Federal preselection season is in full swing, at least in some parts of the country. Three big Victorian Liberal contests are coming to the boil following the departure of sitting members in safe seats, while one Labor-held seat has produced a substantial challenge against a sitting member. The action in New South Wales and Queensland is in stasis pending redistributions which will be finalised early next year, although some preliminary jockeying has been under way. Things seem fairly quiet in South Australia and Western Australia, the latter situation prompting a spray at the Liberals from Peter van Onselen in The Australian, who complains about the apparent security of tenure for the state party’s bloated retinue of ageing backbenchers (only the relatively youthful Dennis Jensen in Tangney faces a challenge). Beyond that, there’s one item of news to report from Tasmania.
• The Age reports Victorian Liberal deputy director Daniel Tehan has resigned his position to contest preselection for Wannon, to be vacated at the next election by David Hawker. Tehan is the son of the late Marie Tehan, who was among other things Health Minister in the Kennett government. His confirmed opponents will include Louise Staley, former state party vice-president and Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert; Rod Nockles, Howard government adviser and runner-up in the recent preselection for the less desirable prospect of Corangamite; Elizabeth Matuschka, a University of Ballarat administrator who ran unsuccessfully in Ballarat at the 2004 federal election and for Ballarat City Council last November; Matt Makin, a Corangamite councillor; Katrina Rainsford, a Southern Grampians councillor; and Hugh Koch, whom the Warrnambool Standard tells us is a Southern Grampians tourism manager. David McKenzie of the Weekly Times reports that former Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, recently unsuccessful in bids for Corangamite and a position on the board of the National Farmers Federation, has decided against nominating and will instead seek a state upper house berth in Western Victoria. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has also named as possibilities “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier and former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth. UPDATE: The Age says the closure of nominations has produced 10 candidates, which includes “company director Stephen Mitchell”.
• Nicholas McGowan, former adviser to state Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu, has put his hand up to succeed the outgoing Chris Pearce as the Liberal candidate for Aston. Also in the field are two Knox City councillors, Sue McMillan and Darren Pearce (respectively representing Dobson and Taylor wards). McMillan earlier stood for preselection in both Ferntree Gully and Monbulk ahead of the 2006 state election. The Knox Leader reports that former mayor Emanuele Cicciello “has been tipped to run but is remaining tight-lipped”. On July 1, the Herald Sun reported that names “yet to be confirmed” included “former Howard government adviser Alan Tudge and lawyer John Pesutto, who performed well in the recent Kooyong preselection battle”, but VexNews reports the latter assertion is “not correct”.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the preselection contest for Higgins is “being fought out between Kelly O’Dwyer, a former senior adviser to Mr Costello, and Institute of Public Affairs director Tim Wilson”, who respectively have the backing of the Kroger and Baillieu factions. Definitely out of the running are Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam, Crosby Textor consultant Jason Aldworth and former state party director Julian Sheezel, which Andrew Landeryou at VexNews credits to gentle persuasion from Michael Kroger in support of O’Dwyer. No word lately on Tom Elliott, hedge fund manager and son of John.
• With Mal Brough frozen out of the running in Higgins and Aston, Andrew Landeryou at VexNews relates he is “apparently looking or waiting to be drafted”, which might yet occur when Fran Bailey vacates McEwen at the election after next (assuming she can hang on to her 27-vote margin).
• This weekend sees the local ALP preselection ballot take place for the safe Labor Melbourne seat of Calwell. Incumbent Maria Vamvakinou, a stalwart of Kim Carr’s sub-faction of the Left, faces a challenge from Andy Richards, Geelong councillor and official with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (metalworkers’ division). The ballot accounts for half the overall vote, the other half being determined by the party’s Public Office Selection Committee. According to Rick Wallace of The Australian, Richards could secure support from the Right faction National Union of Workers and Health Services Union – collectively known as the “Ambition Faction” – which forged alliances with the AMWU after being excluded from a “stability pact” between the Kim Carr Left and Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy of the Right. Should this transpire, moves to heal the rift between the rival Right groupings could miscarry. Wallace reports that Richards also has support from “local Turks aligned with ALP identity and local councillor Burhan Yigit”. If support for Richards holds firm, Wallace says the decisive factors will be “local Kurds and a local Lebanese numbers man, Mohamad Abbouche”. As Andrew Landeryou of VexNews tells it, the former might be inclined to back Richards because they are angry that Kim Carr has failed to support Moreland councillor Enver Erdogan in the state preselection for Brunswick. Landeryou says the Ambition Faction is hopeful of securing as much as 60 per cent of the vote for Richards, but the Carr camp is “confident they’ll be able to snaffle at least 20 per cent of the vote back from pesky ethnic warlords who are pledged to support Richards”. UPDATE: See below.
• Nick Butterly of The West Australian says that while Dennis Jensen’s chances of surviving Saturday’s Liberal preselection ballot in Tangney have been boosted by the support of Malcolm Turnbull and “Perth business heavyweights”, Liberal insiders say he “still faces defeat in this Saturday’s ballot because of local concerns about his fundraising efforts and performance in Federal Parliament”. It is not stated which of his two opponents is considered the more formidable: Alcoa government relations manager Libby Lyons, or Toyota Finance executive Glenn Piggott. UPDATE: See below.
• The Launceston Examiner reports that the frontrunner for Liberal preselection in Bass, Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, has withdrawn citing family and work issues. The nomination is now likely to go to Steve Titmus, a former television newsreader.
• The Australian’s Strewth column is advised by a Liberal source that there is “absolutely no truth” to rumours Melanie Howard might contest preselection for Bennelong. Earlier reports suggested approaches to former state MPs Kerry Chikarovski and Andrew Tink had been rebuffed. Also mentioned a while back was former rugby union international Brett Papworth.
UPDATE (18/7/09): Via Frank Calabrese, we learn that ABC TV news in Perth reports that Glenn Piggott has defeated Dennis Jensen in the Tangney preselection vote. Remembering of course that Jensen also lost before the last election, only to have the result overturned on the intervention of John Howard. Meanwhile, Andrew Landeryou reports that Andy Richards has pulled out of the Calwell preselection, so there should be no problems now for Maria Vamvakinou – notwithstanding earlier reports that one Manfried Kriechbaum had also nominated as part of a campaign of mischief-making by state Keilor MP George Seitz.
[Yes but we dont have a horde of Union members out on the booths on polling day…]
You also wouldn’t have a solid bloc to vote for you under voluntary voting 😉
Even though 30% of unionists are Liberal voters, it’s still a big bloc.
Why any unionist would want to vote for the Liberals, however, is beyond me…
[NEWLY elected Liberal Party leader Isobel Redmond has given every non-retiring Liberal MP a spot on her first front bench to promote competition among colleagues.]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25806056-5006301,00.html
Ameteurs.
[Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop has brushed off Malcolm Turnbull’s poor performance in opinion polls, saying voters think he is a really impressive guy.
“He is extremely impressive, and people like him, they warm to him, and they think that he’s the genuine article,” she told Network Ten.
“They don’t think he’s a fake. They don’t think he’s a phoney.”
People who meet him at public forums think “Wow! He is a really impressive guy”.
“And he is … and will lead us to the next election.”]
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbull-is-extremely-impressive-bishop-20090719-dpal.html
Who does she think she’s kidding?!
Yes Juile, its not the polls that count, its the people that meet turnbull in public- the kind of delusional thinking that Howard and his ministers came up with time and time again to justify the bad polls…
Turnbull twitter followers- 13,800
Rudd twitter-212, 981
Really impressive Julie
[Yes Juile, its not the polls that count, its the people that meet turnbull in public- the kind of delusional thinking that Howard and his ministers came up with time and time again to justify the bad polls…]
Howard ministers during Howard’s ABC doco stated they would say this sort of thing during 2007 even though they knew they were in for a drubbing. I think Julie knows it’s not true but has to say it anyway. But she couldn’t be more see-through if she tried.
bob1234 @ 903
what she means is that she thinks he’s a really impressive guy…
bob i think it also fits their theory that if they repeat something again and again people will believe it
..and of course, we can trust Mesma’s judgement of what is ‘a really impressive guy’ can’t we? Lightfoot? Hell yeah, he was a really impressive guy!!
A good article in the SMH here about “financial planners ” (i.e. salesmen), their fees and the lack of regulation on them in Australia:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/feedom-fighters-plot-thickens-against-commissions-20090719-dpho.html
These guys are just overpaid. $500K a year for a marketing job where there is no professional or product liaibility??? There is no reason for Labor to protect them. They are just a cost to the economy: they produce nothing, and legislation means the transactions must occur anyway. Howard did nothing to reign them in after the HIH inquiry; we’ll see if Rudd does anythign after the latest roudn of scandals and inquests. If not, it would be reasonable to conclude that the FPA has bought a lot of influence with pollies on both sides.
Mia Handshin being touted as possible candidate in Sturt again at the next election. Factional leader Don Farrell has said “Sturt is Mia’s if she wants it”.
State ALP sources claim they do not expect her to run again due to her young family.
Support in Boothby ‘solidifying’ around Annabel Digance, a SA Water board member and former nurse.
Why any unionist would want to vote for the Liberals, however, is beyond me…
Never assume all members of any group are not motivated by self interest. Some unions represent people on very high incomes, while others do little for workers on low wages. I’m not anti-union, but even in my own work experience, I have encountered some unions that gave the concept a bad name. For that matter, if you were a nurse or teacher in NSW, could you be blamed for voting against the current state governmetn?
[For that matter, if you were a nurse or teacher in NSW, could you be blamed for voting against the current state governmetn?]
Any nurse or teacher who thinks the Liberals would do a better job in health or education has rocks in their head.
[Mia Handshin being touted as possible candidate in Sturt again at the next election. Factional leader Don Farrell has said “Sturt is Mia’s if she wants it”.]
The other day I changed divisions from Sturt to Adelaide. At first I was unhappy about it, but then I realised that once the swings are on against Labor, it won’t be seats like Sturt that will retain them government, seats like Sturt are icing on the cake for Labor. Adelaide is more likely to be won and lost when swings are on so it’s probably best there’s another Labor voter in Adelaide.
Plus my Green then Labor vote is a better fit for Adelaide than Sturt 🙂
Bill Heffernan reportedly making the rounds to ensure his re-election. Some reports suggest the Clarke NSW hard right is not happy with him (on religious and environmental issues) but will most likely concentrate on ensuring the top spot for Concetta Fierravanti-Wells.
Wait wait, the Clarke faction thinks Heff is too soft on religious and environmental issues?
God help us all.
bob 912
I would agree, but my point was just that thats not how all people think. I think people usually vote against bad governments rather than for oppositions. I was just responding to the point raised earlier that 25% of union members vote Liberal. The points I listed are some of the reasons why I think that 25% votes the way it does.
I would think that more than 25% of the business and professional class votes Labor these days.
Oh gawd
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/opposition-to-seek-to-change-ets-20090720-dq1y.html
[The federal opposition has flagged it will try to modify the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS), rather than knock it back.
The Senate is due to vote on the ETS next month.
The opposition, which has the numbers in the upper house, has been critical of the planned scheme.
Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull said the business community had made it clear they wanted changes to the scheme.
“There is an overwhelming consensus in the business community… that the laws should be changed and we should seek to advance and promote those changes,” Mr Turnbull told ABC Radio on Monday.]
So basically the Libs will huff and puff over the ETS but in the end not vote against it and say to Labor “be it on your head”.
Tom the second and silver medalist:
There is a strong argument that kava has had a net positive effect in the Australian community. This is an argument that I agree with and even if you disagree I ask you this: What other mind altering drug can such an argument possibly be made about in good faith? Certainly not alcohol. Caffeine and Kava are the only two drugs to do us good.
Redmond:
[“We are still committed to a small-sized Cabinet of 12 if we win government, but I wanted everyone in contention for those positions to have the chance to show what they can do.”]
Sounds fair enough to me.
[Sounds fair enough to me.]
No, it’s a cop-out. She’s escaping the dirty work of selecting a cabinet, which makes some happy and others pissed off, and would only cause more faction disharmony.
917
Than add the proportion who vote Green and then preference the ALP (if there preferences are distributed) and you have an even bigger proportion of the professional class.
The idea of having patient’s records kept in a central database sounds good and would reduce duplication of resources. I’m not sure how they are proposing getting all that information on the server. And the comments we make about patients will have to be more circumspect if the patients can read their notes online.
It sounds like a pain in the arse to me.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25806145-5006301,00.html
[I would think that more than 25% of the business and professional class votes Labor these days.]
My impression is that there is a big difference between how “business” people vote and “professional” people. I think a much higher % of professionals vote Labor (or Green with Labor preferenced) than business people.
There must be some figures on it somewhere.
Our exit polling is really crap compared to the US.
[No, it’s a cop-out. She’s escaping the dirty work of selecting a cabinet, which makes some happy and others pissed off, and would only cause more faction disharmony.]
Exactly – seems like a credible stretegy from thier poor position to me. They need all the internal harmony they can get at the moment. They can fight over portfolio’s after the elction – in the very unlikely event of their victory.
[Our exit polling is really crap compared to the US.]
Well the 2007 exit poll of 3000 gave 53/47, which is the closest you can get to 52.7/47.3 on a whole number basis.
bob
I mean in terms of the details and cross-tabs it supplies.
In the US, you get all the demographic breakdowns in all the states.
[Exactly – seems like a credible stretegy from thier poor position to me. They need all the internal harmony they can get at the moment. They can fight over portfolio’s after the elction – in the very unlikely event of their victory.]
Adam, Antony – when was the last time state/federal where every non-retiring MP held a portfolio?
[ And the comments we make about patients will have to be more circumspect if the patients can read their notes online.
It sounds like a pain in the arse to me.]
From a patient’s perspective, it sounds great to me. It should’ve been done ten yeas ago.
SO
It would be great for lots of things but there would be lots of cases where it would be a disaster. Imagine a psychiatry patient reading all the notes their doctor made like saying that a therapy hadn’t worked or that the patient was still obsessing about their ex-wife and sublimating this with their obsession with Julia Gillard. No-one wants to read that kind of stuff about themselves.
Democrat might quit ‘disappearing’ party
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25807815-5006301,00.html
[THE last Democrat left in any Australian Parliament, South Australia’s David Winderlich, says he will quit the party unless it gets 1000 new members by November.
Mr Winderlich, who was appointed to Parliament’s Upper House in November last year to replace outgoing leader Sandra Kanck, said the party was in crisis.
It is understood the party has less than 300 financial members and Mr Winderlich said the new members were needed to revitalise what was once Australia’s thrid major party.
Mr Winderlich informed the party leadership this morning of his move which he said he had been considering for about six weeks.
He said the leadership was “not happy” with the move.
“We are in crisis, we are in danger of disappearing,” he said.
“I will work with them (the party) to achieve this goal, in fact no one will be recruiting harder than me.
“If the party fails to get 1000 members I will be blamed.
“If the party succeeds, I will be a hero.
“I am sticking my neck on the chopping block for the party.”
The Democrats have gone from having three MPs in the Upper House to only one and are facing the prospect, according to the latest polls, of not winning Mr Winderlich’s seat at the March, 2010, state election.]
In danger of disappearing? The Democrats have already disappeared! It’s just 8-year terms that saved Kanck’s spot! The Democrats haven’t had any support for the past half-decade. Get rid of 8-year terms. They are no longer credible so they shouldn’t be there…
[No-one wants to read that kind of stuff about themselves.]
If a patient doesn’t want to read their medical record, then that’s fine. But patients should have access to it if they want to. The medical record should be the patient’s property.
If a psychiatric patient is still obsessing over their ex-wife, then most likely this is something the psychiatrist has already said to the patient.
Also, doctors should always write medical records as if the patient may one day read it, because that is always a possibility if the contents of a medical record is subject to legal proceedings, e.g. because of misdiagnosis or malpractice.
925
I strongly agree.
Lib leader defends size of shadow team
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/20/2630556.htm
[New Opposition Leader Isobel Redmond has been forced to defend putting 18 people on the shadow frontbench.
On the social networking website Twitter, Premier Mike Rann has made light of the shadow cabinet appointments.
Mr Rann congratulated former veterinarian Duncan McFetridge on his appointment as health spokesman, saying he once saved his daughter’s axolotl.
The Premier has also pointed out that five opposition members will shadow the portfolios held by his minister, Jane Lomax-Smith.]
Haha, nice one Rann.
Take a look at Redmond at http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/20/2630556.htm too… she just doesn’t look like Premier material… she looks out of her depth.
SO
Lots of psych patients aren’t making great judgements so they will read the notes whether it’s in their best interests or not. The psychiatrist would often hold back on bringing up patients underlying problems until the acute crisis is overcome.
Medical records are not the patient’s property. They are the doctor’s property. We don’t have to give them to patients unless it’s for their treatment and then we can just give a summary.
We do write records as if the patient might read them in court, but that is quite different from the patient reading a running commentary on their losing battle to stop smoking, lose weight and stop getting drunk.
Sighting your patient record sounds good to me. I know of problems that have arisen when a new Dr takes over the practice without referring to earlier records properly.
There’s little time in a busy practice for a new Dr to be on top of past stuff. Often patients (like my OH) forget what, or don’t want to remember, important history which can make heaps of difference.
Some Drs find it difficult to explain stuff properly – hence people go to the web which can be the wrong thing to do.
Better to know what your records say – the responsibility to ask questions is then your own and rightly so. If you don’t ask the Dr can’t know what is worrying you.
935
If you are going to split up 12 in 18 then it would be sensible not to have four of 6 extra shadowing the one minister.
[Medical records are not the patient’s property. They are the doctor’s property.]
I know, that is why I wrote they “should” be the patient’s property.
BH
I completely agree that there are lots of advantages but I’m just pointing out that there are lots of potential problems.
I often wish I knew what operations the patient had had before or what other doctors have thought.
I especially want to know when they’ve had ten opinions from other surgeons telling them that they shouldn’t have an operation for their complaint and that I’m the eleventh person they’re seeing.
[had ten opinions from other surgeons telling them that they shouldn’t have an operation for their complaint ]
Have you encountered these people who love being in hospital and having operations and who shop around until they find a doctor who will let them have one? I used to know a surgeon who said he’d encountered several of them. Is there a word for this? Nosocomiophilia perhaps?
Dio – love your last sentence in 941. I’ve had to cut my tongue out a few times to stop nagging a friend from doing the rounds to opinion wanted. Absolute madness. And then to top it off, the operation was a disaster and turned out exactly the way the first surgeon said it would.
I do agree with you about patients who may not be capable of seeing their records in a responsible way. Perhaps there could be exemptions made.
But for most of us it would be extremely useful. See your cholesterol level, etc. in full glowing colour is a good incentive to work hard on it.
[But for most of us it would be extremely useful. See your cholesterol level, etc. in full glowing colour is a good incentive to work hard on it.]
In most cases, those sorts of test results are copied to the patient anyway
Current state of play for those living under a rock:
*Fed: ALP gov. BOP: Greens, Mr X & FF all needed when opposition votes no.
*NSW: ALP gov. BOP: Either Greens or Religious Right and Rednecks needed.
*VIC: ALP gov. BOP: Either Greens or Nationals needed.
*QLD: ALP gov.
*WA: LIB/NAT minority gov with upper house majority.
*SA: ALP gov. BOP: need 4 out of 6 cross-benchers (2FF, 2MrX, 1 GRN, 1 DEM).
*TAS: ALP gov.
*ACT: ALP minority gov.
*NT: ALP minority gov.
Predictions for the situation after one election:
*Fed: ALP gov. GRN BOP alone.
*NSW: COAL gov. GRN BOP alone.
*VIC: ALP gov. GRN BOP alone.
*QLP: LNP gov.
*WA: LIB gov (will they continue the coalition with the NAT’s if they have a majority by themselves?). BOP: Continued Gerymander in the upper house.
*SA: ALP gov. BOP: This is hard to predict but I’d say that the two most likely options are: the gov needs two out of three cross bench groupings to vote yes or the other possibility is they will need the GRN’s or FF and NoPokies.
*Tas: ALP minority gov supported by the Greens after three weeks negotiation.
*ACT: ALP minority gov supported by the Greens after one weeks negotiation.
*NT: CLP gov.
Psephos – was trawling back through some comments after being tied up for a week. (Bit of PB withdrawal there!!).
Altho a diehard, I actually agree with Possum re the Hawke/Keating legacy. I ended up in a right stink about Kim B not going in hard enough on Howard. All we ever heard for years was 17%. That idiocy should have been knocked on the head from the start.
Glad to see Kev & Co point out the mistruths as they arise a bit better now.
Kim didn’t appear to be a fighter and thought just being a nice guy would suffice.
Soc went: “For that matter, if you were a nurse or teacher in NSW, could you be blamed for voting against the current state governmetn?”
NSW state government has treated teachers with contempt for over a decade because teachers are not part of the Sussex St. right-wing unions cabal. Too make it worse for Rees Labor, the Opposition’s policy is that of prohibiting newspapers from publishing school league tables.
In addition, the Labor government has destroyed a once-proud TAFE system. It has been 75% casualised, and very few part-time teachers join the Federation.
Bob’s point about the quality of O’Farrell and his Opposition being worse is well taken (as usual), but teachers can’t really be “blamed” if they’ve had a gutful and vote to sweep a woeful right-wing Labor government out of office. It’s nearly impossible for moderate unions to mount an effective campaign against a state Labor government on their own, but the wider union movement usually gives full support to an identical campaign against a Coalition government.
[Too make it worse for Rees Labor, the Opposition’s policy is that of prohibiting newspapers from publishing school league tables.]
No, this is actually bad for the opposition.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tony_Abbott&oldid=303063010
Once in a while there’s some amusing vandalism on wikipedia 😉
ShowsON,
Thanks for the comment, but my post was specifically about reasons for teachers to vote against Rees, not the entire NSW voting population.