Who knows if it’ll stay that high?
Oh dear, it would appear that Julia Gillard’s acquiescence to the tactic of comparing Turnbull to Latham rather than defending the latter from the slanderous suggestion has raised his ire.
Is the first time he’s had a crack at her? I’d be surprised if it was.
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/latham-lashes-out-at-hypocrite-gillard-20090821-esfc.html
I know nothing about Crook, but surely he can’t be worse than Tuckey?!
Astrobleme,
Yeah, fair enough, too. Both Greens & Labor will be sweating on them next year, though. Even if they have swornto themselves not to…
Agree with you on Barrow Island, as well. Wallaby Jack put in some good work there, though he got excoriated for it…
Astrobleme @35, conditions to that effect have already been stipulated by the WA EPA:
http://portal.environment.wa.gov.au/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/DOE_ADMIN/ENVIRONMENT_CONDITIONS_REPOSITORY/00800_2_.PDF
[We really need a Nats poster on this site. Their analysis of polling shifts would make for some great lols.]
Zoomster, Paul Nash drops by here occasionally and drops a couple of hand-grenades and generally departs promptly before other posters can nail him. That’s a pity though because I for one, would like him to try and justify his posts!
Rewi
It is a done deal, there’s no way the Govt would block something this big. And I support them in supporting it.
Let’s hope Chevron get it right!
Astrobleme,
I am pretty confident that Peter Garrett will ensure that every precaution is taken to keep non native species out.
I was impressed to see that none have been allowed on there since development started in 1964.
Apparently they wouldn’t even allow workers there to bring in foreign plants for a flower garden.
confessions,
It’ll be Crook verses Crock!! What fun!
[A spokeswmoman said Ms Gillard was ”well known for her … humour.’]
but Latham has apparently lost his.
Why oh why do blondes seem to often reinforce a common perception held about them. Caroline Overington is a repeat offender as her response to a commenter shows once again!
[I often wonder why people are so bitter on these blogs, indeed, why they even bother to read them if they dislike it so much. Oh well, must have a lot of time on their hands. Nonetheless, an interesting article on the vagaries of those we pay to look after our country for us. I wonder how many of them have even been to Barrow Island. I have and it is a dust bowl in the dry and a hot humid hole in the wet. Also, it is not far from the Monte Bello Islands to the North, which must glow in the dark after what the Brits did to them in the 50s.
Back to Barrow Is, whilst there is sparse vegetation on the island, you are flat out finding a tree to fell, so a Beaver would not survive there long. ]
[Caroline Overington
Fri 21 Aug 09 (03:17pm)
That is hilarious. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_lot_of_hot_air_about_gas_drives_senators_animal_crackers/
Scorpio
Get-Up isn’t linked with any political party, they just don’t like the conservatives or the ETS.
Of course the Greens try to win seats, get over it. Being against the ALP does not mean you support the conservatives, I would have thought that would be pretty obvious. Bob Brown said as far back as his and Singer’s 1996 manifesto, and possibly even further back, that the Greens are aiming for government one day.
NSW ALP is rather awful, I suspect I’d preference them if the election looked close and my electorate looked close, otherwise I would probably just vote Greens 1 and no further preferences.
William, Tony Crook was also the Nationals number one candidate for the Senate in 2007. If they’re really hopeful of gaining a seat there, it’s interesting that he hasn’t been given the opportunity to try again. Perhaps he/they rate his chances of winning in O’Connor as higher than the party winning in the Senate.
[Back to Barrow Is, whilst there is sparse vegetation on the island, you are flat out finding a tree to fell, so a Beaver would not survive there long.]
Caroline and Erica seem to have a thing about beaver.
“the Greens are aiming for government one day”
They wouldn’t make a Mission Impossible movie over it. Not even with Tom Cruise. It would be too far fetched. 😈