Galaxy: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland

The Sunday Mail reports a Galaxy survey of 800 respondents conducted on Thursday and Friday shows a further plunge in support for the Bligh government. Unfortunately, the poll was clearly commissioned to take advantage of a horror week for the government, which is great for generating a headline but very poor form if you’re trying to objectively measure how an election might play out. This is the second time Galaxy has taken the field in Queensland in little over a month, which is entirely unprecedented outside of an election campaign. Even so, there’s no avoiding the fact that therese are disastrous figures for Labor: the LNP’s two-party lead has opened up to 59-41, compared with 55-45 in last month’s survey and 50.5-49.5 in Labor’s favour at the election. Labor’s primary vote has sunk from 42.2 per cent at the election to 36 per cent at the last poll to a New South Wales-esque 30 per cent at the current poll, while the LNP has gone from 41.6 per cent to 47 per cent to 48 per cent. The Greens have absorbed a solid chunk of the disaffected Labor vote, up to 12 per cent from 8.4 per cent at the election.

Anna Bligh’s personal ratings are equally worrying for the government: her approval rating is 33 per cent, compared with 50 per cent at the election and 44 per cent for Peter Beattie shortly before his retirement, while her disapproval is at 64 per cent. Further questions elicited predictable responses on corruption issues, with 68 per cent expressing support for Tony Fitzgerald’s recently expressed opinions on the government. Fifty-six per cent backed a ban on political donations, and 86 per cent said they opposed the government’s plan to sell state-owned assets. For all that, the poll provides a disappointment for LNP leader John-Paul Langbroek, whose approval rating has fallen to 34 per cent from 42 per cent in the previous poll. His disapproval rating is 36 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

19 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. [Labor’s primary vote has sunk from 42.2 per cent at the election to 36 per cent at the last poll to a New South Wales-esque 30 per cent at the current poll, while the LNP has gone from 41.6 per cent to 47 per cent to 48 per cent. ]


    [her disapproval is at 64 per cent]

    Double ouch.

  2. Approval/Disapproval numbers of 34/36 for an opposition leader are pretty much identical to those in the last NSW Newspoll: Also the Qld government’s numbers are worse than NSW’s. It is worth noting, as Bill Bowe does, that this could be a reflection of a few bad news stories. Then again a long term government would be less able to rebound from a bad week or two. If things are going to get terminal, for the sake of any Queenslanders, i hope Anna Bligh can keep it together better than Iemma/Rees.

  3. We can only hope that this is the beginning of Galaxy putting out a monthly Queensland state poll instead of the hit and miss approach of the past.

    According to their website:

    [galaxy omnibus

    Our Omnibus is conducted fortnightly amongst a representative sample of 1,100 Australians.]

  4. The LNP have shot themselves in both feet with their frenzy over Fitzgerald.

    The LNP’s major fund-raising method was corporate dinners, now Capt. Bligh has called on them to join Labor and ban this practice, they are back peddling as fast as they can. Its farcicle.

  5. Three years from an election, has made very unpopular decisions and is a long term government. What else would you expect? As for any sign post to the next election, let’s wait and see.

  6. “What else would you expect?”

    Not 41-59, surely? Especially only a few months after an unexpectedly strong election win.

  7. I find the commentary from the MSM about this poll highly amusing. The same commentators that refused to write off Howard who has these poll numbers A FEW MONTHS before the election are writing off Bligh who has just started her term. And Bob you should know better than to buy that spin, as well as the fact that this poll was taken after Nuttal’s sentencing and Fitzgerald’s recent spray.

    In fact the most important question is, why did Galaxy do the poll THIS WEEK, as it is not their usual frequency? Seems designed to get the worst possible numbers for Bligh.

  8. The reason why Galaxy did the poll this week is exactly the same reason that Nielsen and Newspoll do any poll – they were commissioned to do it.

    Bligh was mince meat the day she abolished the 8c/L petrol subsidy.

  9. Things changed rather quickly didn’t they. WA fell, NSW is set to fall, QLD now looks the same, and the NT government is in turmoil. Tas just had an unusual by-election win by the Liberals. I wonder how many governments will have changed in a few years.

  10. [Especially only a few months after an unexpectedly strong election win.]

    I wouldn’t call it strong, i’d call it comfortable.

  11. But where is the LNP leader in the last few days? Missing in action it seems.

    Have to agree though that Labor is in disaster mode – I think the LNP experiment is starting to look more and more like a Liberal-style party than a Nationals one. Which is why people are okay with backing it as an alternative government, the whole hayseed back-to-the-future look with Springborg was too much for some people in Brisbane who would be prepared to vote for an urban conservative leader, especially outside the wealthy areas that always vote for the conservatives.

  12. WA and NSW have/will proven/will prove a hopelessly incompetent opposition Liberal Party will not stop a governing Labor Party losing. Remember, oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. It’ll take a lot for QLD Labor to come back…

  13. bob1234

    Remember that the L-NP have not won a majority of seats at a Qld election since 1986. I expect the ALP will lose the next election, but never underestimate the ability of the LNP to stuff up. 🙂

  14. This poll confirms for me that a Federal double dissolution is unlikely.

    Any Labor politician, state or Federal approaching a Queenslander in the next twelve months is going to be greeted by the proverbial baseball bat on the verandah.

    Jack Hackett

  15. The Victorian Parliament Electoral Matters Committee has recommended that the electoral act be modified to adopt a more fairer and accurate calculation of the results of the upper house elections

    Recommendation 8.1: The Victorian Government considers introducing the Weighted Inclusive Gregory Method of counting votes for the Legislative Council

    The proposal brings Victoria in line with Western Australia which had also adopted similar changes earlier in the way votes are counted.

    The reforms proposed by the Victorian Parliament will have its greatest impact in the Local Government sector including the City of Melbourne. Analysis of past elections has shown that the results of the City of Melbourne Elections could have changed had this reform been in place at the time.

    The recommendation of the State Parliament has flown in the face of the Australian Federal Government who earlier this year rejected calls for similar reform to the Australian Senate System. The Australian Government, increasingly seen to be at odds with the states on electoral reform, remains stuck in the 19th century cling on to an outdated discredited counting system.

    Analysis of the 2007 Senate election has indicated that ALP Senator David Feeney could have lost his seat as a result of the distortion on the Senate Counting system, a system that would have delivered the Greens an additional 7,000 “bonus votes” above and beyond the number of actual votes received.

    The recommendation of the State Parliament Electoral Matters Committee is a step forward in improving the accuracy and public confidence in Victorian elections.

    The Parliament now needs to consider further the other anominally and error in the Senate Upper House election system, namely the way in which votes allocated to excluded candidates are redistributed.

    The order in which votes for minor candidates are distributed seriously effects the outcome of the senate elections. The system currently in place unfairly resulted in the Greens Queensland Senate Candidate “Larissa Waters” missing out in the right of representation in 2007 . The ALP unfairly won a third Senate spot as a result.

    With the advent of computer assisted election counts, both the Australian Parliament and State Governments, should consider adopting a re-iterative counting system (wright System)or the use of Meeks Method of counting the vote as the next step for electoral reform

  16. As I said before the last election, If LNP wins they will lose the next election.

    If ALP wins they becomes the new NSW ALP, all its incompetancy will be for all to see, and the ALP will not govern in QLD for another 10 year

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