Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor’s two-party lead at a commanding 59-41, up from 57-43 last week and 56-44 the week before. Also featured are questions on whether the Liberals should support (51 per cent) or oppose (20 per cent) the government’s plans for an emissions trading scheme, whether the federal government should take over health services from the states (62 per cent support, 11 per cent oppose), whether they should take over all hospital services from the states (57 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose), how much support the government should provide for Australians who get into various kinds of trouble overseas, whether 16 and 17 year olds should be allowed to vote (13 per cent yes, 79 per cent no), and whether respondents feel like they’re being worked too hard (yes). Elsewhere:

• Mia Handshin has unexpectedly withdrawn from her bid to win Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt, where she fell 0.9 per cent short in 2007. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail said the announcement came “within hours” of her being queried by the paper over her family’s involvement with the real estate group of former Entrepreneur of the Year Cathy Jayne Pearce, the collapse of which has cost investors more than $20 million. However, Michael Owen of The Australian reports Handshin’s withdrawal has “sparked speculation she will contest an eastern suburbs seat, Hartley, at the March state election, and the Hartley MP, Grace Portolesi, 41, will run in Sturt against Mr Pyne at the next federal election” (UPDATE: The ABC reports Portolesi denying she is interested in federal politics). A “Labor hardhead” quoted by Christian Kerr in the same paper described Handshin as “a potential premier”. Kerr said there had been earlier suggestions from the Labor camp that Handshin should replace perennial back-bencher Vini Ciccarello in the state seat of Norwood. However, with Ciccarello’s nomination confirmed this “seems out in the short term”, and former member Greg Crafter hopes to use his “clout in the branches” to eventually secure the seat for his son Sam, “an executive with gas giant Santos and a former adviser to Premier Mike Rann”. It should be noted that every seat named is none too safe for Labor: Sturt has been won by the party twice since its creation in 1949, most recently in 1969, Hartley was gained from the Liberals in the 2006 landslide, and Norwood was won narrowly when the Rann government came to power in 2002 and gave Labor its smallest swing in Adelaide in 2006.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews provides complete lists of candidates for the contested Liberal preselections in Wannon, Higgins, Aston and the state seat of Sandringham. Higgins and Sandringham are two-horse races, the former between front-runner Kelly O’Dwyer and Andrew Abercrombie, the latter between incumbent Murray Thompson and challenger Margaret Fitzherbert. In Wannon, the previously discussed Daniel Tehan, Rod Nockles, Louise Staley, Stephen Mitchell, Hugh Koch, Matt Makin, Elizabeth Matuschka and Katrina Rainsford are joined by Simon Price (unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur, previously mentioned as an aspirant for McArthur’s old seat of Corangamite) and one David Clark. In Aston, Nick McGowan, Sue McMillan, Darren Pearce and Alan Tudge are joined by proverbial bad penny Ken Aldred and a squadron of little-known contenders: Neil Angus, Terry Barnes, Michael Flynn, Michael Kabos and James Matheson.

• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that former WA Police Union president Mike Dean has joined the Liberal Party, but will not as earlier rumoured contest the seat of Hasluck at the next federal election. Dean says he has decided not to proceed due to personal issues, but does not rule out a future career in state politics. Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported last month that state Labor MPs John Quigley and Ben Wyatt said Dean had asked them for support in winning Labor preselection for Swan. He told Spagnolo that some in the ALP had “wrongfully presumed he was one of them” and that he had “broken some hearts I didn’t expect to break”.

• The Sunday Times also reports that Gallop-Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan “has delayed her decision on whether to join Kevin Rudd in Canberra”. It is open knowledge that the option of contesting Canning is available to her, but she is believed to be weighing up the option of staying in state politics with a view to assuming the leadership.

• Michael Stedman of The Mercury reports that Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett has floated the possibility of publicly funded election campaigns and spending caps for state lower house elections. His comments were in response to complaints by Peter Whish-Wilson, Greens candidate for Windermere during the May periodical upper house elections, about the stringent spending cap of $12,000 which exists for upper house elections.

• Speaking of the Tasmanian Legislative Council, Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin pulled off a historic win for the party in Saturday’s Pembroke by-election, which you can read all about here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,380 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  2. According to ABC TV, Ian McPhee’s report is out tomorrow and it “contains no comfort for Mr Turnbull.”

  3. [“Historic”? An upper house by-election in Tasmania?]

    Some site, possibly Crikey, said that it was only the second time in the Tasmanian Legislative Council that a Liberal had been elected.

  5. Us immigration has improved a lot, we are now visitors, we used to be aliens. The photo of the president has gone, ( half way through George bushes term it was replaced with Schwarzenegger’s photo, but even that has gone now).

    They photograph and finger print you, but the staff are polite. You have to fill in a online form before visiting now as well as fill out the green form, same questions, for the current question google

    visa waiver online application

    And fill in the form.

  8. Tom Hawkins

    I wonder if it doesn’t vindicate Costello and slam Howard and the rest for not booting him?… hence the non-dissemination

  10. [Marriage as a subject of legislative power embraces those relationships which the law … recognises as the relationships which subsist between husband, wife and the children of the marriage. Statutes enacted in purported exercise of the power cannot extend the scope of the power: only those relationships which are already embraced within the subject are amenable to regulation by a law enacted in exercise of the power]

    [In Hyde v. Hyde and Woodmansee, Lord Penzance defined marriage as ‘the voluntary union for life of one man and one woman, to the exclusion of all others’ and that definition has been followed in this country and by this Court]

    Justice Brennan – Chief Justice of Australia.

    The defence rests. 😉

  11. RU, where is that quote from? It powerfully reinforces the view that an Act extending the marriage law to same-sex couples would be challenged as unconstitutional, and quite possibly successfully.

  13. I’m only guessing of course but I reckon the AG report will clear Rudd and Swan of any wrong doing….period…no mention of Turnbull at all.

    Based on the report Labor will again attack Turnbull for his reckless comments of a few weeks ago.

    The real wrecking of what remains of Turnbull’s cred will come out of the AFP report.

  15. [The report should have included W. Swan IMHO…

    Regardless Turnbull isnt going anywhere unfortunately…]

    Glen

    what has swan done?

  16. I’m surprised that no-one has mentioned this. Pesce is an obstetrician which makes his comments more interesting. My policy on this one is to have no policy.

    [Dr Andrew Pesce, elected AMA federal president in May, told the Sunday Herald Sun that IVF should not be a “lifestyle choice” and use of the treatment by same sex couples went against the “natural order”.

    “Fertility treatment is there to treat diseases that cause infertility, it shouldn’t be there as a lifestyle choice,” Dr Pesce said.

    “For example, single women (who choose IVF) don’t have a disease, they just don’t have a partner. Same-sex couples, they don’t have disease but they are using an option that gets around the natural order of things.]

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25870074-36398,00.html

  17. Thanks RU.

    Presumably the AFP’s remit included tracking down the Treasury Mole. If, as seems likely, Grech turns out to be Mole (thus making Turnbull Mr Toad and Abetz Ratty), the Libs will be in even more trouble.

  19. Tom,

    I read this morning that the AG report used its coercive powers to extract information. Given Turnbull has said he wasn’t interviewed then it is reasonable to assume that Grech may have been forced to “spill the beans”. Swan was acting very confidently yesterday so one might assume that he has been exonerated. Also he made comments about the Liberal party and Turnbull being implicated.

  20. Thank you, Diogenes.

    And thank you, William.

    Polyquats, I did not mean to sound patronising.

    Vera, apologies if I caused any offence. None intended.

    Scorpio, okay good.

  22. GG, I hope I am very wrong. I’d love to see Turnbull strung up. I did read the comments you refer to this morning and I was heartened by them.

  23. Diogs,

    Hat tip for your thoughtful efforts regarding Judith Barnes. As is already plain, your actions on behalf of the PB community are much appreciated.

    Thank you.

  25. Finns,

    I’m just wondering whether the Libs should go on one of those lost weekends. The leadeship baton should be imbedded in some rock ( by Lotto officials under supervison) and all the aspirants try and pull it out and proclaim “With this baton I am leader of all that is Liberal”.

  28. O great Iupiter Pluvius, god of the rains, we beseech thee, please innundate the city of the Brummagens with thy cleansing rains, all day if possible, in thy mercy, amen. *Sacricifes goat*

  30. bob went:

    [It’s their job to display all polls.]

    It’s not my job to display all polls – any poll that doesn’t pass my credibility threshold doesnt appear on Pollytics.

    Morgan Face to Face has a 1.5 to 2 point TPP Labor lean compared to the phone pollsters while Essential has a parity-to-Labor lean (in that sometimes they lean to Labor, sometimes they dont). Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all track each other over the last 18 months.

    However, even if a pollster has a *relative* lean – the level isn’t that important when looking at the trend change because a 3 point change from 54 to 57 means the same thing as a three point change from 56 to 59 -both clearly demonstrate a movement in support from one party to another.

    With the Greens, they have been wandering around the 10 point mark since the last election – however, two things are worth mentioning.

    Firstly, because the Greens poll only 10% thereabouts, the margin of error on that primary vote is smaller than that given by the pollsters for the two party preferred. In a Newspoll with a sample of 1100, a 10% Greens etimate has an MoE of 1.8%.

    You can check these out for yourself using The Poll Cruncher:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/thepollcruncher/

    Secondly, even though the Greens are averaging around the 10% mark – their support level does move around like that of the major parties – and all the pollsters generally move together with such changes (so a drop or a rise in Greens support with, say, Newspoll will often be followed up with the same direction of movement among 2 out of 3, or 3 out of 4 pollsters – what we’d expect statistically if there was a true movement in support with the population).

  37. GG, sometime under the Knowledge Tree will do the Libs plenty of good, just as it has done Diog plenty of good. As he has done very good lately.

  38. [Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Monday, August 3, 2009 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

    Does this apply to tourists fredn? (Never visited the United States of Utopia.)]

    Applies to countries that are part of the visa waver program, which really has become a visa online program. Rest assured it is not Utopia. Living in Canada or Australia gives you a longer life expectancy and universal health care, and that is just the beginning.

  48. Thanks Psephos.

    Why not on line in Australia?

    NT mating songs just won’t do when the Cricket’s on.

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