The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor’s two-party lead at a commanding 59-41, up from 57-43 last week and 56-44 the week before. Also featured are questions on whether the Liberals should support (51 per cent) or oppose (20 per cent) the government’s plans for an emissions trading scheme, whether the federal government should take over health services from the states (62 per cent support, 11 per cent oppose), whether they should take over all hospital services from the states (57 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose), how much support the government should provide for Australians who get into various kinds of trouble overseas, whether 16 and 17 year olds should be allowed to vote (13 per cent yes, 79 per cent no), and whether respondents feel like they’re being worked too hard (yes). Elsewhere:
Mia Handshin has unexpectedly withdrawn from her bid to win Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt, where she fell 0.9 per cent short in 2007. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail said the announcement came within hours of her being queried by the paper over her family’s involvement with the real estate group of former Entrepreneur of the Year Cathy Jayne Pearce, the collapse of which has cost investors more than $20 million. However, Michael Owen of The Australian reports Handshin’s withdrawal has sparked speculation she will contest an eastern suburbs seat, Hartley, at the March state election, and the Hartley MP, Grace Portolesi, 41, will run in Sturt against Mr Pyne at the next federal election (UPDATE: The ABC reports Portolesi denying she is interested in federal politics). A Labor hardhead quoted by Christian Kerr in the same paper described Handshin as a potential premier. Kerr said there had been earlier suggestions from the Labor camp that Handshin should replace perennial back-bencher Vini Ciccarello in the state seat of Norwood. However, with Ciccarello’s nomination confirmed this seems out in the short term, and former member Greg Crafter hopes to use his clout in the branches to eventually secure the seat for his son Sam, an executive with gas giant Santos and a former adviser to Premier Mike Rann. It should be noted that every seat named is none too safe for Labor: Sturt has been won by the party twice since its creation in 1949, most recently in 1969, Hartley was gained from the Liberals in the 2006 landslide, and Norwood was won narrowly when the Rann government came to power in 2002 and gave Labor its smallest swing in Adelaide in 2006.
Andrew Landeryou at VexNews provides complete lists of candidates for the contested Liberal preselections in Wannon, Higgins, Aston and the state seat of Sandringham. Higgins and Sandringham are two-horse races, the former between front-runner Kelly O’Dwyer and Andrew Abercrombie, the latter between incumbent Murray Thompson and challenger Margaret Fitzherbert. In Wannon, the previously discussed Daniel Tehan, Rod Nockles, Louise Staley, Stephen Mitchell, Hugh Koch, Matt Makin, Elizabeth Matuschka and Katrina Rainsford are joined by Simon Price (unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur, previously mentioned as an aspirant for McArthur’s old seat of Corangamite) and one David Clark. In Aston, Nick McGowan, Sue McMillan, Darren Pearce and Alan Tudge are joined by proverbial bad penny Ken Aldred and a squadron of little-known contenders: Neil Angus, Terry Barnes, Michael Flynn, Michael Kabos and James Matheson.
Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that former WA Police Union president Mike Dean has joined the Liberal Party, but will not as earlier rumoured contest the seat of Hasluck at the next federal election. Dean says he has decided not to proceed due to personal issues, but does not rule out a future career in state politics. Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported last month that state Labor MPs John Quigley and Ben Wyatt said Dean had asked them for support in winning Labor preselection for Swan. He told Spagnolo that some in the ALP had wrongfully presumed he was one of them and that he had broken some hearts I didn’t expect to break.
The Sunday Times also reports that Gallop-Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan has delayed her decision on whether to join Kevin Rudd in Canberra. It is open knowledge that the option of contesting Canning is available to her, but she is believed to be weighing up the option of staying in state politics with a view to assuming the leadership.
Michael Stedman of The Mercury reports that Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett has floated the possibility of publicly funded election campaigns and spending caps for state lower house elections. His comments were in response to complaints by Peter Whish-Wilson, Greens candidate for Windermere during the May periodical upper house elections, about the stringent spending cap of $12,000 which exists for upper house elections.
Speaking of the Tasmanian Legislative Council, Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin pulled off a historic win for the party in Saturday’s Pembroke by-election, which you can read all about here.
2,380 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”
Fascinating bit on Handshin/Portolesi and Sturt/Hartley William, thanks for that.
Greens vote sounds a little high at 7%.
High? I think you mean low. Either way it’s just an Essential Poll… not much credibility to it. Newspoll is where it’s at.
Newspoll, Essential and Morgan have all recorded a fall in the Green vote recently.
ruawake, where has Newspoll shown a fall in the Green vote? The Newspoll Green vote is almost always 9-12%, well within MoE.
Newspoll, Essential and Morgan have all recorded a fall in the Green vote recently.]
He will be mortified – St Bob’s Halo has been tarnished 🙂
And much higher than prior to the previous election I should note.
527 on the previous general thread
I am sure that the marriage power in the constitution gives the Commonwealth some power to define marriage differently to Common law. The law passed in 2004 replaced the Common Law definition with a legislated definition similar to the Common Law definition to prevent the High Court from ruling that the Common Law definition had changed (as well as preventing the recognition certain foreign marriages). I am sure that the High Court would rule on the side of the Commonwealth if they legislated to change the definition of marriage. The Common Law is law made by judges where there is no legislation.
[I am sure that the marriage power in the constitution gives the Commonwealth some power to define marriage differently to Common law.]
No it does not.
Do you have evidence for that claim?
It seems like the electorate has made up its mind about Turnbull and his Band Of Merry Obstructionists.
More proof – if any was needed – that Liberal anger is no substitute for hard work. Or (to put it another way) Liberal anger is their substitute for hard work.
Will David Burchell write another piece on Cicero to explain all this away? And will we get to go to the toga party?
WOndering about tonight’s Australian Story. Surely Turnbull would have been the one who gave the ok for them to come and film (I’d say Oz Story would have a standing offer with both him and Rudd). So why did Turnbull pick that week to invite the cameras in?
Did he perhaps think this was to be his crowning moment?
Just wondering – would be interested to know when it was all organised.
BB I love how the right are tryingt o bring down Rudd a peg by comparing him to Hawke.
Few politicians in Aussie history have been as big on the charisma as Bob, but it’s amazing how Bob’s faults will be viewed as treasures if it gives them a chance to criticise Rudd.
You’re chanelling Glen and other poll result deniers. All we need is your chant of cleancoal butter.
BTW, all those, seems those lazy hazy crazy days of 60/40 to Labor you said would never return are back.
Greens on the slide is no surprise given their pathetic response on ETS.
[BTW, all those, seems those lazy hazy crazy days of 60/40 to Labor you said would never return are back.]
Where? Essential always polls higher than Newspoll and Galaxy.
Essential and Roy Morgan are useless, Galaxy is better, Newspoll is best.
BB @ 11
Toga parties were all the rage in the late sixties. I have fond memories of the Round House at UNSW. Mind you, there wasn’t much Cicero; more “peel me a grape.”
We had this discussion a few days ago. The High Court has exclusive power to decide the meaning of terms in the Constitution.
Last 25 Newspoll Green primaries starting from the last one: 9, 11, 10, 11, 10, 9, 11, 9, 9, 8, 10, 9, 8, 10, 10, 11, 9, 9, 13, 10, 11, 8, 9, 10, 11.
The small swings are well within MoE. And the average is far higher than during any previous parliament.
I know it hurts GG, but don’t cry. You’ll just have to deal with either the Greens or the coalition in future parliaments. Get used to it 🙂
Not according to William and Possum who would have nothing to do with them if they were shonky in any way.
Essential is as reliable an indicator as the other regular polls. It’s just you don’t like the latest round of numbers.
Infact, each one is higher than any in any previous parliament.
[Not according to William and Possum who would have nothing to do with them if they were shonky in any way.]
It’s their job to display all polls. Even the pathetic Roy Morgans. You labelling RM reliable? Bwahahahahahahahahaha!
[Essential and Roy Morgan are useless, Galaxy is better, Newspoll is best.]
Poor man blames the messenger, Bob. (espeically without anything except opinion to back up the attack)
[Poor man blames the messenger, Bob. (espeically without anything except opinion to back up the attack)]
I’m not complaining about the 2pp. It’s a good thing!
I love it when people try to diss polls 😀
[I love it when people try to diss polls]
I love it when people try to justify a small minor party swing in any poll 😀 Minor parties have a much larger MoE than major parties.
Doesn’t make all that much difference tho. The only thing that matters is the near certainty that the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate after the next election. Then they’ll have to compromise with either the Greens or the coalition to pass legislation.
Talk about biting the hand that feeds you! 😀
[Labor MP Grace Portolesi has ruled out a tilt at federal politics in the north-eastern seat of Sturt, which is held by Liberal Christopher Pyne.
There has been some speculation Ms Portolesi might contest the seat after former ALP candidate Mia Handshin rejected an offer to run again.
But Ms Portolesi says she is happy in state politics in SA serving her eastern suburbs electorate of Hartley.
“I have no interest in Canberra,” she said.]
[The only thing that matters is the near certainty that the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate after the next election.]
True, but that is when it gets difficult for them. 🙂
Assumes Labor will preference the Greens. Labor with a primary in the high 40’s can pick who it wants to partner. Greens don’t look very pretty atm.
[True, but that is when it gets difficult for them.]
Not nearly as much as it was for the Democrats. The Democrat vote was made up of 60/40 to Labor. The Green vote is made up of 80/20 to Labor. The Democrats couldn’t be seen as anything but centrist to keep both shades of voters onside. The Greens can stay on the left, it’s what’s expected of them by their supporters.
[Assumes Labor will preference the Greens.]
Of course they will. They learnt their lesson after Steve Fielding. The Greens are the best fit for Labor in the Senate. They’ve sided with Labor in the Senate more than Fielding or Xenophon or the coalition.
[Of course they will.]
Of course they will!!! Who else is there? the Democrats????
On the link Bushfire Bill provided at #11 above, one of the comment posters referred to Gillard as a former communist.
Is that the usual venting of spleen by the right, or has she ever been a member of that party?
[On the link Bushfire Bill provided at #11 above, one of the comment posters referred to Gillard as a former communist.
Is that the usual venting of spleen by the right, or has she ever been a member of that party?]
Yes and no.
[Now for the first of our campaign mid-week guests, the deputy Labor leader Julia Gillard finds herself in the strange position tonight of having to justify her past association with a group known as the Socialist Forum, which the Treasurer and Deputy Liberal Leader Peter Costello describes as a radical left-wing group linked to the Communist Party.]
Thanks Bob @ 27, I’ve added an update.
I hope she sues the mongrel.
[I have no interest in Canberra,” she said.]
Oh come on! It’s not that bad… we’ve got the War Memorial!!!
“Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Communist Party?”
A famous question.
I remember when the US Immigration entry form asked the question [from memory] “Have you ever visited a communist country?”
I wonder if it still does?
Just a note to thank everyone and let you know that I’ve received Crikey Whitey’s document of all the bludgers comments to Judy Barnes and her family. I will attach them to the white roses for her funeral on Wednesday.
[I remember when the US Immigration entry form asked the question [from memory] “Have you ever visited a communist country?”
I wonder if it still does?]
The High Court does have the final say over what is constitutional and what is not but they will allow some leeway over definitions. The High Court would not rule out marriage definition changes such as same-gender marriages or polygamy as they are for the same general purpose as one man plus one woman and there are other jurisdictions with marriages of that type. It would however likely rule out federal civil unions (unless the states referred the powers) or some kind of attempt to use the power for only slightly related things.
On the subject of US immigration questions.
The are you here to overthrow the U.S. government question (do they still have that) would be best answered with no, I should but I can`t be bothered.
I thought Possum did a thing awhile back which showed that all 4 major polling companies were credible?… I’ll go have a look but I’m sure that’s what he found when did his thing on the numbers.
We can only assume if Turnbull doesnt make the Liberal Party assessment of the Coalition’s defeat in 2007 public that it is not good whatsoever…by not making it public shows that the Federal leadership team are a bunch of gutless wonders…
Posted Monday, August 3, 2009 at 6:32 pm | Permalink
Just a note to thank everyone and let you know that I’ve received Crikey Whitey’s document of all the bludgers comments to Judy Barnes and her family. I will attach them to the white roses for her funeral on Wednesday.]
Many thanks Dio, very gracious of you.
[shows that the Federal leadership team are a bunch of gutless wonders]
You’re finally catching up to the rest of us Glen. Well done 🙂
My guess is that if the report is honest then Howard’s poor performance and inflated ego in his last term would feature strongly. I’d also expect Costello to feature as a spoiler popping up in the wrong way at the wrong time. I’m surprised that Costello is the one making noise at the moment. Maybe he is again attempting to hurt the party?
[Just a note to thank everyone and let you know that I’ve received Crikey Whitey’s document of all the bludgers comments to Judy Barnes and her family. I will attach them to the white roses for her funeral on Wednesday.]
Great work, Dio and Crikey. Judy will be sadly missed by all the long standing posters on PB, even the ones she gave an occasional rocket to when they stepped over the line.
By the way the Libs have acted in Opposition the report concluded that the electorate got it wrong, all the Libs had to do to regain power was sit still while Labor cocked it up and that the only policy development required was unceasing character assassination of Rudd and the Government.
[Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin pulled off a historic win for the party in Saturday’s Pembroke by-election]
“Historic”? An upper house by-election in Tasmania? How does it compare, say, to the French Revolution?
[I am sure that the marriage power in the constitution gives the Commonwealth some power to define marriage differently to Common law.]
Tom, neither you nor anyone else knows what the High Court would do if confronted with this question, so please stop making authoritative statements about things you can’t possibly know.