Federal preselection season is in full swing, at least in some parts of the country. Three big Victorian Liberal contests are coming to the boil following the departure of sitting members in safe seats, while one Labor-held seat has produced a substantial challenge against a sitting member. The action in New South Wales and Queensland is in stasis pending redistributions which will be finalised early next year, although some preliminary jockeying has been under way. Things seem fairly quiet in South Australia and Western Australia, the latter situation prompting a spray at the Liberals from Peter van Onselen in The Australian, who complains about the apparent security of tenure for the state party’s bloated retinue of ageing backbenchers (only the relatively youthful Dennis Jensen in Tangney faces a challenge). Beyond that, there’s one item of news to report from Tasmania.
• The Age reports Victorian Liberal deputy director Daniel Tehan has resigned his position to contest preselection for Wannon, to be vacated at the next election by David Hawker. Tehan is the son of the late Marie Tehan, who was among other things Health Minister in the Kennett government. His confirmed opponents will include Louise Staley, former state party vice-president and Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert; Rod Nockles, Howard government adviser and runner-up in the recent preselection for the less desirable prospect of Corangamite; Elizabeth Matuschka, a University of Ballarat administrator who ran unsuccessfully in Ballarat at the 2004 federal election and for Ballarat City Council last November; Matt Makin, a Corangamite councillor; Katrina Rainsford, a Southern Grampians councillor; and Hugh Koch, whom the Warrnambool Standard tells us is a Southern Grampians tourism manager. David McKenzie of the Weekly Times reports that former Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, recently unsuccessful in bids for Corangamite and a position on the board of the National Farmers Federation, has decided against nominating and will instead seek a state upper house berth in Western Victoria. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has also named as possibilities “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier and former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth. UPDATE: The Age says the closure of nominations has produced 10 candidates, which includes “company director Stephen Mitchell”.
• Nicholas McGowan, former adviser to state Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu, has put his hand up to succeed the outgoing Chris Pearce as the Liberal candidate for Aston. Also in the field are two Knox City councillors, Sue McMillan and Darren Pearce (respectively representing Dobson and Taylor wards). McMillan earlier stood for preselection in both Ferntree Gully and Monbulk ahead of the 2006 state election. The Knox Leader reports that former mayor Emanuele Cicciello “has been tipped to run but is remaining tight-lipped”. On July 1, the Herald Sun reported that names “yet to be confirmed” included “former Howard government adviser Alan Tudge and lawyer John Pesutto, who performed well in the recent Kooyong preselection battle”, but VexNews reports the latter assertion is “not correct”.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the preselection contest for Higgins is “being fought out between Kelly O’Dwyer, a former senior adviser to Mr Costello, and Institute of Public Affairs director Tim Wilson”, who respectively have the backing of the Kroger and Baillieu factions. Definitely out of the running are Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam, Crosby Textor consultant Jason Aldworth and former state party director Julian Sheezel, which Andrew Landeryou at VexNews credits to gentle persuasion from Michael Kroger in support of O’Dwyer. No word lately on Tom Elliott, hedge fund manager and son of John.
• With Mal Brough frozen out of the running in Higgins and Aston, Andrew Landeryou at VexNews relates he is “apparently looking or waiting to be drafted”, which might yet occur when Fran Bailey vacates McEwen at the election after next (assuming she can hang on to her 27-vote margin).
• This weekend sees the local ALP preselection ballot take place for the safe Labor Melbourne seat of Calwell. Incumbent Maria Vamvakinou, a stalwart of Kim Carr’s sub-faction of the Left, faces a challenge from Andy Richards, Geelong councillor and official with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (metalworkers’ division). The ballot accounts for half the overall vote, the other half being determined by the party’s Public Office Selection Committee. According to Rick Wallace of The Australian, Richards could secure support from the Right faction National Union of Workers and Health Services Union – collectively known as the “Ambition Faction” – which forged alliances with the AMWU after being excluded from a “stability pact” between the Kim Carr Left and Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy of the Right. Should this transpire, moves to heal the rift between the rival Right groupings could miscarry. Wallace reports that Richards also has support from “local Turks aligned with ALP identity and local councillor Burhan Yigit”. If support for Richards holds firm, Wallace says the decisive factors will be “local Kurds and a local Lebanese numbers man, Mohamad Abbouche”. As Andrew Landeryou of VexNews tells it, the former might be inclined to back Richards because they are angry that Kim Carr has failed to support Moreland councillor Enver Erdogan in the state preselection for Brunswick. Landeryou says the Ambition Faction is hopeful of securing as much as 60 per cent of the vote for Richards, but the Carr camp is “confident they’ll be able to snaffle at least 20 per cent of the vote back from pesky ethnic warlords who are pledged to support Richards”. UPDATE: See below.
• Nick Butterly of The West Australian says that while Dennis Jensen’s chances of surviving Saturday’s Liberal preselection ballot in Tangney have been boosted by the support of Malcolm Turnbull and “Perth business heavyweights”, Liberal insiders say he “still faces defeat in this Saturday’s ballot because of local concerns about his fundraising efforts and performance in Federal Parliament”. It is not stated which of his two opponents is considered the more formidable: Alcoa government relations manager Libby Lyons, or Toyota Finance executive Glenn Piggott. UPDATE: See below.
• The Launceston Examiner reports that the frontrunner for Liberal preselection in Bass, Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, has withdrawn citing family and work issues. The nomination is now likely to go to Steve Titmus, a former television newsreader.
• The Australian’s Strewth column is advised by a Liberal source that there is “absolutely no truth” to rumours Melanie Howard might contest preselection for Bennelong. Earlier reports suggested approaches to former state MPs Kerry Chikarovski and Andrew Tink had been rebuffed. Also mentioned a while back was former rugby union international Brett Papworth.
UPDATE (18/7/09): Via Frank Calabrese, we learn that ABC TV news in Perth reports that Glenn Piggott has defeated Dennis Jensen in the Tangney preselection vote. Remembering of course that Jensen also lost before the last election, only to have the result overturned on the intervention of John Howard. Meanwhile, Andrew Landeryou reports that Andy Richards has pulled out of the Calwell preselection, so there should be no problems now for Maria Vamvakinou – notwithstanding earlier reports that one Manfried Kriechbaum had also nominated as part of a campaign of mischief-making by state Keilor MP George Seitz.
[She was pretty keen on suing for unfair dismissal when she was sacked.]
Typical Liberal / hack lawyer.
Nothing wrong with lawyers. I mean, the Deputy Prime Minister is a lawyer after all.
[Nothing wrong with lawyers. I mean, the Deputy Prime Minister is a lawyer after all.]
G.P., read my posts before responding to them! I wrote “Liberal / hack lawyer” which is a very particular type of lawyer!
No 853
Oh please. Lawyers are only bad when it suits you. Hypocrite.
Psephos went, after two very good points:
[We were proud of our record in government and didn’t feel any need to repudiate it.]
Come on Adam! If you pull it any harder, it’ll fall off! 😀
Labor under Beazley Mk 1 ran away from the Hawke/Keating/Walsh legacy as fast as their little legs would carry them! Federal incumbents always get a natural boost on issues of economic management, but the Beazley retreat was such a route on this issue that it allowed the Coalition to rewrite modern history and claim economic management (against all long term public opinion research to the contrary) as singularly their own!
It became a problem that Labor simply couldn’t overcome (and which was *the* priority issue for 98 and 04 and the 2nd issue for 2001 behind nat security) because the ALP let their economic legacy slip away in their first term of Opposition.
Adam Poss has caught you out LOL!
Fact is the Liberals are good only under a strong leader.
Menzies
Howard
Nuff said…
That is why when I watch Yes Minister, Jim Hacker reminds me of Malcolm Turnbull.
But Jim Hacker did something Turnbull will never do, become PM.
Liberal Rule will only remind us Tories how far we have fallen away…
I will be voting Liberal of course whenever the next election is but unlike when I voted for Howard, I dont think they deserve my vote.
[Oh please. Lawyers are only bad when it suits you. Hypocrite.]
Well we had to talk about something considering your defence of currently Liberal ‘policy’ fell apart after 1 post.
[It became a problem that Labor simply couldn’t overcome (and which was *the* priority issue for 98 and 04 and the 2nd issue for 2001 behind nat security) because the ALP let their economic legacy slip away in their first term of Opposition.]
Yeah, Labor’s 1998 policy should’ve been a 5% GST, with tax cuts completely skewed to the middle class through an earned income tax credit.
I can’t see many voters choosing a 10% tax when they had a chance to vote for a 5% tax instead.
[I will be voting Liberal of course whenever the next election is but unlike when I voted for Howard, I dont think they deserve my vote.]
So vote for someone else then, and just preference the Liberals above Labor.
Having said that, the Liberals are desperate for as many $1.20 payments they can get.
[Beazley Mk 1 ran away from the Hawke/Keating/Walsh legacy as fast as their little legs would carry them!]
Such is not my recollection. There is an inevitable tendency for opposition parties to drift towards populist rhetoric, because they can only hope to regain power by exploiting the unpopularity of the incumbents, but my recollection is that Labor continued to support the Hawke Keating reforms and their beneficial consequences. As for Walsh, he ran away from us, not vice versa.
GP went:
[Why should businesses have to give any warning to an employee? If the business is not happy with the performance of the employee, they should be able to dismiss them.]
Because in companies that are at the biggish end of SME’s or larger, the entity that isnt happy with a given employees performance is usually not the boss, but some middle management chap or chappette that may not be working in the best interests of the company.
Unfair dismissal cases are often used by top tier management to uncover pathological empire building by middle management employees further down the chain! While small businesses certainly need to be treated under UD with legislation more appropriate and tailored to their specific circumstances, UD is a far more complex issue than you are seemingly willing to treat it.
Then again I’ve paid my membership so I’ve already given enough lol!
*turns off cricket*
This sums up the state of the Liberal Party at the moment…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25797511-7583,00.html
[Over at the Turnbull Twitter site — followed by 13,800 — things weren’t all that much more insightful.
“Mellie’s top 5 tips for looking after your dog in winter,” he offered on Wednesday, with a link to a blog “written” by one of his dogs.
“Holding a Jobs for Australia Forum with Peter Dutton, Julie Bishop and Steve Ciobo in Bray Park, Qld,” he wrote earlier, without any more information about exactly how Coalition policy would create more jobs.]
[Then again I’ve paid my membership so I’ve already given enough lol!]
I’m sure that membership fee will pay for a lot of booth workers on election day. Well done for playing your part!
Yes but we dont have a horde of Union members out on the booths on polling day…
Most of our members can be in the sun for very long 😀 before they need a nap lol!
Psephos,
It was the reluctance (or p*ss weak, or pure political fear ) to combat the the “13 billion dollar black hole”, or the “Beazley Black Hole” charges of the Howard government that made them surrender the economic management ground to the Coalition (to the point mind you that Rudd, after 11 years in Opposition *STILL* had to pussy foot around it!).
It wasn’t a unanimous decision of the party room or the shadow cabinet or even of the unofficial Labor leadership group to leave that Howard charge stand – the result of that reluctance – a Beazley reluctance- to stand up for what Labor did under the Hawke/Keating/Walsh period, kneecapped them with the swinging voter cohort for a decade.
[Yes but we dont have a horde of Union members out on the booths on polling day…]
Liberal complaint against unionism #152623435 – they volunteer for political causes they believe in.
[Most of our members can be in the sun for very long 😀 before they need a nap lol!]
Well, I have worked at booths where Liberal campaign workers 1) weren’t Australians 2) though Mussoini was a better political leader than Morris Iemma 3) Didn’t know that Whitlam cut tariffs 3) Voted Labor in 1996
Well the trains in Italy must have run better in the 1930s than currently in NSW 😀
[Beazley reluctance- to stand up for what Labor did under the Hawke/Keating/Walsh period, kneecapped them with the swinging voter cohort for a decade.]
Then why did they come back to us in droves in 1998, to the point where KB nearly pulled off the upset of the century? I don’t think this analysis stands up. I think the real problem was that we had two very poor shadow treasurers in Evans and Crean. Beazley should have given it to McMullan and stuck with him. Being tough with colleagues was not his strong suit, but of course that’s always a problem for opposition leaders.
Compass is reliably the funniest show on Australian TV. This week it is about the Government in Bhutan having to step in to confirm reincarnations, because too many children are claiming that they were reincarnated.
Of course it is most likely their parents telling them to make such claims in order for their children to become famous, which enables them to get out of poverty.
I don’t know what I find more troubling, thousands of kids being told they have been reincarnated, or the government becoming the agency that determines the legitimacy of reincarnation. Probably the latter I guess.
No 867
[Well, I have worked at booths where Liberal campaign workers 1) weren’t Australians 2) though Mussoini was a better political leader than Morris Iemma 3) Didn’t know that Whitlam cut tariffs 3) Voted Labor in 1996]
There is plenty of ignorance on both sides of the political divide. I always laugh at leftists wearing T-shirts with pictures of Che on the front – the same guy who murdered tens of thousands of people.
Psephos,
They didnt come back to you in droves in 1998.
The One Nation fiasco was responsible for the two party preferred facade of increased Labor support (but the One Nation preference issues and HTV cards at the seat level were an absolute fiasco!)
In 96 the ALP got a primary of 38.75 for a TPP of 46.37
In 98 the ALP got a primary of 40.1 for a TPP of 51
On the primaries, Labor only got a 1.35% swing.
But they scored off the One Nation disorganised rabble a tad over 2% on the TPP. But that wasnt a real gain, it was pure luck that came out of One Nation at the party level comprehensively stuffing up their HTV program.
That can be seen at the next election in 2001 were the ALP only achieved a primary of 37.84%. I think One Nation in 1998 caused the ALP to think they were more popular and hooking into the national political zeitgeist far more than they actually were.
No wonder Latham was elected to lead for the 04 election – the 2001 election brought home a big home truth to Labor – they’d been kidding themselves for years over their true level of support and reacted by electing Crean (hoping it was party issues and that he’d clean them up) and then Latham (when they realised it wasnt) through pure desperation.
No 868
Ain’t that the truth.
Night all. I hope Australia hasn’t finished batting when I wake up.
Oh dear, every Liberal in the S.A. parliament who isn’t retiring at the next election has been made a shadow minister. That’s 18 out of 22, who will then fight to be part of the 2018 cabinet:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25806056-5006301,00.html
875
That means their Parliament is probably a bit undersized. Tasmania`s Parliament is definitely undersized.
No 875
Why on earth is there a need for an “assisting shadow for Multicultural Affairs”?
[Why on earth is there a need for an “assisting shadow for Multicultural Affairs”?]
Probably because the Shadow M.A. is the leader, and she needs all the help she can get.
[That means their Parliament is probably a bit undersized. Tasmania`s Parliament is definitely undersized.]
It is stupid. They say they are going to have a cabinet of 12, so they only need 12 shadow ministers, any more is just silly. Some of them are in very marginal seats, so they should be left to try to win their seats.
879
There Parliament is still probably undersized because if you do not have a government backbench that is bigger than the cabinet then the executive or shadow executive dominates too much. The HAT should never have been cut from 35 to 25. The HASA should be probably 10 or 12 seats bigger.
I’ve been away for 48hrs or ? so I’m catching up just now. I got as far as this quote from Glen and I think its worth commenting on.
Mate, good on you for saying it like it is for you. That takes real courage and I for one applaud you for doing it. We don’t agree on much, but hey!
Top marks all round
881
Except for the voting Liberal bit and the Howard deserving a vote bit.
The man is entitled to his opinion just as much as you or I Ttfab
You may not agree with his opinion
I think it’s important he’s allowed to express it
Now stop arguing with me as I have a large # of post’s to read in order to catch up 😉
It just keeps getting better and better for the people of NSW:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/minister-in-hot-water-again-over-mining-grant-20090719-dpkz.html
God help us all.
Plenty of ill-informed comment here on the Jensen preselection farce.
Although it no doubt makes the issue sound more important to suggest it is linked to his views on climate change policy, the truth is rather mundane. It is a simple case of local party infighting. His foes very effectively stacked branches to get their people onto the preselection committee, and voted for their puppet Glenn Piggott. As in 2006, this decision will be overruled by state council and Jensen will keep his job, if for no other reason than that the incumbent would funnel cash through to be used in marginal WA seats, while a new candidate would require cash from the party just to retain Tangney – and cash is one thing the Libs don’t have in WA.
Then there is the fact that Piggott is not a credible candidate, while Jensen (whatever you think of some of his views) has very strong support in his electorate. As some of you have already, Piggott doesn’t doesn’t have a track record of anything, other than anonymity.
No 882
Howard always deserved my vote.
[A Challenge to Climate Change Skeptics
You are eligible for this challenge if:
1. You live in the United States and provide me with your home address and telephone number (I will provide you with mine) and,
2. You are a regular (at least once weekly) contributor to a political, economics or science blog with an Alexa traffic global ranking of 50,000 or lower.
The reason for the latter requirement is because I want to be able to shame/humiliate you if you back out of the challenge or refuse to pay, as I’d assume you’d do the same with me.
The rules of the challenge are as follows:
1. For each day that the high temperature in your hometown is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit above average, as listed by Weather Underground, you owe me $25. For each day that it is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit below average, I owe you $25.
2. The challenge proceeds in monthly intervals, with the first month being August. At the end of each month, we’ll tally up the winning and losing days and the loser writes the winner a check for the balance.
3. The challenge automatically rolls over to the next month until/unless: (i) one party informs the other by the 20th of the previous month that he would like to discontinue the challenge (that is, if you want to discontinue the challenge for September, you’d have to tell me this by August 20th), or (ii) the losing party has failed to pay the winning party in a timely fashion, in which case the challenge may be canceled at the sole discretion of the winning party.]
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/challenge-to-climate-change-skeptics.html
Why does the LNP hate free markets!!!
http://www.drive.com.au/Editorial/ArticleDetail.aspx?ArticleId=64424
No 888
What a waste of bloody time.
Whew! I Was A Bit Worried There Dept. No. #34,231
From Milne’s latest anti-Rudd dummy spit in the OO:
[… barring a miraculous recovery in bilateral relations, there is now no foreseeable way China will be supporting any bid by Australia to become a member of the 10 non-permanent members of the council whose membership is rotated and elected by the UN General Assembly.]
If Milne – Instant Internalional Diplomatic Relations Guru – says it isn’t gonna happen, that practically makes it a certainty. I guess he walked down the corridor and checked with Sheridan after interviewing Hugh White. Glenn wouldn’t want to go out on a limb, now, would he?
No 891
Obviously China cares little for Australia. We are mere “noise” in their view.
# 888
Water, Asprin and Water*3
GP @ 877
Because Labor holds the top 20 seats by % of people who were born overseas or who have parents born overseas? (no 20 was held by Howard until the last election).
[Obviously China cares little for Australia. We are mere “noise” in their view.]
Don’t get too cocky Glen. The Chinese were talking about Turnbull noise and jingoistic journalistic noise (almost all of it based on pure conjecture stiffened up by groupthink), not noise from Rudd, as there was none from Rudd at the time.
For the life of me I can’t believe that the calls for Rudd to start the biffo with the Chinese were, and are serious. It won’t help Hu one iota. No-one – least of all a country with 20 million people talking to one with 1.5 billion people – just “gets on the phone” mano-a-mano and has a case like this resolved in the first week or two. It shows either an outstanding naiveity about how diplomatic relations work or alarming cynicism that Hu’s case could be used to score a point or two in the polls. The noise from Turnbull was more about Turnbull than about Hu’s legal rights. Turnbull (and his pals) knew Rudd couldn’t barge in and start throwing his weight around and they took unfair advantage of that, damaging Hu’s case and embarrassing Australia.
You don’t have to be a diplomatic savant to realise that asserting the automatic innocence of an Australian caught up in a foreign jail and demanding his release isn’t going to get you anywhere with the other side. I doubt whether Papua New Guinea, or even poor Nauru would release anyone under that sort of blustering pressure, much less China. What a ridiculous fool Turnbull has made of himself.
Castle @ 848
Not sure about whether the changes to taxation regimes on fuel would have made any difference to the availability of fuel. I suspect people were not putting aircraft fuel into vehicles, at least not more than perhaps just the once.
A common story about petrol sniffing was that it started with aircraft fuel brought in for the Catalina flying bases on the NT north coast during WW2. I suspect that if the story was not documented at the time it will remain a story.
Ain’t it so
GP @ 891
Why on earth would China think that Australia, which supplies large quantities of iron ore, coal and natural gas to China be ‘noise’?
[Generic Person
Posted Monday, July 20, 2009 at 12:21 am | Permalink
No 882
Howard always deserved my vote.]
It’s amazing, the man who destroyed the Liberal party is their hero.
[It’s amazing, the man who destroyed the Liberal party is their hero.]
Kind of similar to how Labor people idolise Whitlam and (to a lesser extent) Keating.