Newspoll: 55-45

The latest Newspoll survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 55-45, with Malcolm Turnbull enjoying a dead cat bounce on his personal ratings after the disaster of a fortnight ago. Turnbull’s approval rating is up six points to 31 per cent, while his disapproval is down three to 55 per cent. However, Turnbull continues to rate behind Peter Costello (36 per cent) and Joe Hockey (20 per cent) on the question of best person to lead the Liberal Party, with 16 per cent. What’s more, Essential Research finds 46 per cent believe the Liberals should find a new leader against only 29 per cent who want Turnbull remain. Essential Research otherwise shows a modest improvement for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on the “most important action” of the Rudd government so far (action on the global financial crisis leads a crowded field), opinions on the government’s income tax cuts (positive) and a somewhat obscure question on education policy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

763 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  2. Story from the New York Times:

    ‘HONG KONG —The former chairman of China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, the oil refining giant better known as Sinopec, was convicted of corruption by a court in Beijing on Wednesday, according to Xinhua, the official news agency.

    Chen Tonghai, 60, was given a suspended death sentence for taking $28.7 million in bribes, and Xinhua, citing the court ruling, said “all his political rights were deprived for life and all his personal property confiscated.” He is expected to serve a life term in prison.

    Mr. Chen pleaded guilty in the case, paid back the amount of the bribes, and helped prosecutors with other investigations, Xinhua reported.

    China continues to be plagued by high-level cases of misconduct involving business leaders, party bosses and government officials.’

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/16/business/global/16sinopec.html?_r=1&ref=business

  4. Corporate Counsellors in Canberra’s Tony Lamond writes in today’s Crikey:

    ‘The arrest of the Rio Tinto executives is clearly related to the previous intense negotiations on the price of iron ore and the fact that Rio Tinto did not buckle to Chinese steel mill demand for significant price reductions. Now the Chinese mills are refusing to take the iron ore for which they had previously contracted. Rio Tinto is seeking billions in compensation. These contracts are based on a normal “take or pay” concept and reflect the that fact that iron ore producers must invest vast sums in both production capacity, stock piles and shipping capacity to service a contract — and they forgo other sales opportunities once their future production capacity is reached under the contracts negotiated.

    So it is not only the lack of understanding of Western commercial intelligence processes that has lead to China’s irritation, it is their unwillingness to accept that contracts have a de facto force of law — but seeing the legal process in China always “bends” to political guidance there is an unwillingness to accept any enforcement of a contract by an independent authority, e.g.: a Western Court. In the final analysis, China sees “might as right”.

    What we are actually witnessing, in what is an initial small scale skirmish, is the beginning of a long running economic and resource trade conflict — the first economic and resource “shadow war” of the 21st century. If Australia continues with the “Mr Nice Guy” limp-wristed DFAT approach it will simply be stomped on. A hard line by Australia can certainly be expected to result in economic retaliation. It will cost us, but not nearly as much as what we lose in a weakened negotiation position and lower prices over many years. That is the Chinese objective.’

  6. PJ Nichol

    Just flicked through the summary of what looks to be an interesting report.

    Inter alia it noted that the differences in cost between renewables and coal virtually disappeared if the costs of ‘cleaning’ coal are added to the coal costs.

    The AGW costs of coal were not considered? That is, they were defined as an externality?

  8. [Inter alia it noted that the differences in cost between renewables and coal virtually disappeared if the costs of ‘cleaning’ coal are added to the coal costs.]

    While that may be true, you still have a bucketload of coal power stations that would need to be retrofitted anyway as renewables couldnt possibly replace them in any short to medium time frame

  10. Look, I am probably becoming some kind of Kruddy fanboi, but does he know exactly what he is doing, or what?

    I thought his move today was a lesson for all… perfectly delivered, with a gentle reminder that the Chinese have an awful lot at stake in this one, delivered without bluster, and quite politely.

  11. Yay we have full pdf conversion facility.

    Boerwar, the trouble with reports like that is that we cannot take them at face value. Mr Chen may be guilty of a genuine crime, or he may be guilty of doing only what everyone else does but is being pinged for it for political reasons, or the whole thing may be a total fabrication. We have no way of knowing because China does not have an independent judiciary or a free press. The same is true of Stern Hu.

  12. NEWSFLASH:
    In relation to the lack of warning on the earthquake and tsunami, the Leader of the Federal Opposition, Malcolm Turnbull, has apologised, on behalf of all Australians, to the people of New Zealand and Victoria. “One phone call was all it needed , Kevin Rudd – why did you let us all down?”. The Shadow Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop, is looking into the matter.
    END OF NEWSFLASH.

  14. NEWSFLASH:
    Julie Bishop, Liberal Deputy Leader, has tonight told reporters that if the tsunami expected to hit the East Coast around 10pm does not eventuate, that “this will be another example of Labor grandstanding, making a catastrophe out of nothing for partisan political purposes.” In the event a tsunami does occur Ms. Bishop promised that the Opposition would be “closely monitoring” all relief works to ensure that “pork-barrelling between Labor and their mates in the CFMEU does not replace reasoned infrastructure rebuilding.” She continued, “Australians are sick to death of the rampant cronyism that has characterized this government.”

    Elsewhere, Tony Abbott, whose electorate is in a Sydney coastal area, said he was toxically bored with the whole thing.

  20. NSW 28 defeat QLD 16

    What a game! Boy oh boy, Mexicans, now that’s a body contact sport. And it’s the only part of the game that Rupert dosen’t own. 🙂

  21. [Mr Costello cautioned against reading anything into the fact that the deadline for nominations for Higgins had been extended by a month to July 30.]

    Turnbull must be wondering where a wooden stake is when you need one.

  25. Diog,

    [England all-rounder Andrew Flintoff has announced he will retire from Test cricket at the conclusion of the current Ashes series against Australia.

    The announcement came a day before the start of the second Test and after the 31-year-old aggravated a knee injury during the drawn first Test against Australia.]

    [Flintoff has been, according to the UK press, for us. a savior; for us: a dud]

    Hopefully, theECB will be so distraught that they will continue to select him in this series.

  26. “At what?”

    Now that’s a real game for men. Not like the one where you see blokes like Sam Newman wearing a fairy costume and Warwick Capper in pink tight shorts. 😈

  28. Dario 558

    I agree that is a serious problem but in fact it looks very doubtfull that Clean Coal technology, even if it works, can be retrofitted to existign coal plants. It changes the thermodynamics of the cooling process completely. Its really only practical for new plants. So we need to start building alternatives fast.

    Plus coal power plants don’t last forever. They wear out. So they all have to be replaced eventually anyway. In fact, two of the worst brown coal plants in Victoria are pretty much beyond their economic life anyway. So survivial-of-the-planet nazis like myself are not being inreasonable arguing they should be shut down. Even without CC they’d be on their way out.

  30. [Look, I am probably becoming some kind of Kruddy fanboi]

    Don’t worry, you’re just becoming a part of the ghastly Pollbludger clique 🙂

  36. [Abuse of women is not funny]

    I’m sure it’s not intended to be funny. I believe it’s done for team bonding, which is a very serious business. They can’t actually have sex with each other (not when anyone’s watching anyway), but mass porking of unconscious women is the next best thing. AFL teams get the same result by jumping off piers into freezing water. It’s a Sydney/Melbourne cultural difference, I guess.

  37. I think the main difference between League and Union is that at the Rugby you get abused by a better class of drunk. A bit like a Carlton game.

  40. [I think the main difference between League and Union is that at the Rugby you get abused by a better class of drunk.]

    Um, I thought League and Union were *both* kinds of Rugby, only with different sets of rules. Am I still not getting this right?

  42. I think you are right – Rugby League and Rugby Union are both kinds of Rugby, but I recall hearing people refer to Union as “the Rugby”. Apology if I am wrong.

  43. I think after tonight it can’t be questioned that Rugby League is without doubt THE toughest body contact sport in the world. Those hits, on almost every tackle were bone shattering. These blokes do not wear any of the padding that they do in American football. We gave those QLDers a good spanking tonight. 😀

  45. We gave those QLDers a good spanking tonight.

    As Psephos hinted, that seems to be a pretty strong desire of all those involved in the sport.

  46. Union and League are roughly the same. At some point it comes down to parting the buttocks and shoving the head up. However, only Union has the rolling maul, which really does look like cross-country bum sniffing.

  47. Thanks Antony, I knew you’d be across the finer points.

    I did go to a rugby game once, in 1971 when we were trying to stop the Springboks tour. A police horse trod on my foot and I retired hurt.

  48. Socrates, Rugby is 15-a-side game and until the 90’s was non-professional. Rugby League is a 13-a-side game and has always been professional. I grew up with Rugby. A definition to help you – “Rugby League is a thug’s game played by thugs whilst Rugby is a gentleman’s game played by thugs”

  49. Gusface!! “28 july will go down in infamy”

    That has happen already has for that was the day the one and only Mexicanbeemer entered the world!!

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